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MOSCOW -- Saturday's protest was doubly impressive in that so many could have made excuses not to show. It was snowing, it was bone-chillingly cold, and it was the beginning of the Russian holiday season. Anywhere from 50,000 to 100,000 people, by my guess, filled up Avenue Prof. (Andrei) Sakharov (the USSR's once infamous dissident) in Moscow and it must have signaled to the Kremlin "observers," hiding behind tinted glass in four-wheel drive vehicles beyond the police barriers, that the unprecedented protest two weeks earlier had been no fluke.
But where does it go from here? Will this protest movement -- marked so far by restraint, humor and non-violence -- turn a Russian winter into a "Russian Spring"?
There are already ominous signs.
Alexander Aleshkin / Getty Images
Demonstrators take part in a mass anti-Putin rally on Saturday in Moscow.
Alexei Navalny, a passionate orator who until recently was known only to social networkers as an anti-corruption blogger, is quickly emerging as the new face of the anti-Vladimir Putin opposition. He roused the crowd on Saturday, declaring that if the movement weren't peaceful it could easily have taken over the Kremlin with the Russian crowd at hand. But, he warned, that could change if Putin connived to steal the NEXT presidential election, in March. "If these crooks and thieves go on cheating us, if they continue telling lies and stealing from us, we will take what belongs to us with our own hands.''
This wasn't just crowd-pleasing rhetoric coming from an aspiring leader. Many protesters, like 30-year-old Vasily Gnuchev, a normally quiet, self-employed architect, see red when faced with the possibility, even likelihood, that Prime Minster Vladimir Putin will not only win the presidency but rule for yet another two six-year terms.
"It's absolutely unacceptable that the man who's in power [already] for 12 years will be here for 12 years more!," Vasily spurted out in a rented apartment in dire need of repairs, literally red with anger. "We don't want another revolution, or bloodshed, but if Putin is going to win then there may be a "Russian Spring -- not an Arab Spring but a Russian one."
Putin, after the initial shock of barely scraping by in the parliamentary elections of Dec. 4, said nothing about the protests for a week, then treated them with contempt. He finally realized he had to engage, and (through the usual conduit of Russian President cum Putin spokesman Dmitri Medvedev) announced on Thursday a set of positive political reforms, none of which would take effect until the next cycle, in six years.
Which makes Vasily see red ... again. ''We don't have six years to wait. And we know what will come of it in six years. It will be blah- blah-blah and nothing else!'
Some of my Russian analyst friends in Moscow are quick to point out that Russia is not the Middle East. That the Arab Spring happened to dictatorships based on violence and repression. And that Russia -- with all of its abuses -- is still an open society with a market economy and that the "Freedom Genie" can never be put back into the bottle.
Fyodor Lukyanov is one of President Medvedev's advisers on human rights who took the courageous step this week of calling for the annulment and repeat of the Dec. 4 parliamentary elections. He believes the only way Putin can win back his popularity is by running a squeaky clean and transparent campaign for president.
"Putin may go to a second round -- that's OK, he can still beat any of the contenders in the second round,'' says Lukyanov. ''And he will have his legitimacy back -- maybe not in the amount he had 10 years ago, but a big part of the population believes that Putin is much better than anybody else.''
For many protesters, the animosity goes way beyond Putin the candidate. Vasily's father, Fyodor, now 50, says he watched in shock as the Soviet Union fell 20 years ago, then in horror as Russia passed, rudderless, through a decade of economic collapse and war. And then came Putin. Stability. Prosperity. "All over the country there was a scream of joy when we got rid of this alcoholic, Yeltsin. We finally saw a man who was sane, who was physically fit, and he wasn't reading from his notes," recalled the older Gnuchev.
His son Vasily says he was too young to remember the bad old days of democratic Russia. But he prospered under Putin, and always felt free. And that's the real problem. The Putin regime's reportedly widespread electoral fraud pulled the rug from under a whole generation who believed in their leader, who believed in Putinism. "Now we see that everything is a lie," Vasily explained. "The Kremlin just stole our votes -- it's just incompatible with the picture of the world we grew up in."
It's that humiliation -- indeed, violation -- mixed with anger that seems to drive many Russian, middle-class protesters into the streets -- even when the elements are conspiring against them -- and will keep the pressure on Putin, with promises of more protests to come. But what if this "people power" movement really blossoms, only to be thwarted yet again, not in a free and fair election come March, but by another brazen, Putin-led ploy to retain power?
Lukyanov admits he's "cautiously pessimistic." "Unfortunately," he told me, "Russian and Soviet and pre-Soviet history shows us that those in power are capable of making almost any mistakes and stupidities."
On the one hand, "Russian people" determined to take back the country they feel they've lost, and on the other, "Russian power" equally determined to hold onto it. What's next? "It's absolutely impossible to predict the course of events in 2012," offered Lukyanov.
Whatever happens, those two driving forces of 2012 look to be on a collision course.
Jim Maceda is an NBC News correspondent based in London who has covered the Soviet Union and Russia since the 1980s.
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Love putin or hate him, he is a interesting person. I first worried he might send in police/army to quell the protest if pushed to far. Then watching him make statements, I think he was hoping it would fade away. He is a little silent watching. Russia is a large country with many different points of view from region to region. With proposed reforms tossed out, he is seeing/looking for what will work. He is a clever fox.
My guess is some time in the next 2 weeks, he will do something along the lines of;
1. play the OMG card, saying some places the elections were not fair and for the sake of the "mother land", new elections are needed. or;
2. In some way he will toss the united russia party under the bus, trying to form a new party drawing many of the protestors into it. Or;
3. He will just surprise me doing nothing more than he just did.
No matter what, the next few weeks will be interesting to watch.
Sadly, the Kremlin will just toss a few protesters under the bus and several of the better known dissidents will either be persuaded to go along with the vague promise of reforms some time in the future, or will simply disappear. Putin will do what the Kremlin has always done - maintain power and crush any opposition.
No I do not think so. That was proven when the old lady stood in front of the tanks and said no to the Army and the police, when the party tried to oust Gobbachev. The Army did not fire on them. No the Russian people love there freedom and will fight for it. I wonder if the American people do chairish freedom as much. I think not. When the Well-Street protest turned violent and the police begain to rap some heads with night sticks. And many Americans thought that was good for them. D-- protesters!
People around the world are no longer willing to have a ring placed in their noses and be led around by the nose to wherever they are led. As they are becoming more educated and informed and more connected via the internet, they are realizing that they have been lied to for a very long time.
One of Putin's former subordinates who was speaking out against Putin was lured to a meeting in a restaurant where a small amount of Plutonium was slipped into his cup of tea. It took several days for him to die in the hospital. We should always remember this when discussions of Putin take place.
russ-1704781 & Joe M. 294004 do make intresting coments. I worry about family in this part of the world. To speak out against putin is not healthy. He is old school kgb. Do not under estimate him. He made the economy better, increased pentions, made gazprom a strong weapon and gave pride back for all to say they are russian. Did Putin do all these things in a good and honest way?....................HET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To Russ-1704781, Putin is not a drunk Yeltsin. He is not a foolish man as gorbachev. He has you watching the left hand as the right hand does the job. This is not the same army as the past. He has made it smaller and more efficient. They are now the professional soldier. If this army is called against the people, I do not know what they will do. This is what scares me. In moscow, who will trust police?
As I said, he is a clever fox. Today he has nothing to fear from the protestors. As a fox, he sits and waits for opportunity. He does not care or plan action. He only needs to wait for others to be foolish.The next weeks will be interesting to watch.
Pay no attentention to the man behind the curtain, for I am the great and powerful OZ.
Maybe are CONGRESS should learn from whats happing in RUSSIA the peple here in AMERICA had enough of are crooks in CONGRESS , their self interest and special interest groups in CONGRESS . Soon the people here in AMERICA can start a movement coming soon if are GOVERMENT don,t get it,s act together soon and act like the goverment that serves the people and not THEM .
Is it just me or is the "We the People want our country back" theme playing out everywhere? I believe 2012 will see chaos reign globally and it will continue for some time to come. Get ready to be transitioned into the new Global Government.
Doc, Agenda 21 is coming as planned... and I'm afraid there's not much we can do about it!
Agenda 21 is a comprehensive plan of action to be taken globally, nationally and locally by organizations of the United Nations System, Governments, and Major Groups in every area in which human impacts on the environment.
Many feel Agenda 21's real purpose will ultimately reduce individual liberties and create one World Government!
And I think all you nut's have been listen to Jesse Venture. You are a dime a dozen.
What about PLan 9, from outer space? LMAO
D. R. "Doc" Smith
ye're right, my friend. 12th will be very curious phase 4 entire World. Anyway, my the best wishes to you.
The Russian people should all stay home sick at the same time. Maybe then Putin can see everyone doesn't love him?
Still relevant.
My support - as a Russian citizen - for Putin is strong, and I have a few comments for the American reader, to illustrate the point of view of an average Russian not prone to going into the streets.
1) U.S. Ambassador McFall, recently appointed to Moscow, is a well-known organizer and agitator for the so-called color revolutions, such as the one that had taken place in Ukraine. It is certain that he is playing a major role behind the scenes in this highly orchestrated series of protests.
2) Like Putin or not, he brought stability to Russia, and another 12 years of stability will lead Russia to a world-power status. For some people in the shadowy circles of power - including those in the West - Russia as a world power would mean incessant nightmares and their nefarious agenda thwarted.
3) There is absolutely no hard evidence of election fraud. The fact that MSNBC prints it is not proof. The proof is obtained through the courts. Saying "all are corrupt, including the courts - let's throw them all out", reminds me of a call to topple the government - high treason under Russian and American law. Care should be exercised by speakers - including the movement poster child Navalny - that his rhetoric does not go foul of the law.
4) And finally, the Russian Orthodox Church has called for peaceful calm and against any sort of color revolution. If there are some violations of the electoral law, let them work their way through the courts. This series of marches and demonstrations are nothing else but an attempt to topple Russia's legal government and usher in yet another destructive, anti-Russian regime to finish Russia off.
We do see that. And I wish our American friends would also see that en masse.
I hope you print it, MSNBC.
Election fraud is documented multiple times. It is on youtube, for God's sake. Everyone can see stuffed ballots, buses with hired "citizen" going in circles from one voting place to another, people in partu uniforms on the day of elections which has been prohibited by the "law". So, AntonGolovin, you are lying. Shame on you.
People in the USA are able to continually "overthrow" the government every time they go into the voting booth. In this way the revolution of 1776 continually renews itself and it can be said that the USA is the most revolutionary country in the world today. In Russia the revolution was not allowed to continue after 1917. It became frozen in time under the Bolsheviks so that the Bolsheviks could keep their jobs and their positions of priviledge. And so the Russian people's progress was stopped after 1917. The Russian people want to progress again and this is what they demand - to continue the revolutionary "overthrow" of their government whenever the people choose for it to happen.
And so the names and faces in American government continually change. Only the Constitution remains at the center of government and the people can decide to improve even the Constitution because the Constitution says they have that power.
Mike-RH40, Youtube is not a judge's opinion. If you think there is election fraud, go to the courts. If you advocate overthrow of the government - hence high treason - I think the Russian people are entitled to defend their country against Ambassador McFall and his legions of dollar-oiled operatives.
Joe-M, I am in favor of facts, not theory, and facts say that both U.S. political parties are financed pretty much by the same companies, so the people of the United States themselves find themselves choosing from among two candidates who already sold them out to the highest bidder. Russia is a lot more honest in this regard. The man in charge is visible, not behind the scenes.
Hopefully they don't reach the critical mass of mental disability that pervades the OWS protesters in this country. I believe OWS participants were either stillborn babies that began brain function 72 hours later or they survived the abortions that were meant to kill them and they crawled out of the garbage bag they were in.
How much the 1% paying you for each comment? Russians will do good and so will OWS.
Kyle you are a fuk and based on your other comments, I wish nothing but misery for you and your worthless family
Russians have fought too hard and suffered too long to again be ruled by a dictatorship. They want what we want, what most people want, free and fair elections and term limits. Mr Putin do the right thing and retire with dignity. Let democracy flourish in your homeland.
A resurgent Russia under another 12 years of Putin rule will get stronger and stronger.
When a strong Russia emerges, west will shiver.
Russian people regret the demise of Soviet Union, and want Putin to bring Russia back to the glory days of USSR. The bulk of Russia couldn't care less for this democracy and freedom crap.
Well put Mike.
One thing to remember Mr Putin is very well liked in the outer towns and villages of this vast country that crosses 7 time zones. We only see what is going on Moscow and the other big cities. Now if the elections are fare and proven that they are then the people of Russia have spoken and the opposition will have to live with it. There Constitution is set for now. Putin has the right to do like he is doing. Now if this is not legal then it is a different ballgame and the Russia people will have to deal with it. It could get nasty. But the people of Russia are well educated and will do what is in there best intrest. I wish the very best.
Russians don't want Putin. He's got to accept it and retire from the presidency forever. Russians are a strongly determined people able to take tremendous amounts of sacrifice and loss (including human sacrifice) and will not back down whatever the cost. If Putin loves his country he will accept the will of its people, instead of killing them.
Putin needs to show up on National TV one more time and tell Russians he heard them and is gone.
I'll hand it to the Russians....they love a little civil volatility. Should be interesting to see which way Putin goes with it.
The Occupy Movement goes to Russia!
Keep protesting, they're fueling up the tanks. Wait for it.
imho --- i believe your comment. putin because of his kgb background is a monster in disguise and will murder to hold on to power. he's done it in the past and will do it again.
What's next? Probably a few decades in Siberia for all of them. You know, a knock in the night, a long train ride.
Can you even imagine what it would take in THIS country for that many Americans to gather and protest?
Bailing out the banks and Wall Street didn't do it. Behold the power of complacent consumerism!
What is next for the protesters will be horrific deaths;from trump up charges where you die while questioning to conscription to fight some "needed" war & the draft process is slanted to draft those who protested, had a mindset similar to the protesters, went to the same schools as the protesters, lived on the same block as the protesters, or had sympathetic thoughts for the protesters--death. Russia is not the land of subtlety. If you blink while plegdge allegiance to Vlad the Impaler Putin, you're going to get it.
Then we'll see some doctored photos showing the diminutive Putin as some explorer in the wilds of the world sas a shirt and his love handles. The comedic factor of those pics are worth it to many!
just remember russia is not america....