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Subscribe to RSSIran warned U.S. aircraft carrier Stennis not to return to the Persian Gulf, but U.S. officials rejected the threat. NBC's Jim Miklaszewski has more.
Should the United States blink with Iran? Tehran has warned Washington against returning an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. The White House contends Tehran’s threat is just an attempt to deflect attention from the Islamic republic’s domestic problems and says the Navy will continue operations in the Gulf.
What happens next?
We turned to Graham T. Allison, a leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy in nuclear weapons and terrorism at Harvard, and Qamar-ul Huda, a scholar of Islam and theology, from the U.S. Institute of Peace. In emails to msnbc.com, they shared some thoughts on Iran's war of words -- and the possibility of an escalation.
Belfer Center
Graham T. Allison of the Belfer Center.
Iran has threatened to take military action if the U.S. keeps sending aircraft carriers into the Gulf. What is the probability Iran would make good on its threat?
ALLISON: Low. Iran must be aware that the U.S. will continue to send aircraft carriers into international waters regardless of Iranian threats, and that any direct military confrontation would not end well for Tehran. However, we face the risk of unauthorized or low-level skirmishes between U.S. and Iranian naval forces escalating into a broader conflict.
HUDA: In March 2007, Iran captured 15 British sailors and marines from the Strait of Hormuz, and the government allowed the British embassy to be ransacked by protesters. Since the November 2011 United Nations report found that Iran has worked and may be working on attaining nuclear weapons, the United States and its allies are pressing harder to enforce sanctions against Iran. Essentially, relations with Iran have gone from bad to worse in a matter of five months.
Courtesy Qamar-ul Huda
Qamar-ul Huda of the U.S. Institute of Peace.
If the recent past is any indicator of events, Iran's threats must be taken seriously. A military attack by Iran against the U.S. would have a devastating strategic consequence for Iran. About less than 25 percent of U.S. imported oil comes from the Gulf region; however, China's oil supplies would be significantly threatened by a military conflict.
Iran's threats are not only directed at the U.S., but to the already unstable global economy. With the uncertainty of EU financial industry and U.S.'s weak economy, Iran is using this moment to test Western interests in the region.
What does Iran have to gain from a military confrontation with the U.S.?
ALLISON: It is certainly not in the rational self-interest of the Iranian state to provoke a confrontation with America, whose military dwarfs that of Iran. However, it is likely that certain elements within the regime would welcome such a confrontation, as they feel that American military action could bolster support for their government and distract the Iranian people from growing economic problems.
HUDA: Iran's military confrontation with the U.S. allows them to rein in dissenters, reformers and liberals, and embolden the power of the hardliners in Iran, namely the Revolutionary Guard institutions. Iranian hardliners welcome an escalation of conflict with the U.S. and the West because it allows them to consolidate their internal power. The elite of hardliners are still from the 1979 revolution period, and they understand that an anti-Western narrative is their core asset. With the recent shooting down of a U.S. spy drone near the Iran-Afghanistan border, and the capture of an [alleged] Afghan-American spy in Iran, Iranian hardliners in the government are trying to deflect the nuclear issue and simultaneously make a case of preventing a U.S.-led confrontation. Internally, Iran is using recent political events, including the Arab Spring protests, as justification to defend national sovereignty.
Iran has purchased from the Chinese and Russians sophisticated midget submarines, mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, and a fleet of small fast boats capable of naval warfare. Knowing their asymmetric military power, and visible soft power in the Middle East, Iran will promptly leverage their power against Western interests.
What does the U.S. have to gain from a military confrontation with Iran?
ALLISON: Although some argue that U.S. military action against Iran would be a relatively painless way to delay its nuclear program and maybe even inspire a popular uprising, my best judgment is that an attack is as likely to advance the date on which Iran tests a bomb as to delay it. A military confrontation with Iran would also overturn the chessboard in the Middle East, making America (and Israel) the issue for most of the people in the street and risk retaliation that could bring about a wider regional war.
HUDA: The U.S. maintains that their military exercises are according to international maritime conventions and for the security of the region. By moving forward to counteract Iranian threats, the U.S. reassures their allies of their commitment to the region, and more importantly, it bolsters the U.S.-Gulf states alliance of limiting Iranian aggression. While a military escalation with Iran will lead to a deeper cold war with Iran, there is no other way to ensure that Iran will draw back.
Allison is the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard's John F. Kennedy Center of Government. For three decades, he has been a leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy with a special interest in nuclear weapons, terrorism and decision-making. He served as assistant secretary for The U.S. Department of Defense in the first Clinton Administration.
Huda is a senior program officer in the Religion and Peacemaking Center and scholar of Islam at U.S. Institute of Peace. He teaches conflict resolution, Islamic theology, Islam and Western studies at Georgetown University.
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You realize that the nuclear plant at Bushehr is right on the coast. Too easy a target? Whats up with that?
A lot of nuke plants need water to transfer the the heat those things generate...A lot of our nuke plants are near some body of water as well...But yes; a VERY easy and lucrative target...
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I'm sick of our country throwing around blanket statements until it becomes so firmly cemented that no one even bothers to question their claims. Statements like "A threat to the security of the region" or "A threat to the security and stability of the free world". Iran is NOT a threat to anyone or any country! Yes they are working on a bomb but it is for national defense. There's not enough spaced here into making a case for an Iranian nuke bomb but they have a legitimate right! I do not like the idea of nuclear proliferation either but if a country has legitimate grounds for obtaining it for natiotional security then America should mind their business! Case in point Pakistan. Pakistan was never and is not now a threat to America but because they were under nuclear threat from India it was absoluteley imperative that they obtain the bomb. We need to worry about our problems here. The government of Iran may be corrupt and heavy handed but they would never use nukes against israel or US cause' they know that would warrant a nuke counter attack! Grow up you bitches and lets take care of home first!
I find your logic to be utterly ridiculous. Do you really think that the radicals who regularly send human beings out to blow themselves up in the midst of crowds for the sake of Alla will not hesitate to lob a bomb at Israel or the U.S. or any other country who does not have the same belief structure as Iran. If you do, then I feel really sorry for you. Your logic was the same logic that was used in WWII as the Third Reich began to build its military capability. 47 million soldiers and civilians lost their lives because the U.S. and Europe thought the same way as you do. History never lies, and if you ignore history, you are going to repeat it. Wake up Clown. Your assumptions are pathetic.
"Will Iran make good on its threat against US?"
They can try it...ONE TIME.
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NO-not with two aircraft carrier coming in-160 some bad ass jets with bomb that have pin point hitting target plus or cruise missles.They might run thier little speed boats around the fleet or maybe threw them to see if America would shoot it.
Just because a carrier left the gulf doesn't mean that the two Los Angeles class subs and one Seawolf class sub aren't still in the gulf each outfitted with a complement of Tomahawk cruise missiles...
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CBS news said tonight that the carrier that was in the region is coming home but two more are enroute. Uh OH
I drink your Milkshake!
Iran would think GOD struck them if America really gives the some heavy punches,no half ass crap-kick them in ass their their breath smells like boot leather...
Obama said Iran is just a tiny little country...so whats the prob.
Your local high school football team would stand a better chance of defeating LSU in the National title game next week.
repost
when our carrier enters the straits, the Iranian people should just pull out their prayer rugs, face the east and pray their leaders find a shred of sense or think of ways to make glass art.
This is what we call a nuclear arms reduction opportunity. Watch "Deterrence" if you need a primer on meaning.
If we did bomb that plant, I wonder how much contamination will enter the gulf and straight. Maybe another way to get other nations in the region pissed at us? Just saying. That plant is operational, but I'm not a nuclear wiz kid.
Leave the plant on the coast, and roast the rest that are inland, and the one's underground.
This time, can we just bomb the @!$%# out of them and not rebuild the country?
I am gonna make a prediction. at least a few Americans are going to get killed because of all this stupidity by the iranian nutcases. But there will be ALOT more dead iranians when it is all said and done. Nothing good about dead people anywhere. but better them than us.
If Dick Cheney was still "in power" we would have shelled them and created the second "shock and awe" already. Stay the hell out of Iran, if the sanctions are working. let 'em work!
forget about bombing the nuke plants...they would just move them somewhere else.....if you want to hurt Iran...bomb there desalinization plants...Iran gets a large portion of there water from them....start taking out sources of water and the Iranian people will revolt againts there government the people could live without a nuclear program but they can't live without water.
I'm sure all targets, desalinization plants and nuclear facilities, are already stored in the targeting computers of missiles and smart bombs.
US technically has not won a war since WWII.
1. Korean War - US never won, it is still on.
2. Vietnam War - You know how it ended.
3. Iraq War - Once a mad man will call it a victory.
4. Afghanistan - It is a shame that a 4/5/6 world country is holding 100k of our men for the last 10 years.
So what makes anyone think US will win against Iran.
I don't think they want to win. Just give a little woopass. Same as a bully would be delt with.
Maybe they can save face by saying they meant only the Stennis! Any other carrier or warship is more than welcome!
So if Iran would attack the aircraft carrier and sink it .Then what??
pwd...toast them
Where is the Enola Gay when we need her? And, where are our leaders that have the balls to use her?
As one said, if and when Iran gets the nukes, then, we have a much larger probelm.
It is time we realize just who is our allies. O
Our Defense Department is supposed to be for DEFENSE.
Not the Stumble Into Another War Department.
ANOTHER unnecessary war? Like Iraq?!!
What good are you, Defense Department? You don't protect us, you GIVE us war.
And on 9/11? You failed, failed, failed. What good are you?
DEFENSE Department? You clods should be retired and NOT into some sweet lobbyist job (which is where you generals ever seem to go).
Defense Department? You are like that kid on the block that can never stay out of trouble - GET OUTTA HERE!
Why do we need to stumble into another war?!!!
I think the very best the US (especially the American people) can do is let the Iranian government, and the US government, know that any attack on our military (i.e naval vessels) for any reason what so ever will and/or should bring about the complete annihilation of their military, aka Revolutionary Guard.
I know that the only reason the so called hardliners in that government are able to impose their will over the Iranian people is because... of the Revolutionary Guard... No revolutionary guard, no stick with which to lord over their people.
Most wars have a one bomb solution until the politicians step in.
I say bring it on Iran. Shoot at one of our ships and see what happens. You need a new bunch in charge over there if you are foolish enough to think you can bluff your way through. You will get your As% kicked and your head will be handed to you on a plate.
I don’t know the Iran’s mental set, but I know it’s different that the values of westerners.
It’s normal and customary for a middle easterner to lie to another person with a straight face even when both know it a lie. Political leaders and business men lie, mislead and fail even the most basic (western) sense of civility. It’s not a “lie” to them, it a negating position! If you’re stupid enough to believe them, it’s your fault, not theirs. I don’t accept this method of dealing; it’s just the facts of live in the Middle East.
All the saber rattling about closing the straight is just that. These guys are playing to an internal audience. The concern for me is that not all line military guys are always fully under some sane (or semi-sane) leadership control.
What will start a shooting war is one Iranian 1st lieutenant getting trigger happy or misreading some order while under pressure.
If you add their new direct threat to the continuing threat of them developing and exporting nuclear terror, we should proceeded immediately in destroying their Navy, Air Force and the industrial complex they use to build and design missiles. Foremost, any facility capable of contributing to the design, manufacturing or deployment of anything containing sub atomic particles should be turned into dust. We should not ask permission or seek support from any other nation to do this. Do it now. We should also blockade everything going and coming from Iran including their oil. It is about time we sop being beholden to the Big oil Company interest and the Religious Extremist, one of greed and one of just plane foolishness.