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David Guttenfelder / AP
Ryu Kum Chol, deputy director of space exploration in the Department of Space Technology of North Korea, speaks to the international media in Pyongyang, North Korea on Tuesday.
PYONGYANG – Officials from North Korea’s Space Technology Committee held a special press conference for journalists today in the capital, Pyongyang. Among the topics discussed: Ongoing questions regarding the possible arming of North Korea’s rockets and the country’s new five-year plan for space.
NBC News sat down after with 22-year NASA veteran and NBC Space Consultant James Oberg to talk about what we learned from this press conference and what questions remain.
Q: What questions did you have coming into this press conference with the North Korea Space Technology Committee?
A: Perhaps the most interesting one for me was how soon after launch they’ll have success or failure in the form of a radio signal from the satellite. The North Koreans said they couldn’t answer that one.
That puzzled me because the primary responsibility of flight control is knowing when to expect indicators of success or failure like receiving a radio signal. Maybe they were just officials and not workers who care about the details.
The other burning question for me was when the satellite was actually going to be loaded onto the rocket and what else might be underneath the payload shroud [nose cone of the rocket]. What they’ve told us about the payload is only about 25 percent of what we think a rocket can actually carry.
They’ve pulled back so much of the secrecy – which is nice – that leaving this one area of secrecy almost underscores the mystery: Is there anything else under that nose cone.
Q: Did you have these questions answered?
A: They gave me answers, but the easy proof for their answers, which would be pictures of them loading the satellite, we haven’t seen. I didn’t ask today, but I want to ask for the drawings of the satellite in orbit to see how the solar panels on the satellite unfold or if they do at all.
In regards to the timing of the radio signal and how other radio amateurs around the planet could help detect these signals, they said they would answer tomorrow [North Korean officials told journalists they would be able to visit the Payload Control Center in Pyongyang Wednesday].
I didn’t expect any usable answers, so I didn’t bother to ask about the possible military value of the rocket, but many journalists did.
The only thing we found out from the North Korean answers was how sloppy and unconvincing their protestations of innocence were. It doesn’t make them guilty of having a weapons-related intent, but they missed the opportunity to convincingly refute that global concern.
North Korean space officials say they will go along with a planned rocket launch this week. NBC's Richard Engel reports.
NBC's Richard Engel answers reader questions from North Korea
Q: If you were a North Korean official today, how would you have handled the outside suspicion of this satellite launch actually being a ballistic test?
A: I would have anticipated exactly that question and prepared an answer that was credible to skeptical experts instead of to their obedient public. For me credible is not just 90 percent transparency, but 100 percent.
The persistence of non-transparent aspects of this launch process seems unnecessary if there is nothing to hide. All it does is fan suspicions rather than soothing them.
Q: Anything surprising or big revelations for you from this press conference?
A: No technical surprises for me. But I was dismayed that when confronted with questions regarding previous satellite launch failures, their officials loyally proclaimed they were successful despite all independent evidence to the contrary. The officials had a chance to walk away from the question, but instead twice confronted it with assertions that the rest of the world’s space experts consider false.
NBC's Richard Engel visits a state-run apple orchard, a breeding house for turtles and an apple juice factory.
In my mind this is no way to encourage trust. As someone who is here to judge the credibility of the North Korean’s statements, I was ready to look forward and not back at previously discredited propaganda claims. But they just couldn’t let them go and so it weighed heavily in my own assessment of their credibility and in any future statements they make without strong evidence.
The other big revelation for me was that the North Koreans said they are planning to work on a more sharp-eyed earth observation satellite next.
Q: Let’s talk about that. The North Koreans announced a new five-year plan that included, as you said, an improved observation satellite and also a stunning declaration that they were actually developing a larger rocket. What did you make of these new announcements and how important are they?
A: They gave a plausible explanation for their focus on earth observation satellites, which was due to a series of environmental disasters beginning in the mid-1990s. But this first satellite seems almost too little, too late to be of much help when one considers you can get the same data this satellite could provide for cheaper and sooner from commercial services.
The larger rocket is also consistent with their announced intention to launch satellites for other countries. Rocket launch services are one of the few things North Korea can export that the rest of the world wants. Unfortunately, the Russians already dominate that portion of the space market and they won’t likely yield customers easily.
As for the military threat of any of North Korea’s rockets, including this hypothetical new one, you have to realize that even having only a handful of weaponized versions of these rockets would be intolerable to other countries like the United States.
But in defense of the North Korean’s current rocket, they have spelled out characteristics that a non-threatening rocket should have. Now they have to live up to those standards that they themselves have set.
Q: Is this particular mission a logical step for a first satellite?
A: I’ve come to realize that it is. The North Koreans have given a reasonable justification for the kind of mission they say this satellite is performing. They are still building a rocket that seems bigger than they need and are spending more time and effort than if they had sought outside help, but their governmental ideology has once again trumped practicality.
We’re still not sure if this launch isn’t doing other undisclosed experiments, including those associated with future weaponization and they have not provided enough transparency to eliminate that possibility.
Q: In our previous discussion after you visited the Sohae launch site, you expressed reservations about the authenticity of the satellite. Does this press conference change any of your views on the matter?
A: The press conference not so much, but I’ve done some online research and consultations with associates around the world and I’m now satisfied that what they showed us is within the realm of possibility of a plausible design.
My other concern about the late installment of the satellite onto the rocket was directly addressed with an entirely plausible answer: They didn’t even realize they were out of step with standard practice. They simply did not how other space agencies schedule that type of installation. When the North Koreans say they didn’t realize how other countries did it, I can believe it.
Q: Have the North Korean’s explanation about the peaceful application of the satellite changed your view about the potential weaponization of this missile?
A: No, just carrying a peaceful satellite does not negate the weaponization potential of the carrier rocket. They seem to think that having a peaceful satellite makes them immune to all charges of weaponization, but it doesn’t. The rocket science says this booster design retains weapons potential regardless of what you put on top of it.
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Follow us on Twitter: @msnbc_world
Leave a Comment:
This all proves that the North Korean officials are just liars. And bad ones, at that. They'd better have something better to fall back on than being professional poker players when their lousy regime collapses.
I seriously doubt there's any institution in North Korea other than the army with the technology or resources to build and launch a satellite. If there is a satellite on the missile (still not confirmed by any means), I fully expect it to be used for military purposes.
The bright side is that any satellite they attempt to launch is probably going to fail anyway. The North Koreans have very primitive electronics technology and haven't benefitted from the technology sharing within the greater international community (recall the part of this article about the NK's having no idea how other countries go about loading their rockets). There are a thousand things that could go wrong that they probably haven't even considered because their scientists, like their citizens, live in an isolated militarized bubble...
Maybe we should schedule an anti-missile missile test for the same time as their launch? Assuming this one doesn't fall into the ocean like the rest.
North Korean officials are as good liars as the Bush Administration was. Yes the UN can see holes in the story told by North Korea but they might just go the way the US did and just do what they want. America illegally invaded Iraq for oil even when everyone knew their were no WMD's. The Mushroom Cloud story didn't fly and finally it came to Iraq Freedom. The lie worked so well in the USA that even after both Cheney and Bush admitted oops it was a lie, Americans still believe the story of WMD's, Mushroom Cloud and Iraq Freedom. America ended our Space Program because of the Recession and now we have to look to Russia or China. Along comes North Korean officials with what they call their Space Technology Program and wow US call them liars and really shouldn't be involved in this area. As the US Government is taken over by Banks/Corporations/Billionaires and Wall Street there is no need for Space programs as the mission is getting Americans back to the 20's when people have no rights but paid taxes.
Hmm..You must be one of those Wacko's that thinks 9/11 was an inside job. Dude, quit smoking the pot. The U.S. government is far from being taked over by corporations because we have a socialist as a president. America will not turn into a dictatorship or socialism, otherwise the people of the USA would rebell against the Government.
Okay, yeah, fine, Bush is evil, the Iraqi war was wrong, blah blah blah, can we stop talking about this? It isn't really relevant to ANYTHING going on today. We have a different president and different problems. Well, mostly different problems. North Korea hasn't changed in the past decade.
As for your doom prophecy of rich people dominating our government (putting aside that most people in positions of government power are already rich), so what? The elite have always dominated government, and I'm not sure why you'd expect anything to change (not that the change would necessarily be good). If you have any great ideas, share them.
What does the Bush administration and the invasion of Iraq have to do with NK rocket technology?
RPennsylvanian - The people who think 9/11 was an inside job are not wackos. They are just smarter and more informed than you. Look at the video of Bldg 7 falling to the ground in 6.5 seconds and then try to tell us it was not a controlled demolition. Bldg 7 was not even hit by an airplane. It was owned by the same Man, Silverstein, as the other 2 WTC buildings and had been recently insured against a terrorist attack.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=972ETepp4GI&feature=fvwrel
Here is a video of architects, metallurgists and other scientists telling why they believe 9/11 was an inside job.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lw-jzCfa4eQ&feature=player_embedded#
Anyone who accepts the governments version of 9/11 is just intellectually lazy or lacking the brain power to investigate the truth.
Sure, the US invaded Iraq for oil, yet we don't control or benefit from Iraqi oil. You proclaim with basis that everyone knew that Iraq didn't have WMDs. In fact, most of the world believed that Iraq had WMDs. Most likely Sadam believed it as well. The space program hasn't ended, although we don't have the ability to launch manned vehicles. This was due to the age of the Shuttle fleet and the expense of maintaining and launching the shuttle. You went from uninformed assertions to outright rambling and nonsense all of which have no relevance to the article.
Info for Iraq chemical weapons. They declared "two bunkers with filled and unfilled chemical weapons munitions, some precursors, as well as five former chemical weapons production facilities" according to OPCW Director General Rogelio Pfirter when Iraq joined the Chemical Weapons Convention. This what was left over after the initial bombing campaign in 2003 and 6 years of collecting and destroying other chemical weapons
Not about North Korea, not relevant to the topic.
Ralph, if you believe our government killed hundreds of people and destroyed a national landmark just for giggles (nobody has ever given me a good reason why they would even do that), then you should probably leave the country. I certainly wouldn't tolerate a government that murders its people for no reason.
9/11 took place as an excuse to invade Arab countries, which we did in Afghanistan and Iraq. Did you just fall off the turnip truck? We went to Afghanistan to get rid of the Taliban, so Israel could have a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to India , which would pass through Afghanistan andn Pakistan. Israel owns the gas rights in Turkmenistan.
We went into Iraq to get rid of Saddam and install a leader who would be friendly to Israel and permit a new oil pipeline from Iraq to Israel, along the route of an old British pipeline. Israel would then be able to control the flow of oil to all of Europe. Pretty good reasons, huh?
http://www.jweekly.com/article/full/19725/iraq-to-haifa-oil-pipeline-could-spur-economic-rebirth/
U.S.
checking possibility of pumping oil from northern Iraq to Haifa, via Jordan
By Amiram Cohen
The
United States has asked Israel to check the possibility of pumping oil from
Iraq to the oil refineries in Haifa. The request came in a telegram last week
from a senior Pentagon official to a top Foreign Ministry official in
Jerusalem.
The
Prime Minister's Office, which views the pipeline to Haifa as a
"bonus" the U.S. could give to Israel in return for its unequivocal
support for the American-led campaign in Iraq, had asked the Americans for the
official telegram.
The
new pipeline would take oil from the Kirkuk area, where some 40 percent of
Iraqi oil is produced, and transport it via Mosul, and then across Jordan to
Israel. The U.S. telegram included a request for a cost estimate for repairing
the Mosul-Haifa pipeline that was in use prior to 1948. During the War of
Independence, the Iraqis stopped the flow of oil to Haifa and the pipeline fell
into disrepair over the years.
The
National Infrastructure Ministry has recently conducted research indicating
that construction of a 42-inch diameter pipeline between Kirkuk and Haifa would
cost about $400,000 per kilometer. The old Mosul-Haifa pipeline was only 8
inches in diameter.
National
Infrastructure Minister Yosef Paritzky said yesterday that the port of Haifa is
an attractive destination for Iraqi oil and that he plans to discuss this
matter with the U.S. secretary of energy during his planned visit to Washington
next month. Paritzky added that the plan depends on Jordan's consent and that
Jordan would receive a transit fee for allowing the oil to piped through its
territory. The minister noted, however, that "due to pan-Arab concerns, it
will be hard for the Jordanians to agree to the flow of Iraqi oil via Jordan
and Israel."
Sources
in Jerusalem confirmed yesterday that the Americans are looking into the
possibility of laying a new pipeline via Jordan and Israel. (There is also a
pipeline running via Syria that has not been used in some three decades.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=332835&contrassID=...'
http://www.nogw.com/warforisrael.html
SF-My comment was not in regards to the article but to correct Jackierawlings in their no Iraqi WMD statement.
Science is neither good nor bad, it is simply knowledge. How that knowledge is utilized is up to those in control of it, and their moral and ethical values. Whether it is rocket science (N. Korea) or nuclear science (Iran), how they are used is up to those in power, and their track records are not exactly (if you'll forgive the pun in context with this article) stellar. These regimes think by simply touting that it's "only for peaceful purposes" will assuage all fears, but they are sadly mistaken.
Why do they think they need a satelite in space? And why do we care? Didnt we just sell NASA?
They'll probably launch a nuclear bomb into orbit from which they can drop on our heads anytime they want in seconds. You think they wouldn't?
It's not that they wouldn't, it's that they CAN'T. Do you have any idea what kind of logistical know-how that would require?
About as much as putting a weather satellite on top of a long-range missile....oh, wait!
Nope, way more than that.
North Korea hasn't made a nuke that small yet.
They don't fool me, one look and you can see it in their faces they want to rule the world . Wake UP ! No really we need to give them what they want and stop being so darn mean to them ! They go from farmers to nuke experts in 20 years how does this happen ? The secret order of the axis of evil is at work spreading CHAOS, I Spy ! It is above Hilary's head why bow down ? Is it 3 am yet !
They're doing an incredibly poor job of it, then. They can only control their own country through crushing oppression and heavy militarism. They won't be ruling the world any time this millennium.
NBC has done such excellent reporting, between stories like this and the ones on the Nightly News about North Korea. Nobody in the world has this level of expertise, and the insights into everything have been fair and accurate, and very frank -- under difficult circumstances where information is trying to be tightly controlled. This interview is great, because it points out what is said, what hasn't been said, what's been veiled, what's been revealed. I don't think anyone else in the world press has this level of expertise of any team covering this story...bravo!
If they only did this good of a job relative to my government instead of pressing a left vs right debate suppressing some of the most brutal war crimes known to man as their reputations get aligned with the continued destruction of people in shelters on the streets or hiding in fear framing their talent against Rush Limbaugh as the manipulation that caused human rights to collapse around them at our core only works more efficiently- not less-for a more right than wrong President to continue making this nation worse along the surface because talent is what my government hijacks and compromises toward the most shameful end...
They are getting a medal of freedom like Robert Gates did before he told the nation the piece of @!$%# we have in the oval stole the election and not a single network decided to cover it...
I can understand how once Poet obliterated their individual liberties- by sinking them into a fraudulent investigation to maintain a position of power over them -where he could infer how powerful his concealed war time intent is while they could not criticize his consequence inferring effort where people could not speak about the other people around them having their reputations compromised to align an entire corporation with the brutal and shameful destruction of US citizens-praising their collective perception which only concentrates these efforts even further like super glue between the gaps..
...and at some point I would want to break free of this manipulation for the sake of my family, self, and country and apologize for your unknowing part so the rest of your entire @!$%#in life could be normal and with better content...
Cause it is one strange and disturbed way of life to hold this perception together on behalf of the state...
Your paranoid analysis of life in America undermines your call for better journalism.
I certainly hope I never see an article that takes your "concerns" seriously.
SF accountant: You understood what Rich said? I'm impressed. I got lost in his run-on sentence.
I live in San Francisco. I'm fluent in Conspiracy Theorist.
Oh my goodness lets panic...... Russia, China, Iran, N Korea aren't our pals..... start building a bomb shelter. Okay back to reality..... Live life and don't sweat the small stuff. Our corrupt government will do the panicking and further collapse our economy and continue sticking their spineless noses where they don't belong.
Wired's website has a bit more detail on how to tell they're lying.
I say it's time the Defense Department tested that airborne laser beam/particle beam/energy beam or whatever beam that they have been working on since Ronnie Raygun. I know they have come pretty far and have a working device. This would be the perfect test. The missile would fail or blow up and it could seem like a malfunction of the missile.
Except for the slight problem that the program was canceled and the aircraft sent into storage.
I think we ran out of money to fund it.
Let my AG explain what stellar wind is and the democracy collapsing effort he authorized to deny its existence because it slowly destroys people from the inside out...
...and maintaining the perception that it doesn't is your greatest liability...
The statements that fall flat are the ones coming from my conservatively controlled corrupt government. I do not believe one word my government tells me. Non-stop lies.
Our national interest strategy allows for lethal force to hold together a perception -with more disgusting reality inside - so special interests can be called national interests which is the outer fail safe our AG uses to destroy US citizens with a standard lower than North Korea and punishment just as brutal...
Hey, can the conspiracy theorists at least take your delusional mumbling to an article that's actually about the country you live in? At least that way it would be on topic, if not any less relevant to the real world.
This article is about North Korea, and your nonsense is mucking up the discussion.
Excellent opportunity to try out our anti-mssile defense. Perfect scenario, only 1 missile and we know when it will be launched.
Or Obama could declare it an imminent threat and we could launch a (stealth) drone to launch a hellfire at it.
If the big cat gets tired of the mouse game, the big cat can stop playing? But if the big cat needs mouse, then feed the mouse, pretend to have infinite patience. You cannot play a pretend mouse game since it is not real enough to fool who you have to fool. So mouse game is played to fool someone who feeding the mouse?
A fool would not be fool if he were not fooled?
Big guns need big triggers, plenty of big guns, plenty of big triggers. Many small excuses are needed, to not do this, the delay is necessary to extract the last drop of Oil, after the Oil is gone the era for plenty little guns and plenty little triggers begins. Until then the profits will seek am upward trend.
It might be interesting to note that our first missiles capable of putting 'heavy' items into orbit were also military (Atlas, Titan, Redstone, Jupiter, etc).
Why does it seem that certain people are trying to say, what they want to say in "Riddle" like sayings? Are people that afraid of speeking the're mind?
In other News: I don't really know what to make of this N.K. Missile launch. I know that they don't like us. But are they really stupid enough to lie like this? Do they think we will actually believe that this is a real Satalite Launch? Then again.
If they we're going to test another Rocket, wouldn't they just test another Rocket? Why do they have to hide the fact that they are testing a Nuclear Rocket, if that what it is? It's not like we actually have the balls too commit to a "First Strike" on N.K. anyways. If they test a Rocket for a Nuclear Weapon, what will we do about it? More sanctions & Isolation etc. I think they know this will happen & welcome the isolation.
Okay lets say this is a Rocket test & they in fact are getting ready to test a Hydrogen Bomb. What will we do about it? I think we should just take the world by storm & get it over with. All this sissy he said she said stuff is getting old. I don't think we have the "balls" to pull the trigger. The Men & Women who had them are dieing off now. If this had been happening in the 40's & 50's N.K. would have had the first Nuke dropped on them by now. The Men & Women of yester-year wouldn't put up with any of this provocation. They would have let our enemies have it way before it got this out of control. Sometimes I wish that we would just erase some of these dangerous countries! Diplomatic solutions take to many years, if in fact both parties are even playing the Diplomatic role & not just buying time.
What if they suprise attack us with this missile? What if its loaded already & they want an audience when they launch it?
And the naive idiot in the White House somehow thinks it is still a good idea to be considering giving food aid to NK. Please, Mr Obama, wake up and smell the coffee.
White House warns North Korea missile launch could cut off US food aid
In the language of diplomacy, nothing is absolute. You'll notice the language from Jay Carney that "it would be nearly impossible to follow through" on the aid. In diplomatic terms, that's very strong language that the North Koreans understand as well as anyone. If the launch goes ahead, you can be sure that there will be no food aid.
The question to ask is why Why would they go ahead if it would cut off food supply to their population? The answer is because they have been starving their population anyway, they can, and they don't care.
Barry
You miss the point. There should be no food even if the launch does not take place.
As if we can really believe N Korea's statements. They still cling to the lies that their other launches were successful and satellites are in orbit. What a crock. Maybe we can hope for a launch that allows the rocket to begin launching and then have it just blow apart on the launch site with journalists recording the failure. Wonder how N Korea will claim even that launch was successful.
Do not underestimate the power of a cult of personality. This country is entering its third generation under the most psychologically repressive regime in human history. North Korea is akin to Jonestown or the Branch Davidians on an unparallelled scale. Most North Koreans have been conditioned from birth to believe everything their government tells them is the unmitigated gospel, even when the government's statements turn 180 degrees from one day to the next. I doubt anyone reading here can have a true grasp on just how poweful their hold is on their population.
Kind of like how the Japanese were brainwashed in the 1920s & 30s and we all know how that worked out.
North Korea is not in the business of launching satellites. They are in the business of barking when China yanks their chain.
Considering the economic sanctions against NK, I'm not sure they'd have many, if any, customers.
The North Koreans would be more credible if the "satellite" didn't look like a basketball covered with aluminum foil with the word satellite printed on it in magic marker.........
Sorry, but sometimes I don't quite get the whole story in skipping through some of these news items. Did I read that Kim Jung Dung(something like that) is getting gassed up for a launch? Not being at all up on North Korea I'm wondering does that involve hitting the bottle? Hope not, he seems so young and vulnerable. Could be that is why his grades were so bad in school.
I say we go ahead and let them launch it and on the remote possibility that it actually achieves orbit, we simply test one of our anti satellite missiles and then say "OOPS" like they did after sinking that South Korean Ship.............
We can use the same excuse they did on Japan Air flight 007.