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Philippe Wojazer / Reuters
Nicolas Sarkozy, France's President and UMP party candidate for the 2012 French presidential election, leaves the stage after delivering a speech at a campaign rally in Saint-Brice-sous-Foret, Paris suburb, April 12, 2012.
With fewer than 10 days until France casts its votes in the first round of the presidential election, Nicolas Sarkozy’s poll lead is shrinking, suggesting his deft handling of last month’s shootings in Toulouse won’t be enough to protect him from anger at the state of the economy.
Three opinion polls showed the incumbent's narrow lead over challenger Francois Hollande is steady or shrinking for the April 22 first round, and Sarkozy is still expected to lose the subsequent May 6 runoff.
"He’s been trailing Hollande in the second round pretty consistently," Justin Vaïsse, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told msnbc.com. "It’s hard to see where the reservoir of votes would come from to make him win."
Sarkozy saw his lead for the first ballot slip to half a percentage point from two points a week ago in a poll by Ipsos Logica, with 29 percent support to Hollande's 28.5 percent.
Benoit Tessier / Reuters
Francois Hollande, Socialist Party candidate for the 2012 French presidential election, poses for a photo with a supporter in Aubervilliers, suburb Paris April 7, 2012.
The same poll showed Hollande retaining a 10-point lead in voting intentions for the May 6 runoff with 55 percent to Sarkozy's 45 percent, unchanged from a week earlier.
An Ifop Fiducial poll showed Sarkozy with 28.5 percent to Hollande's 27 percent in round one, unchanged over the last month - but Hollande's lead in the run-off narrowed to six points from eight points two weeks ago.
A third poll by Harris Interactive gave Sarkozy a one-point lead in the first round at 28 percent to Hollande's 27, down from 3 points a week earlier. It too put Hollande ahead of Sarkozy 53 to 47 in the runoff.
All three polls indicated far-right candidate Marine Le Pen had strengthened her position in third place, ahead of hard left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon in fourth.
The campaign kicked off on April 9, bringing political ads to radio and TV stations and giant posters to the streets. But the race started months ago for the 10 candidates, and some experts say the most interesting days are already behind us.
Robert Pratta / Reuters
Marine Le Pen, France's National Front head and far right candidate for 2012 French presidential election, attends a campaign rally in Lyon, April 7, 2012.
"Overall it’s been a boring campaign," Vaïsse said, adding that over the past few weeks the race has been bogged down by small issues such as halal meat and the cost of earning a driving license. In comparison, the 2007 race that Sarkozy won focused on issues such as unemployment and European disunity, he said.
Polls show the electorate is growing weary of the rhetoric as well. A recent national survey found 32 percent of respondents don't plan on hitting the polls, a figure that Jonathan Laurence, nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, says is atypical. The turnout in the 2007 elections was about 80 percent.
The shift in campaign rhetoric occurred early this year, when Sarkozy went from talking about his important role in the partnership with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in saving the Eurozone to discussing immigration and threatening to pull France out of Schengen, Europe's open border zone.
He went from being the "locomotive of Europe" to playing the anti-Europe card, Vaïsse said.
For voters, issues such as unemployment, the nation's debt and deficit and education are bigger priorities than Islam and immigration, Vaïsse added. But for the right-wing voters Sarkozy is trying to coax to his side, they are seen as essential.
That conversation took center stage following a deadly shooting in Toulouse, where Mohamed Merah, a 23-year-old Frenchman killed three Jewish schoolchildren, a rabbi and three French paratroopers in three separate attacks. The Toulouse shootings allowed Sarkozy to act presidential, Laurence said.
His handling of the crisis was reflected by a slight uptick in the polls, but Vaïsse said the Toulouse effect is unlikely to make a big difference in the long run.
In the end, the election is a referendum on how Sarkozy and his government handled the economic crisis, Laurence said.
With unemployment at a 12-year high and France stripped of its AAA status by one credit rating agency, the Bank of France offered no redemption for Sarkozy's economic record.
Figures for growth were revised downward, a trend that Hollande could benefit from. Sarkozy advocates financial discipline and austerity, but that's not enough to solve the growth problem, Vaïsse said.
Hollande has pledged to balance the budget in 2017, Bloomberg reported, while Sarkozy promised to reach the target a year earlier. According to the report, the country's public deficit stood at 5.2 percent in 2011.
"We will keep to the fixed plan of reducing our public deficit to 3 percent [of GDP] in 2013," Hollande said in an interview with La Tribune. "It's France's word."
Hollande said he would finance his plan of increasing spending by 20 billion euros by repealing 29 billion euros of tax breaks for the rich.
While the race for re-election is an uphill battle for Sarkozy, there remains a small possibility he can scrape his way to a second term in office if he wins in the first round and picks up some support from the centrist candidate's electorate, Vaïsse said.
"Frankly, apart from that scenario, it’s hard to see how he’ll be able to make it," he added.
Reuters contributed to this report.
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When the economy is bad put a socialist in power to really screw it up. Didn't France learn anything about the Obama election?
Ignoring the fact that Obama's policies are far from being socialist (trust me, I'm studying in France right now---you don't know what socialism is until you live in Europe), let's look at this from a comparative perspective.
Sarkozy is a Unionist, which is a center-right party. Hollande is a Socialist, which is a center-left party. However, the political spectrum shifts to the left in Europe, so even though Sarkozy is a European right-winger, he's much more like a Democrat than a Republican. That makes Hollande, by American standards, Bernie Sanders.
The closest thing to a Republican in France are the National Front party led by Marine Le Pen. They are the only party that is strongly opposed to abortion, gay marriage and immigration. As such, it is considered a radical and extremist party, and never gets more than 20% of the vote in any election.
The last thing France needs is a "Democrat" or "Republican" type candidate. They've both done more than their fair share to ruin the U.S. and its economy. Why argue social issues when people don't have jobs, people are mooching off welfare, people have no affordable healthcare, people have no money left in their 401ks, people have had billions stolen by corporations and Ponzi schemes, the rich don't pay taxes, and people are fighting in a country no one wants them? Both parties don't solve these issues, they only COMPOUND them!
George Washington said that the party system would divide and destroy the U.S. He wanted the individual to make up his mind.
Why can't we do that today in the Information Age? It's going to have to happen in either Greece, U.S. or France first.
I guess that the French learned about as much as you did under 8 years of George W. Bush as you plainly long for 8 more years of this country being under the beck and call of Wall Street.
But it's clear that Sarkozy's only one in the long line of French presidents who wished to restore France into what the French obviously believe is their rightful place in history: a super power.
Looks like he's about to be "French" fried...
"According to the report, the country's public deficit stood at 5n2 percent in 2011. "
Gee, I wonder what Obama's deficit is after 3 years? Let's see;
2011 Deficit = $1.3 Trillion
2011 GDP = $15.0 Trillion
Debt Ratio = 8.7%
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
"We will keep to the fixed plan of reducing our public deficit to 3 percent [of GDP] in 2013," Hollande said in an interview with La Tribune. "It's France's word."
Let's compare 'Big Spender' Bush's average Debt Ratio over his full 8 years;
Average Deficit = $251 Billion
Average GDP = $12.174 Trillion
Average Debt Ratio = 2.06%
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Islamic terrorism is the biggest threat to both France and all of Europe.Its as bad as the nazi threat in the last century.Sarkozy is the best man to fight it.He needs to win again!!
Ryan - WI
The closest thing to a Republican in France are the National Front party led by Marine Le Pen. They are the only party that is strongly opposed to abortion, gay marriage and immigration. As such, it is considered a radical and extremist party, and never gets more than 20% of the vote in any election.
-------
Wouldn't t be great if the radical and extremest party in the US, the rethugli-con party, never got more than 20% of the votes in any election. Just think, no bush 2, no Ronnie Ray-Guns, no Richard Nixon. God, how much better off this country would be.
It would be nice if we could get 80% of our eligible voters to the polls.
Nice trick, Roy Wilson. You score Obama according to the deficit of his last budget, and score Bush according to the average of all 8 of his years in office? Sure, when you let yourself factor in the first few years of Bush's administration, thereby including the surpluses he inherited from Clinton, he looks a little better. But Bush's last budget, which was for the fiscal year ending in 2009, had a deficit of $1.4 trillion. Suddenly Bush doesn't fare as well in your comparison.
Why were Bush's deficits so high? Because he gutted our revenue base with two huge tax cuts for the rich, and decided to wage two wars while he was at it. Why are Obama's deficits still nearly as high? Because he's still saddled with those tax cuts (in a noble but ill-advised attempt to court Republican lawmakers, he extended them) and he's still fighting Bush's war on terror. And don't forget the money Obama had to spend in stimulus to keep our necks above water after the 2008 financial crisis, and the further hits to our revenue base caused by a deep recession. Less GDP means less tax dollars, and that means deficit. Period.
You don't like Obama? Fine. No one says you have to. But if you're going to make an argument, and you want people to respect that argument, then argue honestly. Comparing the deficit of one year under Obama to an average of 8 years under Bush is a dirty trick. And we're not going to let it fly.
Sarkozy does not deserve a second term.
Why are they hyping this as some sort of weapon or something when it was a rocket to launch a weather satelite?
Stop making everything they do look like it's a threatening action.
I am trying to wrap my mind around the whole right wing in france thing... le tea partie? Fat white men in berets wielding baguettes smoking pall malls!
You're a jerk!
Sarkozy has been a fearless leader. I admire him....he has guts. We need more leaders like him.
Keep Sarkozy,he went after the muslims following the muslim scum's killing of innocents! His goal should be to rid his entire country of the muslims who have defiled the most beautiful country in our world.
Yes, and get rid of the Jews, gypsies, epileptics, homosexuals too... wait, someone already tried that!
To TB Austin: When the economy is good put in a right wing wanna be cowboy (like bush) to really screw it up so rednecks can blame the next guy that takes office.
Also necessary is complete ignorance of the facts.
You sound like you have no clue how government works. So at least you're sticking to ignorance of the facts.
Rick, funny I had more money when Bush was president then I do now
wlee- I actually had a good job when Bush was Prez. Unemployed and 60 yrs old now!
good, France is getting rid of their socialist president and i think it is time for ours to go also, maybe thats why obama and sarkozy gets alont so well. both socialist's.
Gawd, you're really that ignorant, right? Have you ever even BEEN to a socialist country?
looks like francois hollande will be the next president. don't see sarkozy winning.
This would be a BIG MISTAKE for France. Sarkozy has reengaged France with the rest of the World. I almost think it is sometimes funny to watch him walk the fence between all the factions of his Country Men to appease them all. For the first time since WW2 France is in the leading pact of the free world and they owe this to Sarkozy and his party. It is nice to have you back with us, Tre Bein !
tell that to the retirees whose pensions have been shrunk after working 40 years. how is that working? oh yes, work 40 years under left rule, get punked your retirement in 7 years of of right rule. thanks a lot Republicons. and now, die.
I think a Socialist President and a more open immigration policy towards moslems is just the ticket for France.
We do not want zee Sarkozy zat beleeeves in zee 40 hr work week and productivity and better relations weeeth thee naughty Americaaaans. We want zee socialist that will get us back to zee good ol carefree days of Mitterand.
the short answer is "NO"
the long answer is the "7 years effect" is about to bite him back in the rear. Our Friend Sarkozy has implemented tax cut for the rich just like Bush did here, or Merkel did in Germany. that crew is just all out of prosperity to exploit.
The Big winner after Merah attacks is clearly Marine Le Pen. For a long time, she warned that if we don't put a limit in the immigration process, we will be attacked too by the extremists. Merah just confirmed and proved it so well.
Secondly, Since he is president, Nicolas Sarkozy used the French Intelligence community to protect his high profile friends (Check out the Bettencourt Affair). Merah was just a small individual in France so it gets zapped for "higher" purpose. That's the reality. Afterwards, he tried to lighten his mistake by broadcasting some spectacular arrests nationwide. Of course we would see it (like you're actually doing by the way) as an heroic act but it's all a political manipulation we get used to see here since 2007! Wanna a proof? All the guys arrested during the second wave of arrest, returned home with dropped charges!
So don't be mistaken fellows! Sarkozy definitely lost his election: Merah was the last drop which makes extend beyond the Vase like we use to say here! But Le pen definitely passed a gap! Prepare to be surprised!
Vous etes fou, mon ami.
we'll see!
Sarkozy is just another in a long line of self-absorbed celebrity EU politicans. Good Riddance to one more hypocritical anti-semitic Loser.
Tsk-tsk. President Sarkozy is Jewish.
President Sarkozy acts- Interior Min. and police in Essone have just arrested 2 individuals in the murders of 2 women and 2 men in Ris Oranges . They have been under observation (gathering evidence)- the first ma- a 33 yr old larrested at his parents' home second man arrested in Paris on Saturday- they recovered the motorike. Read more in Leparisien.fr Mlle Le Pen will not be elected- Sarkozy will win in second round- since far left/left wants to leave NATO now. Sarkozy is on the side of Armenians whose 1915 genocide started Aprill 15th- and Sarkozy knows what Turkish policies are- Neo-Ottoman Empirette with totalitarian PM Erdogan's Party in control.
Maybe after Obama f!@%s up our country,he can go to France and show them how a real communist takes down his country..just a thought for warm fuzzie Libs... :o)
Hope Sarkozy wins.
But lot of French hope not.
The Muslims?
Amazing people like Roy use numbers to paint Bush as a low spending president compared to Obama. The numbers only work if you ignore the tax base destroyed under Bush in the few months prior to leaving office or choose to ignore the cost of 2 wars started by Bush that Obama is having to get us out of. Wiping out 15 trillion in net wealth in his closing months the next administration whether Obama or if republicans had won would of made any difference.