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Subscribe to RSSNBC's Richard Engel spent two weeks in North Korea and got a rare and revealing look inside this very closed country.
BEIJING - North Korea has almost completed preparations for a third nuclear test, a senior source with close ties to Pyongyang and Beijing told Reuters, which will draw further international condemnation following a failed rocket launch if it goes ahead.
The isolated and impoverished state sacrificed the chance of closer ties with the United States when it launched the long-range rocket on April 13 and was censured by the U.N. Security Council, including the North's sole major ally, China.
Critics say the rocket launch was aimed at honing the North's ability to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States, a move that would dramatically increase its military and diplomatic heft.
Now the North appears to be about to carry out a third nuclear test after two in 2006 and 2009.
"Soon. Preparations are almost complete," the source said when asked whether North Korea was planning to conduct a nuclear test.
North Korea threatens to reduce South Korea's government 'to ashes'
This is the first time a senior official has confirmed the planned test and the source has correctly predicted events in the past, telling Reuters about the 2006 test days before it happened.
The rocket launch and nuclear test come as Kim Jong-un, the third in his family line to rule North Korea, seeks to cement his grip on power.
Kim took office in December and has lauded the country's military might, reaffirming his father's "military first" policies that have stunted economic development and appearing to dash slim hopes of an opening to the outside world.
Washington, Seoul and Tokyo, which have most to fear from any North Korean nuclear threat, are watching events anxiously and many observers say that Pyongyang may have the capacity to conduct a test using highly enriched uranium for the first time.
Defense experts say that by successfully enriching uranium, to make bombs of the type dropped on Hiroshima nearly 70 years ago, the North would be able to significantly build up stocks of weapons-grade nuclear material.
It would also allow it more easily to manufacture a nuclear warhead to mount on a long-range missile.
The source did not specify whether the test would be a third test using plutonium, of which it has limited stocks, or whether Pyongyang would use uranium.
South Korean defense sources have been quoted in domestic media as saying a launch could come within two weeks and one North Korea analyst has suggested that it could come as early as the North's "Army Day" on Wednesday.
Other observers say that any date is pure speculation.
The rocket launch and the planned nuclear test have exposed the limits of China's hold over Pyongyang. Beijing is the North's sole major ally and props up the state with investment and fuel.
"China is like a chameleon toward North Korea," said Kim Young-soo, professor of political science at Sogang University in Seoul. "It says it objects to North Korea's provocative acts, but it does not participate in punishing the North."
North Korea's Kim Jong Un speaks publicly for first time, urges 'final victory'
Reports have suggested that a Chinese company may have supplied a rocket launcher shown off at a military parade to mark this month's centenary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, the state's founder, something that may be in breach of UN sanctions.
China has denied breaching sanctions.
The source said there was debate in North Korea's top leadership over whether to go ahead with the launch in the face of U.S. warnings and the possibility of further U.N. sanctions, but that hawks in the Korean People's Army had won the debate.
The source dismissed speculation that the failed launch had dealt a blow to Kim Jong-un, believed to be in his late 20s, who came to power after his father Kim Jong-il died following a 17-year rule that saw North Korea experience a famine in the 1990s.
"Kim Jong-un was named first secretary of the (ruling) Workers' Party and head of the National Defence Commission," the source said, adding that the titles further consolidated his grip on power.
North Korean media has recently upped its criticism of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who cut off aid to Pyongyang when he took power in 2008, calling him a "rat" and a "bastard" and threatening to turn the South Korean capital to ashes.
Pyongyang desperately wants recognition from the United States, the guarantor of the South's security. It claims sovereignty over the entire Korean peninsula, as does South Korea.
"North Korea may consider abandoning (the test) if the United States agrees to a peace treaty," the source said, reiterating a long-standing demand by Pyongyang for recognition by Washington and a treaty to end the 1950-1953 Korean War, which ended in a truce.
Copyright 2013 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.
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What a banana republic. Can we just ignore these fools? I mean what self-respecting nation would give them a dime for their worthless 'technology' ?
Ooh I know where this is going. We are going to quickly respond viciously and ferociously by writing them a letter stating how angry we are.
Actually, we are far more likely to apologize for offending their sensibilities.
Knowing how our leader reacts to situations, they might even get a handshake, a bow, or kisses to their boots. Possibly even a few gifts to show how much he likes to kiss people's @$$e$ with his foreign policy.
Why not just leave the North Koreans alone and let them do what ever they want. We should arm the South Koreans with some nuclear arms and let them decide what they want to do, period.
xaziol
Do you mean like bush did in 2006?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test
I'm pretty sure everyone would love to ignore them; however what's stopping them from being the aggressor if they get their hands on a nuclear weapon? Their people are starving, their government is propped up by crazy ideology, and they would have collapsed if it wasn't for China (and it's greed for N. Korea's resources).
It's not like Iran where if we left them alone they'd be semi-okay (via their oil based economy), N. Korea's literally backing itself into a corner and that's not going to end well if they get their hands on a nuclear weapon as well.
@Big Trouble,
Do you know what a Banana Republic is? It refers to the time when United Fruit used the US Army or the threat of its use to control several Central American companies, such as Honduras, where O.Henry lived for a time. Generally, today, the term refers to the resulting countries that sprang from such horrendous military repression previously.
North Korea is one of the largest exporters of military technology in the world. AK-47's are easy to buy (though North Korea sells its share) but updated SCUD missiles are not. They sell ship-to-ship and ship-to shore missiles, armored personnel carriers, ammunition, torpedoes, nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons technology, and various military secrets --- it comes to over $100 million a year from countries like Syria and Iran and now Muslim countries that want to keep the door open to future nuclear weapons programs, such as Egypt. Add to that considerable income from counterfeiting (especially of the euro and dollar) and drugs and you have a nice chunk of change in a tiny country.
The problem is that North Korea holds all the aces and they know it. Their military is so entrenched that the US military has been powerless against it with no viable option except an all-out nuclear war that would cause huge collateral damage to China and Japan while completely destroying South Korea. That's what the hawks are beating the war drums for ....
Eisenhower was the first to confront North Korea. He couldn't come up with a way to hit them without getting his nose bloodied in the process. Various methods have been tried by other Presidents without success of any kind. But every President knows that any response that is an actual threat could well result in the complete destruction of South Korea and a huge proportion of the 30,000 US troops in about 15 minutes.
Why do you idiots think that were able to sink a state-of-the-art anti-submarine warfare corvette with huge loss of life, have evidence found right down to pieces of the torpedo stamped "Made in North Korea", and still have nothing happen to them? It's because they depend on the US, China, Japan and South Korea to realize what any serious response would cost them.
It's fun to type at a computer screen and say crap like "nuke 'em" when you have no skin in the game. But it is quite another when the decision is for real and being made by intelligent people.
If this works as good as the rocket did we all need to take cover!
I'm really getting tired of this. Been there done that, over too many administrations. Israel too.
50 years of wasted money, effort and anxiety. Let's put our effort into something like blowing up Luxembourg.
That would at least be different.
Alex, China isn't a North Korean ally because of NK's resources. NK's "economy" is overwhelmingly rural and not self-sustaining, while nearly all NK resources of any real value go to military projects. China became allies with NK through their Communist ties; nowadays they just want the regime to hold together so that they don't have thousands of refugees pouring through their borders.
Chris, while your analysis is well-founded, I'm sure, I have to think you're overestimating North Korea's organizational competence. It takes a lot to destroy an entire country, and South Korea has had an awful long time to prepare for the worst and the world's greatest military superpower backing them up. Although war is the worst option of those available, I don't think it would go nearly so well for the North as you suggest.
Nuclear test? Why not? Let the Larry, Curly and Moe NK nuke themselves into oblivion. In NK, failure definitely is an option.
These banana republics can easily produce a dirty brief case bomb and sneak it in to NYC. Put a timer on it, they won't even need a suicide bomber. So you want to ignore them ?
Well this is going to blow up in their faces.
I meant the situation not the bomb.
Just little background. Any reasonably intelligenthigh school kid with modest machine shop skills could make a nuclear weapon of the "gun" (Nagasaki) type. Add a little electronics knowledge and access to camera equipment, he could build an "implosion" (Hiroshima) type weapon. The only real difficulty is in obtaining the fissile material. But beyond just having a bomb is the issue of having one small and light enough to put on a missile.
North Korea has had two previous test shots. One an apparent success and one appeared to fizzle. Beyond the simple fact that one usually learns more useful information from failures than from successes in such things as missiles and bomb tests, it appears that North Korea is easily capable of building a nuclear weapon that weighs several tons. That is useful because they would only have to fly it 30km to drop it on Seoul.
But the past test shots indicate that North Korea is working, not on just having a bomb, but on having one small enough to put on a missile. This is much more complicated, but also allows for building more bombs with the same amount of fissile material. And this is very saleable knowledge.
But North Korea still has an option for using Hirshima/Nagasaki-type weapons that is almost never discussed. (This pertains to Iran as well.) They can produce a Nagasakio/Hiroshima-type weapon without the shielding that makes it safe to transport and store. Suddenly the weight of a gun-type weapon (the easiest and most reliable type to make) drops from several tons to less than 1500kg. And all that you sacrifice are the workers who put the bomb on the missile or bomber and the actual crew. North Korea could get such "volunteers" simply by holding families hostage and Iran could do it with religious fanatics.
Kinda scary to think about.
Maybe America should stop feeding the people that want to kill us.
If a child is acting up, you should ignore her. Instead, the world gives North Korea attention and the cycle continues. It is time to let North Korea cry itself to sleep.
Your absolutely right, give these clowns nothing, let them starve, and if they get crazy, we'll annihalte them.
The media cannot leave the North alone. They run around crying the sky is falling the sky is falling, every time one of Kim's do something. Eventually the North is going to detonate a nuc that errupts and spews a radioactive cloud either east or west. Once the Chinese start getting radiaton sickness, they will end the leadership of North Korea. Once China stops supporting them, that is when the real danger will start. Corner a Rat and it will fight. There is no telling how many tactical nuc's or small dirty bombs the North has manufactored. They will die rather than give up. Obama isn't going to do anything. North Korea is a model of his idea of what the government controlling everything resembles.
The media knows its history. Here is a PARTIAL list of North Korean incidents:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_border_incidents_involving_North_Korea
You can see that they are seriously capable of causing trouble. I had friends on the EC-121 that was shot down over the SoJ.
I seriously doubt North Korea has any "tactical" nuclear weapons, and dirty bombs are nothing but bad jokes. Unpleasant and horrific, perhaps, but useless militarily. South Korea has much more to fear from the conventional army.
North Korea has a nuclear device, not a nuclear weapon.
Tired of this crap, who are we to decide who can and cannot have the bomb. In the next 20 years there will be a multitude of nations with the bomb whether we like it or not, what we need to do is try to increase dialogue and understanding with ALL nations. We cannot go around bombing every nation that makes that decision because it's hypocritical when you bomb and kill in the name of peace and stability. Do I want North Korea to have Nuclear capabilities? No, but look at Iran, Pakistan, India and a host of other questionable countries that have or are on their way to their own bomb, don't forget about Chemical Weapons which few people know the killing power that they have. Unless we stand united in the name of peace and unity and God get ready for War and Destruction which will come from more corridors than just North Korea who is the Villan of the Month.
For over 50 years everyone has tried to reason with the North Koreans and nothing works. Given this fact why are you suggesting the same failed policy instead of just cutting off food supplies to them and any other country that sends them food?
HarleMan, your suggestion is to let North Korea continue on its present course and you are resigned to the fact that Iran will soon have a bomb and join North Korea, Pakistan and India, etc in the "well armed but not particularly stable" club? We'll just continue to try to reason with them? Really? Has that worked AT ALL so far? One definition of insanity is to continue to perform the same actions expecting a different outcome each time.
Deerslayer I stand by my words YES in the next 20 years the Nuclear Club will have more members and I am resigned to that, I am more worried about my day to day existence than who has or has not have the bomb, I really don't care because it's not much we can do anyway. What do you suggest we do? Go to war with Iran and North Korea, whose next? Why does this task fall at the feet of the US? Do you have an answer? I think one definition of insanity is War? Has that worked?
North Korea is a different situation from Iran, Israel, India, and Pakistan.
North Korea is after real weapons. They sell this sort of technology and it fits in with their brand of brinkmanship. It's just a sort of "penis extender" similar in psychology to a short fat guy owning a handgun.
Iran, on the other hand, seems to want, not an active repository of nuclear weapons, such as Israel has, but wants a "standby" weapons capability. No actual weapons, but technology and fissionable material to build one within 6 months or so. If you think about it, this is almost impossible to prevent.
India wanted nuclear weapons because they modelled after the French post-NATO. They wanted an independent nuclear capability because of the hostility of the United States and its friendship with Pakistan.
Pakistan wanted nuclear weapons because India had them. India started out twice as big as Pakistan, then Pakistan broke in half and India was four times its size. Instant paranoia.
And Isreal started out paranoid. No one likes to mention that Israel's original weapons were made with yewllowcake highjacked from at least three ships at sea (one Canadian, two African) possibly with the complicity of the US Navy. They skipped right over the development phase because they were able to steal plans and key components from the United States. The Mossad had more spies in the US (and more caught) than the communist countries combined. They compromised many scientists by trading on religious connections in the US.
So, none of these countries has the same reasons for getting nukes.
And we can't restrict the knowledge necessary to build a bomb. It is simply too much public knowledge. All we can restrict is the amount of enriched uranium/plutonium that a country can possess at any given time. This is a more reasonable goal.
We can also make the consequences of acquiring nuclear capability too costly for any modern economy to suffer. But that only works on modern economies with more of a stake in liberal trade than military power. Unfortunately, very few of the countries we're worried about having nukes fit that definition.
Well, based on their recent rocket launch this test ought to be interesting. At least they'd be blowing themselves up! Cheers!
May their nuclear test be just as successful as their last rocket test, and may the world be rid of North Korea once and for all. South Korea, since you are so close, I will be more than glad to help provide shelter for as many of your lovely women as I can.
i pray to god if there is one that obama doesnt appease north korea again and do peace treaty just to prevent nuclear test thats like rewarding a nation after it threatens south with destructions and calling its president a rat bastard and year before that attack and sinking south korean sub and launching artillery strikes on the islands. This nation does not deserve any treaty with united states so please for all that is holy do not appease north korea like last time with food aid for only they smack u in the face. obama appeasement has failed
The interest in a peace treaty is actually increasing, but for a very unexpected reason. The South Koreans watched with great interest as the West Germans tried to adsorb the poorly educated, poorly trained, poorly motivated, and induatrially backwards East Germany with its top-heavy military and elite. It came close to wrecking the German economy which had to greatly slow down the rate of adsorption.
The North Koreans are far more rural, poor, poorly educated, poorly informed, and poorly motivated than the East Germans ever conceived of being. The North Korean military and elite control vastly more of the economy than even the East Germans at their worst. Malnutrition has taken such a toll on North Korea that the average North Korean is 15 IQ points lower than the average South Korean. Even the North Korean military (except for the upper ranks) suffers from malnutrition, though to a lesser degree.
The South Koreans have begun to estimate the effect on their own powerful and growing economy. Older South Koreans want reunification, regardless of the cost, mostly because they have relatives in the North and it is what their parents wanted most. But younger South Koreans have no ties to the North and don't want to see their taxes quadrupled in order to achieve reunification. They don't want a lower-caste North Korean running through their neighborhood steraling their flat screen TV. The North has few resources and would be such a drain on the South that the South would lose much of its export base.
So young South Koreans have been pushing for about 10 years now for a permanent separation of Korea into two countries with a massive disarmament on the parts of the two countries as a condition. Slowly, especially as the older, more nationalistic Koreans die off, the idea is getting traction.
The major opponent is China, surprisingly. China is opposed to any situation in the Korean peninsula, including making "two Koreas" permanent, that would have the potential to dump millions of North Korean refugees on its territory. This is the nightmare that China fears the most --- a huge cost, followed by an indefinite period of extreme social friction caused by the refugees. Chine would most likely veto any peace treaty at the UN.
This has little to do with Obama. Starting with Eisenhower, every President has faced the problem and failed to find a military or diplomatic solution. This has nothing to do with apeasement, but everything to do with the fact that the North Koreans can take out South Korea (and US 'tripwire" forces) in about 15 minutes if they should so choose and there is little we can do to prevent it except to "play along" at the lowest posible level and hope for some sort of change (as appears to be happening in Myanmar.)
NK is like a pissy little kid who wants to show off a new skateboard trick, only to fall on his ass. Since you were a witness to the flop, he's angry at you and will try to show you something else--like an A-bomb.
I think you have that right on. That is exactly what they're doing...
Historically, the North Koreans have liked to do their provocations serially, not one because of the failure of another. That is they had already refilled the tunnels at their nuclear test site BEFORE the rocket failed. This means that they had at least a two-act play planned all along. If you look at their history, Act III will most likely be some sort of military provocation, equal to or larger than the sinking of the RoKN corvette Cheonan.
So, it your logic was correct, they knew the rocket would fail some weeks before it was launched. Not very logical.
Maybe they'll try another artillery strike. Perhaps in response to a South Korean soldier looking at them funny from the other end of the DMZ.
It would be funny if it weren't so possible.
Kinda doubt we would sign a peace treaty there crazy, the idea of the north taking out the south is to great a threat for our intrest in the area, and china wont pull out complete support for the north becouse their biggest fear is having a korea united under the souths leadership, that would bring the US right to their door step.
we have nukes of our own, we're not using. I can recommend a few places. lol
Nuclear war is getting ever so closer everyday and one day it will be a reality that the weapons from all countries will be fired at their so called enemy's,there will be no winners in this war,but the powers that be will look at it from there cozy nuclear bunkers as a chess match and the side that has launched the last weapon will win,it is just to bad there will be no more people left in the world to share their..so called glory
Please. North Korea is not the next Soviet Union.
Well, okay, in terms of oppression, gross human rights violation, mass starvation, and psychotic disregard for human life, they are, but the Soviets had clout.
My point is that the world isn't going to be pushed to the brink over this little dunghole of a country.
Tired of the "We might do something" crowd?
I say ignore their butts until they actually DO something worth punishing and then let hell rain down on them. They know what the rest of the world is capable of.
I swear the media is just whoring itself out so badly to sell newspapers these days.
Ever notice how often a news station or website has the "Breaking News" banner flying to only find out that Brittany Spears was seen with a new poodle?
Where have all the real journalist gone?
Finally a person with sense...I agree with you 110% Okeeboy, I am on the same page. Leave NK, Iran and the up and coming Nuclear weapon countries to themselves, they WON'T DARE use one of their missiles because they know that they will be blown to Hell. Most of the posts are saying what we should do, it's not that simple and once you start someting it takes years and trillions of dollars to finish the job. We are simply not up to the task right now and this is a world issue not a US issue.
I hope they have some sort of isolated incident that takes some of their key players out of the weapon-making business.
I have to wonder if the tunnel they built for the underground test just happens to wander underneath Seoul? Hmmm. It is almost strange to think that N Korea has any strategy at all beyond suicide that brings as many people down with them as possible. The leaders are insane and the people no longer have any thought beyond getting food and may just feel that "ending it all" is a valid decision.
It seems like North Korea has a lot more issues they need to be dealing with then worrying about their nuclear testing and other military capabilities...
Someone had made a comment the other day suggesting Iran, possibly being involved with North Korea trying to shift the focus away from themselves.
I would imagine we have people in our government looking into that angle as it does seem logical.
@Brent,
The Iranian-North Korean link is one that seems to be increasingly important. The North Koreans have apparently been trading their nuclear wespons expertise (building and setting up centrifuges for example) for Iranian missile technology.
The North Koreans have exploded a couple of test shots thus far and are apprently working on advanced warheads. The Iranians have already put several satellites in orbit successfully andhave moved on to the key missile technology of solid-propellant rockets and combination inertial/GPS guidance systems. If you put the two together, you have two countries capable of building nuclear weapons in the sub-megaton category and placing them on "ready alert" missiles capable of global distances.
I doubt that Iran is trying to shift focus away from themselves. In fact, just the opposite --- their President is having a rough time politically and wants to retain the "common threat" against which to rally his supporters by playing up the US and Israeli threat to the Iranian people.
This is just the young Kim shaking out any hint of disloyalty as he consolidates power. He was apparently the one behind the sinking of the Cheonan as one of his first acts of power. When something like this is done, the elite has "watchers" in place to sniff out any hint of disloyalty or even hesitation at following even the most audacious provocations. And the fact that young Kim was able to order the corvette sunk and there was no response from South Korea or the US probably went a long way toward consolidating his position.
Thumbing your nose at the US, South Korea, and especially Japan goes a long way toward improving young Kim's credibility with the ruling elite.
Their Rocket blew up so whar's the Bomb gonna doo ?
This time when they push the button, a giant cork on a string will probably pop out.
Maybe in bizarro-world North Korea, their bomb will launch a weather satellite into space?
Ahhh yes another test. This time we will see if it causes an earth quake in South America, last time an earth quake occured after the blast. Too bad mankind is sooo insane. More radiation being released into the environment will surely cause global warming to excelerate. Add in what is happening in Japan with their meltdowns we should warm up quite cozy. We maybe all ready to late to stop it.
Radiation accelerates global warming? Where's the report on that? I've never heard such a thing.
This is a big chess game, with NK as a deranged pawn. Someone has a dedicated interest in getting the US and its allies to escalate and destabilize that quarter of Asia, just like the last two times. Let them blow themselves to kingdom come, while their people starve. This gambit, if we take the bait, can only lead us down a bad road.
n korea has to know they will be a pile of ash if they launch on s korea. how is this action a win to them? they may underestimate the u.s.'s willingness to launch a couple of nukes, to defend friends. if we do not, who will trust our friendship in the future?
psychopathic fools
If they're still working on the gun based initiator they haven't advanced much.
You've noticed? Look what happens when they try to launch a satellite.
I find it comical that they want to test nuclear weapons after failing at putting a "satellite" in orbit. LOL they're going to blow themselves up. Problem Solved.
That little No. Kroean Fat Terd is LAUGHING about his assets at Us.....
Obama is Busy on the Campaign trail and doesn't give a crap about No.Korea, Iran, Syria..........OR our Social Security Program that will be bankrupt in 2033........Screw our kids!
Oops.....he's campaigning in N.C., Colorado, Iowa,,,,,,,,and Telling LIES about the Student Loan low interest Program that he Did NOT even vote on in 2007 BECAUSE he was Campaigning!
AND Idiot Biden in down in Flordia Campaigning (on OUR Dime)....and call the EverGlades, the *Evergators*....What an IDIOT...although it was better than his *Big Fuc....* Deal.
BOTH Billion Dollar Air Force Jets AND their Secret Service guys are running around this country at OUR expense!
PUKE!
Some things Never change!
Lies......Fraud......BS
Oh, Patty - give it a rest. Every president who was running for re-election has done the same thing. There is probably an article somewhere where you can post this diatribe and even read about how many trips President Bush took to the ranch in Crawford at OUR expense. Do you really think President Obama invented this stuff? And that he is the only one who has ever campaigned for re-election? If so, you must be about 12 years old. Get back on the subject of NK, that's what the article is about. And by the way, the President being in Florida is not like he is on the moon. As I recall, President Bush was in Florida on 9/11 but was able to step up to the plate pretty quickly.
Uh Oh! Stan and Laurel are lighting the bomb's fuse! Should be a good one when the unintended consequences kick in like they ALWAYS do with the Hardy boys