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Str / AP
Protesters clash with Egyptian military outside the Defense Ministry in Cairo, Egypt on Wednesday, May 2, 2012.
News Analysis
With three weeks before presidential elections and less than 60 days before a new civilian president is sworn into office, Egypt is once again witnessing a round of violence that critics and activists say has become emblematic of the country's chaotic transition.
The latest flare-up came on Wednesday when armed supporters of Egypt's military rulers – many believed be hired thugs – attacked predominantly Islamist anti-government protesters outside the Defense Ministry in Cairo, setting off clashes that left 11 dead.
But Wednesday's clashes should not be dismissed as merely a conflagration of violence between rival political groupings. It has a deeper meaning – a deep mistrust between citizens and the military that continues to grow and jeopardize the country’s future.
Military mismanagement
The frustrations many Egyptians have with the military stem from its failure to chart a transparent and civilian-led transition to democracy. Instead, since former President Hosni Mubarak’s ouster in February 2011, the military has tried to play the role of steward, guardian and, at times, driver of the revolution much to the dismay of the country's revolutionary youth.
PHOTO BLOG: Several dead in Cairo as protesters attacked
The military's shortcomings have been coupled with its mismanagement of the country's day-to-day affairs through successive military-appointed civilian cabinets which hold very little power and even less credibility. The result is that few in Egypt can say the quality of their life has improved in the transition period.
Meanwhile, Egypt's parliament has yet to find itself as the people's voice. A committee tasked with writing a new constitution is in disarray. The powerful Presidential Elections Commission has been operating, at best, in a questionable manner with how it manages the upcoming presidential race. And Egypt's judiciary continues to struggle in asserting itself over the legality of the state’s actions and the military's decisions.
However, Wednesday's violence has shifted the attention away from these issues and the candidates and refocused it on the military's mismanagement.
Presidential hopefuls have suspended campaign activities; effectively curbing their time spent selling voters on their ideas and vision for the country's future.
Even Egypt's first presidential debate, which was scheduled to be televised nationwide Thursday, has been delayed, and could potentially be cancelled. The debate would be a first in the Arab world.
‘Two steps forward, one step back’
Such developments bolster the characterization of Egypt's transition as "two steps forward, one step back.” Every time there is a silver lining that gets people hopeful about a new Egypt, they are almost immediately undermined by either a deliberate or unintentional miscalculation by the ruling military council.
And the increasing fear among Egyptians is that the military may ruin what is left of an already deficient process on its way out of power. That’s why the next 60 days are critical in Egypt and must be watched ever so closely.
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Military misgivings have been ongoing in Egypt since the assassination of Anwar Sadat.
Who killed Anwar Sadat? Ayman al -Zawahiri and his fellow Muslim Brotherhood /Islamic Jihad members. The military Transitional g'ment cannot have total chaos reign in Egypt either before a President is elected and his g'ment formed. The Salafists Nours and MB aficienados have been doing sit-ins in the Abbasseya Square- the military and police put up barricades to stop the fighting. Official deathtoll at the time was 9-killed by assailants, 49 injured. Tareq Saeed (physician sit-in field hospital told 11 protestors killed.2 protestors' throats slit with knives,attacked them at Dar al-Shifaa hospital. 3rd person shot dead in hospital. Armed men attacked the sit-ins with Molotov cocktails,birdshots.."Down with the military rule-threatened to execute Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi and Chief of Staff Sami Anan. (http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/update-military-break-abbasseya-sit-al-jazeera-mubasher-reports) Furthermore read http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/sources-militants-carried-out-50-attacks-sinai-police-january-uprising Sinai police attacked,robbery of mail trucks,14 times gasline bombed etc (the mail truck robbery LE1 million)these attacks have been orchestrated from Gaza= Palestinian jihadi groups and local branch of Al Queda- Jaljalat,Army of Islam,Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades,AQ-Sinai Peninsula. Add to this foot and mouth disease (now spread to Rafah/Gaza),unemloyment huge- 1.2 million Egyptians returned from Libya/working there- furthermore Saudi Arabia employs 1.5 million Egyptians -and the Salafists/MB tried to break into Saudi Embassies in Cairo,Alexandria,Port Said- Saudis closed their embassies and 2.9 billion US$ not forthcoming- IMF is very iffy. Their tourism is down/their exports are down. Most important thing is Farewell with dead wives,14 yr old ready for marriage,no schooling for woman (chattel),street bambinos blooming.
mimi
through your rambling I see a lot of truth and history. Sadat was killed because he negotiated with Israel. The US and Israel both knew he was a dead man. Even Sadat knew it as Islamists hate Muslims that negotiate with the enemy. It was an offshoot of the Brotherhood that assassinated him, al Zawahari was a leader, and a Colonel (Islambouli I believe)in the military was the trigger man. Al Zawahari should have been executed for it, but Mubarak let him go. Had he not, perhaps 911 would not have occurred.
As to the story, I believe the Islamists will eventually take over from the military. The Brotherhood and Al Nour are intelligent, political and patient. The question I can't answer is whether they will engage in Islamist/Sharia law, or allow a more liberal society to exist. While I believe they are heading for Sharia, I hope that the young, facebook generation that started this change is strong enough to stand up to the Brotherhood.
NO!! The chaos is because the Muslim Brotherhood.< terrorist group like Hamas,hezbollah,the Taleban Al quida nad others is adding extremely dangerous fuel to the fire.They are no democrats but more fascist type mafia bullies who in the name of Allah and Mohammed want to bring a sharia dictatorship to Egypt and kill the secular society .and violate and abolish internationl treaties with Israel.There aer no moderate Islamist governments. Just look at Turkey.The military might be the best thing for now or until a secular pluralistic government can be formed. For the good of the Copts,Isreal,the Mid east ,the Egyptian people and the whole world!!
"....the result is that few in Egypt can say the quality of their life has improved in the transition period."
I guess that says it all...
While most Egyptians would be loathe to admit it, they would prefer to go back to the way things were under Mubarak than continue the way things are now. The reality is that the military is never going to allow and Islamist government to take control of Egypt. The mostly secular leaders of the military see the absolute disaster that Egypt becoming and Islamic Republic would represent. As a result, the military is not going to relinquish control. There is absolutely no way the military leaders are going to hand Egypt over to the Muslim Brotherhood and the even more extreme Salafists. Unfortunately, the majority of people in Egypt are far to ignorant and uneducated to recognize the threat represented by the Islamists. They think the Islamists are going to make their lives better, when in reality they are going to make them far worse. The Islamists want complete control over every aspect of daily life. If they are allowed to gain power they will start implementing their view of Islam as the only acceptable way to live and anyone that does not go along with it will be persecuted and/or killed. They will attempt to replace the civil judiciary with Sharia law and religious courts. The freedom of religion that existed under Mubarak would completely disappear. It is unfortunate, but apparently the only way to keep Egypt from going down this road is for the military to keep power. The general populace is just not educated enough to pick competent rulers who will have the interests of all the people in mind when they rule. While I feel that democratically elected governments are the best solution, they only work when the people have the education to make informed, competent decisions about their leadership. Unfortunately, the average education in Egypt does not appear to have reached that point based on the fact that the majority of those elected to their new parliament were Islamists. Sometimes, in a country with an uneducated electorate, a benign secular dictator is the best you can hope for.
How's that 'arab spring' working out for you?
This is more opinion than news..
another shining star of democracy in the arab world..
guess the ..Arab Spring.. was a snow job!
What can they expect after all the fighting. You have several different factions that are trying to run the country
and none of them are in the majority. That causes distrust all around and the military can not decide which one
also to trust.
It is a wonderful country to spend holidays. I have been there about 20 times, traveling almost everywhere with public transportation, taxi's and boats.
But do not make the mistake of buying property there. I know, they're very cheap. Apartments, away from the coast, are on the market from USD 15.000 upwards.
But there's a great deal of insecurity with regards to real estate. Registering is even complicated.
And the Brotherhood, being in charge now, will bring only more trouble.
Stick to package tours, and you will have a great time with very hospitable people.
Think maybe I'll just kepp my caucasion American a$$ right here at home..
at least the car jackers and crack heads wont be chopping my head off for the evening news!
The should do like the EPA - CRUCIFY FIVE OF THE PROTESTERS.
As the guy said, it is real easy to keep order for about three years.
Another example of Obama's foreign policy blunders. The "Brotherhood" is already talking about scrapping the peace treaty with Israel and they've cut off the gas to Israel.
Obama's anti-Israel agenda rolls onward...
StevenB,
Last time I checked,the people of Egypt revolted and brought down Mubarak. It was not Obama who pushed him out. In fact, what exactly would you have expected him to do, send in the troops? We've paid dearly for occupying countries far smaller than Egypt, but obviously some folks here are willing to continue that winning strategy. Of course, you're willing to enlist in the army or get your kids to join, not to mention agreeing to pay more taxes to pay for it. Right?
steven is a classic hater..long on whining about obama, short on "what should be done".
The US can certainly remove rulers in the middle east via military force...but after that our influence is pretty limited. As if obama had somehow decided to plead for egypt to remain their military dictator the army would have said "sure, of course we will".
The egyptian military threw mubarek under the bus to appease the crowd. He had a long run as dictator, he know that someday, when he had served his purpose, he'd be gone.
It is incredible how bad his ME policy has been, yet he goes on spinning and campaigning. He campaigned all his 18 months in the Senate and has been campaigning his whole term as President. I admit, not being a fan of Obama, that he has done some good things. But I can't help but believe that his good decisions were purely political and I can't trust the outcome.
His Israel policies are a joke, suggesting Israel move back to the pre 67 Border, dissing Netanyahu "off microphone", bowing to the Arabs, justifying terrorist acts against Israel with "they shouldn't be building houses".
Food for thought! Remember Obama wanting Israel to return to Pre-1967 conditions? In many ways it has. Egypt had signed a peace treay with Israel that lasted 40 or so years. That treaty is now gone. Israel now faces Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. The same way it was in May 1967. However, we now need to add in Obama's Hamas and Iran's Hezbollah in Lebanon to the mix.
Obama will be more diffcicult than Johnson and State was in 1967.
the Muslim brother hood and the salfeen(saudi ideology) are the one who killing egypt not the army
You couldn't be more wrong, Cal USA..
The responsibilty for the chaos in Egypt rests squarely on the shoulders of Uncle Sam and, by extension, President Obama.
He said he wanted to reach out to the MUslim world (to undo what he felt and called gross injustice a succession of US presidents had done to the Muslims
Mind you, although although he seemingly directed his counselling at the Egyptians, the Egyptian youths, his intended audience was the Arab nation as whole.
The Arab spring was not an accident. It's Obama's pet project.
Do you remember who shouted the louded among world leaders .."we hear YOU!...we support YOU! Oh, brave people of Egypt!..don't give up..don't lose hope...continue until victory!" during the Egyptian youths' protests in Sharir square? It was Obama! And who worked hard (arm-twisting President Mubarak) to ensure the Muslim Brotherhood was given every opportunity to rise? Obama.
It's Obama who insisted the MB be allowed to be present (and perhaps seated in the front row next to Hosni Mubarak, too!) when he gave the infamous speech at the Cairo Islamic University. Without President Obama, if Obama never became the 44th president of the US, and caused (arm-twisted the military to not stand by their leader) the down fall of former Egyptian president, the Muslim Brotherhood would never rise.
Both Libya's Gadaffi and President Mubarak of Egypt meant him or the US no harm (whatsoever) except that they stood in his way.
Correct me if I am wrong, the same scenario is now ripe in Syria.
Sorry, friend. But I thought you should know.
MSNBC is blaming the chaos in Egypt on the military? Excuse me if it wasn't for the violence perpetrated by Islamic extremists in their attempt to impose an Islamic dictatorship on Egypt there would be no chaos. MSNBC repeatedly cranks out public relations for radical Islamic terrorism. MSNBC, you are disgusting.
Does any one believe this propaganda? The Muslim Brotherhood, numerous other extremists and Obama have been pushing the buttons in Egypt. They have done everything they can to undermine the military. We will see the Muslim Brotherhood the eventual "winner" in Syria as well.
Time4
No doubt. The MB in Egypt, Islamists in some form in Syria, although I am not convinced anything could be worse than Iranian backed Assad.
Unlike the rest of the world, I still think taking out Saddam was correct, as long as we stayed to assist the implementation of a free government which we did. In places like Egypt, Libya and Syria removing despots and letting Islamists take over will always be the wrong thing. Unfortunately for our military, we need to hold the hands of the people when we remove despots.
This Arab Brotherhood and its violent takeovers reminds me of the way the Japanese Empire was taken over by militarists in the 1930s. This movement features fanatics willing to die for it regardless of nation from the West of Africa all the way through Afghanistan. Any sane, let alone patriotic Western leader has to start taking necessary actions sooner (at less cost in blood) than later to quell this. These mutts are not ambiguous when it comes to their plans for us. Many of us will not only be dead, we'll be in a pot!
To add to the above (#14) since this bizarre MSNBC software lost my stuff, I assert those people in our government whether elected, appointed, civil servant or commissioned who support the Arab Brotherhood are analogous to fifth columnists in the 1930s and should be removed for their posts. They should lose clearances, etc., and go on watch lists. Maybe they should be arrested; at least interned. This Arab Brotherhood aims to end Western civilization. They say so! It should be the business of the West, including Russia and China to quell this sooner with minimal loss of blood than wait until later and incur great loss of blood. These people mean what they say.
Women's Rights in Egypt
by Anna Mahjar-Barducci
Islamist Members of Parliament in Egypt are trying to deprive Egyptian women of their basic rights by introducing several controversial draft laws that, if passed, will bring Egypt back to the Middle Ages:
-- The website Ahram Online reports that Islamists wants to cancel Law 1 of the year 2000, known as the Khula Law, which acts as an alternative route for women whose husbands refuse to grant them a divorce. Through the Khula Law, courts grant women a divorce so long as they return the dowry paid by her husband prior to the marriage. Law 1 of the year 2000 was considered a step forward in women rights. Before that, Egyptian women did not have the right to divorce their husbands on their own terms.
Khula Law's opponents argue that a woman should not be able to ask for divorce, as it is against Islamic Sharia law. As reported by the news agency AINA, the Islamist lawmaker and main Khula Law's opponent, Mohamed El-Omda, has argued that the process is an offense to the Sharia and that is a poorly hidden attempt to Westernize Egypt.
-- According to media reports, Islamist parties are also preparing a draft law for early marriage that would permit girls to get married at the age of 14 instead of 18. As reported by Ahram Online, in the past few months, Salafist MPs have argued that there should be no minimum age for marriage for either sex, explaining that in the Sharia Law, an age for marriage is not specified.
Women activists are trying to campaign against this draft. "A license to drive, and to even vote, requires you to be 18 years old or older. Are those things more important than being a parent and forming a family?" said Azza Soliman, a legal assistant at the Centre for Egyptian Women. As reported by Ahram Online, she added she believes it is wrong to set the age of marriage below 18, or even "12, as some imply."
-- A controversial statement was instead made by Azza El Garf, a woman and a parliamentarian belonging to the Freedom and Justice Party, the political wing of the ruling Islamist group the Muslim Brotherhood ruling . Al-Garf clearly points out that she disagrees with the Egypt's 2008 ban on genital mutilation, to which she referred as a barbaric practice as beautification plastic surgery.
- Egyptian media recently reported about a draft law that would allow a husband to have sex with his dead wife within six hours after her death. Members of the Egyptian parliament said that the draft does not exist and that it was a story made up by the media. However, as reported by Al-Arabiya, the "Farewell Intercourse" is not a new proposal. Last year, a Moroccan cleric, Zamzami Abdul Bari, was the first to state that a husband could have sex with his dead wife. The Moroccan cleric argued that marriage remains valid even after death adding, perhaps implausibly, that a woman can also engage in sex with her dead husband.
-- Ahram Online also reports that Islamists have called for cancelling the implementation of CEDAW (the Convention on the Elimination of all forms of Discrimination Against Women), adopted in 1979 by the UN General Assembly; they alleged that "it contains articles that contradict Islamic Sharia."
Egypt's National Council for Women is campaigning against the above mentioned Islamist initiatives that are targeting women rights, saying that "marginalizing and undermining the status of women would negatively affect the country's human development."
Amal Al-Malki, a Qatari author, has been arguing on Arabic Al-Jazeera that the Arab Spring has so far failed women in their struggle for equality: "We have no voice. We have no visibility... And I am telling you, this is why women's rights should be codified; they should not be held hostage in the hands of political leaders who can change in a second, right? Governments should be held responsible for treating men and women equally."
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3048/women-rights-egypt
President Obama had nothing to do with this revolution. The people who went to Tahir Square expected to die. They were very surprised when they did not. This revolution was about human dignity, the rule of law, and economic opportunity. These are things we value only if they serve our interests?
I fear this revolution will get very bloody. Why? No one, The army, The Brotherhood, the Salafi, no one, is meeting the demands of the revolutionaries. The Brotherhood and Salafi took control of Parliament. They did everything possible to disgrace themselves in the eyes of the Egyptian people who now see them as power hungry thugs. Unfortunately, the army concerned itself with protecting its perks and favored status, not the revolution as they promised (unless they can show some reasons to justify their actions). Until the demands of the revolutionaries are met, chaos will rule and the possibility of bloodshed remains high. I am talking about Syria style bloodshed.
There are two major problems here. The first is that no one knows exactly what is happening. Most here believe nothing has changed. Many call this the Tora (prison) Government. Mubarak still rules. The army and everyone else wants to operate in secet. No one is talking to the Egyptian people. The press consists of editors serving as mouthpieces for their owners. No one KNOWS what is happening, no one is talking with the people. No one wants to be president. Each wants to be the next Mubarak.
The other problem is the Arab refusal to go through any period of self examination. Everything is to be blamed on "third party fingers." No one asks, "How did we do this to ourselves?" When Egyptians get their real pride back they will be able to make reforms. These have not started. Real issues are not even discussed (in a democracy, the people take part in the discussions). The Egyptians are smart enough to build the richest nation in the ME, but they must abandon the false pride that keeps them for admitting to any wrong. They need to own their mistakes before they can correct them.