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Matt Dunham / AP, file
Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron walks from number 10 Downing Street to attend Prime Minister's Questions at the Houses of Parliament in London last week. Britain's economy has fallen back into recession for the first time since 2009.
LONDON -- As Britons vote in local elections Thursday, political insiders agree that the results will provide the best report card yet on whether Prime Minister David Cameron has been able to win hearts and minds during challenging times in the U.K.
Cameron could be in for a drubbing.
"David's beginning to lose his gloss as a leader," says Tim Knox of the right-leaning Center for Policy Studies. "Despite a lack of experience in the real world, he looks statesmanlike. But there's a real lack of hard convictions at the heart of the coalition."
For two years, Cameron's Conservative Party has ruled in alliance with the centrist Liberal Democrats, after none of the three main parties won an outright majority in the House of Commons.
Even though Cameron has steered the government to a position where it's widely expected to see out its term, contrary to some expectations, the ride has not been easy.
The coalition inherited a huge fiscal deficit and embarked on an austerity program the likes of which Britain had not seen in 60 years. It has sought to fund deficit reduction by cutting expenditures – on welfare, local government, pensions – and increasing tax revenues. Two years on, and with country in its second recession in three years, the cuts feel to many like the only part of the plan that is on track.
The experiences of Stuart Bradley, an electrician from Derby, an industrial city in the English Midlands, reflect those of many throughout the country.
"It's a real struggle at the moment ... there's always an extra bill that comes through," he says. "I thought they'd try to help the people just starting out in life, but it's not worked out like that."
And recent opinion polls suggest Ed Miliband, the leader of the center-left Labour Party, is regaining some of its popularity. Some commentators put this down to the electorate's doubts about whether Cameron is clear and consistent on policy matters.
'Taken his eye off the ball'?
This perceived lack of conviction could be one of the reasons why the government has frequently been seen to flip-flop since taking power, changing its mind on issues as wide-ranging as the fate of the country’s forests and taxes on charitable donations.
"At first, having second thoughts was taken as a sign of strength and confidence," says Matt Grist, senior researcher at the think-tank Demos. "But if it happens too often, it gives the impression of not really caring. David's let too many things fall off the back of the stove."
The co-author of a biography of Cameron agrees.
"Until recently, he was very good at being prime ministerial," says James Hanning, who co-wrote 'Cameron: The Rise of the New Conservative' with Francis Elliott. "But increasingly there's the perception that he's taken his eye off the ball."
Hanning believes Cameron is much the same person he was when he took office, describing the prime minister as reliable, consistent and good under pressure.
In an interview with NBC's Brian Williams, Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain expressed the need to continue placing 'massive pressure' on Iran without resorting to military action.
But without an enforcer of some kind, or press secretary who can help shape public presentation, "Cameron has allowed policy to slip under the radar," Hanning says.
For example, during the 2010 general election, one of Cameron's main campaign messages was his desire for a "big society."
As an aspiration – that society can and should take care of its own – the idea had plenty going for it, especially as big government had grown even bigger under Labour and was blamed by many for the huge public deficit.
But two years on, many feel no closer to understanding the idea of a big society and just how it might work in everyday life, Hanning says.
Russell Cheyne / Reuters, file
The leader of Britain's opposition Labour Party Ed Miliband addresses the Scottish Labour Party Conference in Dundee, Scotland last month. If Labour does well in the election it will secure Miliband's leadership.
"He was raised in a community that looked after each other, that was seen to be caring and civic-minded. That's one of the ideas at the heart of the big society," he says.
The paradox, Hanning's says, is that same upbringing also made him suspicious of grandiose schemes and ideologies Knox, of the Center for Policy Studies, agrees that there's disconnect between person and policy.
"There are two key ingredients to government; competency and ideology," he says, "David Cameron has shown that he can lead, but on policy it is a totally different matter. In so many areas, there is a lack of clarity."
Demand for clearer policy, ideology
Issues of policy and consistency aside, Knox says he believes the prime minister compares favorably with previous Conservative leaders who led administrations during tough economic times.
But how far will voters go to punish the coalition government over the country's economic woes?
Demos' Grist says the recent shambolic handling of the budget, in which the government was seen to be grabbing money from retirees, has been particularly damaging.
"Normally, it would have been written off as being out-of-touch or incompetent," he says, "But in the context of a flat-line economy, it's really toxic."
If Labour performs well, it will help secure Miliband's leadership, enabling him to take more of the offensive when he and Cameron square off.
And if the Conservatives fare badly, it will be put down to a mid-term protest vote in the midst of a recession.
The key results, however, may lie elsewhere.
If the Liberal Democrats, who in past years have been strong contenders at the local level, are seen to lose badly (they lost 800 council seats in the 2011 elections), it may put pressure on the party leadership to differentiate itself further within the coalition.
They could push for an easing of austerity measures or possibly call for some clearer signals on policy and ideology. If that happens, it will be a true test of David Cameron as politician and statesman.
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Leave a Comment:
Cameron lost gloss? Did he have it. People may mistake an arrogant, empty bully for anything but please don't mention "gloss."
The problem, as all leaders are finding out, is a public debt that keeps growing, and growing,
and growing.......
Had an @!$%# transplant & the @!$%# rejected him.
He is the English version of G.W Bush, the historic coward, and doing exactly as Gopher Bush did, totally f^^^king the country.
WHile none of the Europeans and others in the grand Euro thing are out of the woods yet most are doing as well as can be expected except this guys leadership which is fast sinking into a second recession and can pull the rest of the world in with them. So we see leftist governments doing fairly well and the one conservative government in the tank again. Watch out and do not make the same mistake here. As Einstein said you do not send the person (or persons) to fix a problem they created.
Believe the quote is: you cannot solve the problem you have created by thinking in the same way...this is not to be pedantic, only to illustrate my following points.
The US is not 'doing' anything at all, Currently the US exposure to DEBT is so large that putting a figure to it is nigh impossible. Pretend and Taxpayer funded JOBS, particularly when those who should pay TAXES are allowed to Evade and Avoid them.
The tenuous grip, upon the US exposure to CDO default, is indeed only a hairline, and any administration, must remain in thrall to the criminal Federal Reserve...a hostage to the Wall St. bandits.
Ergo, you are seeking the solution to alleviate your problems from those who created the problem. As you say, those who created the problem are unlikely to ever FIX it, particularly when force majeure is ruled out .
That's to bad.
Cameron lost Gloss?? Did he have it? What a strange way to describe an empty, arrogant bully!
Modern Great Britian (GB) is great at producing more socialism and bad at fiscal responsibility
Britains government is a conservative government do you live under a rock? Stop cut and pasting nonsense. That socalism / Communism scare tactics went out with Reagan. As bad a s Communism is and was today I do not believe they could have done a worse job than the present day so called Conservative who are not real conservatives at all.
Modern Great Britian (GB) is great at producing more socialism and bad at fiscal responsibility. During the height of the British Empire, GB was able to export its economic troubles to the British colonies while shielding its own citizens. Today, without the vast colonies to exploit, GB must swallow and wallow in its own misery created by home-grown socialism.
Communism and Socialism are no stranger to GB. Both Karl Marx and Engel published much of their ideology or manifesto in GB even before the popularity of communism or socialism toke root in the Western world.
In the 20th Century, two world wars had destroyed several generations of youth as well as future economic vitality of GB. In the aftermath of wars, desperate Englishmen prayed for any viable economic theology to go hand-in-hand with their pentchance for socialism. Their Savior was Keynes, the father of Keynesian economic, who claimed government deficit spending on social welfare-work programs is the answer to the redistribution of wealth and revitalization of the domestic economy. Under Keynesian economic, massive government spending funded by massive taxation upon the affluent would provide the economic 'Stimulus.' His specious thesis became the foundation for the welfare-state in the Western capitalist economy. In time, the socialists of government expanded the application of Keynesian economic to include money printing, nationalization of private enterprise, bailout of WallSt bankers, and even guaranteeing private loans.
But Keynes turns out to be a false prophet. His economic theology created an economy as well as several generations of Americans dependent on government hand-outs and 'Stimulus' spending. As each addiction wore out, the government was forced once again to inject more 'Stimulus' into the economy to prevent an economic collapse. While austerity, reduction in government size and spending are the real answer, the proletariats have become accustomed to the boom-and-bust cycle rather than going 'Cold Turkey.' Like all junkies, addicts of socialism don't realize that their end is near.
You are just throwing out accusations from a bankrupt dogma. Where is your data? Obvioulsy austerity is not working in Europe.
That's a very adolescent analysis with a complete lack of understanding of what Keynes actually endorsed. Like most demagogues, you're just using Keynes as a dumping ground for anything you don't like.
Actually, socialism in GB has been in decline since the late 70's and Thatcherism & Reaganism has been in ascendency, as it has in the US. However, Ayn Randism has produced benefits only in the upper tiers of society and the deregulation, low interest + low capital gains taxes regime of Reagan-Greenspan has produced nothing but catastrophic bubbles & busts (S&L, dot.com, housing) something that was largely avoided under post-New Deal policies. Compounded by unrelenting war, that's a recipe for fiscal disaster, which we now have thanks to the Banana Republicans.
The USA deficit, Very high after WWII, was steadily reduced under all presidents until 1970s. Since Nixon, the deficit was only reduced under Carter & Clinton. It rose under all Republican presidents with Reagan and Bush the biggest offenders. Bush managed to turn a surplus under Clinton into a huge deficit that didn't become fully realized until Obama became president. According to the OBM figures, most of our current deficit stems from the Bush economic downturn, two wars, the Medicare "fix", two tax breaks for the wealthy, & TARP. Obama's share is the continuation of those policies plus the anemic stimulus that amount to less than 1% of the deficit. Until Repub's own up to the mess they've made we'll be in a continuous cycle of bubbles. They've become a party of character disorders, a particularly difficult pathology to treat.
Oh you laughable lib. yYu and your ilk are so desperate not to paint Obama as the most ineffectual leader we've had in decades, you go back to your tired spewings blaming Bush. Of course, when Obama is summarily put out of office in November, you'll suddenly start spewing about how bad things are because of President Romny. 4 years and still the libs blame Bush. Truly pathetic.
Wayfarer,
If you go to the Truman Library site and read some of Truman's political speeches from the '52 campaign, you will see that the liberal democrat rhetoric about republicans and the economy hasn't changed one iota.
That's 60 YEARS that their spiel hasn't changed!
And they are the ones calling us old fashioned?
4 years and still the libs blame Bush. Truly pathetic.
Not only libs as you call them but a lot of indies and conservatives who do not don those rose colored glasses todays conservatives have to don so they can hold their heads up. People rightly blame Bush and the republicans who like scared rats turned their backs on the American public and decided not to help this nation out of the catastrophic failure their tired worn out polidies created. Blame Bush? Of course until the mess is over and as most thinking people know that will take years. Not only is the mess they made in America they almost destroyed the economy's of the entire world. Its like putting a person in charge of the nuclear plant with an IQ of 10 to elect these fools again. If you think and thats all you are doing that Obama is bad which he is not then just think where we would be if we had elected McCain as president? Probably out hunting rats with a stick for suppper. Wake up all you right wing bots your rhetoric is laughable.
BS baffles Brains..it appears it has in this post.
breadex: those fools don't want to wake up - this is their attempt at 'revisionist history' (just like Rush Limbo and the other brain-benders). They lie as often and as badly as Cameron's torry party (WORSE, actually).
Cameron can't lose something he never had(gloss), except the illusion that he did have it.
Gloss, what gloss, lip gross,
WOW gloss, he uses lip gloss?
while the tax payer is having it tough the 1% are going to have a great time at the OLYMPICS! and how about those missle batters atop the apartment buildings!
Short of voting in a Communist, nothing is going to change in the European Union countries. They are all (to one degree or another) in debt up to their eyeballs. The only thing that is going to happen for the next decade, regardless of who is elected, is austerity, austerity, austerity. And if people don't like it, they best move because that's the way it's going to be.
I gladly disagree with you. I think we have the means and knowledge to turn things around faster than 10 years. With the means of communications we have nowadays, the infrastructure, the machines, the computers, etc...but we are not doing it because the change is not welcome by most.
The poor doesn't want further austerity and the rich doesn't want to help(investment, job creation, more taxed).
We are beyond economic and financial issues, we are escalated to power and social classes driving politics. so the status quo is on, but doesn't have to be. We are all living an illusion......that seems like reality for now. The big loser are America and European countries.
shambolic. is that a word?
Hmmm...going into a recession, who cut government spending and raised taxes before? Oh, yes, I know...Herbert Hoover. Worked out well for him, didn't it! Why do people refuse to learn from history?
Let's see now, going into a recession, who cut taxes briefly (had to raise them a lot after the recovery), increased spending, and added 1.5 million government employees at all levels? Yes...Ronald Reagan.
See how that works.
The European socialist economic model has clearly failed. Changing demographics (growing ratio of retirees to working taxpayers) and excessive regulation of business mean that revenue is inadequate to cover govt expenditures. Introduce austerity measures to an already weak economy (laying off thousands of govt workers in the process) and things get even worse. Too many leaders have not placed enough emphasis on what it takes to keep private enterprise thriving and growing, and their economies have suffered for it. We will all be suffering from the debt hangover.
Oh, and everything above applied to the U.S. as well...
Cameron was a buffon, a conservative without a conscience/
What Cameron has shown us is the U.K. right wing is just as corrupt and incompetent as the U.S. right wing.
No new, or good ideas.
Let's just keep doing what we always did.
Sadly, Cameron is no Tony Blair. For all of his bad decision to follow Bush, Tony was head and shoulders better than Cameron. Somthing else to dam the big W for, trashing Blairs career.
Blair's only failing was to lick Bush's behind. Economically he was trackking good but got beat down just like we did here when it came to controlling the banking industry. Only way out of this is to reign in and force tha banks to split up into smaller entities as there is no competition left after Bush's TARP gave them enough money to buy most of the smaller banks.
Some Ladies fall for the cutest rogues, Hilarious Hilary...and thousands of other dumb blondes/ Brunettes or whatever...cuddly Tony, was nothing but a matinee idol...all talk no action worth a damn.
Sexist to say the least you should be ashamed
When I read about Cameron's flip-flopping and lack of convictions, it only reminds me of one person ... Mitt Romney. Read the article and take heart America ... Romney will be VERY BAD for the United States.
Morman or Muslim both terrorise women to obedience, or else, mainly because they are not Man enough for Equality....was G. W. Bush, the historic coward, a Morman? he certainly behaved like one.
Cmon all religions do the same thing. A muslim woman in a Burka and a NUN in a habit walking behind the male religious leader are both the same.
Not only has PM Cameron lost his gloss, the nation of the UK has lost its gloss as a civilized nation. When reading about the UK on a daily basis they are stuck not knowing which war the want to be involved in. The UK lust for war is only surpassed by the US and Israel. The US and the Israeli's love war and will do anything to start another.
Cameron tried to assume some kind of world leadership in the attack on Libya.Beyond that he has never had any gloss.And the less said about Miliband the better.Long live Pippa Middleton to rescue Britain from oblivion !
What everyone is forgetting in these posts is that Cameron was NOT elected as PM by a clear margin: the vote was split and so is his power at governing. I'M NOT MAKING EXCUSES FOR THIS LOUT, however.
You can kind of compare it to the minority of Repubs running their 'establishment majority' Repubs in this country: at times (though not very often) the policies are 'more sane' than others. You can almost tell whose ideas are actually coming to the fore and being implemented. (1500 birth control/abortion bills; failed bids to raise the debt ceiling; failed bid to support construction/rebuilding projects, etc). The Repubs in this country are much like the Torry: they talk big and tell everyone what they WANT to hear, get elected and stray off course from what they said, don't deliver real solutions and instead wage 'social wars' and then have nothing but austerity plans that FURTHER cripple their economies. They definitely have a knack for shooting themselves in BOTH feet.
No matter who wins what. Europe including GB is in deep s**t and any changes of office holders are nothing more than shaffling of chairs on Titanic. Cutting and slashing of social programs will continue regardless of which party will win these or future elections. British electricians better get used to lean times and living on shoestring budgets.
Yep, I couldnt have said it any better. All of Europe is in a debt crisis and its rolling from one country to another, slowly reaching the larger ones like France and Spain that are way tougher to bail out.