That's hilarious! Thanks for the good laugh.

On a related note, it's also pretty funny that the Japanese are supposedly headed for "extinction" and won't have any kids by 3011. Am I actually supposed to take their news release seriously? It seems to lack a certain... shall we say, LOGIC?

This is what happens when you take relatively short term trends and try and use them to extrapolate over long periods of time. You end up getting nonsensical predictions like this one. You could make similar predictions regarding the extinction of the Chinese based on their current one child policy. This policy, if continued and enforced, would result in a halving of their population every generation. The problem with projecting this over a long period of time is that policies, like birth rates, change based on socio-economic conditions. China's policy was instituted to halt their explosive population growth which was rapidly leaving them without enough resources to support their people. As the problem eases, so will the policy. The same type of logic applies to Japan. The poor economic conditions have meant that people can not afford larger families. Once the economic conditions improve, the birth rate will go back up.

It is ridiculous to put any stock in these predictions that are using short term data to project a long term result.

@JS

Lower birthrates are typical for developed economies like Japan although. cultural factors play a role as well. Also if you read the article you'll notice the part it says about Japan's population being on the decline since 1975. The Japanese economy was booming for a good portion of the years in between then and now. The same thing is happening in many European countries with low birthrates and would be happening in the US were it not for immigration and recent immigrant populations having typically higher birthrates (bringing up the US average.)

For what it's worth the prediction is to bring attention to the fact that Japan's population is in decline and not so much with it being a realistic possibility.

@Dust other than Germany, France, and Switzerland. I wouldn't exactly call European nations booming with their low birthrates. On another note, I actually think it is good to have a population decline as opposed to most nations having a population incline which is getting to living conditions like India and China for most of the people there because the less people you have in a nation, the less resources would be used up.

I'm sure people in the year 1012 also made very accurate predictions about the population in 2012.

Is this supposed to scare the Japanese into having more kids? It seems to me like population declines are a good thing. Besides, lots of people want to have kids, why do we need to put pressure on those who don't?

Japan is committing long term Hara Kiri. It's what happens when you convince women that having kids is a bad thing and give the men the idea that kids are expensive mistakes.

You think this is a joke, do some reading about Spain and it's empty towns.

Jibaro, why don't you do some reading about rural United States and its empty towns? That doesn't mean we are headed to extinction anymore than Japan, at least not in the way this study implies.

Ridiculous, headline grabbing extrapolation, as the researchers well know, even if the msnbc staff does not.

Now a series of catastrophic events and not just Japan? Whole 'nother story.

I do agree that the data projection are lofty but it does make a very important point.... The rate of aging v death v birth has been more "lopsided" for some time in US... take employment figures... one factor is the rate of employment versus population: The amount of Jobs available for the emerging workforce (out of high-school, College) has not kept pace with population. This is one of reasons the Job# are anemic. Also the work force is getting older and earning less. (many retirees have reentered the work force for economic reasons often at lower salaries) Couple this with the Abortion rate in this country and the fact that they MUST raise the eligible age for SSI benefits. Their is not "enough young" to support the economy nor the aging... . It sounds like something out of a science fiction novel.

Yeah, and everyone was supposed to own a jet pack by now, too.

well we won't be around to see it!!:)

This is statistics gone stupid. There will be plenty of children under 15 in Japan, as long as a Japan happens to exist.

This has to be one of the most useless, asinine research study ever performed. I thought that we were the only country that wastes taxpayer money on pointless research. Think back 999 years and all of the changes that have occurred in the world since that time. Europe was still in the Middle Ages. People still thought the world was flat. The American continent had not been discovered. WWI and WWII had not been fought. Etc., etc., etc. So, we are supposed to believe that nothing is going to happen that will change this trend in 999 years? For all we know, mankind itself will be extinct by 3011.

Lazy 'researchers' use a linear trajectory to guess future birth rate. In reaily, there will be no children in Japan in the next 50 years if Fukushima's fuel rods above Building #4 are exposed and Tokyo gets evacuated.

it is really hard to believe, that someone actually wrote this article, does it also mean that the Japanese will no longer have sex by that time, I find it hard to believe that MSNBC, would actually publish such a foolish article, I am a little embarrassed that I am commenting on it.

The volume of intelligent writing is decreasing at an increasing rate though readers are clever enough to realize that it can, while approach, never equal zero.

Gee, I hope the Japanese have time to turn this trend around. In other news: In the year 2525...

And just what makes these people "researchers?" What did they research? I have been researching sunlight in the US for the past 5 months. Extrapolating my findings my research indicates that at the current rate, the US will be in full sunlight all the time. And for my research, I realize I made a grave mistake: I failed to apply for a government grant first! Damn, I could use the money to buy more suntan lotion.

@ Phenomenal

You misunderstood me. I wasn't saying that a low birthrate causes an economic boom. Quite the contrary in fact excessively low birth rates can an have adverse economic impact. That's the point of this study to point out how low the birthrate is in Japan (and that current trends have that dropping even further.) Generally as an economy develops out of an agrarian based society birthrates drop. Well developed economies in the West have lower birthrates than the rest of the world in general. This is the main reason why most population projections have world population growth leveling out midcentury as more of the world's economies become more developed.

Actually, that may be a good balance - since they will probably have several million over 300 years old by then. Those under 80 would be the "new kids."

Those statistics can only come true if not one woman gets pregnant for 14 years in the whole country. That isn't going to happen unless everyone for 14 years, doesn't want to have a child.

It is also like saying since Life Expectancy went from about 30, 1000 years ago, to over 70 in recent years that people will have 'human' life expectancy of 175 in the year 3012 .....

Now if they download people brains in to computer robot bodies and brains by then, all bets are off ......

no young sumo wrestlers? I am so disappointed. I will have less fun then.

Elpea..........great comment.

Wonder what they did predict...........those ancient statisticians

It's what happens when you convince women that having kids is a bad thing and give the men the idea that kids are expensive mistakes.

Actually, its what happens when women are expected to take on the task of child rearing by themselves while the men are out drinking with their work buddies late at night.

JS in SDThis is what happens when you take relatively short term trends and try and use them to extrapolate over long periods of time. You end up getting nonsensical predictions like this one.

Wow, seems like most of the posters on this board totally missed the point! The researchers used the projections to make a point to raise public awareness of the issue and NOT to be intended as a literal forecast! Obviously, birth rates will not fall to zero unless the human species goes extinct.

LOL, I think Americans have become so jaded and ideological they think everything is literal. Considering the off-the-rails Republican political campaign with more-crazy things being said daily I guess I can see why!

Hopefully the "reseachers" won't reproduce as they are idiots to write predictions that far out. Based on the nuclear accidents I predict those Japanese children alive will have mutated with 4 eyes and be a superior race...

The only way this works out is if the birthrate in Japan is 0 births per year for 15 years. Seriously?!? Stupid.

Hopefully the "reseachers" won't reproduce as they are idiots to write predictions that far out.

That is an ironic statement. You calling researchers idiots when it is you that doesn't "get it."

The only way this works out is if the birthrate in Japan is 0 births per year for 15 years. Seriously?!? Stupid.

No, your math is wrong. Again, ironic.

I'm not sure if people taking this literally are just stubbornly literal or maybe not well educated, or perhaps the story wasn't well written enough to make the point. You have to also take it in context of the culture it was intended for... the point is it is a rhetorical point and a way to raise awareness about the falling birth rate. If you don't get it perhaps you never will. It just looks silly when you take it literally.

Overlord: Blue is red. So, if you take it literally, then blue is read. But if you don't take it literally then blue is green? pink? purple? whatever color you want? So the point is? Do really believe that if there are births during a 15 year period that the birthrate is zero? So, some births are the same as no births. The bottom line is that you make no sense. But, when libs argue that 2 plus 2 sometimes equals 5, sometimes equals 3, or whatever number you want, but not necessarily 4, then anything is possible. Please explain what is wrong with the math of if the youngest person is 15 years old, then it's been 15 years since someone was born. Well, in fairness to you, I suppose that you could say that the decline under socialism could result in the probability of living 15 years to be zero percent. Thus their may be births, but none of them would live.

then underage drinking is eliminated for the society?

@Overlord

I'm glad at least one other person on here understands why this is significant... The headline is attention grabbing, but misleading for the point these researchers were trying to make. Unfortunately it seems that most people can't read past that.

JS in SD

If life continues in China as they are today, China may be yet another land mass that is uninhabitable by man that is unless all products needed to sustain man are imported. Nothing like taking perfectly good land and turning it into a garbage heap! What country is next? Do we have the natural resources to continue living the way we are all living for the next 100 years? What happens when we sell off to the highest bidder what it takes to sustain our generations? Maybe some one will finally invent time and space travel so we can start all over again somewhere else? For me, I can only hope God has created that place for me.

Please explain what is wrong with the math of if the youngest person is 15 years old, then it's been 15 years since someone was born. Well, in fairness to you, I suppose that you could say that the decline under socialism could result in the probability of living 15 years to be zero percent. Thus their may be births, but none of them would live.

Completely incoherent rant. You still don't get it! In fact, I'm not sure you're sober. This is almost entertaining.

Ok, let me summarize for you. Japan has a problem with low birth rates and they are looking at declining populations in the future. This has been the case for awhile now. These guys released this "prediction" to draw public attention to the issue. It wasn't meant to be literal! THE CLOCK IS A FREAKING GIMMICK TO MAKE PEOPLE NOTICE THE PROBLEM NOT TO PREDICT THE EXTINCTION OF THE JAPANESE!

Ahhh, never mind I doubt it will ever sink in...

Sounds like Cerebrally Superior's arrogant cousin.

Wow Overload, seems like none of these posters think like you thankfully. You rant and attach like a tick to each post, do you ever have an original thought? Sometimes I wonder about the delusional people like you on this site but I try to forget so I can sleep.........Don't take life so seriously.

Overlord - take a freakin chill pill. You aren't the internet police. I get the point they're trying to make. They just were stupid in the way they went about trying to do it.

Here, let me try:

"Due to the average rate of global warming, in a million years the earth will vaporize. Please, line up here to buy your tin foil hats. Cash only please. . . "

I guess the point is .... that there is no point. As I said before, there is no "research" here. I guess the idea of being over the top to make a point is a concept that libs do have a grasp on. Well, at least when they believe it supports their point of view. For most people all you have to say is that the population is declining and this could spell trouble if ...... (and then state whatever you want to say your point is). No need to go to the absurd. Kind of like that fictitious Doomsday Clock. About the only point made by the thing is that those who are in charge of it like to run around screaming "the sky is falling, the sky is falling." They apparently aren't smart enough to realize that it has no credibility and just make them look crazy.

@witchrunner

The "research" is that Japan's population is in decline and that the rate of decline is accelerating.

El_Duderino

Overlord - take a freakin chill pill. You aren't the internet police. I get the point they're trying to make. They just were stupid in the way they went about trying to do it.

I feel perfectly chilled! The way these guys went about it may seem "stupid" to you but in Japan, with a very different culture, this is likely to be an effective campaign. Perhaps being culturally insensitive is just as "stupid" as this gimmick.

You can get your freak on with contraceptives but where would be the fun in that.

Story of Ranman's life, especially trying to get his shiggy diggy on in MSNBC

>greentexting on MSNBC comments

I seriously hope you guys don't do this.

A friend of mine lives in Japan, he says that people over there live too long. He says that deprives the young ones from finding good jobs. Its just better to let the old people die first and then have kids so they can have jobs.

...and figures don't lie, but liars figure. What a stupid article.

Its just better to let the old people die first and then have kids so they can have jobs.

Phenomenal112 - it will be interesting to hear your viewpoint on that if you ever reach it to age 80 and are healthy, mentally acute and still enjoying life. Oh, that's right. You aren't mentally acute now, so it's unlikely that you will be when you are old.

Lol scales that what my friend said. I have no Idea how Japanese people live and how healthy they are on a regular basis or at age 80. Studies suggest they are the healthiest people in the world, but my friend he is not your regular guy, he hangs out with the youths going to night clubs etc. He is very friendly. He says thats the kind of reception he gets from the young people choosing not to get married which is traditional, and deciding not to have children when married in many cases.

Children's Day is already a holiday in Japan.

You'll be seriously way, way gone. The story is about 999 years from now, not 99.

Sorry Pokerproshawn, but the story is about 999 years in the future you might be reincarnated by then and will have to deal with it! Ha!

That addition is higher math it seems..........

It depends on the life expectancy of Japanese at that point in time. If life expectancy will be 200 years, there won't be anybody left by 3211.

That's exactly what I was thinking. I was looking for a timestamp on the article to see if they brought it back from April 1.

You must realize that this article was written by msnbc.com staff writers who have very little intelligence and common sense. They actually accept "research" that states that no women in Japan will get pregnant over a 15 year period. Unbelievable, but just more evidence that they are brain dead.

You cannot project trends that far in the future. In the next CENTURY...

RobertPlattBell - the article is written about an event that might occur 999 years from now, not 99 years. That is the next MILLENNIUM, Einstein.

yes robert, continue mocking peoples math skills from your high horse. that comment was better than an excerpt from who framed roger rabbit.

So, if I weighed 120 lbs. and went on a diet and lost 5 lbs. per month, by these scientists' rationale, at the end of 24 months, I would weigh 0?

Okay...now I understand! NOT!

I'm getting increasingly terrified by how many commentators can't do basic, BASIC math. 99 years?! Really? I mean, the the article EVEN did the math for you! I guess reading comprehension is gone as well. Maybe we need to stop having kids here too.

This article from Reuters points out the change in population growth in Japan from about 15% in 1945 to .02% currently. Other articles I have read agree with the MSNBC article, the Japanese are well below the birth rate required to sustain their population. In 100 years there will be half as many Japanese people.

This article from Reuters points out the change in population growth in Japan from about 15% in 1945 to .02% currently.

Much of that is due to changes in the Japanese society in general. For example, the population was more rural in 1945 than it is today as it was in most countries, including the USA. There is nothing wrong with having fewer people on the planet. It will make life better for everyone...less pollution, less strain on natural resources, fewer mouths to feed. It might give the planet a chance to correct some of the damage that mankind has wrought.

The problem with Earth is not it's population, but how they behave.

yep.

Logical.............love it............maybe they will have carts to move them around like on the "Wally" movie

Or Pakistan, Iran, Syria, etc.

are you speaking from a past experience krazyd111? it pays to have a peak under the hood before you sign off on something like marriage.

As long as you and your liberal whackjob friends promise to never reproduce, the planet will be just fine.

I'm sure the conservative right will keep OVERPRODUCING until the planet is doomed to extinction by pollution.

There will always be at least a couple of people popping out kids.