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EPA/MOHAMED MESSARA
Supporters of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi celebrate in Cairo's Tahrir Square after the Brotherhood claimed victory in the presidential election on Monday.
Analysis
CAIRO, Egypt – It could be the end of Egypt as we know it. Early, still unofficial, but credible results, show that the Muslim Brotherhood has won Egypt’s presidency.
However the military has made a series of decrees that threaten to usurp the new president’s power – setting the stage for a major showdown between the remnants of the old regime who make up the ruling military council and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Still, the biggest country in the Arab world is poised to start its first experiment in Islamic democracy.
Many Egyptians are celebrating – after all, a majority of voters elected the Muslim Brotherhood’s firebrand candidate Mohammed Morsi.
Other Egyptians are calling this a “black day” that will set back Egypt a hundred years.
Oh, that’s an exaggeration some Egyptians and Middle East analysts argue.
The Brotherhood will have to be answerable to future voters, they say.
Democracy will keep the group in check, they say.
The Brotherhood will be forced to adopt a center of the road policy, they say.
The Brotherhood is really quite moderate, they say.
Egypt will end up like Turkey, with an Islamist government, but secular laws, they say.
If Egyptians don’t like the Brotherhood, protesters can just go back to Cairo’s Tahrir Square and get rid of it, they say.
I wouldn’t count on it.
A power struggle is underway between the Egyptian military and the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood, which says its candidate, Mohammed Morsi, won the country's first free presidential election. NBC's Richard Engel reports.
Democracy if undemocratic group comes to power?
The Muslim Brotherhood is a fundamentalist group. It is anti-American at its core, despite recently sending delegations to the United States to win friends. The Brotherhood is vehemently anti-Israel. The group is also largely anti-democratic. The Brotherhood was happy to use elections to gain power, but it believes wholeheartedly in Islamic law, the immutable rulings from God that are not subject to ballot boxes or opinion polls.
Military guards Egypt power as Islamists claim victory
If democracy brings an undemocratic group to power, is that a victory for democracy?
The Brotherhood has a few basic tenets which will likely be at the core of future policy, basic truths that shape its worldview.
They include:
- America is at war with Islam.
- Women are lustful creatures who need to be veiled and controlled.
- Israel is a temporary abomination that needs to be – and one day will be – excised from the world.
- Hamas, the Palestinian resistance group that the U.S. considers a terrorist group, is fighting a heroic struggle.
- Islamic law is fair to all minorities, including Christians since it proscribes tolerance and protection for people of “the book.” (Christians, by the way, don’t think they need to be “tolerated” or “protected” which they believe implies they are second class citizens who need to be accepted and defended like village idiots).
- Secrecy is tantamount.
- Victory comes through patience.
On the positive side, the Brotherhood is basically a working man’s group that supports Egypt’s legions of poor, often ignored by former President Hosni Mubarak. If Mubarak's former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik had won the election, Egypt would very likely have turned violent, with an unpredictable outcome.
I also wouldn’t count on Egypt ending up like Turkey. In Istanbul, women often dress provocatively and there are bars on nearly every corner. The country is economically booming. The Muslim Brotherhood is much more hard-line than Turkish Islamists.
AP Photo/Ahmed Gomaa
Mohammed Morsi and his supporters celebrate his apparent victory in the Egyptian presidential election at his campaign headquarters in Cairo, Egypt on Monday.
Brotherhood vs. military showdown
The Egyptian military is terrified of the Brotherhood. Morsi has repeatedly said he will purge all parts of Egyptian society of “remnants” of the former regime.
The military worries that once Morsi is sworn in, he will try to imprison or at least sideline senior military officers. Sunday night, as votes were being counted showing Morsi in the lead, the military launched a controversial preemptive strike.
In a decree that is very likely illegal, the military declared that the new president does not have the authority to declare war or remove military officers. The military declared its autonomy and immunity in a blatant attempt to castrate the new president before he takes office.
The power struggle between Morsi and the military that is now under way will likely take months to sort out. Morsi and the military will battle over the parliament, the constitution and Sunday night’s decree.
While it’s too early to know who will win this showdown, it seems unlikely that the military can hang on to its self-appointed authorities – as every Egyptian knows the kinds of powers a president should and should not have.
Ahmed Youssef / EPA
Egypt's popular uprising over 18 days of popular protest culminated in the downfall of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak on Feb. 11, 2011. CLICK ON THE PHOTO TO SEE A FULL SLIDESHOW
A new dawn
It’s a new dawn for Egypt. If the military truly feels threatened, it might stage a real coup, sending tanks into the streets, instead of what many Egyptians have called its attempted “soft coup,” through decrees and court decisions in recent weeks.
The Muslim Brotherhood talks about understanding and moderation. After declaring victory last night, Musri said he will be inclusive. Morsi wants to reassure Egyptians and Egypt’s allies that the country will remain stable. If pushed, however, the Muslim Brotherhood’s true colors will show.
Good luck, Egypt! Critical choices and potential major changes lie ahead.
Already Monday, Shafik’s campaign started contesting the early, unofficial results, as Egypt hangs in the balance.
More world news from msnbc.com and NBC News:
- Pro-bailout party prevails in Greek election
- In Egypt, little enthusiasm for presidential finalists
- 14 missing off Indonesia after 10-foot wave hits boat
- Questions swirl as Saudi Arabia buries crown prince
- Video: Obama, Putin meeting looms large for Syria
Follow us on Twitter: @msnbc_world
Leave a Comment:
So this is the democracy in the Middle East, as per President Bush's vision. (Or have you forgotten already?)
But democracy is not nice, and it is not neat.
It is, however, preferable to oppression by dictators, tyrants, and despots.
So this is the democracy in the Middle East, as per President Bush's vision. (Or have you forgotten already?)
But democracy is not nice, and it is not neat.
It is, however, preferable to oppression by dictators, tyrants, and despots.
What do you think the Islamists (MB) are? Wait til you see how this turns out. Can you spell Afghanistan?
This election is a choice between two visions for the future of America: One vision is for continuation of the progressive vision of a balance between equality and freedom as the moral foundation of justice, and a more recent conservative vision of an entitlement due the wealthy and the equivalence of corporations to the rights and protections of natural persons under the Constitution.
The free market is a myth: if it isn't regulated by government to prevent fraud, it is regulated by the corporate oligarchy to prevent competition.
Free means not having to go to jail for fraud and theft.
This election is a moral choice between affiliation or aggression, empathy or egotism, service or selfishness, cooperation or competitiveness.
A progressive future is one in which government is a custodian of the public trust and advocates for justice; where justice is a balance between equality and freedom. Government as a custodian of the public trust means that everyone plays by the same rules and that everyone is equal before the law. Public trust means the rights of the people to preserve and protect the common property of the United States is not severable to the interests of privatization. Public trust means that a corporation has no rights except those given to it by law and does not have equal standing with a natural born person under the Constitution.
The conservative future is one of a hostile corporate takeover with privatization of government functions. The corporate takeover means that having wealth is an effective barrier to others participating in the process of government. It means that government would no longer serve the interests of the community but collaborate with the wealthy corporate owners to establish a separate set of laws that entitle them to preferential treatment while creating barriers to competition by eliminating opportunities for others.
The tale of two visions is the difference between a government of the people, by the people and for the people, and a government run by a plutocracy of corporate power.
Yawn.....
Ok dls--what would they do with folks who commit fraud and theft in YOUR world?
So much for my trip to see the pyramids that I've always dreamed of...
The new order in Egypt will be fundamental Islam, what's going to happen to "Women" in this new order of Islamist Fundamentalist?????????????????????????????????????????
"Egyptians face a new Egypt under the Muslim Brotherhood"
Translation: Sucks to be female in Egypt
No such thing as Democracy when it is tainted by the Political System..Just look at the USA..Enough said.
And what are we paying egypt to be our friend these days, 4,5,9 bill.ion dollars a year, yea.
Now our corrupt, crooked, non functional poor excuse for a congress can continue to pay them off, only this time congress will be paying islamist terrorists, something they love to do so the usa can continue engaging in wars with them.
And as egypt takes 10 steps backwards, the usa is celebrating because this means another country for us to war monger in and waste billions more of our dollars, and lets not forget that these islamist nut jobs also hate israel and want to destroy it.
And progress in the world marches on.
Well, Jim--we have to pay them at least as much as we pay Pakistan to be our "friend"--otherwise that wouldn't be fair now, would it?
What a joke. If Egyptians protest the Brotherhood, they will be round up and cut into little pieces and thrown in the Nile River. The Brotherhood will make Mubarak look like a Saint.
Alan, I agree. These guys are very cunning, but very decisive.
Yup. Anybody who takes anything they say for public consumption as true gets to take a vacation at the North Pole apprenticing with Santa's elves!
Deep in my heart, I believe this is the type of government that our Muslem Socialist President would love to see happen in the U.S.A. I cannot believe that the American people would re-elect this President to another term after seeing the results of his first 3 1/2 years in office. This may be our last chance guys because our country cannot suffer thru another term like he has just delivered!
Quite frankly, I don't think we can suffer through another one of your twisted diatribes.
I agree, 100%.
You do know that one of his Harvard professors just denounced him and called for his defeat in an 8 1/2 minute video on YouTube, right? Ouch! That's gotta hurt.
S U P E R . . . . deja vu
. . . Feels like 1932 - it's Springtime in Germany . . .
.
A recipe for a sick society:
And, if you believe the fifth bullet point is true, I have some shoreline property (uhh, swampland) to sell to you in Florida.
What I want to know is why the writer/editor of this piece doesn't know the difference between "basic truths" and "basic beliefs". There were a heck of a lot of people who believed the world was flat for a LONG time, and that still did not make it a "basic truth". Objectivity is apparently not that important at MSNBC.
Read what JS in SD has to say. My wife and I travel Egypt quite often (though we won't be now) and we have several friends in the country. JS in SD has a good understanding of the situation on the ground there. Mubarak, as imperfect as he was, was the best choice for Egypt, for the time being. He understood the real threat to the nation.
Just what this world needs, another radical muslim country that only breeds murderers and rapists. The typical Muslim Creedo.
Egypt is not now nor has it ever been noted for its brains or intellectual community, and now the egyption terrorists have and are showing to the rest of the world that they prefer the old methods of subjugating, repressing and mutilating their women and female children just as this ignorant country has done for centuries.
Way to go egyptians, you have proven once again to all of the world just how stupid you really are.
There is going to be an exodus. Guess where they will come, because they are too cowardly to fight for justice and against Sharia Law? The United States, that's where.
Ah ... Cradle of Civilization ... Pyramids ... ah ...
... Nope, never been noted for their brains ... absolutely
.
Jim, I don't think calling Egyptians stupid is warranted. I know plenty of Egyptians personally who didn't want this outcome and feared it from day one of the protests in the square.
Well, for starters, the Egyptians are gonna be in a long line behind the Libyans and Syrians.
It is shameful that yellow journalism backing the Obama admin's stance in favor of MILITARY DICTATORSHIP is alowed on this website's front page. I'd expect to see this sort of fear mongering from FOX, but not from a fairly credible site like this. I was in Egypt during the Revolution, and beyond all questions of democracy, minority rights, and the problem of Israel. Let me spell a few things out for you and the rest of the Zionist controlled American media:
Israel IS a temporary apartheid state.
The Resistance to their occupation IS heroic.
Egypt is a goddamned sovereign state, and if they want to be ruled by the MB as they clearly do, they should have that right.
What you, personally, are doing here is justifying a brutal military coup in which thousands will die or suffer torture. You do this at the biding of your capitalist masters who wish to maintain hegemony over Egypt despite the strides its people have made towards self determination, which is more important than Democracy.
The Brotherhood IS the Democratic choice. It's either them or a return to American backed dictatorship. I would rather give the MB a chance to lead Egypt into freedom and risk Egypt mesing up their own country than have 30 more years of Zionist-conspiracy to keep Egyptans oppressed.
You need to seriously consider the fact that your words and those of other talking heads like you are helping to support the defeat of Egyptian sovereignty and the return of Mubarak style dictatorship with Obama holding the reigns. That is unacceptable and I hope that the Brotherhood wll defeat the forces of Shafik, bought and sold by Obama.
Egypt deserves sovereignty. I am sorry that you do not think so. It is this arrogant, imperiaist attitude thati s why the Brotherhood hates the US. That and the fact that we funded the Mubarak dictatorship for decades, that might have something to do with it. Why don't you bother to mention that the US helped torture and murder Egyptians and continues to do so today? You act as if enmity for the US is just a random occurence and not an example of cause and effect.
Jarret, I think you fail to understand the totality of the situation. There is only one reason that MB won: that is because the other candidate had ties to the former regime. Even then, I bet the election results are quite close. MB will do far worse to Egypt than Mubarak. And, that comes from many Egyptians I know personally.
Yes, Egypt does deserve sovereignty and I even agree that Israel in tantamount to an apartheid state; I in no way agree that the MB is any different, however. MB has no plans to lead Egypt to freedom. That has never been the organization's agenda.
Egypt is the largest Arabic housing project in the world...crowded and desperately poor...let's hope the new regime refuses to take OUR money...as for their "threats" against Israel..I'm sure there's an Israeli nuke with Cairo's name on it!!!
Deport ALL Muslims from the Western World!!!
Another government taken over by the religious right, freedom will be curtailed, thinking forbidden, laws to oppress women will be passed and the nation shall go back to the dark ages again. Religion run by man instead of God is a sin against all mankind.
The priests and Mullahs will become corrupt and destroy their people.
Did you expect anything less of Islam? This is a threat to our nation, and of course, Obummer supported their establishment of power, actually encouraged it. So much for the wishing well politics of Obummer and his cronies. Out with him in November.
Again I ask the question. Where are the revolution supporters??? Where are you? You know the Americans who stood for this revolt. The people who chanted Valley forge and the shot heard round the world. The people who sceamed "death to Gadafi and Mubarik". Where are you now? The people who knew in advance (as we all did) that Muslim Brotherhood awaited us. What do you think now? Now that we have several more entire countries full of these idiots. Read their doctrine. There are now 40 million more who will have to be
Not to be nitpicky, Anthony--but I think Egypt's population is closer to 80 million.
No one is really surprised that the Brotherhood has taken over..........are they?? The folks I listen to on the news all said it would happen.........only the liberal press hoped for a different outcome.........or did they??
So much for the billions in aid we gave Egypt to keep them pro american....now the anti-american Muslim brotherhood is in control....US needs to stop trying to buy democracy in other countries around the world and worry about the good ole US which is going down the tubes.
We took out Saddam and what happened? They got rid of Mubarik. What happened? We helped oust Gadafi. What happened? Some people are not ready for freedom. Plain and simple. The dictators are a necessary evil to control the people. Like it or not , it is the truth.
Had Hitler gone after the muslims rather than the jews, today many would understand his early vision.
to all of you making comparisons between us and them, the US is NOT a democracy! we are a REPUBLIC!