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Mohamed Messara / EPA
A man paints the flag of Egypt and heart on the face of an Egyptian woman during demonstration at Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt on June 25, 2012.
Analysis
CAIRO -- Egypt's presidential elections are a watershed moment for the country, an unfinished revolution and political Islam. Some will look at this moment and say it fell short of expectations, others will look at it and say it exceed some expectations. In the final analysis, how Egypt's elections measure up depends on the measuring stick one uses to assess its importance.
If you strip away the politics for a moment and look simply at the mechanics of the electoral process, I think it's safe to say most Egyptians feel the process -- a purely mechanical process -- was free, transparent and had integrity. While citing some irregularities, The Carter Center, a nongovernmental organization, didn't discredit the overall integrity of the process. Compare this to elections in Egypt over the past years and you will see why it was crucially important for the state's institutions to prove it can carry out an election professionally and credibly in the eyes of its own citizens.
Mohamed Messara / EPA
Supporters of Presidential candidate Mohamed Morsi demonstrate in Cairo, Egypt, on June 25, 2012.
People boycotted the elections, and yes, the incoming president does not have a large mandate, but that's politics not process. At the end of the day, 25 million Egyptians voted and they believe their voice mattered and made a difference. That is a historic first in a country where 85 million voices were rarely heard.
On to the other measuring stick: political Islam. Egypt is the birthplace of political Islam. The Muslim Brotherhood, which inspired Islamist political movements around the world, was born in Egypt. For the better part of 80 years, the Muslim Brotherhood has been part of the fabric of Egypt, shaping the identity of the country and its citizens. There is only problem: the state refused to acknowledge it. For decades, while the group was banned from participating in political life, it played a role in shaping the social identity of the country instead.
Eric Trager, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, studies Egyptian opposition groups. He speaks with NBC News' Charlene Gubash about what the Muslim Brotherhood's victory means for the U.S. and the region.
Egypt's big turn under the Muslim Brotherhood
For years, the Brotherhood's leadership was routinely killed, tortured, imprisoned and harassed by secular-authoritarian-military dominated governments. Today, that very same military-led government has conceded the Muslim Brotherhood can no longer be ignored, marginalized or suppressed and in fact they are entitled to run the process -- with some limitations. This is important because Arab countries have rejected political Islam as a system of governance and many are skeptical of it.
That is a valid concern. But if one wants political Islamic movements to falter, they must be tested in the political arena. As targeted organizations by dictatorial regimes, Islamist movements thrived on being the victims and translated that grassroots sympathy into support. They then used that support to derive their legitimacy. Today, they are no longer victims or the underdogs in Egypt. Now they will be tested and judged based on their performance, not their myth. Egyptians will and can hold their officials responsible -- that's a lesson learned from the Jan. 25, 2011 revolution.
Mohammed Morsi, Egypt's next president: Protesters' bloodshed will not be in vain
Is that a risk worth taking? Will the Muslim Brotherhood ruin Egypt? Will the Muslim Brotherhood impose Islamic law? Will the Muslim Brotherhood go to war and destabilize the region? The answer is no. If there is one thing that has happened in Egypt since Jan. 25, it has been the fragmentation of power across the country. There has been an explosion of vibrant media, a flowering of civil society organizations, a robust and legal activism that was once dormant. Where once a handful of business and political elites ruled the country, the climate in Egypt today is still bringing new forces and people into the power sharing process. The election of Mohammed Morsi is one more indication that traditional power centers in Egypt are shifting and not yet settled. The last state institution that is begrudgingly learning that lesson is the military, which refuses to hand over complete power to a civilian government.
Egypt has elected a conservative president who has said he wants to impose Islamic law. How he will change the country remains unclear. NBC's Richard Engel reports.
The question that should be asked is whether the Muslim Brotherhood can consolidate as much power as authoritarian regimes have without the use of force. It's unlikely it can in the short to medium term. Can it consolidate power through the ballot box and legislation? Yes, that is possible, and that is where Egyptians should be watching closely and with great skepticism. But that happens over time and with the complicity of society at large. It's also why it's more important that secular liberal forces get their act together and get in the political mix.
If the revolution has taught Egyptians one thing, it has shattered people's fear to take on those in power -- including would-be religious fanatics. If you want to measure the elections by the measuring stick of the revolution, it's safe to say that Egypt today is not what the revolutionaries envisioned. But then again it's naive to think removing Hosni Mubarak was going to remove the regime as well.
Today, the message to Egypt's military and others is simple: you can no longer maintain your exclusive monopoly on power. Morsi is not a product of Egypt's powerful security establishment. He is not a wealthy businessman. The fact that he can now preside over a country that had these two pillars as the cornerstone of the regime is a milestone. Is Morsi a revolutionary candidate? No. But Morsi, the candidate, was borne out of the the revolution and that is not lost on him or the Muslim Brotherhood, whose popularity has waned considerably and whose credibility has been challenged repeatedly by their miscalculations throughout the transitional period.
In the final analysis, the elections in Egypt should not be considered the end of a transitional process, but rather the beginning. In Egypt today, more power, no matter how regulated or muted, is being divided among more players and the result will be a more pluralistic political arena. Will the president challenge the military? Will he represent the people or his political affiliation? Will the military persistently defy the will of its people? Will liberal forces join Islamists against the military? Will the business elite actually start building a genuine economy and create a level playing field? I don't know the answers to any of these questions. But the fact that millions of Egyptians can ask them and begin to answer them for themselves is a good start. These elections were critical and a milestone for Egypt but they will not be as important as the next elections.
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Egypt has decided to follow the Iranian model. Mubarek is no different than the Shah. Egypt's relationship with Non-Islamic entities was no different under Mubarek than Iran under the Shah. Egypt will soon be like the Iran of today. An Ultra-Conservative Islamic Government using eternal war with non-Islamic forces to keep their people down and to keep the region in a perpetual state of war. My predicition is they prove that the word of an Islamic state is worthless when they abrogate their peace treaty with Israel by the end of 2013.
"Now they (MB) will be tested and judged based on their performance, not their myth. Egyptians will and can hold their officials responsible -- that's a lesson learned from the Jan. 25, 2011 revolution. "
I suspect the military will keep a tight rein on the MB President, and after a few years when he hasn't produced a better life for most Egyptians, they will sour on the MB.
In the meantime, I suspect that their economy will continue to suffer from a lack of tourism, foreign investment and a lack of opportunities. Most Egyptians have a poor understanding of what makes a strong economy work.
I doubt that many foreign investors will find Egypt an attractive place to put their money with the prevailing uncertainty about what the future holds and the possibility that their investments might be seized if the Islamists take complete control.
Unfortunately, when the lives of the people fail to improve, those in power may create a conflict with Israel to divert attention from their own failures. The future is fraught with uncertainty, and that alone will prevent economic progress.
@Jeff,
There is NO similarity between the Egyptian "model" and the Iranian "model." Iran is a theocracy pure and simple. The theocracy in Iran is backed by a corrupt and ruthless military whose primary aim is self-enricment.
Americans seldom understand Arab institutions such as the Muslim Brotherhood (and Hamas and Hexbollah.) The problem is that these Arab instituitions are hugely multi-functional, not just a bunch of wild-eyed militants. They have important functions in education, charity work, banking, and politics in addition to their professed desire to spread their religion. The Muslim Brotherhood is kinda like if you combined the American Red Cross, the National Education Association, Head Start, the GOP, the Southern Baptist Church, your local bank and your local chapter of the NRA all in one. This is a traditional type of Arab organization that seems out of place to Americans. But it has been a long Arab tradition that such organizations are the people who deal with the poor and the sick and uneducated and the hungry. Yeah, it involves politicans and even has room for militants. But such organizations tend to be more inclusive than not and tend to smother much of the militancy.
Rather than ultra-conservative, these people are generally quite moderate and just like Christians, most "Muslims" and "Muslim Brotherhood" members are not really church-goers and just self-identify that way because it is a part of their culture.
The joker in the Egyptian deck is the military. The military is very secular and has a long, long history of being opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, even including its charitable work, insisting that these "welfare" functions rightly belong to the state. There is no love lost between the MB and Egypt's huge military. The military sees itself as a Attaturk-like guarantor of secularism and is very much aware of how much damage a religious government can do.
The key thing to watch is the 15% of Egyptians who are Coptic Christians. This is a very, very old denomination --- the oldest still in existence. Its members are somewhat more successful than their numbers would indicate, controlling around a quarter of the economy. If there are attacks on the Copts, then Islamic militants are getting the upper hand. If that happens, the military will step in and the repression of the MB will be similar to that after the assassination of Sadat.
It is never wise to compare the Arab world's largest country with wannabe Iran. Iran is Shiite --- the Arab world is Sunni. Iran is Persian and speaks Farsi --- the Arab world speaks Arabic. The Arab world never looks to Iran for leadership. Arabs look to Egypt (and to a lesser extent to Jordan and Morocco.)
RE "Egypt elections only the beginning of a transitional process". The title is right! The content is not. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) will take over in Syria eventually. In fact, with Obama's help th MB is now the strongest it has ever been it it's entire history. FYI - The MB has also increased it's influence in at least 5 other Musim countries in just the last year.
As for the Obama assisted (so-called) Arab Spring: Only 3 entities have clearly benefited from what is really a Arab-Obama Winter. They are:
The #1 winner is the Muslim Brotherhood. They have ben around for 50 or so years but have never been as big or had as much influence as they have now. The MB has grown in at least 7 countries since this "false freedom" movement started.
The #2 winner is Iran. Iran has re-established ties with Egypt. Become the dominate foreign political power in Iraq. Increased it's influence in Afghanistan. Now has a land route to deliver weapons to Hezbollah (through Iraq & Syria). And, is meddling in Yemen, Bahrain, Quatar, etc.
The #3 winner is Hamas. Egypt is now looking the other way mostly when "supplies" slip over the border into Gaza. Iran, via Egypt, is arming Hamas as well.
Interesting how a free and transparent election in the Middle East is always characterized as a "take over" by the American right wing, with dire threats of more "take overs" to come. The lament of the NeoCon: "When we tell you that democracy is the way forward, you're supposed to vote for the party of OUR choice, not yours!" Ignorant heathens...
Not to worry, though. The Army will stage a coup within a year at the latest, and Egypt will once again be ruled by the kind of despotic military dictatorship America and the Israelis have always found more accommodating.
@Time,
Your rant is full of mis-statements and inaccuracies.
1) It is unlikely that the MB will take over in Syria. This is because Turkey will most likely call the shots because of Iranian involvement. You do not seem to understand the difference between Sunni and Shiite and the complications that are involved. But Assad is a Shiite --- from the Alawites, a Shiite sect that observes Christmas and Easter among other abberations. That is why Iran is supporting Assad against the 90+% who are Sunni (as is Turkey.)
2) There is no land route between Iran and Syria that does not run through Sunni parts of Iraq. The Sunnis would simply stop and take any arms going that way. The Iranians have used a small number of ships (this has now stopped) and mostly commercial pasasenger aircraft to deliver military supplies to Assad.
3) The MB is indeed involved with the Syrian "rebels." They are the only organization of sufficient size to handle the refugee crisis and are the driving force behind the Green Crescent. The MB is like the Mormon Church --- it is everywhere.
4) The Obama administration, despite constant criticism to support them by McCain and Graham, did not directly support the Tunisians, the Libyans, or the Egyptioans. It was the GOP, not the Obama administration who were the ones demanding that we arm rebels in those countries. Sec Clinton very often pointed out that the "rebels" in Libya were the same people who were "foreign fighters" with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Your assertion that the Obama administration helped them would be violently opposed by the Republicans.
5) Iran has not "re-established" relations with Iran. It has always had relations with Iran. But, as just one example, US warships can transit the Suez Canal with 24-hour notice. The Iranians must give a weeks notice. But you are right that Iran "meddles" in the affairs of a lot of the Gulf States. This is because there are a huge number of "guest workers" from Iran in those countries and, because they are Shiites, they are seriously discriminated against, rightly or wrongly.
6) Iran will supply arms to anyone who will buy them for cash. This has more to do with their corrupt military than religion at this point. They have traded rocket technology for nuclear technology with North Korea which is about as far from Muslim as you can get. And while there has been some sporadic cross-border arms smuggling into Palestine, this has more to do with geography than politics. Most of the smuggling has been done via tunnels --- tunnels designed to evade the Egyptian border guards more than the Israelis. If Egypt was "looking the other way" the smugglers would just cross the border with truckloads of arms.
There really are no winners so far. The whole region is in "transition" as they seek to find ways that are not captive to corrupt military regimes (that we often set up or supported.) The "Arab Spring" started because Tunisians found out from Wikileaks cables from the US State Department that stated simply how corrupt their governments were. And it is like a dmonio effect --- Tunisia, then Libya, then Egypt, then Syria. Much less sinister than you portray.
Congrats Egypt!!!
And so the long night, for Egypt, begins.
The writer makes some good points. the MB will inevitably attempt to consolidate power and impose sharia law....their goal is probably an Iran style political system. Hopefully the constitution is strong enough to withstand the challenges that the MB will throw at it. And hopefully the secular political parties will unite and mobilize in the next round of elections. It was a fairly close vote with quite a few people refusing to participate for political purposes...i suspect most of those who refused were not MB supporters. I can certainlyl understand why modern, secular thinking people (and especially non-muslims and women) would want to leave Egypt now, but if they do, there will be fewer votes for forward thinking secular candidates. I would like to see the demographics of those who voted for the MB; Were there voters who couldn't quite decide, and will change their vote next time....or were they all polarized? Hopefully there were some who simply held their nose and voted for him because of their fear that Mubarek's regime would get back in power. The democratic process in Egypt makes US elections look benign!
They are all radical terrorist but I haven't heard much about big name religious leaders. Ayatolah/Mullah. Who are the big names among the Religious leaders?
@tom,
There currently is NO Egyptian constitution. It hasn't been written yet. It will be written by a panel chosen by the military. There currently is NO parliament as well. So, right now Egypt has a new President who has an entrenched bureaucracy and no government and all the shots are being called by the military.
I do agree with you that the secular groups will most likely unite. The MB vote was likely more a vote against the military than a vote of support for an Islamic government. As Sec Clinton pointed out, half the voters in Egypt are women.
The reason Egypt will not go the way of Iran is two-fold: a) Iran is a religious theocracy supported by a ruthless corrupt military. The Egyptian military sees itself in a more Attaturk-like mirror where they are the guarantors of secularism. b) Iran has tourism approaching zero. Egypt's economy is about 50% connected to tourism, either directly or indirectly. It is a $12b industry and impacts lower income people disproportionately (the very people who are the staunchest supporters of the MB.)
Ambrose Bierce defined "democracy" as "four wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." You are seeing lunch in Egypt.
A terrorist organization has just taken control of Egypt. 82,000,000 people. Other contries where that has happened. Libya, Somalia, Ivory Coast, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Northern Sudan an Iran. Maybe Iraq, not clear yet. Buckle up We are in for a bumpy ride.
You know in Egypt they still buy black African slaves. Captured by N. Sudan. Islam sucks the BIG ONE.
"Islam sucks the BIG ONE." Thoughtful and erudite...
It took years of intense research and a lifetime of studying to come to that profound conclusion.
To 'would-I-lie'
You said "You know in Egypt they still buy black African slaves."
Obviously, you have never been to Egypt, never knew anything about it, and probably knows very little in general and a very ignorant person.
Stop making lies and presenting them as facts. Shame on you.
Very nice article. It's a refreshingly balanced perspective on the Egyptian election, and a faithful diagnosis of the revolution without the constant fear of what may lie ahead.
Democracy does indeed bring the risk of failure and great mishap. But it's still a damn sight better than dictatorship.
If the military had tried to not announce the results or faslify them there would have been civil war. So while minorities must be worried about the Muslim Brotherhood taking power, the jury is out. The New President indicated (by implication) that he would maintain the peace with Israel and protect the rights of Christians.
Here is the BBC summary of the main points from his speech:
We came to the world with a message of peace. We will maintain international charters and conventions and the commitments and agreements Egypt has signed with the world."
"We will not allow ourselves to interfere in the internal affairs of any country in the same way that we will not allow any interference in our affairs."
The revolution
"I would not have talked to you today as the first president elected by the free will of Egyptians... but for God's help and these sacrifices, the precious blood of our honourable martyrs and our great injured men."
"Thanks and salute to the martyrs... to my people who have lost their dear ones and sacrificed them for the sake of Egypt."
"The revolution will continue until all its objectives are achieved. Together, we complete this march."
Armed forces and judiciary
"I love them [soldiers] and appreciate their role and show keenness to strengthen them."
"All judges in Egypt should be appreciated... My responsibility in the future is to make sure that judges truly and genuinely work separately from the executive and legislative powers."
National unity
"Egypt is for all Egyptians; all of us are equals in terms of rights. All of us also have duties towards this homeland. As for myself, I don't have rights. I only have duties."
"We Egyptians, Muslims and Christians, are advocates of civilisation and construction."
"I invite you, the great Egyptian people... to cement bonds amongst us, to strengthen our comprehensive national unity."
the evil muslim brother is using the biggest country for its own iterest as the bible said
1And there came one of the seven angels which had the seven vials, and talked with me, saying unto me, Come hither; I will shew unto thee the judgment of the great whore that sitteth upon many waters:
2With whom the kings of the earth have committed fornication, and the inhabitants of the earth have been made drunk with the wine of her fornication.
3So he carried me away in the spirit into the wilderness: and I saw a woman sit upon a scarlet coloured beast, full of names of blasphemy, having seven heads and ten horns.
4And the woman was arrayed in purple and scarlet colour, and decked with gold and precious stones and pearls, having a golden cup in her hand full of abominations and filthiness of her fornication:
5And upon her forehead was a name written, MYSTERY, BABYLON THE GREAT, THE MOTHER OF HARLOTS AND ABOMINATIONS OF THE EARTH.
6And I saw the woman drunken with the blood of the saints, and with the blood of the martyrs of Jesus: and when I saw her, I wondered with great admiration.
7And the angel said unto me, Wherefore didst thou marvel? I will tell thee the mystery of the woman, and of the beast that carrieth her, which hath the seven heads and ten horns.
8The beast that thou sawest was, and is not; and shall ascend out of the bottomless pit, and go into perdition: and they that dwell on the earth shall wonder, whose names were not written in the book of life from the foundation of the world, when they behold the beast that was, and is not, and yet is.
9And here is the mind which hath wisdom. The seven heads are seven mountains, on which the woman sitteth.
10And there are seven kings: five are fallen, and one is, and the other is not yet come; and when he cometh, he must continue a short space.
11And the beast that was, and is not, even he is the eighth, and is of the seven, and goeth into perdition.
12And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power as kings one hour with the beast.
13These have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto the beast.
14These shall make war with the Lamb, and the Lamb shall overcome them: for he is Lord of lords, and King of kings: and they that are with him are called, and chosen, and faithful.
15And he saith unto me, The waters which thou sawest, where the whore sitteth, are peoples, and multitudes, and nations, and tongues.
16And the ten horns which thou sawest upon the beast, these shall hate the whore, and shall make her desolate and naked, and shall eat her flesh, and burn her with fire.
17For God hath put in their hearts to fulfil his will, and to agree, and give their kingdom unto the beast, until the words of God shall be fulfilled.
18And the woman which thou sawest is that great city, which reigneth over the kings of the earth.
Nothing I enjoy more than fundamentalist political Christianity wringing its collective hands over the horror of fundamentalist political Islam. I assume that before he goes to sleep each night, every right-wing Christian in America kneels to his picture of blond-haired, blue-eyed Jesus and high fives his picture of Mullah Omar, the man who really put theocracy on the map.
wing what and right what go live in your own dreams and keep dreaming evil is waiting for u, good luck
And some will remember the time when Egypt slid into the abyss.
Now the clock starts ticking for the end of the peace between Egypt and Israel.
And a new Caliphate takes root in North Africa.
Education is the only way to defeat Islam. Enlightenment.
Yeah, but I don't think most of these anti-Muslim nut cases want to be educated - other than to learn by heart parts of Revelation (that actually originated with the images of Zarathustra of Persia - Iran, written down by Jews during the Babylonian captivity (Persia freed them) and later put into the Bible by the Roman Empire to justify war.
Extremist crazies among the Muslims, Christians and Jews have a lot in common - and they don't want to be educated except in their own bigotry and stupidity.
Why does EVERY paragraph in this msnbc article make me angry .... lol as ususal ... maybe because it is so deceptively biased and wrong on every level~ who comes up with this crap ... GOOD MORNING JOE~ Maybe you should send some more "American" female correspondents over there to check things out ... let's see how safe it is, and examine the muslim bh bs motives toward us and the world~ selah ... let alone bringing the same bull to the US with our very own "arab springs" ... I really should not step in the stuff with my pink toenails :) ... it just irriates me so~