Great day for women in Egypt... for those of you who do not recognize sarcasm...

The military will be calling the shots, as usual.

Roadkill....even the military is better than the muslims...

Most of you are not capable of living with democracy when elections don't go your way. You want your way or the highway.

Mikem, spoken like someone who doesn't understand democracy. True democracy is for all the people and cannot be legislated or voted away.

Rachel, true Democracy requires that the person with the greatest number of votes wins. In this case, it is a candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Gonna be kind of difficult for Immams to take over in Egypt considering its a Sunni country and Sunni's don't have Immams in any real sense of the word. They sometimes have spiritual leaders that share some of the same roles that Immams have in the Shiite world, but they most certainly do not have actual Immams.

But I'm sure a tempered, educated, and astute observer of foreign politics such as yourself already knew that.

Morsi is taking over in a country:

That has no Parliament (disolved by the military)

That has no Constitution (repealed by the military)

With an entrenched secular bureaucracy

With an entrenched and powerful secular military

Where the major source of foreign capital is tourism

Where any attempt at Sharia Law will drive all banking further into the hands of Coptic Christians

This is not going to be pretty, folks. Morsi was elected, not because the majority of people wanted an Islamic state or Sharia Law, but because they have been jerked around by a repressive and controlling military since Farouk was deposed. Morsi's opponent was a Mubarrak insider and ran on a platform of secularism and guaranteed return to military control.

The election was, by all accounts, free and fair. But the Egyptian people do not want a Muslim Brotherhood dictatorship to replace a military dictatorship, despite the fact that that was the only choice offered them.

It is highly unlikely that the Muslin Brotherhood can deliver. It will all revolve around the issue that had held Muslim countries for centuries --- banking. The charging and paying of interest is strictly forbidden by Sharia and secular Muslim law. This is a huge handicap in attracting even domestic investment. Malaysia and Indonesia (both Muslim countries) have struggled with this. Their solution has always been to let expatriate Chinese and Indians handle the financial end of the country much as Europeans, when Christianity forbade interest, used Jews as their banks. But the very concept of interest and its inherent (according to Islam and Christianity) wrongness have been sore points that relegated Chinese and Indians and Jews to a second-class citizenship.

In Egypt the minority that would step in if Sharia Law were imposed is the Coptic Christians (who have been in Egypt since 50 or so years Anno Domini. The Copts are about 15% of Egypts population, but control around 25% of the economy, especially in the tourism sector. It is faintly possible that much of the banking mioght move into Copt hands or into the hands of Copts as fronts for secular Muslims. But either way it is a powder keg. The Copts have been increasingly marginalized and excluded from government since Nasser. There have been several horriffic pograms since. It is difficult to see how Morsi would be able to use the Copts as the Malaysians and Indonedians have used the Chinese and Indians to float the financial sector with so much bad blood. Without banking, the Egyptian economy will collapse.

My guess is that the bottom line is that the military will appoint a secular Constitutional committee to write a new constitution that will severely limit the power of the Muslim Brotherhood and the influence of religion in government. They would then stack the new parliament with secularists and allow only a handful of Salafists to have seats. To curry favor, the military would likely place parliamentary quotas to seat more women. I would expect the new constitution to define the military of guarantors of secularism, women's rights, and perhaps even the rights (at least on paper) of Copts along the lines of the Attaturk model. If the military fails, then thge economy of the country will fail.

And the major carrot and stick for the Egyptian military are US military aid and war with Israel. The Camp David accords require the US to give military aid "on parity" between Israel and Egypt. If we cut military aid to Egyupt we are required to cut it to Israel as well. Much of the Egyptian military aid, and a substantial amount of other aid that is in cash goes directly into the pockets of a corrupt military leadership. Mostly the US tried to give Egypt hardware instead of cash --- Abrams tanks, F-16's, etc.

But the Egyptian military greatly fears war with Israel. This is not because they think that the IDF would win, because they do not thin so. It is because the last war with Israel showed the Egyptian military that the IDF han be rather handily defeated if the Egyptian military is willing to make it a war of attrition. Egypt has learned how to "soak off" troops and equipment to the point that the IDF, backed by a much smaller country and economy, cannot win. But a war of attrition is an extremely painful process that always produces huge amounts of casualties on both sides.

And the IDF has the weapons of losers --- about 200+ nuclear weapons of US-design and mostly US-manufacture (the plans and key components were procured from the US by the Mossad.) The last act of an Israel that was losing a war of attrition would be to devastate its Arab neighbors and Iran. Much in the way that the Coalition pulled up short in the First Gulf War to avoid creating a destructive power vacuum, any Egyptian war of attrition would have to end before Israel's pre-1967 boundaries with some sort of face-saving device in order for the entire Middle East not to blow up.

These are very complex situations and all we can basically do is to watch as it unfolds. The US always heralds that it wants to see pure democracies in the Middle East, but fail to remember that the Founding Fathers believed that democracy was not viable along with religion in government. But it is a case of "be careful what you wish for."

@Rachael,

It appears that it is YOU who do not understand democracy. Ambrose Bierce defined "democracy" as "four wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch" and the Founding Fathers would heartily agree.

The Founding Fathers feared democracy. That is why they made every governmental office --- President, Vice-President, Cabinet, Senate, Supreme Court, and ever high governmental office appointed and not directly elected. They made only the House of Representatives directly elected and gave them the shortest possible term of office. They made the House directly elected, not to further democracy, but to give states with larger numbers of slaves disproportionately more influence in Congress than states with few slaves. So, what appeared the only shred of direct election of officials was actually done, not for democracy, but to perpetuate slavery indefinitely.

Chris-

One of the most insightful and accurate posts I've read on the subject. I particularly liked the rapid fire one-sentence breakdown of the fundamentals over there at the top of your post that help cut right to the chase.

There are huge problems largely overlooked with the entire voting process. Not talking about the more evident distasteful elements of politics-as-usual. For one too few, or what amounts to a handful of special interest groups too easily can manipulate the entire process to satisfy strictly their own ends. So in terms of percentage of the eligible voters Abrose Bierce's definition would be more like, 'four lambs and a wolf voting on what to have for lunch.' That way there's the added smoke screen appearance the lambs have the advantage of numbers on their side. I'm only scratching the surface on this, and it's no wonder why we're have big problems with our system as a whole.

faked election in all measurement, Muslim brotherhood hood evil in power, and it will be a big war in the middle east very soon, these are islamisitis in power hate USA , Israel, Christians and any one else not muslim.

Obtained from «elwatan egyptian news paper» on the details of the secret contacts that took place in the last hours, between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military council, under the auspices of the United States, and the mediation of Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, before the announcement of winning the presidency, Dr. Mohamed Morsy, compared to the group assignment for the key ministries of the Council.Said Sarwat Kherpauy, the leading Muslim Brotherhood before, the hours that preceded the announcement of the result of elections, seen understandings between the group and «military» on the one hand, and between the Brotherhood and the American administration on the other hand, confirmed that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led the understandings, which included some of the promises of the forces A victory by armed marina, Oaida if not won, he said.He continued saying that Clinton had contacts with officials in the Council, in the last few days, to declare the result in favor of «anchorage», and got the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, already the most votes, but the Supreme Committee for the presidential elections, which he described as «a» of the military, as it was can accept some of the challenges his rival Ahmed Shafik, solved the result.The engineer Shater, first deputy Brotherhood leader, admitted to holding a meeting with the military council, to discuss the dissolution of parliament, sources said that he agreed with him on the success of the Marina, leave the selection for the key ministries of the military.Has seen the past 48 hours, the movements of Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, in the form of intensive contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood, also met, in a hurry and at his request, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, and the leaders of the Council, on Saturday evening, hours before the announcement the final result.This is consistent with what the site «Globus» Israel, yesterday, that the administration of Barack Obama pushed the military to respect the results of the presidential elections, and to enable anchorage of the receipt of power as the first civilian president elected, said newspaper «Guardian» British that the election outcome was known since last Tuesday, The Brotherhood met with leaders of «military», and demanded the return of Parliament, and the abolition of judicial officers, and the formation of the Committee on Constituent new constitution, but the response is rejected, sought refuge for the field, and heard all of the Marshal and the team Sami Annan's chief of staff, the point of view of ElBaradei, to the effect that the abolition of the Declaration to Supplement the need out of the current impasse, as a constitutional coup, reinforcing the powers of the military council, and reduce the powers of the president, and his proposal to re-election to a third individual in the parliament, but the Marshal, he replied: Egypt is a state law must be respected court rulings.For his part, stressed the official campaign Shafiq, the team received a call from the «senior official of the State», congratulate him on winning, start at the 8 the previous evening the result was announced, and told him to send a force of the Republican Guard to his home, but that power is turned back again in sudden. the elwatan newspaper

dman, chris, so if you have a democracy and a Muslim brotherhood member is elected and declares an Islamic state with himself as Caliph, is it still a democracy?

Think not.

dman, chris, so if you have a democracy and a Muslim brotherhood member is elected and declares an Islamic state with himself as Caliph, is it still a democracy?

Think not.

.....hmmmm, "Think not". Was that an instruction to others, Rachel, or are you bragging of your ability to conserve mental energy by not using your head?

Has Morsi declared an Islamic state, with himself as Caliph yet? I think not.

With a secular military still holding much political power, is it likely to happen? I think not.

Are you obsessing about an unlikely fear due to anti-Islamic paranoia? Bingo!

Nobody knows how the post-Mubarak Egypt will unfold. Much of what has happened there this past year had to do with Mubarak's age, the declining Egyptian economy and the rising price of basic commodities, such as bread. But to hold general elections is a step in the right direction for the Egyptian people, who are not all radical, Islamic fanatics.

I think I'll wait to see what happens in Egypt, as opposed to making shrill, irrational predictions.

Chris, Thanks for the informative posts on Egypt. I particularly like the references to King Farouk and Attaturk.

I do not agree with everything you say, but yours are at least rational observances based upon current circumstances and past events in the region.

Oh, and I especially enjoyed your reference to Ambrose Bierce and his definition of Democracy. I'd never heard that before.

Irrational? Wanna bet? $50 on an Islamic state and more murders of Copts.

Irrational? Wanna bet? $50 on an Islamic state and more murders of Copts.

You were predicting both the establishment of an Islamic state and Morsi declaring himself as Caliph. Now you are making bets on the establishment of an Islamic state and more murders of Coptic Christians.

Which is it, or does do your predictions, like Romney's political positions shift like the beeds in a kalidescope?

Anyway, the murder of more Coptic Christians is a pretty safe bet, as this type of religion-inspired violence was occurring under Mubarak too. Regarding the declaration of an Islamic state, you've yet to cite one reason to believe such an event in immanent. As to the self-appointment of Morsi as "Caliph", a religious and political office which has been unknown for hundreds of years, not a chance in hell of this happening.

rrobeson; Oh Yeh? tell the to Castro, or better yet Hitler.

Democracy is for the people not the person. United we stand divided we fall, Get it?

Oh yes, unity of the masses, majority rules, and shared catastrophe...my what an incredibly free and liberating experience democracy is!!!

The deception is democracy sounds good on paper and on the surface the idea fits the way things ought be. But in practice unfortunately it becomes something else that is in some ways worse because the populace can more easily be snookered that those in charge really are doing all they can and things will get better... soon... maybe... tomorrow... ...

Yeah, I was wondering who thought up that term. Egypt has a long history and once upon a time they were leaders and innovators but "Mother of the World"? Never. Not then and especially not now

Actually it refers to it's ancient Dynasty roots, their unsearchable Pyramids and knowledge, in having given birth to all advanced civilization on earth, as it were.

Walk Like An Egyptian

The Bangles

You do realize that right here on US soil the early and more influential Christian groups sought on several occasions to take over our government and essentially put an end to what we know as democracy today, don't you?

It is your culture that has failed the planet like a disease. In your ignorance, you are not even aware.

@Jack,

You are substantially wrong. The Byzantine (Eastern) Roman Empire did not fall until the 1400's when it was defeated by the Ottomans. That's less that 600 years ago. 1300 years ago, Egypt was long past its prime, was ruled by Greek (Ptolemaic) rulers and spoke Latin and a pigeon Latin-Egyptian. It was actually the Romans who were the innovators and commercial leaders of Egypt were their Roman conquerers.

Americans have such a narrow view of the world that they cannot come to grips with the simple fact that Arabic (and Persian) countries suffered greatly from explotive Roman and later, British, rule. The Muslim culture is very little different than traditional Middle Eastern Jewish culture. Hebrew and Arabic are very similar languages. There is little difference between Talmudic Law (such as in Israel) and Sharia Law.

Americans love to hate. So they always portray other cultures as "backward, cruel and corrupt." Even when it not the case. The Arab countries have not "degraded" into anything. They were under the thumb of the Roman Empire until the 1400's, then the Ottomans, and from WWI until around the mid-1950's, it was the British. And then when indepencence came to Arab countries after WWII, the British did everything in their power to create "new" Arab countries that were so carefully divided to foster massive internal conflicts as punishment for kicking out the "enlightened" British.

If you want to blame someone for the way Arab (and Persian) countries are today, you have to look no further than the British. They carved up Palestine in such a way that neighbors would always be fighting. They did exactly the same in India, Iraq, Africa, and China. They would carefully draw borders so that there would always be large oppressed minorities to stir up trouble. It is the British who are responsible for a great deal of the problems of the modern Middle East where they took "divide and conquer" to a new paradigm of divide and repress.

Hate is just hate and nothing more. False nationalism is still false, even when it is American. Dumb is still dumb even when it is an American speaking. And hatred of other cultures is nothing more than a way of showing how little you know and how insecure you are in your own culture. Loud does not equal right.

Jack-

Your confusing time frames. The early Muslim empire was among the most successfull, advanced and prosperous of the day. Since the 1800's Islam has suffered internal deterioration and is frustrated in a feverish attempt to return to it's roots. Ironically Islam today is scarcely what Muhammad himself would approve of by any stretch of the imagination. Modern times no longer fit what was needed long ago. So many draw conclusions by not recognizing the bigger picture over an extended period of time.

An excellent, extensive and very accurate picture of the immediate pre and post Islamic period can be found in Muhammad, A Biography of The Prophet by Karen Armstrong, a former Catholic nun. Harper Collins/Harper San Francisco

Have to help reveal here that embarassingly parts of history have been doctored or ommited by the sophisticated American proaganda machine since earliest times. Hence the general public is quite unaware of some aspects of world history.

Chris

Where to start with those observations. Universal world Calipaheunder Sharia equivalent to Halakah? Not close. Not on the same page except for abstaining from pork...

Mohammad under the thumb of the Roman empire? You made that up. The conquest of Jerusalem and Byzantium a Holy Roman Mossad plot. Yah, sure. You betcha. The Brits and French gave 98% of the Ottoman Empire to the Muslims... Gave the Jews 2%- Judea and environs. The Brits then carved it to 1% when the arabs whined. Now its down to less than 2/10's with a fine chunk of land for peace (Gaza)and they are still whining and firing rockets.

India, not Britain carved out Pakistan(s) when the Muslims as a 30% minority whined and threatened war. Read up on the Partition. Start with the Islamic conquest of the Indian Peninsula and the destruction and pillage of ancient temples, Libraries and Universities.

You mean well but yah gotta get the history down right.

A fair chance to kill a few people and oppress a few women?

If he only kills a few, he will be better than Hosni.

There wasn't wholesale murder of Copts under Hosni. Difficult as I'm sure it was, he kept the ravening hordes from mass killings. Let's wait and see here, wait and see.

There is not "clergy" in Sunni Islam. God, if Egypt is as illiterate and as backward as these boards then they're in for some trouble.

Please, people, go and do some research. Imams are only in Shiite countries. There is only one predoinantly Shiite country (Iran) and it isn't even Arab. There is one majority Shiite country (Iraq) and one Shiite-controlled country (Syria.)

In the Arab world, an "imam" is exactly how it translates: leader. There is little religious context except in Iran and increasingly in Iraq. There is a pretty good article on Wikipedia on the subject:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_religious_leaders

And for all the hate-filled Christians, I wonder why you are on NewsVine and not out stoning unbelievers to death as required in the Bible. Or standing outside Red Lobster to kill diners. Or taking multiple wives. etc. There is no fundamental difference between Sharia and Talmud. But since Christ was both a Semite (which included both Arabs and Hebrews) and a follower of the precursor of Talmudic Law, I guess the Christian right would consider Christ as a terrorist who never held an honest job in His life.

Admit this is one of the problems with this outcome. Traditionally in Islam leadership is heavily influenced by one spiritual leader, often not the dictator or king. In the case of Shi'a Islam a well established Imam can sway the country more than any other single influence. Scarcely any semblance of a democracy, or at least the result of what a democracy is supposed to achieve.

It is not a democracy and never will be with an Islamic leader.

@bevvar,

Instead of making stupid and ill-informed remarks, here is a simply rhetorical test to apply:

Whenever you say "Muslim" first try the phrase with the word "Christian" to see if it possibly still makes sense. If it doesn't, then you need to STFU.

Posts like a stampede of runaway elephants.....dude, you better check it again..

Your president is not only sending money to Egypt but special millions to refurbish a Mosque.

@bevvar,

Another Fox lie! Here's the www.factcheck./org dubunking of yet another hate-filled racist lie:

http://www.factcheck.org/2011/03/funding-mosques-overseas/

Do you have some sort of racist hate speech generator? No body is they stupid unassisted by technology. LOL

What you are referring to is a Republican program started by Congress under Clinton with no significant funding until W. Obama has nothing to do with --- it is strictly a GOP initiative.

Millions for a mosque is pocket change compared to this nonsense:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2S1mJAxMzA

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/03/21/obama-bypasses-congress-gives-1-5-billion-to-muslim-brotherhood/

No they were'nt but they will be allowed to disintegrate as will the Sphinx, the valley of the kings, the great statues and monuments, built for ancient(before Islam) dynasties and Pharoahs. If you think that anything else that is not of the Islamic Religion and Faith will be allowed to survive then you really need to look up and follow what Islamic Fundamentalists are doing to other country's in that region. Take a good hard look at the items of historical significance that have been destroyed by these people, look at those they have attacked and murdered and the methods used; simply because they are of a differnt faith or they question Islam. I have zero tolerance for them and their beliefs. If they cannot grow beyond such barbarism than they have no place in any moral or upright society anywhere in the world.

Pretending to want to just practice faith in freedom doesn't mean that you can nor should be allowed to try to overthrow a country or destroy one because they believe differently.

Mother of the World???? Far from it, you cannot claim what simply is not true especially for a country like Egypt. Nor can we in the US. Unfortunately our politicians are fools and idiots and only care about power but luckily we still have a seperation of powers available but with the President we have he will seek to overthrow this if he gets in for another term. He already is in violation of his oath of office, and is far from upholding the law of the land, our Constitution. Again unfortunately we cannot legally remove him from office we have to wait for our election this November.

Do we think that the now all-powerful MB can somehow stop another Tahrir Square-type uprising? The Egypian military, who's in our (USA) pocket as well, scarcely could be construed as likely backing the MB. Where's the MB gonna' come up with all this big and badass, "Do it our way Egyptian, or else!"??? It's hilarious how many seek anyway to generate fear or paranoia when no such thing is possible in practice. See? The terrorists were already successful on yo' ass without having to lay a finger on ya'.

Spelling and punctuation not your forte eh ? Painful to read. Aie aie aie...

Briefly skimming your mostly illegible post, I found one blatant error right off and read no further. Jesus was indeed found and affirmed in the Roman census by individuals who have no bias in the story. We're talking atheists who would rather not find him there as much as anything.

Coyote Canada

I hear yah coyote. One can only hope and pray, resist the Great White Bear, pray for those that walk into its leg-trap & and stay off drinking his "medicine"....& try lead a righteous life best we can.

The idea is Egypt was first, and gave birth to all advanced civilizations of the earth. Sure, a little over-assuming arrogance on their part, but, what the heck. It's only words.

Yo Time, your tin foil hat is on way too tight. You're typing utter nonsense.

Yep, Obama is their secret Messiah. So quit blowing his cover, will ya'? Cheez...

:)

I guess you 2 weren't around to hear him sing cum bah yah in Cairo or bow to the Saudis.

Salut!

But just as soon as any Muslim organization attempts to take any sovereign even remotely back to the dark ages or 7th century, that will spell the end for them. Such may have been at least partially possible up till 20 or 30 years ago, but not anymore.

@Larry,

I looked at over a hundred pictures from Gopogle Images. It appears to be about the same proportion of men to women as at both W's and Obama's inaugurations. And vastly more women in Morsi's inauguration crowds (he did it twice) than in the US Senate, House of Representatives, governors, mayors, etc.

Considering that the country has no parliament, no constitution and still has the same secular laws that it had yesterday, you are seriously jumping the gun.

Tourism is about 12% of Egypt's economy (in 2009) but has fallen to somewhere less than 4% today (prior to the election.) Not hardly "virtually their entire economy" by any measure.

Interesting, from the gist of what I'd heard before I would have thought tourism represented a considerably higher percentage of their economy.

@Steve,

If you look at other countries such as Spain, and Portugal, and Greece it is about the same. Most of the collapse in tourism has not come because of trouble in the country, but from large tour companies such as Cook cancelling organized tours until they can figure out what is going on and what their own risk might be. The major reason that tourism is not a larger employer (and would therefore be a larger segment of the economy) is that it is substantially in the Cairo area and then in small isolated and relatively sparsely spots along the Nile. Basically Egypt is a "service" economy (about 53%) backed up by subsistence agriculture and fishing. They have a small oil resource and very little industry.

Obama was a high honors law school graduate and a Constitutional law instructor for twelve years. He was elected to several political offices including the Illinois legislature and the US Senate. He also did considerable pro bono legal work on issues of corporate constitutional law and worked in community employment programs.

Morsi is an engineer --- with a PhD from USC (not exactly a Mislim stronghold.) He was a professor at CSU Northridge and returned to Egypt as a university professor in engineerins. He was elected to the Egyptian Parliament.

The bottom line is both are well-qualified to be President of their respective countries. Calling some a terrorist of a Muslim sympathizer is nothing more than showing your ignorance. Doing it loudly just shows how much out-of-step you are.

The current odds of Obama winning on Nov 6th are: 67.8% and 32.2% for the Mittster. However these numbers are misleading in that they do not take into consideration the extremely bad last week for the GOP. The numbers will change even more in favor of Obama as time goes on.

The truth is most prominent GOP heads we're not happy when it started looking like Romney was going to be their guy. That has not changed whatsoever. I'd heard many of them who have an inate sense for how things will turn out already had thrown in the towel long ago, looking on to 2016. The margins won't be like 2008, but barring a divine miracle for the GOP, the result will be the same.

@Steve,

I agree. I am a southerner and I think many Republicans are missing how much warning is being preached fropm southern pulpits about Romney being a non-Christian. That one is a bit too sensitive for pollsters to ask about, so it is being ignored. And boy, did the GOP have a rough week last week.

Someone did a video of all the Ropmney endorsement announcements. You have never seen such a lackaluster bunch of people who were just saying what they had to. Their heart definitely wasn't in it. It is probably on youtube.