Japan to go broke by October? Standoff threatens to 'collapse' budget

TOKYO - Japan's government could run out of money by the end of October, halting all state spending including salaries, pensions and unemployment benefits, because of a standoff in parliament that has blocked a bill to finance the deficit.

The deficit financing bill, which would allow the government to sell bonds needed to fund almost half of the budget, has languished in parliament as the ruling Democratic Party tussles with opposition parties that can use their control of the upper house to reject legislation.


"Without this bill, the budget will collapse," Finance Minister Jun Azumi said on Friday, pleading for cooperation from the two largest opposition parties.

"It doesn't matter which party is in power. I really hope that we can get a multi-partisan agreement on the deficit bill."

If the bill is not passed, government spending would grind to a halt, the world's third-largest economy would be put in jeopardy and its standing among credit ratings agencies could suffer.

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Japan is not the only developed nation that is staring at an imminent fiscal crisis. Greece's debt-strapped government could run out of money within weeks unless it secures a 31.8 billion euro ($39.42 billion) tranche of bailout funds from the European Union.

The U.S. economy is facing $4 trillion worth of expiring tax cuts and automatic government spending reductions at the end of the year, and a standoff in Congress makes the chance of a compromise over the so-called "fiscal cliff" look dim.

AP

View side-by-side the progress that Japan has made since the tsunami and earthquake in March 2011.

The impasse in Japan however comes just after Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda won over the opposition to pass an increase in sales tax in the lower house of parliament. However, a section of his party quit over the vote, and is poised to form a new party.

Noda's Democrats still control a majority in the lower house of parliament, but are outnumbered by the opposition in the upper house. Many analysts say mid-term elections could be called.

"There's so much uncertainty over the political outlook that it's hard to say how big the risk is of the government running out of cash," said Naoki Iizuka, senior economist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"The key would be the timing of any snap election and who would be leading the Democratic Party at the time."

Opposition parties have threatened to delay Japan's deficit financing bill in the past but have eventually yielded and voted in favor. This time, however, the opposition may be more emboldened because of the row over the sales tax hike.

World's largest debt burden
Japan's budget for the current fiscal year that started in April totals 90.3 trillion yen ($1.13 trillion).

The deficit financing bill allows Japan to sell 38.3 trillion yen in government bonds to fund the budget. The remainder is funded by tax revenue, non-tax revenue and income from bonds earmarked for public works projects.

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Government expenditure is forecast to reach 43.9 trillion yen by the end of September, Azumi said.

Assuming that the deficit financing bill does not pass, the government would have only 46.1 trillion yen on hand, Azumi said. This means the government is sure to run out of money by the end of October, he said.

The first in line to take a hit if Japan starts running out of money would be regional governments, which rely on tax grants from the national government for much of their spending.

The Finance Ministry could start cutting tax grants to local governments in September if there is no sign that the deficit financing bill will pass, Azumi said.

The government would try to prioritize pension and unemployment payments, but once the money runs out, there is not much the government can do, finance ministry bureaucrats have said.

Prime Minister Noda could reach an agreement with opposition parties to provide some temporary funding. However, Noda does not have the right to override parliament on the voting of the deficit funding bill.

Japan already has the world's largest debt burden at nearly twice the size of its $5 trillion economy, and a breakdown in fiscal spending could increase skepticism that politicians are losing their grip on public finances.

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Who knew Japan had a tea party?

  • 1 vote
Reply#78 - Fri Jul 6, 2012 3:14 PM EDT

Send Obama over, he can fix anything.

  • 1 vote
Reply#79 - Fri Jul 6, 2012 3:17 PM EDT

Is everybody emulating our retarded congress?

  • 2 votes
Reply#80 - Fri Jul 6, 2012 4:10 PM EDT

Does anyone really give a @!$%# ?

    Reply#81 - Fri Jul 6, 2012 4:32 PM EDT

    I am a Canadian and have been living in Japan for the past 18 years and love this country deeply. Yes, there is a recession on here but there has been one for the past 18 years but things were starting to turn around prior to the big earthquake hitting here last year.

    The Japanese have cut their spending however not so much where you do not see them in the shops and restaurants buying their cup of mocha.

    What is hurting this country is the VERY CORRUPT POLITICIANS. There are corrupt politicians everywhere but what is different here is the people do nothing and or say very little about the corruption that goes on over here.

    Before the government raises the sales tax they need to downsize their own staff and retire all the old people that sit in the diet and who just sleep on the job they do show this on the tv. They have 20 security following one politician around giving him better safety than even the Queen of England really over the top.

    Until the Japanese Government really looks in their back yard and does some fiscal cleaning they should not be looking at the public.

      Reply#82 - Fri Jul 6, 2012 4:42 PM EDT

      Looks like Japan has their own "Tea Party" -like situations to deal with. I never though America would spread the disease to the rest of the world. This is bad.

      • 1 vote
      Reply#83 - Fri Jul 6, 2012 4:58 PM EDT

      More like the libs: spend, spend, spend... gimme, gimme, gimme!

      • 1 vote
      #83.1 - Fri Jul 6, 2012 7:11 PM EDT
      Reply

      2008, fix the problem

        Reply#84 - Fri Jul 6, 2012 11:33 PM EDT

        The real iimport of this story is the impact it has on Japan's oil imports which could dry up over night further hobbling the economy which has suffered since FFukushima disaster closed the bulk of the nuclear power plats- so me of which have just restarted..

        Japan could cause further oil price declines in a uncertan market.

          Reply#85 - Fri Jul 6, 2012 11:48 PM EDT

          I propose we introduce legislation that raises the taxes of the filthy rich people in the USA to EIGHTY PERCENT TAX RATE. For example MITT ROMNEY made 25 million his taxes should be 20 million. That leaves him with 5 million to go boating on the lake. We should also tax corporations the same way. The filthy rich will never starve.They really don't need private jets or 10 homes.TAX the bastards that profited the most while our kids died to fight for our so called freedom. 80% tax rate on anything over 1 million will balance the budget in ten years.Replace foreign aid with foreign loans with interest.

            Reply#86 - Sun Jul 8, 2012 10:57 AM EDT
            Comment author avatarDario Impinivia Facebook

            Doesnt Japan print its own money like the US Treasury? If so, how can they physically "run out of money"? Its like our false recurring crisis of raising the debt limit. We can print as much money as we like. It wouldnt necessarily be a good idea but we do it anyway.

              Reply#87 - Sun Jul 8, 2012 11:37 AM EDT

              Borrow from China and problem solved.

                Reply#88 - Mon Jul 9, 2012 2:53 AM EDT

                I had a chance to read some of the comments on this article. I can truly say that some of you need to live here in Japan to truly see the truth. Let me put it to you this way remember the movie called "The Island"? Well your seeing the same illusion the clones were seeing. Since many of you are on the outside looking in there are many things that you can't see or go unnoticed. Not to slam on the comment that WallSTFatCat made but Japanese do not save every yen. The interest rates for Japanese banks are.....how shall I put it. "Why put it in the bank when it will not earn any interest anyway......so better if we just spend it" To be put straight forward you never see any shows or commercials encouraging one to save. Where the USA has gone wrong is we have seen the signs or the mistakes made by Japan but we have become so arrogante in thinking we would not have such problems. Guess what we are in the boat Japan is in. But instead of us being humble and quiet we are willing to b**** about it and many times we raise hell.

                  Reply#89 - Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:25 AM EDT

                  The Japanese are not in denial unlike the U.S.

                    Reply#90 - Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:02 PM EDT
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