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KCNA-KNS via AFP - Getty Images
This undated photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on July 27, 2012 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un and his wife Ri Sol-Ju reacting after watching a performance by members of the Korean People's Internal Security Forces (KPISF) at Ponghwa Art Theatre in Pyongyang.
BEIJING -- Change in North Korea, and its potential impact on American interests in the Asia-Pacific, is likely to be on the agenda when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton meets Chinese leaders next month on her region-wide tour.
Is the hermit kingdom, with its nuclear weapons program and a “military-first policy” that prioritizes its 1.2 million-strong army, capable of social reform?
Or is the latest staged-managed imagery from Pyongyang—of a Swiss-educated young leader displaying a stylish wife, giving thumbs up to pop music and promising that the belt-tightening days are over—a sign of a new beginning for the impoverished and isolated nation?
The buzz about North Korea’s tantalizing hints of change has gained currency with the recent visit to China of Jang Song Thaek, the powerful uncle of the new North Korean leader Kim Jung Un, followed by reports that Kim himself is seeking to visit China next month.
China vowed greater support and investment in North Korea’s languishing China-style special economic zones, and urged Pyongyang to let “market” principles guide its moribund economy.
But while signs are pointing to change in Pyongyang, North Korean propaganda was denouncing as “hallucination” any talk of reform, denying that the new leadership is breaking with the past.
Ezra Klein describes the mystery surrounding a woman seen accompanying North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and new reports that she is his wife, meaning the dictator is no longer on the singles market.
Authoritarian dictatorship
As a neighbor and ally, China is sensitive to any shift in Pyongyang’s policy directions that could impact China’s interests. While Beijing provides Pyongyang with massive aid to prevent regime collapse that could cause regional instability, China is opposed to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
“I think it’s not possible for Pyongyang to sacrifice its military-first and nuclear arms policies, and that in turn will limit all possibilities for reform,” observed Zhang Liangui, China’s top scholar on North Korea who graduated from Kim Il Sung University in Pyongyang.
“I am not optimistic about reform because Kim Jun Un alone cannot decide, it will be decided by North Korea’s political system which prioritizes the army,” said Zhang, a professor of international strategic research at China’s central school for training communist party officials.
“There is low probability of significant change,” said Daniel Pinkston, Seoul-based senior analyst of the International Crisis Group.
KCNA via AFP - Getty Images
A file picture released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on December 28, 2011 shows Kim Jong-Un and his powerful uncle, Jang Song-Thaek, at the funeral of late leader Kim Jong-Il.
North Korea’s system is “structurally set up as an authoritarian dictatorship…as long as the Kim family is in power it will be extraordinarily difficult to renounce the legacy of his father and grandfather,” Pinkston told NBC News, explaining his group’s latest report analyzing the barriers to reform in North Korea’s militarized society.
Ezra Klein describes the mystery surrounding a woman seen accompanying North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and new reports that she is his wife, meaning the dictator is no longer on the singles market.
Preventing a Gadhafi-like fate
“As long as the Kim family regime is in power, they will not surrender nuclear weapons. But I do not see why this is an obstacle for reforms,” argued Andrei Lankov, a Seoul-based Russian scholar on North Korea who also attended Kim Il Sung University.
“They will keep their nuclear devices, five or ten of them, for the deterrence purposes, just to make sure that they will not suffer the sorry state of Colonel [Moammar] Gadhaf i—while reforming the country if they consider that reform suit their interest,” he told NBC News.
Lankov noted, however, the “destabilizing” effects of reform. ”Sadly, the conservatives might be correct and I will not be surprised if the reforms will bring about a sudden collapse of the North Korean state,” he said, alluding to the examples of East Germany and Tunisia.
“It is still possible to take steps toward the market without giving up the nuclear program, though you would have to limit military spending,” according to Daniel Sneider, associate director for research at the Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University.
But for Sneider, one issue is the challenge posed to Pyongyang’s legitimacy by South Korea. North Korea used to be more prosperous than the South due to pampering by China and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. But now, the North’s economy is barely three percent of the South’s, with half the population. The majority of North Koreans suffer from food shortages, according to UN reports.
“In the South, there is a wonderful example of a highly successful Korean market economy—the North claims to be morally superior and a purer Korean state, unpolluted by Western capitalism. If they go down the road of market reform, that undermines a central plank of North Korean ideology,” Sneider said.
“The path of reform will be chosen by North Korea but China will certainly provide help,” said Lu Chao, director of North Korea Studies at the Academy of Social Sciences in Liaoning province, which shares a long border with North Korea.
Limited risk
Lu, who frequently meets with North Korean officials and businessmen from across the border, detects Pyongyang’s new focus on the economy.
“Kim Jung Un is focused on improving the quality of life, this can be seen in his visits to parks and artistic performances, in contrast with his father who prioritized the military,” Lu told NBC News.
At least 169 deaths have been reported in North Korea during the past two months as flooding continues to cover thousands of acres of farmland. NBCNews.com's Dara Brown reports.
“Some reforms are going on in the country, especially in agriculture,” he added, noting that farming reforms will pose “limited risks” to the regime.
For the International Crisis Group’s Pinkston, US policy should remain “deterrence and containment while being observant”.
“The US should monitor, bilaterally and multilaterally, the situation in North Korea, maintain a strong deterrence and containment posture, but be willing, when the opportunity presents itself, to engage North Korea if it changes its policy directions,” Pinkston said.
Clinton is scheduled to visit China Sept 4-5, before becoming the highest-ranking US official to visit East Timor, which gained independence from Indonesia in 2002.
She will later visit the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Vladivostok, eastern Russia.
NBC researchers Tianzhou Ye and Lorraine Liu contributed to this report.
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As long as thousands starve and political prisoners toil in labor camps for years I will not have any hope for reform in this country. This dynastic rule must stop before true reforms can come into place. Just because the new "dear leader" seems to be more "hip" means nothing to me. North Korea will be either reformed by war, or a serious coup, not by the dynastic rulers.
Uh, Yeah the labor camps are going through reform now. Would be good if you did some research before posting.
@ Ted;
lol what?
Sir research was not necessary as this is not new news. I dont know if your trying to be funny with the reformed labor camps statement,but that is funny sir.
I don't hold out much hope for reform in North Korea either, but I can't imagine that the new guy has no plans of his own. I mean didn't he kick out all of the old guard? And by that I mean all the generals that were running the economy? I don't know what he's done about those departments since then, whether he's taking it all over or put others in their place.
I would be more inclined to believe in a "reform" though if North Korea focused its nuclear power more for economy rather than weapons testing.
North Korea needs to quit pooping in their Huggies and throwing a little tantrum. North Korea might need a spanking. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQcweQO7Shk&feature=g-logo-xit
Ted, What level of "reform' to a slave labor camp do you consider adequate?
Maybe let them eat a little more and be tortured a little less?
You're a real humanitarian. (Is it within the rules to call him that?)
@ ss; They have hardwired an ideaology into society that can only be broken with the end of the dynasty.
I look at it as an opening for dialogue. Kim Jong_Un is young and with a fresh mind of his own and has been out from under his families thumb enough to see there are other opportunities out there. Whether or not he is allowed to change things, time will tell, but he most certainly can plant the seeds of change.
Yes and continue to be worshipped as a God at the same time. Who would change that?lol Do not get your hopes up for change in the DPRK.
He is visiting the other evil regime as we speak. Guess what they have in common.
I think the question may be not so much is North Korea capable of change, but do they want to or have any incentive to?
@ Ed; The people definitley want change, but when your neighbor could turn you in for talkning about it and get you a long sentence,or possibly a death sentence you tend to smile and say "yes dear leader". They are suppressd to the point that the whole country is a brainwashed cult.
It is absolutely impossible to believe a militant, socialist ruler when they say anything.... Er, sorry Comrade Obama!
My oh my......now this should vault Mr. Obama to another Nobel Peace prize if he can reform North Korea in 4 months.
Yep, send in the Hillary Calvary.....or better yet.....recall her to make a speech at the DNC. Her "Modern Day Progressive" remarks would fit right in with Mr. Obama's Old Day Progressive agenda.
Did Clinton really run out of other places to give our money away? Every trip means millions $$$ from the USA.
Coco, exactly right, and why does this silly cow old woman think some communist is going to change his ways all of a sudden? Because she says he should? The poor, old wrinkled bat needs to give it up and retire while Bill chases babes.
Which Clinton is on Tour, using the American Taxpayer's money?
Many of us normal people wish we could go on tour.
Um, as the article states, that Clinton is Hillary who is Secretary of State and is allowed to travel on the taxpayers' dime for such tours and trips.
It's a simple process to get to go on tour like Hillary: dedicate all your time to helping some strong politician to get elected, tow the party line, and work long hours raising money and serving as a political consultant. After many years of hard work, you, too, can get to travel on the public dime to exotic places like China and have boring political meetings. All you need to do really is dedicate your entire life to politics. Of course, then you would no longer be normal, but what the heck - you get to go for "free".
Or you can do like the rest of us normal people, and save your pennies. Then you can do whatever you want to when you get there (as long as it's legal, lol).
Reforms are already underway and soon North Korea will go from the axis of evil to a partial trading partner. Expect it in less than 10 years.
what reforms ?really tell me THIS i gotta hear!!
Sure! Go ahead Clinton you keep looking for that reform right up until that nice mushroom cloud producing missile launches. Maybe they might even reform after they launch it.
Ummm, sure. They don't have much of a weapon, and no credible missiles...but is will happen mui pronto.
Course they are not going to change. they have the constant threat of the South, well not really, the constant threat of the US invading, well, no to that too, ah, that boatload of cubans that went the wrong way and missed florida. I think they were on a 27ft yellow boat named the stupid bee.
The hell are you talking about?
If NK needs reform, so does US.
US should stop nosing into other nations' business, preaching and dictating what others should or should not do. Refrain from warmongering postures and invasion of other sovereign nations on false pretexts. But above all US should stop supporting israel blindly which enhance israel's genocidal policy towards her neighbours.
I know one thing about the PRNK, for sure. The longer the US and other developed nations continue to furnish humanitarian, and other types of aid to this country, the longer it will be ruled by this "gang of psychotic thugs". And, it will remain a thorn in the side of the rest of the world as long as they are in charge.
I won't attempt to address the issues that would result from stopping the aid, but I know it is aiding the perpetuation of, not only the current despotic regime, but to the agonizing prolongation of the people's suffering.
Hillary's good bye tour. I hope they locked up the credit card and green card machine. Bring troops home from South Korea and the Pacific Rim nations. They can pay for their own defense.
Yank,
Check your facts. PACRIM nations (S Korea & Japan) both pay their own way and contribute to stationing costs for US troops on their soil. We benefit from forward projection (regional influence and deterrence) as much as either asian nation. Both nations have substantial defense forces that make up the bulk of the combined commands. I have worked with both nations and respect their fighting forces.
As for N Korea changing, the pace will be glacial and the demands in return are unlikely to change from the past.
Syria, North Korean, Russia, the United States ... they are all stuck with corrupt dictators.
Helpful hint, Jamie my dimwitted friend. When you can write an idiotic post like that, you do not live under a corrupt dictator.
Really,,,who's dimwitted..??
She'll offer them a few billion dollars to behave. The State Department will never learn - they have been trying to buy loyalty since WW II.
When was the last time she did that?
H Clinton North Korea is just small pea on a pod if you want to make your self stand out ask the whole world if there cabable of reform ==coyote
dorf and alvarez wow that sounds like a new comedy team !!comparing the u.s. to n.korea or syria is absurd at best ! do you idiots REALLY understand what you are saying ?no seriously?you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about get a life and a grip !!! besides that the despotic rulers in n.k. will never concede any power not now or in the near future to think otherwise shows a total lack of any understanding of the situation
the U.S. needs the reform - a goverment that represents the people! Lobbying is legalized bribary. If you dont have money in this country you are nothing. The goverment lying to us and stealing everything for themselves. The best goverment money can buy. All of them!
So you say as you complain on your shiny, high-tech computer over your broadband Internet using your uninterrupted power supply, perhaps while feasting on a completely adequate food supply.
The North Koreans would be quite thankful for any single one of those things, is my point.
we are the country that needs reform! no jobs - sent overseas so rich can get richer. This is not the best country in the world - not anymore. The media owned by corporation that just lie and spew propaganda all day long for their own benefit.
so i guess what you are trying to say is that form of govt in n.k. is more to your liking than ours?and if you think that there is abetter place to live than the u.s. i suggest you go there!!yes our country has its problems but unlike n.k.we have the ability to change it!!
This is like asking if Israel and the Palestinians will reach a peace agreement.
This is like asking Muslims to burn the Koran.
Wow North Korea has the Nukes and gets a new leader and now Hillary Clinton thinks they can change.
No wonder Iran wants the Nukes who knows if they do perhaps they too will get a visit from someone in the White House and we will read about how Iran might change.
THEY have the "military-first policy"?
Give the fat kid a chance. If he actually installs market reform as China did, the genie will be out of the bottle.
in her dreams - the North Koreans have a history of operating on a 1/4 of a brain. That has not changed.
Nuke em and get it over with!!!
Already many signs of reform. Two female faces in the auditorium, and about 10% of the guests aren't generals. But there's more: the first lady is wearing a daring new, non-green outfit. I think Kim might even have a tiny earring on, but the photo needs to be enhanced for confirmation of that.
The bad news - they're in the middle of voting to choose their favorite nuclear targets in South Korea.
Let's see what lessons US is teaching the world about nuclear weapons.
Gadhafi voluntarily gave up his nuclear program.... Dead by a NATO backed revolt.
Saddam dismantled his WMD program... Dead by American invasion.
Iran, still holding on to their nuclear program.... other than sanctions, still around, and making progress
NK, have couple of nukes... Not only still around, but seem to be succeeding a tricky leadership transfer that's inherently destabilizing in an authoritarian government.
The lesson... get your hand on a nuke, and you are safe from US and NATO interference.
In that pic of him waving and her clapping it looks like theres a pack of Camels a lighter and ash tray on the table.
From an Amercans perspective all is I know is in looking at these photos Ri-Sol Ju is a total hot little N Korean babe! If Kim has a Swiss education he is already tasted Western civiliazation and knows there is nothing better than hittin a McDonalds for munchies after drinking Saki all night chasin Swiss tail. That little eduacation alone may be enough to bring him to the bragaining table with the US. In the end the negotiations that seem so complex will in involve the US promising to build him a Disney World N Korea or maybe something so basic like E-Tickets for his entire entourage while visiting The Epcot Center...
Really There? Many in the middle east have educations from the best schools the west has to offfer, but when they get to their native soil, they change back to the ideal muslim. Western ideas of democracy and women's rights go out the window.