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Reuters
Turkish soldiers take strategic position at the Akcakale border gate in southern Sanliurfa province on Sunday.
News Analysis
SANLIURFA, Turkey – Monday was another day of cross-border violence and rising tension between Syria and Turkey.
It was also a day when Gov. Mitt Romney pledged that, if elected president, he’d change the course of events here.
Among other things, he wants to green-light heavy weapons to the Syrian rebels “who share our values” in order to “defeat the tanks, helicopters and fighter jets” of the Bashar Assad regime.
For its part, the Obama administration says it has refrained from supplying the rebels with weapons out of concern that they could end up in terrorist hands.
Others say escalating the conflict with more weapons isn’t necessarily good news for ordinary Syrians who are struggling to live along the 600-mile border – or for the U.S., given the potential for a larger regional conflagration.
Romney: Risk of conflict higher in Mideast after Obama policies
On the border – but not safe
Mahmoud Soukman is a truck driver who transports goods between Syria and Turkey. Three weeks ago he left his truck and fled with his wife, 9-month-old daughter and the clothes on their backs, moving in with his mother and siblings on a small farm just inside Turkey.
But they don’t feel safe, on either side of the border.
Mortars and shells explode ominously, and often in the distance, as Syrian rebels and government troops fight over strategic swaths of Northern Syria in the ongoing civil war. And one mortar did land near the farm house.
Meanwhile, the tit-for-tat border skirmishes between Turkey and Syria have already become routine. The Syrian Army landed a mortar again on Monday about 100 yards inside Turkey, with no casualties; and the Turks have been returning artillery fire at imprecise targets inside Syria.
Andrea Mitchell talks to Ambassador Dennis Ross about the escalating tensions between Syria and Turkey, and what both presidential candidates are saying they'll do about the situation.
Syrian President Assad’s regime offered a weak apology for the deaths of five Turkish civilians, killed last week by an allegedly errant shell. But Turkish government officials have become increasingly bellicose. On Monday, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Turks to prepare for war, if necessary.
Also on Monday, Turkish President Abdullah Gul said the "worst-case scenarios" were now playing out in Syria and Turkey would do everything necessary to protect itself.
"The worst-case scenarios are taking place right now in Syria ... Our government is in constant consultation with the Turkish military. Whatever is needed is being done immediately as you see, and it will continue to be done," Gul said.
"There will be a change, a transition sooner or later ... It is a must for the international community to take effective action before Syria turns into a bigger wreck and further blood is shed, that is our main wish," he told reporters in Ankara.
Near Soukman’s farm, we saw Turkish troops and armored personnel carriers beefing up the border, building sand berms that gave the ordinarily bucolic setting a front-line feel.
Turkey fires on Syria after another Syrian shell hits its terrority
‘Very volatile’
Some Middle East analysts see a potential tinderbox. “The situation is very volatile, very dangerous and has the potential to escalate into all-out war,” warned Professor Fawaz Gerges from the London School of Economics.
What could happen if the rebels get the shoulder-held rocket launchers and anti-aircraft weapons they want?
One likely scenario, say some Middle East experts, is that the Kremlin will loosen its own under-reported restrictions and sell the Syrian government – which Russia considers a client state – the high-tech weapons that Assad has been clamoring for.
If that were to happen, some say it has the potential to unleash an arms race – and an all-out war – on Turkey’s doorstep.
In that case, Gerges believes, just one mistake, one miscalculation, could trigger a regional war - or worse.
During a campaign speech at the Virginia Military Institute, GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney outlined his plan for easing tension in the Middle East, as well as his Syria strategy.
“If Turkey, a NATO member, is fed up and invades Syria, NATO would have no choice but to intervene in Syria. And you can bet that Iran would become involved, and this could quickly turn into a region-wide conflict between Turkey, NATO, Saudi Arabia and Qatar on the one hand, and Iran, Iraq, Hezbollah and Syria on the other.”
Luckily, this nightmare scenario can be avoided. In fact, both Russia and NATO (read: the U.S.) are using their considerable influence over Syria and Turkey, respectively, to keep tempers in check.
But Turkey is already bristling with almost 100,000 hungry Syrian refugees in camps on its border. And Assad is well aware that Turkey is largely spearheading the rebels’ fight against his regime, supplying their weapons and hosting the military wing of the opposition.
If a Syrian warplane were taken down by well-armed rebels and crashed into a Turkish village on the border, killing dozens, the incident could be the match that ignites a conflagration.
“You have the potential not only for a region-wide war, but also for international conflict as well,” said Gerges.
Machine guns operated by motorcycle brakes? Get a glimpse at the rebels fighting against Assad's forces in Syria's mountainous Jabal al-Zawiya area.
Political calculation
President Barack Obama has maintained that arming the rebels is a red line beyond which chaos could unfold, leaving the risk of an over-militarized Syria with a power vacuum – a kind of Libya on steroids.
There is also the added danger of “rogue rebels” – both al-Qaida and affiliated militants have already joined the rebels’ ranks – getting their hands on sophisticated weapons and turning them on us.
At least in his public statements, Romney doesn’t appear too concerned about either happening. Instead, he seems more focused on a victory by freedom-fighters over an evil Syrian regime. His camp says that more powerful and deadly weapons will be a game changer.
From his precarious perch overlooking the border, Soukman, the refugee truck-driver, sees only dark days ahead.
“There’s no food or water in our village. You can die from hunger,” he said. “If the fighting doesn’t calm down, maybe we’ll be here for years.”
Jim Maceda is an NBC News Correspondent based in London currently on assignment on the Turkish-Syrian border. Reuters contributed to this report.
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Leave a Comment:
Sure Mitt, prepare to send in OUR sons & daughters to fight. Prepare for a 'generational' war that would involve sending in OUR grandchildren as 'cannon fodder' while YOUR sons and their sons & daughters diligently avoid military service..... Send in more of OUR hard-earned money to fund this....Are you planning on borrowing from China to fund this? You know that just sending them arms & weapons won't be enough for your blood-lust.
We don't need or want more wars. You seem to be 'trigger-happy' and that scares the hell out of me
Mitt doesn't know shi$ about foreign policy and his speech today proves that.And did he actually flip flop for the 100th time ?
Now that Mittens is feeling euphoric with his post-debate bump in the polls, this is just a sneak peek at the brainless drivel to come.
Romney is currently not involved in foreign affairs and should keep his mouth shut. he has no idea. except Romney is willing to stir it up in the ME to gain political talking points.
Again, it is really not up to the U.S. to arm the rebels, although we can certainly assist in the vetting process. The responsibility of arming (or not arming) the rebels should be left up to the regional powers. NATO's role should be that of supplying the regional powers (i.e., the Arab League) with whatever equipment they say they need to get this situation properly resolved. - RC
(Supplying our allies in the region with military equipment is one thing; in fact we routinely do this on a regular basis right now. Supplying the Syrian rebels with military equipment is another thing entirely, and that should be left up to the regional powers who will have to live (or die) with the consequences of whatever happens in Syria.) - RC
How many 'Americas longest war' do republicans want? We have seen the disaster in Iraq and Afghanistan started by Bush and Cheney. Are the repubs to dense to learn anything from that? Funding wars cost real money - trillions of it. It costs real lives, way to many. When the soldiers get home, the repubs want to throw them under the bus. Send all the Romney boys to the Marines, front lines and lets see now how much he supports war.
Therein lies the answer to your first question.
Yes, we need to give more sophisticated weapons to the Syrian rebels. But then we'll have to train them to use them. So we'll send in trainers who will be in the back of the front lines. But then there really aren't any front lines are there? So US trainers will become prime targets for Syria's military and who knows how mayn Al-Queda terrorists. So we send in more troops to protect the trainers and advise the rebels. Can Mitt spell V I E T N A M?
He certainly can't remember it. He was on the beach in France. 2/3 of Mitt's foreign policy advisors are ex Bushers. that's what we need more neocon types pushing us into wars we can't afford and aren't for the defense of our country. If only the Republicans would heed the words of a Republican president who knew war up close and personal, Dwight Eisenhower - beware the military industrial complex.
Since Obama foriegn policy is peace through weakness, it is time to ask how weak do we need to be to prevent escalation?
Without weapons there can be no fighting so where are they coming from? They are too ignorant and poor to make any.
Romney saying "Hope Is NOT a strategy" is not even an educated guess on a statement of foreign policy. What do we have?? to know he will not change his "status" when there is influence of foreign money investors--is his money invested in China?? Why is the press repeating the hope is not a strategy as his foreign policy?? What will he do?? Has he really said a foreign policy of substance? and can we believe him? Can we believe him??
over 30,000 dead and this is not a war? what is it?
total idiot! he has his millions-why anybody would vote for this guy who will shove it to the middle class is beyond my comprehension. he doesn't care for anyone except the rich. it showed behind closed doors how he really felt about the middle class.
DO NOT ENTER, DO NOT PASS GO, DO NOT SPEND 100'S OF BILLIONS WE DON'T HAVE OR:
GO DIRECTLY TO JAIL.
Ron Paul--2012
RTCo- President Obama is more than qualified, he ended the war in Iraq and got OBL. He has also got a lot done without any boots on the ground, drones!
Now we just need out of Afghanistan
Romney and Ryan are not qualified for anything but starting another endless war, and making their buddies rich on war profiteering.
O&JOE
If Romney is elected he might just get to see what kind of Pres. Putan really is.Let's see if bullying Russia and the entire Middle East is the smarter thing to do.Every time Romney opens his mouth about foreign policies he puts his foot in his mouth.ROMNEY SHUT THE HELL UP before it gets us in another/bigger war!
This country use to be a great place to live. The last 20 years have really been a big disappointment for me. We do not have one person in the government i would vote for at this point and time. If they don't get some new people in the gov. we are going to go down as a country. We have so many illegal people in this country that we as citizens have to support, and no one is doing donkey about it. We stick our noses into everything and all it does is cost us a bunch more money. Money i an tired of paying. To our brave and Honorable fighting men and women thank you for all you have done. Your our only bright spot in this country any more. Sad to say but i will not even get off the couch to go vote for any of these loosers this year. Please someone with some brains and honor come forward and give us someone to vote for in the next election.
"To our brave and Honorable fighting men and women thank you for all you have done." I'm assuming you also mean the illegals that joined the army as well?
Just saying.
So, Romney, in this article, believes:
Just like George W., Dick Cheney, and Donald Rumsfield believed that the Iraqi's would welcome us as "Liberators" and would be naming their elementary schools after them. Wonder how many George W. Bush High Schools there are in Baghdad?
Am I the only one who sees the obvious? Warmongering Repugnicans needed an excuse to retire the Syrian regime. What better way than a few "Syrian" shells lobbed across the border into a NATO member's backyard? Hiding intentions and actions in plain sight is sometimes the best way to confound unthinking people.
Sorry Al the Syrian Gov already said they did it and tried to appologize for it. Repulbicans are war mongers and Democrates are Illegal lovers. Both are very sad group of people
The way The President handled the Gaddafi situation was Brilliant, he let NATO take the lead and we never put any Boots on their soil, the US sit back and pushed Buttons and sent Drones.
The old way of fighting Wars is over. Soon there will be no need for us to lose any more of our children.
Yes sir, leave it to NBC to try and scare the hell out of people thinking of voting for Romney. Where were you when Obama armed the Libyans to the teeth?
NBC is no longer a legitimate news outlet. They're slanted so far to the left that nobody takes them seriously anymore. I read them for fun, just like the comics.
I think if we've learned one thing over the last 10 years or so is that we definitely do NOT need to be arming rebels of any kind. Sorry, it's bit us in the ass in the past, deal with your civil war yourself...don't start something you can't finish and expect someone else to hold their neck out for you. The middle east hates us, if the USA gets involved in another conflict by arming rebels can you just IMAGINE the fodder that would give to the militants? DOWN WITH THE INFIDELS! is what they will cry before strapping on bombs with their renewed ire for everything American.
Mitt Romney - how can I put this? Your foreign policy is hopeless, you need to set aside whatever your book of Mormon is telling you about helping the JUST people of Syria and think with your brain and for the good of OUR country...of course, that is assuming you win, which right now is a 50/50 prospect.
Nitwit Romney wants a war so his friends in big business can money producing weapons. How many times in the past have the weapons America gave to rebels were used against American troops.
NO T.H.Eagan But it looks like we go to stupid schools to find our senators and candidates for all government's positions . and so bad , these people making decisions about life and death , and about sending our troops to die for all the wrong reasons , Lets see now , We attack Iraq after 19 Saudis blew our towers up and killed our innocent civilians , we are killing Alqaida in Afghanistan and bombing them illegally in a sovereign country ( Yemen ) But we are arming and training them in Syria , and paying them to fight a sovereign country , and arming them to kill the Christians in Syria and Iraq , and watching while the Egyptian government kill them too , we threaten a country and put sanctions on them killing children's and civilians , disrupting their lives in a country that never done any harm to us , just in our politicians dreams , and arming and putting bases to protect the biggest human rights violators in the world , But we keep insisting on calling our self's the freedom spreaders and bringing democracy to the world , we spy and violate every country we want air space and international waters , just do not even breath around not just our borders , even our friends and most of them are thugs and terrorists borders , now we have Mr. Romney wow , where in the hell did we dig this ass hole from , he wants to go to war , because he thinks the minute he says that , all the war monger and the Jewish lobby in this country will vote for him , he does not care about our troops lives , our economy which he is going to fix in a week , I am sure . he is not stupid , the people going to vote these people in , are the stupid and dummies , not that I care too much for Mr. Obama , But I think he really thinking before he will jump to go to war , I only hope and pray that our Generals will have the last say before this dummy Clinton decide that she wants to be the Hero that Israel and the Jewish lobby and these Kings in Saudi and Qatar are paying and pushing her to do .
Have we learned nothing over the last few years? It was insanity to inject ourselves into Iraq let alone Afghanistan and for what? It cost us thousands of lives and countless billions that blew up our debt. This lightweight will say anything to be elected... he comes out with a statement like this so he can say "hey, elect me... look how tough I am!". I bet he's being swamped with contributions from the military/industrial complex.
Just what we need, a new war... what a maroon.
Just another of the many reasons not to vote republican.
Yadda, Yadda! Sit back and watch. The Turks are going to take care of this the way it should be done! We don't have to get involved the Turks have it!
Pass the beer nuts!
US Houthkop Watch whats going top happen to your Turks buddy , the Turks are nothing but murderers and terrorists , they are arming and training these Alqaida thugs and sending them to Syria , and now that they are getting their butts kicked , the Turks wants to go in and help , if the Syrians are really firing at the Turks , why don't they answer the firing from these thugs ( the Turks ) the Syrian pushed their army positions back 10 miles to let the Turks know that they are fabricating this mortar shell BS , the Syrians will have enough , and I know the Turks got NATO to fall back to , But the Syrians will a thing or 2 for them , these days of pushing people around and killing innocent people are over . we need to be on the Syrians side since they are fighting the same thugs that attacked here on 9/11 and in Libya , but we have got a bunch of dummies in Hillary , McCain , Lieberman and Graham .