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Reuters
Turkish soldiers take strategic position at the Akcakale border gate in southern Sanliurfa province on Sunday.
News Analysis
SANLIURFA, Turkey – Monday was another day of cross-border violence and rising tension between Syria and Turkey.
It was also a day when Gov. Mitt Romney pledged that, if elected president, he’d change the course of events here.
Among other things, he wants to green-light heavy weapons to the Syrian rebels “who share our values” in order to “defeat the tanks, helicopters and fighter jets” of the Bashar Assad regime.
For its part, the Obama administration says it has refrained from supplying the rebels with weapons out of concern that they could end up in terrorist hands.
Others say escalating the conflict with more weapons isn’t necessarily good news for ordinary Syrians who are struggling to live along the 600-mile border – or for the U.S., given the potential for a larger regional conflagration.
Romney: Risk of conflict higher in Mideast after Obama policies
On the border – but not safe
Mahmoud Soukman is a truck driver who transports goods between Syria and Turkey. Three weeks ago he left his truck and fled with his wife, 9-month-old daughter and the clothes on their backs, moving in with his mother and siblings on a small farm just inside Turkey.
But they don’t feel safe, on either side of the border.
Mortars and shells explode ominously, and often in the distance, as Syrian rebels and government troops fight over strategic swaths of Northern Syria in the ongoing civil war. And one mortar did land near the farm house.
Meanwhile, the tit-for-tat border skirmishes between Turkey and Syria have already become routine. The Syrian Army landed a mortar again on Monday about 100 yards inside Turkey, with no casualties; and the Turks have been returning artillery fire at imprecise targets inside Syria.
Andrea Mitchell talks to Ambassador Dennis Ross about the escalating tensions between Syria and Turkey, and what both presidential candidates are saying they'll do about the situation.
Syrian President Assad’s regime offered a weak apology for the deaths of five Turkish civilians, killed last week by an allegedly errant shell. But Turkish government officials have become increasingly bellicose. On Monday, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Turks to prepare for war, if necessary.
Also on Monday, Turkish President Abdullah Gul said the "worst-case scenarios" were now playing out in Syria and Turkey would do everything necessary to protect itself.
"The worst-case scenarios are taking place right now in Syria ... Our government is in constant consultation with the Turkish military. Whatever is needed is being done immediately as you see, and it will continue to be done," Gul said.
"There will be a change, a transition sooner or later ... It is a must for the international community to take effective action before Syria turns into a bigger wreck and further blood is shed, that is our main wish," he told reporters in Ankara.
Near Soukman’s farm, we saw Turkish troops and armored personnel carriers beefing up the border, building sand berms that gave the ordinarily bucolic setting a front-line feel.
Turkey fires on Syria after another Syrian shell hits its terrority
‘Very volatile’
Some Middle East analysts see a potential tinderbox. “The situation is very volatile, very dangerous and has the potential to escalate into all-out war,” warned Professor Fawaz Gerges from the London School of Economics.
What could happen if the rebels get the shoulder-held rocket launchers and anti-aircraft weapons they want?
One likely scenario, say some Middle East experts, is that the Kremlin will loosen its own under-reported restrictions and sell the Syrian government – which Russia considers a client state – the high-tech weapons that Assad has been clamoring for.
If that were to happen, some say it has the potential to unleash an arms race – and an all-out war – on Turkey’s doorstep.
In that case, Gerges believes, just one mistake, one miscalculation, could trigger a regional war - or worse.
During a campaign speech at the Virginia Military Institute, GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney outlined his plan for easing tension in the Middle East, as well as his Syria strategy.
“If Turkey, a NATO member, is fed up and invades Syria, NATO would have no choice but to intervene in Syria. And you can bet that Iran would become involved, and this could quickly turn into a region-wide conflict between Turkey, NATO, Saudi Arabia and Qatar on the one hand, and Iran, Iraq, Hezbollah and Syria on the other.”
Luckily, this nightmare scenario can be avoided. In fact, both Russia and NATO (read: the U.S.) are using their considerable influence over Syria and Turkey, respectively, to keep tempers in check.
But Turkey is already bristling with almost 100,000 hungry Syrian refugees in camps on its border. And Assad is well aware that Turkey is largely spearheading the rebels’ fight against his regime, supplying their weapons and hosting the military wing of the opposition.
If a Syrian warplane were taken down by well-armed rebels and crashed into a Turkish village on the border, killing dozens, the incident could be the match that ignites a conflagration.
“You have the potential not only for a region-wide war, but also for international conflict as well,” said Gerges.
Machine guns operated by motorcycle brakes? Get a glimpse at the rebels fighting against Assad's forces in Syria's mountainous Jabal al-Zawiya area.
Political calculation
President Barack Obama has maintained that arming the rebels is a red line beyond which chaos could unfold, leaving the risk of an over-militarized Syria with a power vacuum – a kind of Libya on steroids.
There is also the added danger of “rogue rebels” – both al-Qaida and affiliated militants have already joined the rebels’ ranks – getting their hands on sophisticated weapons and turning them on us.
At least in his public statements, Romney doesn’t appear too concerned about either happening. Instead, he seems more focused on a victory by freedom-fighters over an evil Syrian regime. His camp says that more powerful and deadly weapons will be a game changer.
From his precarious perch overlooking the border, Soukman, the refugee truck-driver, sees only dark days ahead.
“There’s no food or water in our village. You can die from hunger,” he said. “If the fighting doesn’t calm down, maybe we’ll be here for years.”
Jim Maceda is an NBC News Correspondent based in London currently on assignment on the Turkish-Syrian border. Reuters contributed to this report.
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Leave a Comment:
What a bunch of Bull $hit. One of the other articles today said that the Hussein Administration was already covertly supplying weapons to the Rebels. Now after Romney says something this story comes out. They will do anything to paint Romney in a bad light & Hussein in a better light. I will go back , find it & post it here.
TO: Kevin D. Hoke who wrote:
No one ever said that President Obama was conducting any "covert" operation, and if there is a "covert" operation going on anywhere in the world it would be a felony to take Top Secret information and post it in the public domain.
The article says that Romney wants to arm the rebels, and you don't have to look for it, it's right at the top of THIS page!
Obama/Biden 2012
Or may be Jimmy, the good guys might win. Iran is flooding Assad's troops with weapons and men.
Mitt Romney has no problem laying down your life for his country.
William did Obuuuuuuuuuuumma serve in any branch of the military?
TB, No but I did, Vietnam you arse. Nephew in Pakistan, what a tool.
Obama 2012
Trapped in your miniscule, pathetic, un-educated 2 party system are you??
There's been a lot of talk about "Obama not serving in the military", let's take a look at where our country was when he was in the Prime Military serving age (18-26 years old).
Obama was born in 1961. That would have made him 18 years old in 1979. About 4 years after we were finally through with Vietnam. By the time he hit 26 years old in 1987, what major conflicts did our country endure that badly needed his service?
There was the embassy hostage situation in Iran, but our military's involvement was pretty minimal. There was a little military engagement on the island of Grenada that was over in about a week's time. There was our small occupation in Beirut that ended with our Marine Barracks being bombed, but even this resulted in our rather rapid departure from Lebanon, instead of "doubling down".
All in all, our military at the time was not hard pressed to meet its enlisted and officer ranks. Plenty of people to join this all volunteer force.
Romney, on the other hand... He was 18 in 1965, and turned 26 in 1973 as the draft was being discontinued. Not only did he NOT volunteer to serve his country, he managed to get deferments to AVOID serving even if his country came calling and asked him to serve.
That's a big difference between Mitt Romney's time as an 18-26 year old and Obama's time as an 18-26 year old. For Obama, there simply was no war for him to serve in. I guess he could have joined the Navy or something and chipped paint for 4 years, but he wasn't needed by his country. Romney was.
As was Romney's 5 boys. His two oldest were between the ages of 18-26 when the first Gulf War kicked off in 1990. They didn't serve. His 3 youngest boys were between the ages of 18-26 following 9/11/2001 up until today... None of those boys ever served. We now have half a dozen Romneys, all young men during three major wars (Vietnam, Gulf War, and Iraq/Afghanistan Wars). None have served.
When asked about his boys lack of participation in serving their country, Mitt was quoted as saying, "My boys are serving their country - By working to get me elected President". Oh joy...
Cowardly families should not open their mouths to discuss topics that are outside their realm of experience.
Our country needed Obama for the last three years and he was awol, as in empty chair.
Yeah... And a Draft Dodger with his 5 elitist, entitled sons who are "too good to serve in our military" will do a better job, eh?
Good luck with that.
how about a new party called the middle class party. We find someone to actually do what most of the people in this country want done. Get rid of the Dems and Repubs and just get someone with some common sence to come in and straighten it all out. I think its time we send Washington a message and have the lowest voter turn out in history showing that no one in this country has faith in anyone running so why waste our time to get off the couch and support any of them..
Sounds like "nbc 'news'" has officially moved their operations into the West Wing......right next Obama's propaganda division, pmsnbc.
I gotta tell you Jim Maceda....that is the dumbest statement I have heard in years.....I am sure the Rebels over there want to continue fighting with rocks and sling-shots....while Assad has Iranian missiles, tanks, and mortars. Ya, Jim....what hole did you craw out of ?? Only a liberial moran, would make a statement like that, and of course the liberial morians leader...King Obama. Let's just set tight, Im sure they do not want any real weapons....right Jim and Obama.....Yo....dumb.
You don't even know who "they" are.
We have too many young people who are still alive!! We need more dead heros!!
War mongers unite!! Vote Romney/Ryan 2012!!!!!!~!
SO LET ME UNDERTAND THIS........The obama team and media is scolding romney for saying he would supply arms to rebels in Syria, even thou we all know that the CIA is already doing it behind the scene. But in todays world, nothing is behind the scene.
A well known fact that we are supplying small arms through the Saudis and Qatar, its the big stuff, give the, whoever "them" is, oust Assad then point the big stuff at Israel off the Golan Heights, jeez.
Obama 2012
So exactly does Romney and the rest of the warmongers determine who "shares 'our' values?" Didn't Romney and his party admonished Obama when he decided to aid the rebels in Libya, but now it's somehow different?
MSNBC....the Obama station....off again making dumb, and dumber comments....only liferial socialist can make.
Obama, loves you, the rest of us....see right through ya.
Dan from Tampa,,, you're out of your mind.
I'm pretty sure I'm not a liferial socialist.
Dan go now and jump off a real big bridge you jack ass
Mitt wants to pay back the defense contractors for their support...like the 2 trillion he wants to add to the Pentagon budget...
We need to get out of these conflicts...
Romney doesn't want to be left behind in the republican wars. We didn't need to be in Iraq and Afghanistan. We don't need to be in Syria. this is his way of keeping Haliburton and the other war support machines in the black with lotz of profits. Before my dad passed away in 1987, he reminded me that when republications take over the presidency, there is always one or more wars. and my dad is a life long republican. I am a registered republican as in our family tradition, but ronald reagan's prosperity didn't trickle down to us, both terms, and my husband was active duty military at that time. so we have been voting democrat since then, because it seems like the democrats have abit more heart for the struggling active duty military personnel. While the republicans and romney keep egging on another war, what has happened to our infrastructure in the USA? Romney's international tour was a bunch of hogwash. No one wanted to talk to him, cuz he is a wannabe. He has no credentials. He is not a member of congress (house or senate). he has no power to make a difference, and now he speaks of arming a foreign country's people? He is egging on another war.
Now, Romney wants to dismantle early education for all young ones by killing off Big Bird's funding. Sesame Street has raised all our young ones for so many years, and is a blessing. It's always G-rated.
...and of course Mr. Romney wants to dump more weapons into the situation, thereby ensuring the all-out-war and then he'll argue we (meaning the United States - the world's cop) needs to put troops there to restore order. I don't think we can afford more of that kind of cowboy diplomacy. Let's let the cooler heads and those who are interested in long-term solutions, not another armed conflict, settle this.
For people who read & think: if you are concerned about foreign policy, use Google to locate Michael Lewis's piece in Vanity Fair about a month ago called, "Obama's Way;" no one can read that and then say this president is unqualified to solve complex and messy problems. Unlike the other guy, he thinks before he opens his yap.
Then VOTE! O & B!
KJNC, an excellent article, for the Romney fans, Check Out Vanity Fair's July Issue "Where The Money Lives," a big eye-opener on Romney and his over-stuffed tax payer subsidized bank account.
Obama 2012
No one actually doesn't think that there is a way that he and the other 1%er's will be able to make money off of a war? Why else would he even be considering this, oh I remember because he is an a##. He and the other rich will not be sacrificing a single husband, child, mother, son or daughter, kill off that 47% that are just a bunch of victims! Look how rich the 1% got under GW, he created more millionaires than any other president.
critical times hard to deal with, will be here.
Yeah, sure, Romney. Let's spend another few hundred billion bucks that we have to borrow from China. We can help set up another Muslim brotherhood country so they can turn on us when it gets established. Who knows, it may even jack up oil stock (and prices) to a level nobody can afford.
Then we can have a finger-pointing exercise over who gets the blame.
If Romney wins, buy stock in defense contractors, as Bain will be scooping them up to make billion's!!!
Want to get filthy rich?? Want to get rid of our young people who are still alive?? Vote Romney 2012!!!
I noticed they included Iraq in the list of Assad supporters/allies. That's new. Romney will chastise Obama for suporting rebels in Libya, then, wants to do same in Syria? Somebody at NBC needs drug tested.
Why is it NBC's fault that Romney is a hypocrite?
stop the repub war machine -- they are beating the drums again
Romney,,, shoot first, ask questions later. Moron.
Romney and his running mate Ryan, are constantly bringing up the deficit, so where is all that money going to come from to aid the Syrian rebels....? The Republican party is constantly telling the American taxpayer, the Entitlement programs are costing us too much, and need revamping. Now Romney wants to increase the money going to the Military Corporate Complex, in the form of arms and ammo to the Syrian rebels. Now Romney wants to resurrect NASA. Now Romney wants to give huge tax breaks to the really wealthy. Where is the money for these programs going to come from?
Medicare and social security
Both politcal parties love to spend money. They just spend it on different agendas. But the BIG difference is, the Democrats want to try to pay for it.
Someday, EVERYONE is going th be taxed at 90% to pay for this mess.
I was with you 9ball until the last statement. Are you kidding us or what. For example, look at the state the dems have with their spend, spend, spend, spend, spend policies in California. The same applies to them on the national stage. Is the republicans any better....not by a long shot, but to make that statement is a flat out lie.
I beg to differ.
Repubs have short memories. Reagan increased the deficit 188% building space junk that never made it into space. George W. 100%+ on two wars and tax cuts. If you attribute current spending on Iraq and Afghanistan to Bush, which you should, then Obama has increased the deficit even less. Two past presidents (both Republican) are responsible for more than half the deficit this country has built up over 236 years! And both of them gave tax cuts. What a coincindence!
And Obama want to raise taxes, only on the wealthy, to try to curb the deficit. Clinton left with a surplus. Name the last Republican president to leave us with a surplus. You have to go back more than 50 years.
The dems went along with all the items you pointed out 9ball. Especially the two wars and tax cuts. Presidents can only spend the money............Congress has to approve PERIOD. So my points still stands, the dems are just as bad as the republicans. And raising the taxes on anyone will not solve the problem, not even close.
Actually, Congress passes the spending bills. The President has to approve.
It just seems to me that Republican presidents rubber stamp more deficit spending than Dem presidents. Just an observation, that's pretty much based on merit.
Shut your mouth Mr. Romney you are not the President! Your input isn't wanted or needed since you have no idea on foreign policy and you've shown you have no responsible voice so far when it comes to foreign policy.
No one wants a big LIAR giving out advise!Yes you Mr. Romney are a big LIAR, you can't be trusted!
YES WE CAN re-elect President Obama!
Vote Republican...there are wars to be had!
Okay, I think Obama definitely has winning arguments already prepared for the foreign policy debate after this thoughtful and informed (not) speech.