Scientists found guilty of manslaughter for failing to predict Italy quake

Maurizio Degl'innocenti / EPA, file

More than 300 people died after a quake in L'Aquila, Italy on April 6, 2009. The city was strewn with rubble and thousands left homeless.

A court in the Italian city of L’Aquila on Monday convicted six scientists and one government official of manslaughter for failing to give sufficient warning of a fatal earthquake that hit in 2009.

The judge sentenced each man to six years in jail and ordered them to pay compensation and legal fees.


The prosecution case had centered on a meeting the seven defendants, members of a commission on natural disasters, held in L’Aquila on March 31 2009, in which they told residents there was no cause for concern after a series of minor shocks had rocked the city in the preceding six months.

Less than a week later, in the early hours of April 6, a 6.3-magnitude quake reduced much of the medieval city to rubble, leaving 309 people dead and more than 60,000 homeless, according to news reports at the time.

In a  memo issued after the March 31 meeting, the experts concluded that it was "improbable" that there would be a major quake, although they stopped short of entirely excluding the possibility.

The public prosecutor, Fabio Picuti, had accused the defendants of giving "inexact, incomplete and contradictory information" about whether the smaller tremors should have constituted grounds for an official quake warning.

Picuti acknowledged that predicting where, when and with what force a quake would strike is scientifically impossible, but said the risk of a big temblor was not taken seriously enough. He argued the commission’s discussions were too generic and completely failed to address the risk at hand.

“The key word in this trial is the word analysis. How do you proceed with an analysis of risk, or an analysis of seismic risk? Do you proceed in a manner that the defendants have shown us?” Picuti said in comments to the court on Monday. 

Defense lawyer Franco Coppi told the court it would indeed be a problem if the risk had been foreseen and inevitable.

“But if an event cannot be foreseen, and more importantly if it is unavoidable,” Coppi said. “It is impossible to speak about how a risk has not been foreseen."

Italy's long earthquake history hidden in ancient records

The decision to prosecute the seven, who are among leading figures in Italian seismology, had caused alarm among the scientific community.

In a report commissioned by the Italian government in the immediate aftermath of the L’Aquila disaster, the International Commission of Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) highlighted the many difficulties of making accurate time-sensitive predictions, within timescales usually calculated in decades, not weeks or months. 

But the ICEF report’s findings also called for better public communication, not just of day-to-day temblor hazards but also by setting alert levels that take into account the advantage of being psychologically prepared for when a quake hits.

Scientists on trial for failing to predict Italian quake

An open letter to Italian president Giorgio Napolitano, signed by more than 5,000 members of the international scientific community, criticized the proceedings.

In a separate letter to the Italian president, the American Association for the Advancement of Science called the charges "unfair and naïve," saying, "There is no accepted scientific method for earthquake prediction that can be reliably used to warn citizens of an impending disaster."

Despite the protests, the trial opened in September 2011.

The seven convicted of manslaughter were:

Enzo Boschi, then-president of Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) in Rome;

Franco Barberi, at the University of 'Rome Tre';

Mauro Dolce, head of the seismic-risk office at the national Department of Civil Protection in Rome;

Claudio Eva, from the University of Genova;

Giulio Selvaggi, director of the INGV’s National Earthquake Centre in Rome;

Gian Michele Calvi, president of the European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering in Pavia;

and a government official, Bernardo De Bernardinis, then vice director of the Department of Civil Protection.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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The Government wants the Scientist to be ACCOUNTABLE???

I think that quake prediction is about as accurate as the weather predictions...

The more you know the better you become, unfortunately they are still discovering the natural occurrences that effect the outcome...

  • 31 votes
#1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:30 AM EDT
Comment author avatarAC RobertsonExpand Comment Comment collapsed by the community

How many know about the

1. The Madden Julian Oscillation(MJO), or 40 day wave as it is sometimes called, was first discovered by Madden and Julian in the early 1970s...

2. North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change, was first discovered by Georgia Institute of Technology in the early 2007s...

3. Global ice coverage observations were not established until 1979...

4. Global CO2 levels was not established until the 1970s, prior to this it was one spot on the side of a active volcano, sense 1949...

But the Climate Scientist are now able to predict Global weather/temperature patterns, in a climate cycle that is 120,000+years long... Ha! Ha!

  • 9 votes
#1.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:50 AM EDT

120,000 years old? but 46% of Americans believe the earth is only 6,000 years old!

As for the Scientists, Italy should charge the Pope with the deaths from the earthquake. Only God can make an earthquake, right? Surely the Pope should have prayed harder.

  • 60 votes
#1.2 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:59 AM EDT

I think that quake prediction is about as accurate as the weather predictions...

Then you don't think too much.

  • 9 votes
#1.3 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:07 AM EDT
Comment author avatarJeff-1592116Expand Comment Comment collapsed by the community

How many know about the

1. The Madden JulianOscillation(MJO), or 40 day wave as it is sometimes called, was first discovered by Madden and Julian in the early 1970s...

2. North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change, was first discovered by Georgia Institute of Technology in the early 2007s...

3. Global ice coverage observations were not established until 1979...

4. Global CO2 levels was not established until the 1970s, prior to this it was one spot on the side of a active volcano, sense 1949...

But the Climate Scientist are now able to predict Global weather/temperature patterns, in a climate cycle that is 120,000+years long... Ha! Ha!

And is there a point to all your unrelated psychobabble?

You're not proving anything is invalid, you're just throwing sh!t at the wall and hoping something sticks. Be smarter, for an argument then get back with us. :)

  • 15 votes
#1.4 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:11 AM EDT
Comment author avatarokie58Expand Comment Comment collapsed by the community

and the socialist people could not think for themselves how amazing

  • 6 votes
#1.5 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:44 AM EDT

All academics, scientists included, rush to publish papers. It's how they earn grants and project funding. I accept that, however what I do question is making rash & improbable statements to garner attention without forethought to the consequences.

I think this case highlights the fact that so many either ignore or dont even comprehend: Be responsible for your statements, if you say the sky is falling then at least add the probability of your prediction, and if you dont and people get hurt, its on you. I guess its like calling fire in a crowded theater?

  • 1 vote
#1.6 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:44 AM EDT

The problem with holding scientists with being accountable if they don't give an adequate enough warning before earthquakes is, that you will end up having them give too many false warnings, just to legally cover their backsides. The dangers in trying to have a large population evacuate due to a possible earthquake is quite real. You have those who may plunder and commit crimes, the risks of accidents from panicked people fleeing if they feel they are out of time, confusion as to where to go for safety, violence from those who are the natural criminal elements plus traffic jams.

All that may not even be necessary, just because scientists are now going to make sure they don't face jail if they are wrong. If no earthquake occurs, will they still be sued if people are injured evacuating, is also the question? Leaving the decision up to the people, some may leave others not. You still have the risk of looters, traffic problems. Then one should remember, those who live close to volcanoes, who grow used to the threats and ashes. Eventually they ignore the warnings. How many would ignore the scientists after so many false times?

Last keep in mind, a big one may not strike for weeks after minor shocks are felt. Those who work to protect people from earthquakes may not desire to stay when faced with such liabilities. Especially in Italy. That country just may be placing its citizens in more danger if experts leave to work in other countries instead, where they won't be held accountable legally.

  • 23 votes
#1.7 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:52 AM EDT

All academics, scientists included, rush to publish papers.

Strawman. I don't have time debating that BS.

I think this case highlights the fact that so many either ignore or dont even comprehend: Be responsible for your statements, if you say the sky is falling then at least add the probability of your prediction, and if you dont and people get hurt, its on you. I guess its like calling fire in a crowded theater?

The argument isn't that they made a statement, it's that they didn't make the statement.

  • 5 votes
#1.8 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:30 AM EDT

And, had they warned of an impending quake, and it didn't happen, I'm guessing they would've been found criminally negligent in causing unnecessary panic in and cost to people who left their homes to shack up in better buildings in neighboring towns.

It's an absolute miscarriage of justice that they've even been charged with and tried for crimes, but if they're found guilty to boot, then Italy will have leveled an incredibly crippling blow against science, since people will have to fear for their very lives to study and/or practice it, which I doubt many if any will want to do.

Ridiculous is nowhere near a strong enough word for what these seismologists are being subjected to.

  • 32 votes
#1.9 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:39 AM EDT

The real lesson from this, stay away from Italy.

  • 26 votes
#1.10 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:26 AM EDT

And I thought that Americans were the most litigious people on earth...

  • 18 votes
#1.11 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:51 AM EDT

Give me a break , there is no reliable model to date that can with any certainty predict an earthquake . To charge scientists with this sort of thing is ridiculous at best . Besides a 6.3 isn't all that strong , I've felt plenty of stronger ones , living in an ancient city with nothing resembling earthquake standards when these buildings were built is the crazy part . I would blame the city for allowing such buildings to still be occupied if I were to blame anyone for the deaths .

  • 18 votes
#1.12 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:53 AM EDT

The result of this is, scientists will be reluctant to say anything either way. Life on this planet is not guaranteed. The old buildings collapsed because Italians are too cheap to build new earthquake resistant structures. A significant part of the world is in the same boat.

  • 13 votes
#1.13 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:25 PM EDT

government should be held accountable for allowing the farmers to make deeper wells just plain sick this world is a dump full of tards and whoever held them accountable should rot, fracking, oil companies hold them all accountable

  • 6 votes
#1.14 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:28 PM EDT

they would be better off quiting there job

  • 2 votes
#1.15 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:34 PM EDT

What scientists do is "discovery". When they discover something, they tell about it in "publications". All other scientists should doubt the results until the scientific communities confirm the results by other work or examining if the conclusion made the discoverers are accurate and without other possible explanations. Scientists should not be accountable to what they say. They should absolutely tell the truth about their observations and findings. They also has the right to interpret, explain or speculate what they think about the results. It is very unfortunate that people mistake what scientists say as "absolute truth". We are smart. We know a lot. However, there is a lot more that we don't know. Thus we thrust forward. Don't persecute scientists with the "blame game"...

On the other hand, government officials, people with authorities, or licensed for specific regulations, must be accountable to what they say.

Why are the financial officials, licensed stock and finance advisers not held accountable for their failure to warn, predict or having accurate knowledge that the financial conditions of a financial sector or a country is in trouble causing multitude of people losing their jobs, their livelihood or lives lost?

  • 5 votes
#1.16 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:54 PM EDT

This is the dumbest f'ing thing I have ever heard. Seriously, scientists can't "predict" earthquakes.

  • 12 votes
#1.17 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:13 PM EDT

Jeff-1592116

You seem to think that earthquake prediction is a precise science, it is not. There are many examples where there have been tremblers and small quakes and then nothing happened. There are quakes every day in California yet no major quake has happened, especially the BIG one. You can not make a prediction based solely on previous smaller quakes, it is even harder in an active fault zone where there is much seismic activity on an almost daily basis. I think you need to study your geology a lot more before making your rediculous statements. Predicting the weather is a more precise science than Seismology.

  • 6 votes
#1.18 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:15 PM EDT

All academics, scientists included, rush to publish papers.

false. As Jeff said, I don't have time to debate this BS.

    #1.19 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:20 PM EDT

    I agree with Lynseypug completely! Scientists do not have the ear of 'God' but, according to the CC and the Pope, they do, right? Then let's hold him and the church and, in fact, all religious institutions that claim God speaks to them, responsible for all the terrible natural disasters this planet endures constantly!

    The Italians will prosecute and sue anyone for anything! If you plan on going there on vacation be sure you understand the chances you are taking.. If you look wrong, if you speak incorrectly, if you belittle or put down anyone or anything you could wind up in court being sued by the Italian government for all of these reasons and a million more! And God forbid you should be anywhere around a murder, you could easily wind up convicted for the crime even when you had nothing at all to do with it! I would put Italy on my no-fly, dangerous places list, right beside the entire Middle-East, Mexico and Columbia..

    • 2 votes
    #1.20 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:01 PM EDT

    All this is coming to America.... we are being taught everyday to BLAME others for everything.....

    • 7 votes
    #1.21 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:02 PM EDT

    I think that quake prediction is about as accurate as the weather predictions...

    Then you don't think too much.

    Hopefully you mean here that quake prediction is even less accurate than weather prediction and are not implying (as you seem to be) that quake prediction is possible today. From usgs.gov FAQ:

    Can you predict earthquakes?

    No. Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California.The USGS focuses their efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions.

    • 2 votes
    #1.22 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:19 PM EDT

    Coming soon to Italian tv:

    Anchor: Well Antonio, what will the weather be like this week ?

    Antonio: we'll have weather.

    Anchor: Anything further.

    Antonio: Nope, not going to say anything else.

    Anchor: Well, will it rain, be sunny, cloudy, temperature ?

    Antonio: Nope, not going to say anything else.

    Thank you Mr. Prosecutor for setting science back to the 15th Century. Can you say inquisition ?

    • 9 votes
    #1.23 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:22 PM EDT

    Another perfect example of the Nanny-State! Who will they sue when the asteroid hits? Guess it won't matter.

    • 2 votes
    #1.24 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:24 PM EDT

    This type of political stupidity will kill tourism in Italy! I think the people should consider throwing this less than brilliant judge and prosecutor to the trash heap. What is going on with Italian law these days? This is worse than the frame up they did on Amanda Knox!

    • 7 votes
    #1.25 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:33 PM EDT

    I wish the anti-science crowd would put their money where their mouths are and stop using technology which SCIENCE brought them. Then again it wouldn't surprise me if they thought God invented the silicon chip.

    • 3 votes
    #1.26 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:05 PM EDT

    Rediculous. Quake prediction is, so far, impossible. To place the blame for deaths caused by an earthquake on any individual (aside from Dr.Evil) is as credible as convicting Austin Powers for breaking the time barrier.

    • 3 votes
    #1.27 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:11 PM EDT

    Way to go Italy! Great way to remove some of your best educated and most productive citizens from the general population. Don't you know that no one but God can predict and earthquake? Just ask the Pope about that. He lives right there with you people in a city called Rome.

    • 3 votes
    #1.28 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:19 PM EDT

    A court in the Italian city of L'Aquila on Monday convicted six scientists and one government official of manslaughter for failing to give sufficient warning of a fatal earthquake that hit in 2009.

    What next? Convicting weathermen because it rained after they predicted sunny skies?

    How about the seismologists that are predicting an earthquake in California? They have no idea when, just that it will occur sometime between now and forever. How’s that for accuracy? Better start stocking up on canned goods and ammo.

    • 2 votes
    #1.29 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:28 PM EDT

    This gives me a great idea, we should put those scientists on trial who said the LHC was going to create a miniature black hole and gobble up the world when the atoms started smashing. They failed to predict correctly what was going to happen, and as a result they caused panic. Any scientist who ever gets it wrong should now be convicted of a crime.

    Thankfully, I expect these scientists will have their convictions overturned like that one girl and her British boyfriend did.

    • 1 vote
    #1.30 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:31 PM EDT

    It figures that AC would try to inject climate science into a discussion about earthquakes. The facts are that the Earth's atmosphere and oceans are clearly warming (at least since the 1970s), and the risks are very high and should not be ignored. The 120,000-year ice age cycle is fairly well-understood and has little to do with what's happening now.

    • 1 vote
    #1.31 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:50 PM EDT

    Richard 1.30

    For the same reasons as claim of the LHC creating a black hole, I expect lawyers by the hundreds are lining up to sue the descendents of the Mayans if the sun rises on December 22nd.

    • 6 votes
    #1.32 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:54 PM EDT

    This is the same type of stunt that could be pulled here in America if Mittens is elected. Him and Pauley Shore will put those who disagree or won't tow the party lie or kowtow to them in "relearning camps."

    The GOP, Catholicks, any religion hates the use of science to prove them wrong. The Pope and the Catholick Crutch is behind the times. I woke this AM and thought that the earth spun backwards to the crusades. Hmm wait, no thats just the GOPs agenda via their RAHOWA..

    • 1 vote
    #1.33 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:20 PM EDT

    Jeff-1592116

    I wish the anti-science crowd would put their money where their mouths are and stop using technology which SCIENCE brought them.

    I second that motion. It's beyond insulting that people take with one hand the fruits of modern civilization and give with the other a big fat middle finger to the philosophy that creates those fruits.

    • 3 votes
    #1.34 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:54 PM EDT

    Clearly this is the case where the real culprit is blaming science. We all know that earthquakes and everything of the like are "ACTS OF GOD" and therefore the churches should be held accountable and the priest be charged with manslaughter, not the scientist.

    I'm not being serious here, but it makes just as much sense as what they are doing.

      #1.35 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:42 PM EDT

      lynseypug

      120,000 years old? but 46% of Americans believe the earth is only 6,000 years old!

      I am christian, myself and every Christian I know of including every church they attend know the earth is hundreds of millions of years old, AND THEY TEACH THAT!

      You should now feel very stupid for your ASININE comment, as you make it on every article you can. Maybe a few vocal left wing religious nuts claim otherwise, but your assumption that Christianity teaches the earth is only 6000 years old is absolutely wrong; for anyone to claim this would not understand basic scripture. No where in the bible does it claim the earths age, ANYWHERE!

        #1.36 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:36 PM EDT

        K. Truant

        You probably don't know too many people from outside of your hometown then. When they teach creationism in public schools they say the earth is 6000 years old, and if you are like a friend I had who went to high school in Oklahoma the teachers spent 1 week on creationism and 1 day on evolution.

        • 1 vote
        #1.37 - Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:11 AM EDT

        Zim

        You are confusing the issue, how old the earth is has nothing to do with the argument between creation ad evaluation. Most biblical scholars would state that modern science proves creation as the more complex system science discovered, and the more they realize nothing is random it more and more shows design than random chance. As for the age of the earth, the bible does not say how old it is, but it does say the fall of Satan was before the creation of man, so this indicates a prehistory to the earth created "mispriint" in modern bibles. The root word used here has more than 1 meaning, it also means re-created.

          #1.38 - Tue Oct 23, 2012 8:55 AM EDT

          K Truant: Here's the link to the Gallop Poll that found that 46% of Americans believe in young earth evolution. Not my opinion, just what I've read in the news. Living in Tennessee, I'd have thought the figure was much higher, but growing up in the Midwest during the 1970s, I'd never met a "creationist".

          http://www.gallup.com/poll/21814/evolution-creationism-intelligent-design.aspx

            #1.39 - Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:42 AM EDT

            Truant,

            We have Republican Congressmen on the Congressional Science Committee that believe this crap. Just because some Christians are sane, don't think they all are.

            The creationists are a perverted sub group of Christianity and if you think they don't exist, you are fooling yourself. At least 60% of the Tea Baggers believe this. Nobody is giving these people credit for being smart, but there are a whole lot of them and unfortunately they are allowed to vote. You have obviously lived a sheltered life. I would never call one of these folks my friends, but I know more than a few of them.

              #1.40 - Sun Oct 28, 2012 6:51 PM EDT
              Reply

              Oh, great. Now we have ten years of genocide trials to look foward to for those who don't support man-made global warming.

              • 12 votes
              Reply#2 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:31 AM EDT

              I find it somewhat ironic that Italy, the home of the Catholic church would confer enough respect on science and scientists as to convict them for not predicting an earth quake. These people obviously trust what their scientists tell them. Fat chance of that ever happening in this country!

              Now maybe we may see some convictions of scientists here in the future, but it will be convictions for being witches!

              And don't for one minute think that this is in any way a part of religion jumping on science, Italy is far less religious than the US, even counting those in the Vatican.

                #2.1 - Sun Oct 28, 2012 7:00 PM EDT
                Reply

                Do these officials have spaghetti for brains? How many people would've reacted differently if the warning had been worded differently?

                Closer to home, I'm suing the weather man for issuing that "40% chance of showers" nonsense. Anyone without spaghetti for brains could see it was obviously a 44% chance. I demand justice. In fact, I didn't want any rain at all that day. I demand justice and compensation.

                • 18 votes
                Reply#3 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:44 AM EDT

                When I read this I thought it must be hell being an Italian weatherman.

                • 24 votes
                #3.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:04 AM EDT

                No, not really. Warm and sunny. Warm and sunny. Occasional volcanic eruption. Warm and sunny.

                • 10 votes
                #3.2 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:17 AM EDT

                If you're an Italian Siesmologist, from now on, the stock answer should be:

                "A large one is coming in the future and idiots who live and work in unreinforced masonry buildings will die. Spend some money, study Californian and Japanese building codes, tear down the ancient sh!t and build sturdy, earthquake resistant habitation or FOAD."

                • 5 votes
                #3.3 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:35 PM EDT

                This is nothing more or less than the Italian magistrate system at work. These magistrates are all elected and wield enormous power over the prosecution, defense, and the police investigation in these cases. Because the magistrates are always running for very short term office, they tend to pander to the voters a great deal. The apex of voter pandering there is the same as here --- finding someone to blame.

                The system is allowed to continue here because, like the Knox trial and many other spectacular Italian trials gone wrong, they are virtually always overturned on appeal by professional appointed judges who have no need to pander to the voters.

                The trial to watch for this in the near future is the trial of the Costa Lines captain for various malfeasance and manslaughter charges. In fact, the captain is guilty of both bad judgement and some very good decisions. But he will be tried as the one person to blame and will get a huge sentence. The incident will be forgotten and the cruise line will suffer no legal penalties. And the captain will have his sentence dramatically reduced on appeal.

                • 3 votes
                #3.4 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:50 PM EDT

                @machspeeddemon,

                Actually this sort of thing pertains directly to American TV weathermen. The NWS three-day forecast in terms of chance of precipitation and form of precipitation is extremely good. At five days it's not so good and at seven days it is lucky if they get the day of the week right.

                But despite the fact that the NWS very accurately forecasts the chance of precipitation and its form very accurately, local TV weathermen consistently exaggerate the precipitation chance and will always predict snow over rain regardless of the temperature. This is because meterologists believe that the public is more tolerant of predicted rain/snow that doesn't come than it is of surprise rain/snow and they want to err on the side of public perception instead of maccuracy. So, as a result of the public's love of finding someone to blame for nature, the taxpayer pays for accurate forecasting that is then misrepresented to them by local TV weathermen.

                • 3 votes
                #3.5 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:56 PM EDT

                People like this judge and those who are defending him have no understanding for the fact that science is a process. Getting angry because "science" doesn't have all the answers (as if "science" is a great big monolithic person) is ridiculous. Science will never have all the answers. On the other hand science is always in the process of gathering and testing more answers than it had yesterday. That's the nature of science. If you make what these guys did illegal then you're making science illegal.

                The science of earthquake prediction is still in its infancy, at best it is a toddler still in the very early process of getting and testing answers about how this works.

                Arresting these scientists for failing to predict an earthquake is like arresting a toddler for failing to stop an armed robbery. At best this judgment is the action of a certified ignoramous.

                At worst it is a criminal act itself and the judge who did it is the one who should be in prison for official oppression. This is the sort of thing Stalin or Mao Tse Tung would've done.

                It is also a good way to eliminate all scientific progress in your country, when you start imprisoning scientists for not knowing all the answers. You're telling them not to ever become scientists in the first place. Because they will never know all the answers. Therefore by this definition of the law, it is illegal to even be a scientist in the first place.

                • 1 vote
                #3.6 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:02 PM EDT
                Reply

                well that means here in the USA the meteorologist should be tried for not being able to predict the weather..only in Italy...idiots

                • 6 votes
                Reply#4 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:29 AM EDT

                Does this mean Al Roker can now be held accountable?

                • 5 votes
                Reply#5 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:54 AM EDT

                Not much talk about faulty construction is there?

                • 12 votes
                Reply#6 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:01 AM EDT

                Nah, it's easier to blame someone else. We can't investigate the government and trade unions. Let's blame the scientists for not herding thoses cats quick enough. Next thing, the Italians will be wondering why no one is going into the geologic sciences anymore. By the way officer, it's raining on my golf outing. Go round up the usual meterologists for a firing squad.......

                • 10 votes
                #6.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:15 AM EDT

                Some of those buildings have stood for 600 years. That's up to code in my book.

                • 9 votes
                #6.2 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:35 AM EDT

                The picture at the top of the article, with the cars afloat in a sea of rubble, seems to disagree with you Mario.

                • 3 votes
                #6.3 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:23 PM EDT

                Mario 69;

                So I guess that means that the inhabitants should be held accountable to that 600 year old code also, not the scientist that most likely don’t and wouldn’t live there!

                • 1 vote
                #6.4 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:38 PM EDT

                Today's construction codes could not build for even fifty years.

                These were built and lasted for 600 !

                • 8 votes
                #6.5 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:38 PM EDT

                Mario 69;

                Your not referring to say, California's or Japans codes are you?

                  #6.6 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:52 PM EDT

                  Unreinforced Masonry will stand for 600 years, until it meets up with ground shaking and gravity takes over.

                  Minoans built pretty sturdy, grandios structures, all it took was earthquake and a tsunami to wipe their empire off the face of the earth.

                  All the Leaning Tower of Pisa needs is a good tremor and it will be history as well.

                  • 4 votes
                  #6.7 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:40 PM EDT

                  mario you might want to rethink that amount of years. the place has been flattened or severely damaged on the years 1315,1349,1452,1461,1472,1501,1646,1703,1786,1958, not counting being sacked by the french twice in 1799 and other assorted sieges over the centuries. i'd be willing to bet only the original roman structures are still standing from 600 years ago

                  • 4 votes
                  #6.8 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:50 PM EDT

                  Sean - The tsunami hit Japan not Italy.

                  MG17 - Why would the French put this town in a sack? :)

                    #6.9 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:00 PM EDT

                    You've never had take out Italian?

                    • 1 vote
                    #6.10 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:57 PM EDT

                    Mr. Willikers -

                    Do your take out Italians in a French Sack?

                      #6.11 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:42 PM EDT
                      Reply

                      Soon USGS scientists will be in danger of lynch mobs for failure to predict the INTENSITY of the upcoming 9+ quake on the San Andreas. The USGS continues to spout lies that the maximum intensity is around 7.8 for the San Andreas and that's way too low. Especially considering recent evidence shows that Wrightwood is 130+ years over due and Fort Tejon over 80 years overdue. So the stresses built up and 'locked' are far higher than an average quake. Get ready for the big one as that's exactly what it's going to be as over 600 miles of the fault shift at once from south of the Salton Sea to north of San Francisco.

                      http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/02/110210122941.htm

                      http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100820145303.htm

                      http://www.earthmagazine.org/article/sumatran-strike-slip-earthquakes-challenge-seismologists

                      http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/120719141808.htm

                      • 3 votes
                      Reply#7 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:19 AM EDT

                      It's a strike/slip fault, you will have to move north into Weed country to get the big one (subduction zone there).

                      • 1 vote
                      #7.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:42 PM EDT

                      and everything east of San Andreas will slide of into the Atlantic Ocean.

                        #7.2 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:22 PM EDT
                        Reply

                        The Italians might just be "acting out" on account of their economic troubles.

                        • 3 votes
                        Reply#8 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:30 AM EDT

                        Didn't an Italian court just rule that cell phones cause cancer, based entirely on a single case of a benign tumor? All this despite the fact that no causal link has ever been established. They have now opened the door to lawsuits of mobile manufacturers that don't actually have to prove a link between someone's illness and their phone. All that matters is they are sick and they have a phone!

                        Then let's not forget the circus that was the Amanda Knox trial!

                        And now they are suing geologists for not predicting an earthquake!? What they should be doing is suing the government for not instituting better building codes - but no, the government wants to deflect the public's criticism so they bring up charges on a few scientists.

                        Italian courts are @!$%#ing insane. It seems the judges rule in favor of whatever the popular outrage is for that day without regard for evidence, facts, or process.

                        • 15 votes
                        Reply#9 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:39 AM EDT

                        Ok, so lets say the scientist decided to go the other way....."Everybody run!! Pack your bags, get out, gogogo!"

                        And then nothing happens. They would then be on trial for inciteing mass panic and causing stress and fear.

                        The point being , if thats the mentality of the this towns judicial system, those scientists were screwed no matter what.

                        • 13 votes
                        Reply#10 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:45 AM EDT

                        Valcano warning, landslide warning, flood warnings, chance of a meterorite maybe an earthquake should be said everyday so they can cover their as— this world of holding accountable holds all except the ones that should be

                        • 6 votes
                        #10.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:42 PM EDT
                        Reply

                        Leave it to the Italian court system to try and hold scientists accountable for predicting earthquakes, since nobody else on the planet has been able to predict them reliably. The Italians seem to have a burr under their saddle (or a bug up their butt) about prosecuting people for 'crimes' nobody can tie them to. They also seem to be really creative about concocting 'sex game gone wrong' scenarios to use against those who find themselves charged with crimes no person could possibly commit. Earthquake prediction is still decades, if not centuries away, but the banty rooster Italian court thinks it can force technology into existence by finding scientists guilty. Sounds like Benito Musolini all over again.

                        • 9 votes
                        Reply#11 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:03 AM EDT

                        Wasn't it also the Italians who convicted mechanics for a plane crash a few years ago?

                        If I lived in Italy I'd be afraid to have a job.

                        • 6 votes
                        Reply#12 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:18 AM EDT

                        Another good reason to avoid going to Italy.

                        • 8 votes
                        Reply#13 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:19 AM EDT

                        Also, the food? Not as good as you'd think.

                        • 1 vote
                        #13.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:44 PM EDT
                        Reply

                        What would Italy have done if they did predict a major quake? Move? I don't get it.

                        • 5 votes
                        Reply#14 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:26 AM EDT

                        Well this is the home turf of the people who had a centuries-long Grand Inquisition.

                        • 3 votes
                        Reply#15 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:08 AM EDT

                        Are the commission members being sued for failure to predict or for issuing statements that (incorrectly) assured people that there was little to worry about? That is a difference that might be the basis for the lawsuit.

                        Do the media have this correct? Do the media know how to make such a distinction?

                        Do we care?

                        We should.

                        • 1 vote
                        Reply#16 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:11 AM EDT

                        So when are we going to start suing the people who work in drive-thrus for contributing to the obesity caused by fast food, by giving the fast food to people that are already obese. They didn't give sufficient warning that fast food can lead to obesity and possibly result in a fatality from a heart attack or heart disease. Such ridiculous charges.

                        • 3 votes
                        Reply#17 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:21 AM EDT

                        Good! It's about time we hold scientists responsible for hurricanes, lightning strikes, destructive meteorites, and other so-called "natural" disasters. I mean, go back to the time of Noah. What did scientists do to prevent the flood that killed all but two members of every species on earth -- even brown recluse spiders?

                        • 3 votes
                        Reply#18 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:22 AM EDT

                        The old testament reliably predicted the flood in Noah's time. Few listened.

                        • 1 vote
                        #18.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:40 AM EDT

                        The old testament was published prior to the flood?? And just where do you get your facts?

                        • 4 votes
                        #18.2 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:42 PM EDT

                        Just read the old testment for content, and WikiLeaks.

                          #18.3 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:24 PM EDT
                          Reply

                          I think this whole prosecution of the scientists thing is ridiculous. Earthquake prediction is in its infancy. How many time have there been earthquake swarms that DO NOT end with a major shock? Many, for sure. Sometimes, the small tremors do indicate a larger earthquake is on the way, but they don't always. To prosecute these scientists will serve to dampen further efforts to bring the advances of science to the general public. Granted, the advances are minimal in some cases, but I believe everyone concerned tried to do what they thought was right. I see, in the future, that no one will want to "stick their neck out" and put out any information, either way. I certainly wouldn't blame them.

                          When bad things happen, some folks look for someone to blame. Sometimes, bad things happen, period! No one is to blame, they just happen.

                          • 5 votes
                          Reply#19 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:01 PM EDT

                          It's only a little more ridiculous than the REPUBLIC IAN Voter Fraud and Gerrymandering maps for this election cycle.

                          • 1 vote
                          #19.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:07 PM EDT

                          If someone said that caused earthquakes I'm sure you'd believe them.

                            #19.2 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:07 PM EDT
                            Reply

                            Note to self: Don't ever become a scientist in Italy!

                            • 2 votes
                            Reply#20 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:12 PM EDT

                            Galileo Galilei found leniency in an Italian court. He lived.

                              #20.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:26 PM EDT
                              Reply

                              I'm surprised they didn't sue "God" or the church for allowing it to happen. Probably just as credible.

                              • 4 votes
                              Reply#21 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:13 PM EDT

                              Sure, aren't these things always called "Acts of God?" The Italian court should subpoena God and get His testimony.

                              • 5 votes
                              #21.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:56 PM EDT

                              Force Majeure is the proper term. Acts of Dog trump all.

                              • 1 vote
                              #21.2 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:46 PM EDT

                              His testimony is on record and admissible.

                                #21.3 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:27 PM EDT

                                The Italian court should subpoena God and get His testimony.

                                Just as soon as it gets back from its 2000 year or so vacation.

                                  #21.4 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:30 PM EDT

                                  The bibles have been admissible in court as recently as ten years ago and as old as 3500 years ago. Still valid in court.

                                    #21.5 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:46 PM EDT
                                    Reply
                                    Comment author avatarJeannie Glaspyvia Facebook

                                    This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever read. There is no way of predicting an earthquake. If these scientists had said oh yeah we believe there will be a major earthquake would the buildings still fall down, yes, would the people leave their homes and go somewhere safe, no.

                                    • 3 votes
                                    Reply#22 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:29 PM EDT

                                    If it were truly a case of not foreseeing the unforeseeable, there would be no case against the scientists. But the fact is, they had no basis on which to say that those tremors were NOT the precursor of a larger quake, yet they deliberately said "there's no need for alarm", just like the nuclear regulators before Fukushima. When you actually assemble to discuss a surge in tremors, and you have no idea, which they obviously didn't, you can't claim with your scientific credentials to say "there's no cause for alarm", when you don't know either way. They either said it out of habit, formed by scientists who think those without PhDs are idiots, can't handle any ambiguity and need to be told to stop worrying and get back to digging ditches, or else there was some vested interest that bought the verdict. Either way, they DO bear blame.

                                    • 3 votes
                                    Reply#23 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:30 PM EDT

                                    They said there was nothing in the data to indicate immediate alarm. There was nothing to indicate immediate alarm. Then, unlike the countless other times nothing happened, something happened. If I tell you your odds of winning the lotto are low, so you don't play, but then the numbers you would have chosen win, I still was correct in analyzing your risk of winning as low.

                                    • 1 vote
                                    #23.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:49 PM EDT
                                    Reply

                                    This is BS, you don't want to scare the residents when you have totally no idea when the quake will strike. If you say in the near future, there will be a quake here, do whatever you want to do, people, people will panic and the whole place will just sink into chaos. Nobody, can predict quake, not one.

                                    • 3 votes
                                    Reply#24 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:30 PM EDT

                                    Wow, if we start putting people in jail for being scientifically ignorant, all Southern Baptists and Right Wing Nut Conservatives better start practicing how not to drop the soap in the showers.

                                    • 5 votes
                                    Reply#25 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:32 PM EDT

                                    Certainly you don't support Scientology?

                                      #25.1 - Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:28 PM EDT
                                      Reply
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