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Subscribe to RSSDifficult situations remain for President Obama in Syria, Afghanistan, Iran and Israel. NBC's Richard Engel discusses what Obama needs to do to overcome these challenges in his second term.
News analysis
Updated at 5:41 a.m. ET on Nov. 7: Barack Obama faces no shortage of foreign challenges as he enters his second term as commander in chief.
While it is impossible to predict what may come, here’s a look at 10 issues likely to emerge as priorities for his administration:
1. Possible Afghan collapse/civil war
The Afghan government has been propped up by American and NATO troops and money but has failed in its basic functions of establishing national trust, security and unity. Afghanistan could devolve into a civil war as U.S. troops draw down in 2014, with old rivalries re-emerging between the north and south/southeast.
Watch the drama of election night quickly unfold in a three minutes montage of sights and sounds.
Once again, the country could be torn by an ethnic war between the Pashtuns and the now-defunct Northern Alliance, a legion of Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara militias. The risk is that Afghan security forces will then split along ethnic lines and President Hamid Karzai, whom critics accuse of being an uncooperative U.S. ally, could become an even greater liability.
On a recent visit to Afghanistan I spoke to some Tajik villagers outside Kabul, who promised me they would start fighting once American troops leave. They said they would battle a group of pro-Taliban Pashtun villagers nearby. When asked if Karzai's troops would be able to stop a clash, one tribal elder told me, "The corrupt government in Kabul? It can't do anything."
The dangers of an Afghan collapse are many: Afghan deaths, a loss of American prestige, a loss of NATO prestige, a moral blow to U.S. troops and veterans, a Taliban resurgence, huge setbacks for women, and greater power for Pakistan and Pakistani extremists.
Read more Afghanistan coverage from NBCNews.com
Aref Karimi / AFP - Getty Images
More than ten years after the beginning of the war, Afghanistan faces external pressure to reform as well as ongoing internal conflicts.
2. Possible Iran implosion or explosion
Iran, which is being pushed to a breaking point by U.S.-led currency and banking sanctions, won't simply sit back and watch its economy crumble. Persia is 7,000 years old and will fight to survive.
The increasingly isolated country is likely to act in one of three ways: accommodation and negotiation, weaponization, or diversion.
Faced with the crippling sanctions, Iran could simply decide it is paying too high a cost to pursue its nuclear program and could opt for negotiations and reconciliation with the United States and other members of the international community. This is clearly the preferred option of American leaders.
The other possibilities are more problematic. Iran could rush toward a nuclear capability, deciding the best way to survive is to obtain weapons so horrific that no one would dare attack. A nuclear program has arguably worked as a deterrent for North Korea and other states -- would Moammar Gadhafi have been deposed and summarily killed if Libya had had nuclear weapons? Iranians might not think so.
The Iranian economy is in free fall, with its currency, the rial hitting a record low. NBC's Ali Arouzi reports.
Source: Back-channel talks but no US-Iran deal on one-to-one nuclear meeting
A less risky approach would be to provoke a diversionary conflict through Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shiites in Bahrain, the Kurdistan Workers Party in Syria and Turkey, its position in the Strait of Hormuz -- or it could try to inflame anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment.
Iran also could try to attack the American economy through sabotage or cyber warfare. Cornered as it is, Iran could become the aggressor instead of -- as it sees itself -- the passive victim.
At schools, in shops, and on the streets of big cities and small towns, daily life plays out in Iran.
How Iran acts is up to its choosing but it's hard to see how it won't act -- for better or worse -- as the sanctions continue to bite.
Read more Iran coverage from NBCNews.com
3. Rise of the Muslim Brotherhood
The Arab Spring has empowered the Muslim Brotherhood across the Middle East and beyond. It and other ideologically similar and allied groups run the governments of Egypt, Tunisia and Gaza.
In Syria, the Brotherhood has a strong presence among the rebels and in Yemen, it runs half the government and much of the state's day-to-day functions. In Jordan and Morocco, the Brotherhood is the main opposition to the countries' ruling royal families. In leaderless Libya, it is an increasingly organized voice. And in Algeria, the movement's officials warn that their revolution is coming.
The Muslim Brotherhood's influence in the Middle East is likely to evolve in one of two ways. Military regimes that have been pushed aside could fight back and launch counter-Islamic revolutions, clawing back the Brotherhood's gains and keeping it tied up in internal political battles. This is already starting to happen in Egypt.
Analysis: Egypt's big turn under the Muslim Brotherhood
Conversely, the Muslim Brotherhood could consolidate its gains and dominate electoral politics in the Middle East for the next several years.
For the United States, the rise of the Brotherhood is not in itself a major challenge. Most of its leaders say they want good relations and economic ties with Washington. The problem, however, is Israel. The Brotherhood is fundamentally anti-Israel, and Washington is fundamentally pro-Israel.
While analysts can debate which presidential candidate is closer to Israel, both have expressed their commitment to it and its security -- just as every U.S. president has done.
But the Muslim Brotherhood will not make the same commitments to Israel's integrity and security. While campaigning to win the election in Egypt, the Brotherhood held rallies featuring speakers who called for the restoration of the Islamic Caliphate with Jerusalem as its capital.
In an attempt to convey what he sees as a threat to Israel's existence, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used a cartoon to illustrate how close he says Iran is to developing a nuclear weapon. In a speech at the United Nations General Assembly he asked the world to help stop them. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.
The Brotherhood does not understand why Washington chooses to befriend one small country at the expense of relations with millions of Arabs and over a billion Muslims. Washington rejects having to make this choice.
This rift could become a showdown and devolve into violence. The timing depends on American policy and outside provocations that can be either by design -- "peace" flotillas to Gaza, Hamas rockets, an Israeli assault on Gaza -- or by accident, such as bigoted and dumb Internet movies.
4. Cyber threat
The United States has spent a decade fighting terrorists with some notable and many debatable successes. But bombs aren't the only kind of threat. In fact, a successful cyber attack could cause national and international chaos far exceeding a bombing in a major U.S. city.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently warned about a possible cyber Pearl Harbor. Many military officials and analysts I know fully agree with him.
Panetta: Cyber intruders have already infiltrated US systems
5. Israeli strike on Iran
Israel may attack Iran's nuclear program if it believes sanctions are failing. The strike would likely delay but not stop the program, experts say. For the time being, Israel has decided to wait and see what impact the international sanctions have.
If Iran chooses a quick rush to make a bomb, Israel will most likely change course and opt for a military solution. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made that point abundantly clear when he drew a red line at the United Nations and held up a picture of a bomb.
Read more Israel coverage from NBCNews.com
6. Revival of al-Qaida/Ansar al-Sharia
Al-Qaida's leaders have been killed and hunted, but the group hasn't gone away. Many al-Qaida factions have re-branded themselves under a new name: Ansar al-Sharia (partisans of Islamic law). Some of the militants also are finding new comfortable homes in the post-Arab Spring Middle East, blending into Salafist (Sunni fundamentalist) movements.
7. Rift with Pakistan
Pakistan and the United States have been locked in an uncomfortable marriage since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, and arguably long before that.
US, Pakistan should 'divorce,' ex-ambassador to Washington says
Critics accuse Pakistan of taking American counter-terrorism money and military support, while at the same time supporting terrorist groups.
Muhammed Muheisen / AP
Images of daily life, political pursuits, religious rites and deadly violence.
If the United States cuts off Pakistan -- which may happen as Washington becomes less reliant on Pakistani supply routes into Afghanistan -- Islamabad could become more belligerent, which would cause relations to deteriorate further. The withdrawal from Afghanistan will change the costly status quo that has existed with Pakistan since 9/11, and that change is unlikely to go smoothly.
Read more Pakistan coverage from NBCNews.com
8. Mexico and the growing war on drugs
According to some estimates, Mexico has become the most dangerous country in the world. Around 50,000 people have been killed in the country's drug wars. It is unclear if Mexico's President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto will be able to contain the violence, which has spread south to Central America and is showing signs of leaking north into the United States.
Read more Mexico coverage from NBCNews.com
Mexico's drug war is also part of a drug culture with roots in music, movies and even religion
9. US 'pivot' to Asia/China slowdown
In 2011, China overtook Japan to become the world's second-largest economy after the United States. The Obama administration has acknowledged China's growing military and political power, and has pledged to "pivot" or deploy more than half of the U.S.' naval assets to the Asia-Pacific region by the end of the decade. This, some argue, has contributed to souring relations between the two powers.
Adding to the troubles, China isn't cheap anymore and Chinese workers are no longer as willing to accept poor conditions and little pay. Strikes are increasingly common. Removing dissent from Chinese Internet sites is a full-time job for government censors. Growth rates remain high, but the cost of living and labor demands are going up.
Factories are already moving out of China to cheaper labor markets in Indonesia and Bangladesh. If China's economic growth slows for a prolonged period, the world will be dramatically impacted. The country's economic expansion has driven up oil prices and has made parts of the Middle East, Russia and Brazil exceptionally rich. Could labor unrest threaten the ruling Communist Party's grip? Any move from this giant creates a huge wake that will quickly wash onto American shores.
Read more China coverage on NBC's Behind The Wall
10. United States: Drifting?
For a decade, the United States has made fighting terrorism its main foreign policy goal. This is by definition a reactionary policy and is limited in focus -- without a global vision or sense of destiny.
In contrast, American rivals appear to have grand plans in place. Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, seems intent on regaining its Soviet and Tsarist glory. Turkey is flexing its muscles regionally and is re-establishing some of its Ottoman legacy and prominence. China is looking to consolidate its hold on swathes of Asia and beyond.
Full coverage: NBCNews.com's The World is Watching series
But what does the United States want to do? What is our goal? It is impossible to be influential if we don't know where we are going -- and any malaise would be damaging to the national interest. World powers must move to survive. Drifting is sinking.
More election coverage from NBCNews.com:
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- Democrats retain control of Senate with series of hard-fought wins
- One big winner in Tuesday's vote: health reform
- Romney's English cousin sad he lost, sort of
- Rape remarks sink two Republican Senate hopefuls
- In costliest-ever Senate race, Warren beats Brown for Mass. seat
- Maine's Harley-riding King vowed to 'shake up' D.C.
- Republicans easily maintain control of House
- Colorado, Washington approve recreational marijuana use
- Wisconsin's Baldwin becomes 1st openly gay senator
- Pence in as governor of Indiana; Hassan wins in N.H.
- World welcomes Obama's 2nd term - but many challenges loom
- Majority of voters see American on wrong track
- Top 10 foreign policy issues facing Obama
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Leave a Comment:
Any candidate that supports israel's pre-emptive strike intention will not get my vote!
Would daylight between our nations provide reassurance that a strike is not needed?
This Prez still is blaming Bush and everyone else except himself after four years of his own failed promises and policies. No progress and moving backwards means no reelection.
Romney/Ryan 2012
IMO--The debate last nite was not about foreign affairs and problems, it kept switching back to our economy and other topics that were already discussed.
Whichever one of these two lovely choices we have to end up picking, I hope they wake up and smell the world problems one day while sipping their coffee.
And start guiding the usa towards a more counseling and friendly country towards many of the foreign countries now having problems of governmental change and control of. Without putting a lot of boots on the ground over there.
The United States of America has many interior and exterior problems, lets start afresh by taking care of our own problems first, interior and boarder areas.Move more towards SA as our friend and trading partner.
IMO
The only foreign policy issue you have is to mind your own F@@ business. The war will return to your doorstep due to your ignorance and stupidity. Well enough said we all know that Americans are the stupidest nation on Earth. They just don't learn...
The only thing that should be on any American's mind is, that Karzai, should not be allowed into this country, after Afghanistan collapses. He and his whole family, has sacked his country, and the tax payers monies. Let him go to Sudan or Mali. The billions and thousands of our soldiers lives, have been wasted, in a stone age society, which resist to enter the 21st century, and prefer to continue with their lives, the same way they did, a thousand years ago. They do not deserve any respect, when they don't even respect themselves. They are savages. Let them exterminate themselves with their puny wars. We have to recognize, that there are places in the world, that do not want change, and prefer to live the way they do. Human rights, is a foreign invention to them. Let us respect them in what they choose. Let us also, require, from Islam, to respect, our way of life. And their faithfull, that are here, if they do not, let us help them, go home, to wherever they came from.
It is an interesting analysis. I think that the problems in the Middle East and North Africa go beyond internal country or nation problems and involve the much larger issue of Sunni verses Shiite. While both support the destruction of Israel, it is only one of the very, very few things they do agree upon. And we may be forced to make a choice. A nuclear Iran cannot happen under any circumstances. Emphasized and emphasized daily if necessary. Want to rattle Pakistan’s foundations? Spend a lot of time talking to India. The Chinese are a very independent bunch and prefer to fix their own problems. So, let them. They may need their hand slapped, but let the Japanese do that. The last thing they need or want is some self-absorbed meddlesome western advise. All this is academic. The best foreign policy we have is getting our own house in order and presenting a united front, which we haven’t done for the last 4 years.
This a bogus argument to get taxpayers to pay for separate Internet for the fed.gov. (They want to be entirely covert so they are answerable to no one. That's a dictatorship.) If the web is a problem for the fed.gov, then get off the Internet. Problem solved. The world functions fine without MSFT.
This is not a problem. Maybe even a blessing.
The rest of the first six can be solved by massive and relentless bombing. Focus on making glass, not friends.
Side with India. Let the bombs fall where they may. Sometimes the Nagasaki route to peace is the only the path. The belligerent should expect to be bullied down. Way down.
Legalization will immediately undermine the power of drug lords; the killing will stop. Stop sending money which goes into the pockets of Mexican and other foreign government officials with little effect on the effort. How dumb are you people in Washington? Fighting drugs is a lost cause; "control" is the only workable option. It is also the most human.
The will of people (in this case users) is greater than government; it always will be. No amount of crack down can/will change that. Governments are form, people are substance. Substance always prevails over form. In this country it is the law also. Reject the fed.gov as it is.
Mexico needs to do more itself to rout crime within and without its government. Their government is our government if the citizens don't take Washington from the bureaucrats.
This is not a problem. It certainly isn't our problem. So it isn't a foreign policy problem. China will be around long after the Democrooks and Republicons spend the US into oblivion.
Look around so you can remember life as it was. The Washington charlatans have sold us out... Dollars are worthless; even some oil producers won't take them anymore--it is the fault of the two major mafia parties. The 1960's were the US's golden years; in 1971 Trickie Dickie Nixon, three time felon and Republicon president, took the US off the gold standard. Look at what has happened to the nation since. But don't solely honor the Republicons with that misdeed, the Democrooks were right there applauding the move. These are the first enemies of the republic. These are the first enemies of the republic. There are laws about traitors.
If the author means focused on over-spending rather than world responsibility, that is correct. Otherwise, not. D.C. doesn't solve problems, it just throws money (taxpayer money) at them because our leaders are too busy lining their own pockets to do their job and and not smart enough to solve a problem. That is why the problems re-occur when the funding runs out. (How asinine. And they want re-election? Give me a break.) The average Washington politician spends about 40 minutes a week on the job--on the floor. (Just like your job, right?) Their work product is useless. Why support them? "Throw the bums out!"
The fed.gov needs wake up and smell the roses. They are incompetent. This won't change until everyone there now is gone. Neither party has/had a leader of substance. Neither party has a leader of substance. Neither party has a leader of substance.
Did I mention, neither party has a leader of substance?
Getting out of policing the world is necessary--note China's stance. The presidential focus needs to be domestic. It's clear who the miscreants are and where they are. Focus them. Give them a choice: Our way or the highway. Building the nation is more important than the rest of the world. Building the US is superior in import to any other directive; it is mandate #1.
In short, the next president better focus on the United States. If agitated by the Middle East scourge, send bombs (huge bombs) not diplomats. The Nagasaki route to peace works.
What is missing as a problem is #11. Europe. Any kind of a "union" is a communist threat in disguise. (History bears this out.) The EU is going that route and also ahead of the US in spending itself into oblivion. When their banks fail, that will drag the US with them. Then the faux religion zealots from the Middle East will be on us in droves. The president must work to undo the EU, disenfranchise the Czars in Brussels who are not answerable to the European people, and withdraw any and all financial support. The Euro-countries are going to have sink or swim on their own, individually. The president should also ask for the billions given to be returned. The Marshall plan is another failed policy from Washington.
Giving taxpayer money for anything not domestic is always a failure and should be unconstitutional. When money leaves the country, it's a lowering of taxpayer lifestyle and wealth. (Wake up, Stupidos!) Citizens, not government, are the United States.
Okay. Now, we can discuss the next president's second day in office.... ©2012 BlueNGold™ Americans first, fed.gov last.
The dangers of an Afghan collapse are many: Afghan deaths, a loss of American prestige, a loss of NATO prestige, a moral blow to U.S. troops and veterans, a Taliban resurgence, huge setbacks for women, and greater power for Pakistan and Pakistani extremists.
The absolute corrupt inept idiots in washington were told by the american people 8 years ago that this is what would happen, just like in viet nam, but the corrupt war mongering crooks wanted to keep this war going so their rich friends could get even richer off of this war.
As for iran, let israel take care of that situation, after all, it is in their backyard, NOT THE BACKYARD OF THE USA, so keep your war mongering noses out of it congress.
As for the muslim brotherhood in egypt, we are continuing to give egypt billions of dollars every year and for what, they hate us, they want to destroy us, but the very stupid war mongering congress keeps on paying them this money so the war mongering profiteers in the usa can continue to make millions of dollars off of this mess.
Another place we need to stop giving money to and get out of there and stay out of their business.
CLEAN UP THE USA FOR A CHANGE. Fix the infrastructure.
As for the impending cyber attack against the usa, if the very stupid, war mongering, corrupt congress had of been doing what it was supposed to be doing, this threat wouldn't be so imminent.
But our corrupt congress would rather spend billions war mongering in almost every country in the middle east instead of putting money into this defense effort and taking care of the usa for a change.
Fix the infrastructure, stop giving our money away to countries that want to destroy us, and that includes china.