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Subscribe to RSSDifficult situations remain for President Obama in Syria, Afghanistan, Iran and Israel. NBC's Richard Engel discusses what Obama needs to do to overcome these challenges in his second term.
News analysis
Updated at 5:41 a.m. ET on Nov. 7: Barack Obama faces no shortage of foreign challenges as he enters his second term as commander in chief.
While it is impossible to predict what may come, here’s a look at 10 issues likely to emerge as priorities for his administration:
1. Possible Afghan collapse/civil war
The Afghan government has been propped up by American and NATO troops and money but has failed in its basic functions of establishing national trust, security and unity. Afghanistan could devolve into a civil war as U.S. troops draw down in 2014, with old rivalries re-emerging between the north and south/southeast.
Watch the drama of election night quickly unfold in a three minutes montage of sights and sounds.
Once again, the country could be torn by an ethnic war between the Pashtuns and the now-defunct Northern Alliance, a legion of Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara militias. The risk is that Afghan security forces will then split along ethnic lines and President Hamid Karzai, whom critics accuse of being an uncooperative U.S. ally, could become an even greater liability.
On a recent visit to Afghanistan I spoke to some Tajik villagers outside Kabul, who promised me they would start fighting once American troops leave. They said they would battle a group of pro-Taliban Pashtun villagers nearby. When asked if Karzai's troops would be able to stop a clash, one tribal elder told me, "The corrupt government in Kabul? It can't do anything."
The dangers of an Afghan collapse are many: Afghan deaths, a loss of American prestige, a loss of NATO prestige, a moral blow to U.S. troops and veterans, a Taliban resurgence, huge setbacks for women, and greater power for Pakistan and Pakistani extremists.
Read more Afghanistan coverage from NBCNews.com
Aref Karimi / AFP - Getty Images
More than ten years after the beginning of the war, Afghanistan faces external pressure to reform as well as ongoing internal conflicts.
2. Possible Iran implosion or explosion
Iran, which is being pushed to a breaking point by U.S.-led currency and banking sanctions, won't simply sit back and watch its economy crumble. Persia is 7,000 years old and will fight to survive.
The increasingly isolated country is likely to act in one of three ways: accommodation and negotiation, weaponization, or diversion.
Faced with the crippling sanctions, Iran could simply decide it is paying too high a cost to pursue its nuclear program and could opt for negotiations and reconciliation with the United States and other members of the international community. This is clearly the preferred option of American leaders.
The other possibilities are more problematic. Iran could rush toward a nuclear capability, deciding the best way to survive is to obtain weapons so horrific that no one would dare attack. A nuclear program has arguably worked as a deterrent for North Korea and other states -- would Moammar Gadhafi have been deposed and summarily killed if Libya had had nuclear weapons? Iranians might not think so.
The Iranian economy is in free fall, with its currency, the rial hitting a record low. NBC's Ali Arouzi reports.
Source: Back-channel talks but no US-Iran deal on one-to-one nuclear meeting
A less risky approach would be to provoke a diversionary conflict through Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shiites in Bahrain, the Kurdistan Workers Party in Syria and Turkey, its position in the Strait of Hormuz -- or it could try to inflame anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment.
Iran also could try to attack the American economy through sabotage or cyber warfare. Cornered as it is, Iran could become the aggressor instead of -- as it sees itself -- the passive victim.
At schools, in shops, and on the streets of big cities and small towns, daily life plays out in Iran.
How Iran acts is up to its choosing but it's hard to see how it won't act -- for better or worse -- as the sanctions continue to bite.
Read more Iran coverage from NBCNews.com
3. Rise of the Muslim Brotherhood
The Arab Spring has empowered the Muslim Brotherhood across the Middle East and beyond. It and other ideologically similar and allied groups run the governments of Egypt, Tunisia and Gaza.
In Syria, the Brotherhood has a strong presence among the rebels and in Yemen, it runs half the government and much of the state's day-to-day functions. In Jordan and Morocco, the Brotherhood is the main opposition to the countries' ruling royal families. In leaderless Libya, it is an increasingly organized voice. And in Algeria, the movement's officials warn that their revolution is coming.
The Muslim Brotherhood's influence in the Middle East is likely to evolve in one of two ways. Military regimes that have been pushed aside could fight back and launch counter-Islamic revolutions, clawing back the Brotherhood's gains and keeping it tied up in internal political battles. This is already starting to happen in Egypt.
Analysis: Egypt's big turn under the Muslim Brotherhood
Conversely, the Muslim Brotherhood could consolidate its gains and dominate electoral politics in the Middle East for the next several years.
For the United States, the rise of the Brotherhood is not in itself a major challenge. Most of its leaders say they want good relations and economic ties with Washington. The problem, however, is Israel. The Brotherhood is fundamentally anti-Israel, and Washington is fundamentally pro-Israel.
While analysts can debate which presidential candidate is closer to Israel, both have expressed their commitment to it and its security -- just as every U.S. president has done.
But the Muslim Brotherhood will not make the same commitments to Israel's integrity and security. While campaigning to win the election in Egypt, the Brotherhood held rallies featuring speakers who called for the restoration of the Islamic Caliphate with Jerusalem as its capital.
In an attempt to convey what he sees as a threat to Israel's existence, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used a cartoon to illustrate how close he says Iran is to developing a nuclear weapon. In a speech at the United Nations General Assembly he asked the world to help stop them. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.
The Brotherhood does not understand why Washington chooses to befriend one small country at the expense of relations with millions of Arabs and over a billion Muslims. Washington rejects having to make this choice.
This rift could become a showdown and devolve into violence. The timing depends on American policy and outside provocations that can be either by design -- "peace" flotillas to Gaza, Hamas rockets, an Israeli assault on Gaza -- or by accident, such as bigoted and dumb Internet movies.
4. Cyber threat
The United States has spent a decade fighting terrorists with some notable and many debatable successes. But bombs aren't the only kind of threat. In fact, a successful cyber attack could cause national and international chaos far exceeding a bombing in a major U.S. city.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently warned about a possible cyber Pearl Harbor. Many military officials and analysts I know fully agree with him.
Panetta: Cyber intruders have already infiltrated US systems
5. Israeli strike on Iran
Israel may attack Iran's nuclear program if it believes sanctions are failing. The strike would likely delay but not stop the program, experts say. For the time being, Israel has decided to wait and see what impact the international sanctions have.
If Iran chooses a quick rush to make a bomb, Israel will most likely change course and opt for a military solution. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made that point abundantly clear when he drew a red line at the United Nations and held up a picture of a bomb.
Read more Israel coverage from NBCNews.com
6. Revival of al-Qaida/Ansar al-Sharia
Al-Qaida's leaders have been killed and hunted, but the group hasn't gone away. Many al-Qaida factions have re-branded themselves under a new name: Ansar al-Sharia (partisans of Islamic law). Some of the militants also are finding new comfortable homes in the post-Arab Spring Middle East, blending into Salafist (Sunni fundamentalist) movements.
7. Rift with Pakistan
Pakistan and the United States have been locked in an uncomfortable marriage since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, and arguably long before that.
US, Pakistan should 'divorce,' ex-ambassador to Washington says
Critics accuse Pakistan of taking American counter-terrorism money and military support, while at the same time supporting terrorist groups.
Muhammed Muheisen / AP
Images of daily life, political pursuits, religious rites and deadly violence.
If the United States cuts off Pakistan -- which may happen as Washington becomes less reliant on Pakistani supply routes into Afghanistan -- Islamabad could become more belligerent, which would cause relations to deteriorate further. The withdrawal from Afghanistan will change the costly status quo that has existed with Pakistan since 9/11, and that change is unlikely to go smoothly.
Read more Pakistan coverage from NBCNews.com
8. Mexico and the growing war on drugs
According to some estimates, Mexico has become the most dangerous country in the world. Around 50,000 people have been killed in the country's drug wars. It is unclear if Mexico's President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto will be able to contain the violence, which has spread south to Central America and is showing signs of leaking north into the United States.
Read more Mexico coverage from NBCNews.com
Mexico's drug war is also part of a drug culture with roots in music, movies and even religion
9. US 'pivot' to Asia/China slowdown
In 2011, China overtook Japan to become the world's second-largest economy after the United States. The Obama administration has acknowledged China's growing military and political power, and has pledged to "pivot" or deploy more than half of the U.S.' naval assets to the Asia-Pacific region by the end of the decade. This, some argue, has contributed to souring relations between the two powers.
Adding to the troubles, China isn't cheap anymore and Chinese workers are no longer as willing to accept poor conditions and little pay. Strikes are increasingly common. Removing dissent from Chinese Internet sites is a full-time job for government censors. Growth rates remain high, but the cost of living and labor demands are going up.
Factories are already moving out of China to cheaper labor markets in Indonesia and Bangladesh. If China's economic growth slows for a prolonged period, the world will be dramatically impacted. The country's economic expansion has driven up oil prices and has made parts of the Middle East, Russia and Brazil exceptionally rich. Could labor unrest threaten the ruling Communist Party's grip? Any move from this giant creates a huge wake that will quickly wash onto American shores.
Read more China coverage on NBC's Behind The Wall
10. United States: Drifting?
For a decade, the United States has made fighting terrorism its main foreign policy goal. This is by definition a reactionary policy and is limited in focus -- without a global vision or sense of destiny.
In contrast, American rivals appear to have grand plans in place. Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, seems intent on regaining its Soviet and Tsarist glory. Turkey is flexing its muscles regionally and is re-establishing some of its Ottoman legacy and prominence. China is looking to consolidate its hold on swathes of Asia and beyond.
Full coverage: NBCNews.com's The World is Watching series
But what does the United States want to do? What is our goal? It is impossible to be influential if we don't know where we are going -- and any malaise would be damaging to the national interest. World powers must move to survive. Drifting is sinking.
More election coverage from NBCNews.com:
- Victorious Obama 'more determined' in face of challenges
- Now that he's won, six splitting headaches waiting for Obama
- Democrats retain control of Senate with series of hard-fought wins
- One big winner in Tuesday's vote: health reform
- Romney's English cousin sad he lost, sort of
- Rape remarks sink two Republican Senate hopefuls
- In costliest-ever Senate race, Warren beats Brown for Mass. seat
- Maine's Harley-riding King vowed to 'shake up' D.C.
- Republicans easily maintain control of House
- Colorado, Washington approve recreational marijuana use
- Wisconsin's Baldwin becomes 1st openly gay senator
- Pence in as governor of Indiana; Hassan wins in N.H.
- World welcomes Obama's 2nd term - but many challenges loom
- Majority of voters see American on wrong track
- Top 10 foreign policy issues facing Obama
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Leave a Comment:
Number 9 is completely wrong. Our economy does not depend on the Chinese economy, in fact it is quite the opposite. The best thing imaginable for the United States would be for China to fail. It would give our big cooperations incentive to bring our jobs and factories back home, or at the very least stop feeding and strengthening a communist superpower. You can talk all day long about the trouble in the middle east, but at the end of the day there are only two countries that can threaten the existence of the United States and that is China and Russia and both are heavily armed and getting stronger every day. We may feel short term effects if we stopped trading with China but in the long run and big picture it would strengthen us more than ever. The Middle East is small potatoes especially if we tap our own oil reserves which has more millions of barrels than all of the OPEC countries combined. Easiest solution ever to make the US the strongest it has ever been. 1. Tap the dam oil! 2. Stop buying Chinese!
Obama has broken the U.S. out of a reactive role on the world stage. Bush overreacted to 2 dozen organized criminals who got lucky on 9/11. What Bush did not understand is that great nations do not put aside their agendas and dance to the fiddle of terrorists. Obama ended the War on Terrorism, and treats dangerous international criminals to a Hellfire missile up their robes. Meanwhile, Obama will shift spending to investment in basic science, engineering and education, the engine of long-term U.S. wellbeing. Does anybody remember the Hart-Rudman conclusions of 2000...they said that math and science education would more pivotal to national security than the military. They were right. Obama gets it. Romney does not...he and his advisors are stuck in a Bush timewarp. They are trapped in a past ways of thinking that leads nowhere but the USA being manipulated into policeman-of-the-world, banker-of the-world, and 3rd rate in science and technology.
1) Going to happen, let ig go
2) Sactions and let rest of world deal with it
3) Its all about the econmoy no tourist $$$, no economy, waiting for the econmics impact to start and the resulting fall out. Its all about the economy, no matter whos in power
4) Funnel DoD dollars into this area
5) Peace is best but let Isael do what they feel is necessary
6) Sanctions and let the rest of the world dela with it
7) Cut off aide
8) Legalize drugs
9) Economic downturn going to happen, curious to see what the male versus female population issues will results will be from their child birth laws
10) Focus on our country and trade agreements for goods that we need to function successfully
Where is the discussion of the Fast & Furious crimes that Obwan and Holder perpetrated on the Mexican government and population? 2000 guns illegally allowed into Mexico and NO ONE is discussing it or the peopel killed with the weapons?
If Obwan knew of it, why didn't he stop it unless he approved it? If he didn't know about it then why is he trying to claim "executive privilege"? If he didn't know about it then he can't claim executive privilege, and if he did know about it why is he claiming he knew nothing about it?
He has a selective memory!
Plausible Deniablity and Protection. Wouldn't want you to think he hired someone who couldn't do their job, or worse yet haveing to pay the Mexican Government for killing a bunch of innocent people. Given his track record I would say Holder shoud have been fired earlier.
There is a lot more at stake than some program that Bush started and it rolled over to Obama. Get a grip! Romney is a loose cannon on Foriegn Policy. He's a draft Dodger that believes in the Draft, FOR YOU. Romney keeps harping over and aver about the Ecnomy and his plan that will fail. But he knows like Hitler did that is you keep repeating and repeating and reapeating a LIE often enough people will believe it. You haven't forgotten the Bush brow beating you you 3 times a day 7 days a week about WMD in Iraq already? I would have thought that you would be smart enough to smell the crap by this time.
You can just sense that the ignorant loons are out in mass by their absurdly fervent pitches as the campaigns draw to a close. Blaming the President for the countries woes while blindly embracing a do-nothing, filibustering, and vile Republican House leadership and their suddenly boot-licking Senatorial cohorts is beyond laughable. Keep dreaming your self-inflicted nightmare you fools, keep dreaming. Doubling down on repeating the Bush era policies tenfold is masochism of the worst kind.
Hey America, want to be the richest most powerful country for the next hundred years? It's easy as 1,2,3!
1. Energy- Tap our own oil reserves, implement a monorail system, and make Hybrids mandatory- effectively ending all dependence on OPEC nations.
2. Stop buying Made in China. Chinese economy will fail, and factories and jobs will start to come home- effectively increasing our exports and domestic production and reclaiming the strongest economy in the world.
3. End all Foreign aid. They hate us anyway. This will save hundreds of billions of dollars and they won't use the money and weapons to arm and fund terrorsit groups.
IT REALLY IS THIS SIMPLE.
An interesting interjection by some posting is the lack of recognition that the national debt is maybe the single greatest threat to American security overseas. The perception of being "handcuffed" by our debt and the inordinate influence borrowing and financial activities have on the US via the Internet may be crippling. Recent revelations about foreign hackers (most likely state sponsored, if not directly operated by foreign governments) practicing with financial institutions here in the US should be a warning sign that we are in imminent danger of a large scale cyber-warfare attack. Just a thought, maybe we need to do something about our debt before it becomes a huge stone tied around our necks waiting for some foreign entity to kick into deep water.
THE REASON WE DON'T NEED DEMOCRATS--
Nothing in this world gets better as it gets bigger. The bigger an organization becomes, the less efficient, less responsive, less fair, less compassionate and less functional it becomes. Government attracts mediocre, low IQ, power hungry, narrow minded, paper pushing, rules oriented, dimwits who think they can run your life better than yourself. This applies across the board from the highest levels in Washington D.C. to your local school board. There is no problem that another law, statute, program, or initiative, funded by your tax dollars or future generations, that a politician or government pencil pusher doesn’t think they can’t solve. They are just too dense to anticipate the unintended consequences of their arrogant belief in their own wisdom.
H.L. Menken
Well put!!!
Paul Ryan has been in government all his life.
The Republicans on TV are behaving like a Romney/Ryan administration would be immune from terrorism and mayhem around the world. They're are failing to say what they would have done differently to Obama in the past 4 years. Truth be told, we were isolated from the world with regards to Iran as Bush's policies were 'We're the cowboys and no one tells us what to do'. Obama got many world leaders to agree to the sanctions on Iran; there were very little or none prior to 2008. My brother lives in Iran and he said since 2009, things have gotten very bad there since Obama took office because of the sanctions. The price of food is very very high and the price of gas is also going up for the first time on over 15 years. The sanctions are working in Iran so I think it's a bit disingenuous to say that Obama has done a poor job there.
The sanctions on Iran are probably the only thing Romney would have done the same. Afghanistan and Iraq would have seen increases in troops until the job was actually finished until of pulling out early and leaving it to fall to pieces worse than before as Obama has chosen to do. There would have been much more negotiations between the US, Israel, and the Palestinians to quell the violence and try to come to a resolution. China would not have been allowed to trade dirty for so long and would have had to answer for its currency manipulation and money would never be borrowed from China. Also Romney would not be as sympathetic and apologetic towards terrorists and anti-American groups. In the history of the United States there has not been a bigger failure on foreign policy or economic strategy than Obama. He has jeopardized our freedom on both the military and the economy simultaneously. It's almost as if he planned to sabotage the United States all along.... hmmmmm.
Just as expected, the fervent insanity from the extreme right is reaching its peak due to self-inflicted anxiety attacks.
I can hear the President's thoughts now;
'Okay! Now! Which Country can my friends in Banking and in the Military Industrial Complex make the most money? And how the hell am I going to tell these stupid people I need to take more of their money?'
Stupid? We're not stupid! We might qualify as cowards, but each and every one of us knows we've been taken. People of Middle Eastern, North African, and European Nations are revolting and rioting at this moment against oppressive and corrupt governments... our response to these same criminal immoral activities... nothing!
Stop buying Chinese, Quit going to Wal-mart. Who in their right mind would put Chinese tires on their Car? Not me! I have no love for Romney, in fact the hairs on back of my neck go up when he talks about the Economy and Foriegn Matters. Bad Omen. Just being honest about my feelings. Remember the last time we put a Governor in as President with no Senatorial or other experience. I guess people thought he would something from his Dad, that was a wash. Romney has no Washington experience either. ONE big lesson the US has learned here is not to pick and stand for a side over there, You can't trust your so called friends. Don't stand to close to your friends overthere, When crap flies you get hit. As for the Economy Romney/Ryan Plan does add up to me. they say the math is complicated. It is simple there is not enough money there to support $8 Trill in Tax Cuts. That's HALF our Debt. DUH! Now you think about that for a minute. As for Ambassador Stevens all the facts aren't in yet until they start writing up their reports. If what I have gathered so far Tripoli sent a Cable warning of a possible danger. SO WHY didn't they follow it up with a Phone call. There were 4 people they could have talked to, Mr Stevens and 3 agents. Triploi to me at this point in time dropped the Ball. Another what I consider weak link here is the Director of National intelligence, James R. Clapper Jr. But it 's your fate you will answer to very soon.
Obama/Biden.
Not possible. Globalization has made it easier for companies around the globe to take advantage of cheap Chinese labor to maximize their profits. Unless governments come together and make it easier for companies to do business at home and cheaper to manufacture their goods, you won't see many jobs come back home.
We elected a President that has never had a job unless you consider selling dope through college as a job.
At least 8 out of 10 will be a reality.
JR, "He who trades with us is our friend"??? What about China? What about a balanced trade policy? You buy our goods and we buy yours.
Am not sure Mitt knows much about anything outside U.S. - except where his off-shore accounts are.
I guess that it is OK for Nancy Pelosi to have off-shore accounts. If you have a 401K, you likely do also.
If elected Romney will be able to the entire world from his window. At that moment he realize that winning the election was not such a wonderful deal. He will not be able outsource the job. Mitt,Be careful what you wish for!
Spoken like a true Obama supporter! Don't forget who is on Obama's Economic Team! How much was it G E paid in taxes. How much did G E make in profits last year? How many jobs did Emelt start or move out of this Country?
It is hard to believe that the American people would turn foreign policy over to the Republican party that talked us into war with Iraq. ( Bringing up 9/11 makes no sense as the terrorists were not from Iraq.) The GOP highlighted the evidence for WMD and did not disclose evidence against it. Yes, I know Saddam was a sh****** but the reason the American people were given, primarily, to go to war were WMDs. Two thirds of the American public do not believe the war with thousands of deaths and many more thousands of wounded, physically and mentally, was "worth it". It also cost billions of dollars that were put on a credit card and not funded properly. IF you want to see a mistake like that again down the road, then, by all means, vote GOP.
Surprisingly timely article detailing 10 ADDITIONAL reasons to NOT vote for obummer.
More than half of these problems go away if we concentrate on a new energy policy. We're past the 50% mark in oil used in less than 100 years. We've been "talking" about it since the 70's. New energy sources must be the top priority. If this country can get "off" oil, the whole game changes.
Joseph Goebbels once said...“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” The Obama administration keeps saying that they told us the attack on the Libyan ambassador was a Terrorist" attack.....Hmmmm.....I thought they said it was due to a mob of people that were upset about some anti-Muslim video? Well, I guess if they keep repeating the lie long enough people will start believing it. How sad is that!
Hummmm I wonder what that drone they sent over to film it saw!!!!
Those ten issues wouldn't keep Obama up at night, he'd just go golfing or leave for a Vegas trip. Because he cares deeply.
WATCH OUT FOR OCTOBER SURPRISES
Halloween brings scary and funny costumes to the attention of the children as they arrive on our porches
to trick or treat. We stock up on candy and treats so tricks will be taken
elsewhere in the neighborhood. Halloween brings surprises to us all and breaks
the mundane routine of our daily jobs.
In the midst of political campaigns we are often surprised during this fall month of color and splendor,
October. Whether a slow release of American Diplomats from Iran confinement in
a prior election, a desire today for continued nuclear talks with the U.S., or
the sudden decrease in gasoline prices in America, all just miraculously occurring
before the next decision on electing a president, I love October and the many
surprises it entails.
Yet personally I study carefully the October revelations in terms of their value at the voting booths
across this land. Obviously, I want to know the benefit of the surprise to an
individual candidate for in reality political campaigns are seeking to have
their clients elected. I tend to discount the veracity of most surprises in October
that awkwardly propose off the wall suggestions. Is that October revelation,
that shocking headline merely a vote getter?
As an example, the Iranians leadership today wants to eliminate the State of Israel from the face of the
earth according to words of many of their officials. They also seem to be
masters if not experts of delay when negotiating. Why would I trust their
intentions for a moment? I would be greatly disappointed if any leader did.
Enjoy October but please
study with great care all political surprises- chances are they are just phony.
Alan G Phillips, Sr
Mexico
North Korea
Greece
Spain
Africa
Pakistan
Syria
Libya
Egypt
Russia
China
Haiti
Cuba
Venezuela
Ireland
Spain
Honduras
Italy
Things are going to sh!t everywhere and Obama goes golfing.
But what does the United States want to do? What is our goal? It is impossible to be influential if we don't know where we are going -<~~~~~ Another reason we need to get rid of Obama and hire a leader.
England withdrew their ambassadors from Libya a month before 9-11 II.
Al Qaida flags were being flown over government buildings in Benghazi before the attacks.
Why weren't Marines guarding the Embassy.
Hillary was too busy apologizing to Pakistan to notice.
We knew the pollsters couldn't hide the facts any longer as we near the election with the undecideds going with Romney. The exact same thing happened in the final weeks of the Carter landslide. Gallup has 52-45 Romney. That is a wider margin than any lead Obama had in the same poll, even right after the convention when the left was popping the champagne. LOL
How many Ulcers and nervous breakdowns has this election caused?
S T R E S S is tweaking us HARD.