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Gianluigi Guercia / AFP - Getty Images
Egyptian army tanks are deployed outside the presidential palace in Cairo on Thursday.
News analysis
Editor's note: This story includes a correction.
Updated at 7:25 a.m. ET: CAIRO — Many hailed the emergence of civilian rule in Egypt when then recently elected Islamist President Mohammed Morsi ordered the country’s armed forces back to their barracks in August, after they had led the county for close to a year and a half.
But within months, the same military was functioning as the country's auxiliary police force, ensuring the safety and integrity of the upcoming constitutional referendum, and protecting the presidency — both physically by guarding the palace and politically by acting as an intermediary to diffuse political tensions between Islamists and the opposition.
Meanwhile, the newly drafted and disputed constitution that will be up for a vote on Saturday changes little about the military's role in the state. In fact, it preserves the ability of the military to try civilians in military courts. It also maintains the secretive budget of the armed forces, which eats up a sizable chunk of the state’s coffers.
So, as Egypt lurches through a crisis pitting the country's president and his Islamist supporters against opposition forces, observers are working to figure out what exactly the country’s powerful military will do next.
Egyptian leader told: 'Fear God... postpone the referendum'
The dispute over a controversial decree giving Morsi near absolute powers reached a crescendo on Dec. 11, when protesters opposing the president's decision circled the presidential palace. Morsi supporters, mainly from the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist parties, took to the streets in counter protests. They, too headed to the palace, only this time to confront the president’s opponents. What ensued were deadly clashes that left at least eight people dead and more than 700 injured.
NBC's Ayman Mohyeldin is outside the presidential palace in Cairo where hundreds of thousands are protesting what they say is an unjust constitution. They want to delay a vote on the current draft of the constitution now scheduled for December 15.
Amid the turmoil and after standing on the sidelines, the powerful armed forces weighed in and issued their first political statement since Morsi was elected on June 24.
ANALYSIS: Egypt is rapidly approaching its own 'cliff'
“Anything other than [dialogue] will force us into a dark tunnel with disastrous consequences, something which we won't allow to happen,” the statement read. The call for dialogue may have struck some as a surprise because it came from an institution that served as the backbone of the country's authoritarian regimes for six decades.
Then late Sunday night, Morsi issued a decree granting the country's military law enforcement powers, essentially giving the armed forces the legal authority to act as the country's police force. The military was allowed to arrest and detain civilians in the run up to the key constitutional referendum starting Saturday. It was also tasked with securing the thousands of polling stations around the country, meaning its job was to secure the integrity and safety of the voting process and the voters.
The move has drawn sharp criticism from Human Rights Watch, an international organization, which said the military's emergence as a law enforcement authority raises serious human rights concerns.
Egypt army gets temporary power to arrest civilians ahead of referendum
Islamist forces, however, remain skeptical of the military. After all, for decades it was the country's senior internal security leadership in conjunction with the military that hunted down Islamist leaders, jailing them and torturing them under strongman Hosni Mubarak and his predecessors.
Opponents of Egypt President Morsi say he's betraying the revolution, but his supporters say he wants to guarantee human rights with a controversial referendum on a new constitution. NBC's John Ray went onto the streets of Cairo to hear from both sides of the deepening divide.
What Egypt's military wants
The military, which had recoiled back to its bases after it led the country for nearly 18 months following the revolution that toppled Mubarak, remains skeptical, too.
"They have not been neutral. While appearing to be sympathetic to the protesters' demands, they remain suspicious of popular mobilization's ability to induce change that goes beyond their control," said Joshua Stacher, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center and author of "Adaptable Autocrats."
Google+ Hangout with NBC News' Ayman Mohyeldin
The military is also not standing on the sidelines and will likely remain the last arbiter of Egypt’s politics. Any appearance to the contrary is a result of the armed forces being "intentionally opaque," Stacher said.
"I don't believe that they have a plan worked out. Rather, they are waiting to see how the situation evolves before deciding what is the best course of action," he added.
Marco Longari / AFP - Getty Images
Egyptian soldiers stand in line as anti-Morsi protesters stand on top of a barricade erected by the army to protect the Presidential Palace in Cairo on Tuesday.
The best course of action may just be revealing itself. The proposed constitution also stipulates that future defense ministers must be officers.
But the real test of power, Stacher and others argue, will be whether the military retains control over its vast economic empire and secretive budget under a new constitution.
External link: English translation of Egypt's draft constitution
"The military prefers to remain behind the curtain influencing events," he said. "They also have the constitution that they want in terms of securing their interests. They would prefer that the constitution pass, they stay formally out of politics, and the protesters go home."
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Leave a Comment:
i feel the military is better than a police force at this point. way too much at stake, and dont be suprised if it comes out, there was a surge in Isalamist population to get votes from this point on to pass. Egypt is on the edge of a very dark pat. i hope Moronsi see's this before making his rule as a king, vs a elected official serving the peoples best intrest, not his own.
Morsi not only better address woman and non Muslim citizens of Egypt, but has to have a term limit as well. And he better not corrupt the poles on re-election day(s). Otherwise the people who aren't Muslim and many woman who are will rebel again. Personally, I think it is dangerous for one religion to rule Egypt, because that region needs religious freedom and tolerance more than anything else save possibly woman's rights. So far we haven't seen those exactly be priorities in Muslim run countries. I hope that changes with Egypt.
As for the Military, they have a critical role to play. If Morsi gains their support by sucking up to them like many dictators including Mubarak have done, then it will create the very same situation that the people rebelled against Mubarak for in the first place. So if Morsi doesn't want to aggravate things further, he can't do that. So does the military side with him anyways for stability? Do they side with the opposition? Or do they sit back and play "referee" of sorts like they did in the revolution. Or do they decide to reinstall Mubarak's remnants again. A lot of things could happen, but the outcome rests largely on what the military of Egypt decides to do or not do. Personally, I hope the county isn't ruled by religion much longer. But we'll have to see.
I read part of their constitution and it still holds Sharia as the basis of its laws...as to equality, it says there shall be equality and respect for all regardliess of faith....there I am skeptical...but the people in Egypt have to deciede. As for the military, that is a large ? mark....as part of the constitution says the military shall be headed by a civilian...there again ? mark and what role does he have, is it still based on Sharia law ? So it is time to wait and see
The leaders of Egypt have ignored the lessons of history - Overemphasized/over-funded military budgets, have always been the doom of great nations!
I wonder if the leadership in Washington has learned that lesson?? President Dwight D. Eisenhower while in office, warned Congress about the "Military Industrial Complex" weakening our nation! Seems to me that his warning wasn't heeded, because a major part of the U.S. economy is being driven by military hardware and technology development - This of course, at the expense of domestic spending, which is robbing the common American of life, liberty & the pursuit of happiness!! The big-shot bankers definitely have their hands in the works, and there's no doubt, in real time, what Eisenhower warned against has come to fruition!!
That was more of a throw away line by Eisenhower that Progressives use just as incorrectly as Shakespeare's quote about lawyer.
More nonsense from the Middle-East and the countries that follow Islam.
I would like to see, the USA lock up our borders and clean up our own house. We have plenty to do here with our own internal problems. First remove the log, from our own eye, before we try to remove the splinter, from another countries eye.
Well said..
It's time for the UN to actually stand up for what it claims to stand for (WORLD PEACE) and criminalize the practice of Sharia Law
Attatuk saved Turkey from demise. He was a military leader and a staunch secularist. He had deep contempt for the Imams who wanted to wrest power during the decling years of the Ottoman Empire. Secular government is intelligent, sober government. It's best not to have leaders who are drunk on alchohol or religion.
I urge the military leaders to appoint the highly educated officers to intervene on behalf of Egypt's future. The rise of the Islamic brotherhood is a populist movement with rotten roots that will collapse Egypts future and frustrate its intellectual progressive thinkers.
7th centurry sharia laws and Imam power will definetely not solve Egypt's 21st century problems.
The only protection for the sober minded from the mob mentality is the military.
Remember the religious mob at Alexandria who burned the library in around 410, (at the Serapium), then murdered Hypatia the last mathematician? Under the populist power grab of Cyril they exiled the prefect Orestes, the secular leader, and Egypt has been in decline ever since. It's time to break the shackles of theocratic rule and re-emerge as...Egypt. The military is the only hope.
And still obama continues to hand them billions of borrowed American tax dollars to prop up their government.
Is there anyone left in the US, except obama, that supports handing out money we don't have to fanatical muslims?
the irony is that the "billions" going to egypt are primarily for the military...who are a force of stability and opposes islamic extremists.. The military knows which side their bread is buttered on, and knows if egypt goes off the deep end the money from washington ends..and so do their perks. A lot of that money comes back to american to buy weapons and helps the economy here anyway.
I support giving out money to groups that oppose islamic extremists.
Hmmm... Interesting take vermontguy. I hope you are indeed right about their military seeing things that way. It would actually be aid not wasted. I mean it makes sense, but you can never really tell for sure.
so far the egyptian military has been an ally of ours, keeping out of isreal and working against extremists. There is a reason that they have gotten the most foreign aid over the years (after isreal). So far they look like they still won't let the islamacists have free reign in egypt...but of course, we'll have to see.
but where else would the military get their funding (and power) if not the US? They aren't going to deal with iran, who is both shiaa and is having to fight their own economic problems. Saudi arabia? they are fighting extemists themselves and won't support egypt if they get radical.
Have to give Obama credit I think as President of China its important for him to harm America as much as possible. That's why he helped turn Egypt from a friendly dictatorship to a fascist/Islamic enemy state; gave Libya to Al-Queda and is now all set to give Syria to Al-Queda while providing more weaponry to Turkey, which is on the path to Islamism under the criminal Erdogan. Win, win in his job as President of China. Wait. What do you mean Obama is President of America? He is on our side????? Be serious. No one would vote for this cretin in America, unless they hated a successful America and.....oh oh.
lol, you don't have a clue. Libya isn't run by al quada, and obama can't give syria to them.
And what should obama have done in egypt? sent in the troops to keep mubarek in power? he was thrown under the bus by his own military as a sop to the people...but the military still has the power. duh.
only a cretin woudln't understand this..oh oh. :)
If Morsi does what all the dictators like Mubarak do and wins the military over by sucking up to them, the opposition would have no chance. Unfortunately, it would also create the same kind of problem that sparked the rebellion against Mubarak in the first place except now the country would be strictly a Muslim dictatorship. I sure hope that doesn't happen, although you could argue it may already have to a certain degree. I still remain hopeful that the military in Egypt can see through Morsi's power grab and that the country is not continued to be run by a religious group. Religious freedom and tolerance is what that region needs most, along with woman's rights. Under Muslim law, those things tend not to be priorities. Let me be clear that I am not against Muslims or the religion itself. And this is coming from a Jew (or me). I just think that the mentality in that region allows murderers, rapists, and terrorist to hide behind the Muslim faith, as well as persecute all who are not seen as "Muslim" in the eyes of said government. So, I see it as dangerous to have that faith lead a country over there. We've seen the results.
The military needs to kick out morsi and take control of the country again until someone with half a brain realizes that the brotherhood(who odumbo greeted with open arms) is a terrorist organization. Egypt needs to be led by thinkers and people who want to see it progress not go back in time where women are nothing more than cattle and other religions as well as the same religion but different sects are not to be put down.
But President Morsi won just over 50% of the popular vote and feels he has a mandate.
"odumbo (lol, what are you, 12 years old?) greeted with open arms"? what, exactly, does that mean? Its a nice fox right wing talking point..but what EXACTLY did he do wrong, and what EXACTLY should he have done?
This pretty much epitomizes the problem with right wingers and their hatred for Obama. There is absolutely nothing Obama could or should have done any differently. They love the idea of democracy around the world, but when it produces results that do not benefit US interests, they are the first to demand US intervention. They cozy up to people who either are or will become dictators, and then have the nerve to act surprised when the public seeks to throw out those dictators, which can then lead to dictators of a different kind (Iran, Egypt).
Plus, no matter who the U.S. president was, any US involvement in Egypt would likely have either had minimal impact, or backfired. Obama was right to be cautious because there was no telling which way things would go, and it would be disastrous for the protesters if the US supported them and they failed anyway (Iran in 2009). Once Mubarack was clearly on his way out, Obama was correct to take a stand support the protesters then.
Can anyone offer a different policy that would have had better results?
The reality is that we don't have much influence in the middle east, other than use of our military (or in the case of egypt, paying off their military). Absent "sending in the troops", our ability, regardless of president, to influence things beyond forcibly removing dictators is pretty small.
So this constant whining about how the middle east isn't turning out like we wanted (a nice, pretty, western-style democracy devoid of islamic law) is just laughable. "stuff happens" whether we want it to or not, no matter who the president is.
bush jr, for example, promoted the cause of democracy in the middle east (and at a high level, rightfully so, since what else should america, the land of democracy and freedom, promote?) It was widely supported when bush sent in the troops to replace saddam with democracy...but even there where you would expect to have as much influence as we possible could, it isn't turning out quite like we wanted. Expecting countries like syria or egypt to turn out like we want is a nice theory, but nothing to whine about when it doesn't come true.
the middle east is a complex situation, with very few clear outcomes, and whining about it and hating obama for it is just plain silly...unless you can describe exactly what should have been done, and when...without using hindsight of course.
Is that really a useful security tactic? Having the soldiers stand there and hold hands?
No, they just do that because they really like each other.
Since human rights and poll watchers aren't invited, basically, to the vote, then I believe the military will keep an eye on the voters. Should stuff happen, I think the military will kick Morsi in the butt, maybe not out, but inform him that the vote is dishonest and will, could have capitalized that will, be held again.
Don't even think the military doesn't keep eyes on the Muslim Brotherhood and other organizations with an eye to keeping them from getting too big for their pants. If Morsi thinks a little over 50% of the vote gives him the mandate that President Obama has, he's wrong. The military will take over and redo presidential voting. This time without Morsi or any person from an extremeist organization as a candidate.
The Egyptian military is the power, not the president, until it feels that the country is stabalized.