Expert: Islamists' Algeria raid could inspire copycat attacks

DIGITALGLOBE/AFP/Getty Images

This satellite image provide by DigitalGlobe from Oct. 8, 2012 shows the In Amenas gas field in Algeria, which is jointly operated by BP, Norway's Statoil and Algeria's Sonatrach.

The audacious assault by Islamist militants on a gas plant in Algeria that led to the capture of scores of hostages could spark copycat attacks, a terrorism expert warned Friday.

Terrorism analyst Evan Kohlmann, an NBC News contributor who has worked for the FBI, said that other groups would almost certainly be watching closely as the militant fighters led by Mokhtar bel Mokhtar seized the giant facility near In Amenas — and might be inspired.


"(Militant groups) are all vying for attention — for fighters, for financing. They see this, they see the attention it gets," said Kohlmann, who has written about the enigmatic bel Mokhtar in the past.

Bel Mokhtar has been called "The Uncatchable" by French intelligence, along with "Mr. Marlboro" due to his reputed cigarette-smuggling empire, and "a jihadist straight out of central casting" by the British press.

"This group has carried out similar attacks to this in the past. They've certainly taken hostages. They've launched attacks against gas fields and mines,"  Kohlmann said.

'Nightmarish scenario'
But what made the In Amenas raid different was the size of the plant and the number of hostages.

"It's the scale here that we're talking about that's astounding. Taking a group like this all at once… It's really… It's a nightmarish scenario, to be honest," Kohlmann said.

A number of hostages have reportedly managed to escape from the natural gas facility in Algeria where hostages from 10 countries have now been held for three days, while some were killed and injured during a raid by the Algerian military and still more remain unaccounted for. NBC's Michelle Kosinski reports.

"Within the past year, he's given several different interviews and video recordings in which he's been very clear that one of the primary targets for his group are those who are coming to Algeria, Mali, Mauritania and are 'stealing our resources.'"

Kohlmann said an attack on a French uranium mine in Niger in 2010 has been linked to bel Mokhtar’s group. In that case, workers were also kidnapped and four are still being held to this day.

Thursday, the operators of that and another Niger uranium mine, Areva, said they were tightening security after tons of its contaminated metal used in the extraction of uranium were found in a public junkyard.

Bel Mokhtar is a veteran of the Afghanistan war against the Soviets, a conflict in which he reportedly lost his eye, and he was also once in charge of al-Qaida’s Saharan arm.

Algerian TV via Reuters TV

Hostages freed from a gas facility in Algeria, where Islamist militants were holding them, are seen embracing in pictures broadcast by Algerian TV.

But he now runs his own gang, analysts say, and there are suspicions that he is now more interested in money than jihad.

"He fought in Afghanistan. He fought with al-Qaida in Algeria for years. This guy has been fighting in Algeria since 1991. Yet at the same time he's much more of a desert mafioso than anything else," Kohlmann said.

"He espouses jihadi aims. But he's very well-known for smuggling weapons, cigarettes, narcotics and of course these hostage-taking incidents where he's taken a lot of flak, including from within the jihadi community itself," he added.

"Some of them have said, ‘look, you talk about taking people hostage in order to get our prisoners released from jails, but then all you do is take ransom money and you let these people go.' … So, some of them have distanced themselves from him because of his attention and profit-seeking behavior, really," Kohlmann added.

He said he suspected bel Mokhtar was trying "to ingratiate himself to some of these other new jihadi movements in West Africa." 

"And what greater way than to do something like this where not only does he get a lot of media attention, but potentially he makes millions of dollars on ransom payments? And that's what these guys are really motivated by — money," Kohlman said.

Related:

Expert: Islamists' Algeria raid could inspire copycat attacks
Details emerge in militant takeover, rescue operation at Algeria gas field
Violence in Mali, Algeria raises fresh fear of radical Islam
US military cargo planes to help French in Mali
Algerian militant dubbed 'Mr Marlboro' raked in millions from kidnappings
Violence in Mali, Algeria raises fresh fear of radical Islam

Discuss this post

Wow. Somebody realizes that terrorists are inspired by other terrorists. By that criterion, I am an expert on terrorism.

  • 4 votes
Reply#1 - Fri Jan 18, 2013 1:21 PM EST

I think that it is time that Western Nations get out of these countries and stop stealing resources from the people of these nations.

Not only are they stealing the resources but, they are taking the wealth right from up from under the citizens noses and then will kill them if they try to take their resources back.

Ask yourself this question???

What in the heck is BP doing over there in this country anyway.
SEEKING WEALTH IS THE ANSWER!!!!

We know this model that western governments have very well nowadays.
Invade countries that cannot defend themselves from the power of Western nations throw a puppet political figure into power and if anyone from that nation retaliates, label them as terrorists.

That's what's happening in Israel, that's what's happening in Syria, and apparently that is what's happening in Mali!!!!

Peel Layer

  • 2 votes
#1.2 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 10:07 AM EST

One thing is for sure: Islamists' copycat attacks have been going on for sometime.

Islamic religious madness has proved to be worst of all madness.

At the same time, most of Islamic extremists are cowards too.

Just watch Syrian and the weepings, chest beatings, "where is Amerika", crying babies and so on by Sunni Syrian rebels (supported by al Qaida, MB, Salaffi and other Sunni Islamic haters and killers) and dances by the oil rich Sunni rulers and Turkey.

If we kill at least kill ten extremist Muslims for killing one non-Muslim, they will start running.

If we kill 100 of them, they will give a break for a decade.

If we kill 1000, then they will start "love" and "peace" dances like Sufis.

Through love and peace dances they conquered areas like Mali, some Afghan and Paki areas.

  • 3 votes
#1.3 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 10:34 AM EST

I'm all in, 1000 of them for 1 of us. Then we can be the madman.

    #1.4 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 11:03 AM EST
    Reply

    Don't worry the President and VP told us they got Osama and Al-Quiada is on the run. They just seem to hate taking action against or admitting some muslim's hate us, why does the Administration for some reason avoid dealing with terrorist threats, we should be asking and you be the judge.

    • 1 vote
    Reply#2 - Fri Jan 18, 2013 2:14 PM EST

    Yes, Charles, it's true, bin Laden's Al-Qaida is on the run.

    But Al-Qaida has many regional movements, and the disease is spreading.

    • 1 vote
    #2.1 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 5:10 PM EST

    See Charles... there's this little thing about respecting the sovereignty of other nations. Unless there is a direct threat to the United States we can't just barge into other countries and take over. This has nothing to do with what the President might or might not want to do! Bin Laden was a special case. We can't just stomp all over the rights of other countries anytime we want. I'm sure the US is gathering the intel and given a chance will act within the rules of International Law.

    • 1 vote
    #2.2 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 9:02 PM EST
    Reply

    Possibly, but it could inspire a serious amount of bomb dropping on terrorists as well.

    • 4 votes
    Reply#3 - Fri Jan 18, 2013 2:26 PM EST

    Copycats will continue this until Obama gets his head out of his azz. In other words, never.

      Reply#4 - Fri Jan 18, 2013 2:34 PM EST

      Arab Spring coming along nicely. Al Qaeda on the run. Right Barry? Maybe if we give them weapons we can then track them. Worked well in Fast and Furious.

      • 4 votes
      Reply#5 - Fri Jan 18, 2013 2:55 PM EST

      Another overstatement of the obvious for our members a little slow on the take up.

        Reply#6 - Fri Jan 18, 2013 3:23 PM EST

        blamo

        Worked as well as invading Iraq, then trying to figure out a reason for doing it-right. Just maybe everyone needs to step back, take a deep breath and clear their head, before more mistakes are made.

        • 3 votes
        Reply#7 - Fri Jan 18, 2013 3:29 PM EST

        After stepping back, taking the deep breath, & clearing the head, what then. Bet you don't have a clue.

        But then that's no disappointment to me, because I don't understand what it is you can & or could do.

        9/11/2001 could have also sparked 'Copy-Cat' events, that's like so obvious, that it's really now just a 'Cliche', & a throwaway one at that.

        As the 'Walrus said', " it's time to speak of other things."

        I second that!!!!!

        • 1 vote
        #7.1 - Fri Jan 18, 2013 8:52 PM EST
        Reply

        If the mainstream media persists in reporting every detail of this raid, certainly the terrorists won't even need to draw up their own plans. They can just print the article and use it as their guide to copycat attacks.

        • 1 vote
        Reply#8 - Fri Jan 18, 2013 4:52 PM EST

        Islam will win, we are not intelegent people, the last I heard was 12th world wide, I hate to say it but just wait.

          Reply#9 - Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:42 PM EST

          Mokhtar Bel Makhtar should be tracked down and killed--but the President will not take action aganist the Radical Islams--Mokhtar has ties to Al-Qaida--but the United States is frozen in its tracks--20,000,000 illegals in the United States--many have been convicted of rape and murder--Al-Qaida is strong in America--and the President is a Muslim

            Reply#10 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 4:29 AM EST

            As a matter of fact it seems to me that the swift and lethal response of the Algerian military should slow down any terrorist/criminals in Algeria at least. It's all the massive publicity and hand wringing by those who think that simply being American should protect someone from all harm that encourages these jihadists. Any Muslim country is a potential war zone and anyone, American or not, who ventures there has to accept the risk.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#11 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 10:08 AM EST

            Find cheap substitues for gas and oil.

            That will send the fountainheads of these Islamic extremists like oil rich Sunni rulers and nations like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE to desert with their camels.

            • 2 votes
            Reply#12 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 10:39 AM EST

            Right on Jonathan-too bad congress is owned by whoever buys the whore a drink.

              #12.1 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 2:14 PM EST
              Reply

              ISLAM ISLAM everywhere! What a cross we have to bear!

              This religion really is Satanic. The Non Moslem world should Not give a single visa to a moslem unless he or she converts to one of the more peaceful religions.

              • 1 vote
              Reply#13 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 10:43 AM EST

              200 percent correct. Need to do it right away.

                #13.1 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 11:50 AM EST
                Reply

                To this day, many hostage-based terrorist attacks are direct or indirect copycats of the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre.

                  Reply#14 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:15 PM EST

                  If we let the government of the nation these attacks take place in handle things, the terrorists might find our touch a lot softer than the heavy hand of the host nation. They don't want to piss off western countries and they don't want to appear weak at the same time. It also keeps our hands clean in a political sense; we cant stop a nation from storming a compound on their own soil.

                    Reply#15 - Sat Jan 19, 2013 4:17 PM EST
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