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Miraflores Palace via Reuters
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez blows a kiss from the door of an airplane before departing to Cuba at Simon Bolivar airport in Caracas on Dec. 10. Chavez flew to Cuba for cancer surgery, vowing to return quickly, but has not been seen in public since.
MIAMI -- It’s been 40 days since anyone has publicly seen or heard from Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez.
Keith Rosenn, a law professor at the University of Miami with extensive experience in Latin American legal affairs, asks what is on so many minds: Did Chavez die at some point after flying to Cuba on Dec. 10?
“It’s possible Chavez could be dead for a substantial period of time before we know he’s dead and why he died,” Rosenn said. “He’s in Cuba after all.”
Chavez, in Havana suffering from an unspecified type of cancer, has been treated repeatedly by doctors on the communist island.
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The life of Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez from his rise as a lieutenant colonel after his failed coup attempt in 1992.
The Venezuelan leader not only shares a special relationship with brothers Fidel and Raul Castro, but his socialist revolution is modeled in many ways after the Cuban system. Fidel ruled the country from the end of the Cuban revolution until he ceded power to Raul in 2006.
It’s highly unusual for Chavez to be gone from public view this long “for someone who craves attention,” Rosenn said.
Now 58, Chavez has seldom been out of the public eye since he assumed power in early 1999.
A former lieutenant colonel in the Venezuelan military, he grew up poor, only to wind up nationalizing and controlling his country’s vast treasure: oil.
Since assuming power, it’s estimated his country has pumped more than $1 trillion of oil onto the open market, while at the same time sharing his nation’s riches with like-minded leaders in Bolivia, Nicaragua, Peru and Cuba.
If Chavez is dead, his brand of socialism, so-called “Chavismo,” could live on “if the Chavistas who remain, remain united and are committed to his missions,” said Susan Kaufman Purcell, director of the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami.
But the mood could shift, she said. Chavez’s power base lies among the poor, the very people who “were lied to” in the past about Chavez’s health, Purcell added.
“People were not prepared for this because Chavez suggested he was cured of cancer when he wasn’t,” she said.
Chavez handily won re-election in October 2012 but was a no-show at his Jan. 10 inauguration.
Despite his openly anti-American rhetoric, American officials will maintain a hands-off policy on Venezuela, predicted Aimee Arias, chair of political science at Florida Atlantic University.
“The U.S. and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, but the business relationship with oil has continued pretty much in place, and barring any sort of unconstitutional change or undemocratic situation after Chavez's death, I would assume that will continue,” she said.
If Chavez is indeed dead, Arias said Chavismo would have a hard time going forward without its founder.
“The movement is named after him, after all,” she said.
More Venezuela coverage from NBC News
Vice President Nicolas Maduro, a former bus driver, is currently in charge.
Some Chavez opponents, such as recent presidential candidate Henrique Carpriles Radonski, contend that Chavez missing his own swearing-in should trigger a new election within 30 days.
But Rosenn, a constitutional lawyer, interprets the document differently.
“Article 231 says that the elected candidate is to be sworn in as president on Jan. 10, but then the last sentence says if for any unforeseen reason he can not take the oath, then he will be sworn in before the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, but it doesn’t say when,” Rosenn said.
And therein lies wiggle room for Chavez’s backers.
Despite calls for calm from both Chavistas and the opposition, it’s the threat of destabilizing violence that concerns Venezuela watchers in the U.S. most.
After all, unrest in the fourth-largest oil exporter to the United States could have a big impact on Americans.
And with Venezuela’s economy already in disarray and oil exports down by 30 percent in the past 15 years, no matter who is in charge, times ahead in that country are likely to be tough.
“If he’s dead,” Purcell said, “Chavez leaves behind a country that is in pretty bad shape.”
Follow NBC News correspondent Kerry Sanders on Twitter.
Related stories:
Venezuela's ailing Chavez unable to attend swearing-in, officials say
NBC's Kerry Sanders answers questions about Chavez re-election in Venezuela's elections
Venezuela's Hugo Chavez wins 3rd term, vows to deepen socialist revolution
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Up until a few days ago, he was hanging out with Michelle, Hillsarwe, Paylousy, and Dirty Harry, talking about socialist ideals and better ways to hide dead things. After finishing their instruction, they have all returned to pull heart strings and use the wave of happy inagural private million dollar a ticket fund raising parties to divert attention from their underlying socialist agendas. How is that?
Loser leader who's public allowed him to run things into the ground. Hmmm sounds a lot like the USA.
The only good dictator, is a dead dictator....
Check Obama's new Cabinet.
At least he will be able to meet the real El Diablo soon.
Too bad we can't all just put our collective hemispherical heads together to solve many of the world's woes. Imagine the "Americas" working together to solve energy, medical and social problems together - there would be no end to the innovations, discovery and elimination of poverty in our collective backyards. Hugo and his followers must change to be collaborative with their northern and southern neighbors. Put a Cuban, Venezuelan, Chilean, Uruguayan, American, Canadian, Mexican, etc. child in a room together and I'll bet they'll get along just fine. If they were in high school, they could probably devise a way to work together for a common goal. Make these children adults with lots of money and desire for power and you've created a monster. Let's get back to acting like children - and figure out how to get along and solve problems.
The only movement this fat-headed thug should be named after is a bowel movement.
Common Man: I bet your the type who's afraid of the dark and sleeps with one of your 300 guns under your bed, and pillow. You sound as if you don't like it here in the United States, why don't you move to Venezuela to see just how socialism works up close and personal. You dumb red necked hillbilly..
Hahaha, you are funny Lori-id10t wow he just made a little comment about Obama. Perhaps you should take your meds now and go to sleep for the night.
I like the United States just fine until some corrupt socialist comes in and tramples all over my constitutional rights. 268 guns under my pillow thank you.
I look out my window and see Hugo Chavez. I go to my grocery store or anywhere I see Hugo Chavez. They not need worry the fate of their country. It seems to me they took over the United States and now they have a new dictator king.
Welcome to Amexica my Latino friends, oh and please don't stab me.
You are so full of fecal matter. When's your next Klan meeting?
We are always looking for new members, didn't know you were so interested.
I think he got lost somewhere up Sean Penns anal area, or he is trying to remove Sean Penn from his anal area..... either way... doesn't matter much.
If he is dead THANK GOD.If we could be so blessed in this country.
Hes probably slowly dying in a palliative care unit. He would be back already if the treatment worked, and he was going to live. He has either died, or is on his way to dying. Once you are this far gone, you dont come back. Ive seen too many cancer patients. And the ones who stay in hospital, are still there because they are dying. They send you home for recovery.
If I was in the operation room with him and it was just me and him, I would pluck one of my @ss hairs and drop it in his open mouth.
venom,
Your posts are so lacking in value of any kind. You have nothing to offer in terms of ideas or intellect. You just like to offend without contributing.
While I don't like Chavez or his politics, I'm not excited to hear he might be dead. better the enemy you know rather than the enemy you don't. We need his oil and can ignore his rantings. If he is gone, his replacement may be worse than he.
Absolutely. Despite his thumbing his nose at Republicans and Bush, hehehe.. He still wasnt that bad. He could have cut the Oil off and sold it to another country. But he didnt. He was actually good for his people. They were in extreme poverty, and they are doing a lot better now that he took back their resources from Big Oil. I would have done the same thing in his shoes.
Other than some short-term disruptions while the market adjusted, it wouldn't have mattered if he had. Oil is a commodity, available from many sources. If he had sold his country's oil to someone else, they would have bought less oil from say, Kuwait, and that oil would then be available to the US. Oil cut-offs only work if the buyer can't replace the oil with other sources.
I am sure Hugo found a way to pocket some of that oil money.... There are reports that the Castro brothers both have Billions in Swiss bank accounts.
Ah, the wonders of socialism at work. Despite the oil wealth, Oil exports are down 30% because the workers can't repair the machines all the American companies brought in. Inflation is running at 26%. But even with that inflation rate the economy only grew at a 5.5% rate (which means the citizens suffered as if the economy shrank by close to 20%). And things are even worse when you look closely at the 5.5%. Most of it was due to Chavez increasing government spending by 34% to buy off the poor. To cover the deficit it created he devalued the currency (3rd time in 3 years) and accepted more loans from Chinese banks. Of the 2.4 Million barrels of oil a day being produced, 295,000 barrels now is used to keep up with payments on the debt / loans. And when 95% of your exports are oil, thats a big dent. The medical system is collapsing (hence he has to leave the country for treatment). And once he dies and the fighting for power begins, watch how it all finally goes down the drain.
I feel sorry for the people of Venezuela. He was popular among his people, and did good by them. They will be sad at his passing. And it might cause a power struggle, which could cost lives. If he is indeed gone, or going soon, his family and the people of Venezuela have my condolences.
One thing is for sure, Venezuela is better for having him. Thats why right wingers hate him so much. A socialist that succeeded, and thumbed his nose at the Republicans at the same time. I still remember the look on Bushes face.. LOL Good comedy haha.
According toe my uncle who works at the hospital in Cuba where Chavez was being treated, Chavez died a couple weeks ago. Hotel personnel were sworn to secrecy, but it's kind of hard to keep something like that under cover for long.
Since Chavez has been in the care of Cuba's superb, single payer, federal health care system, he must be fit as a fiddle and ready to rule for decades now.
Cancer isn't impressed by fancy hospitals. Once it metastizes, the best medicine in the world is unlikely to save you. It doesn't have anything to do with how the care is delivered. It has to do with the stage the cancer has reached. No medical system can save you if the cancer has spread throughout your body, single payer or private, you're still toast.
For someone who seeks to be in the limelight of his nation and the world's consciousness, forty days is an interminably long period to totally disappear. It would seem unthinkable that Hugo Chavez is still alive, or if he is, that he is not in a coma, and approaching death. Venezuela will have to seek a way forward to deal with it's own national priorities. Without a spokesperson or forward vision, the country appears likely to at best remain in paralysis, or at worst descend into chaos.
"Not possible" according to Michael Moore.
I hope for a lingering and painful death to all of the dictators and kings in the world. How else could a free person wish for ?
A free person might hope for dictators to see the error of their ways and expand government to include all of the people in a cooperative effort to build their country. Wishing death on any person is an evil wish.
He was probably rushed to the US for cancer treatment by the Obama Regime. You watch he will mysteriously reappear better than before. Do the research and see how many socialist and communist been brought to this Country for treatment. Wake up? I just wonder if it is because we have had the greatest health-care system in the world. Which is going to be like the rest of the world's soon enough.
We don't have the greatest health care system in the world. It hasn't been the greatest for some time, unless you're rich and you can afford the best care. For most people, the care is average at best. The best treatments are often not available to you because your insurance doesn't cover those treatments. The best drugs are not available to you because your insurance doesn't cover those drugs. The hospitalization you need may not be available if your insurance company says it isn't necessary. Obamacare may not be the best, but what we have now is crap. We have high infant mortality. We have higher death rates than any other first world nation. We have a lower life expectancy than any other first world nation. It is because we have allowed insurance companies to make medical decisions about what we need rather than deferring to the doctor's judgment. We are a very long way from being the best.
They're not coming to this country because we have the best system, but the best treatments and technology. When we argue about "best", it is important to define what "best" means. The US is great at medicine, but not great at access.
Mr Chavez likely has croaked. Like all dictatorships where too much power is invested in one place, no one knows what to do in the Chavez government, called a power vacuum. Dictators usually surround themselves with less than competent people to lower their risk of getting booted out.
The Chavistas are the new style of dictatorship. They support terrorism and they rule Venezuela in complete violation of their constitution.
The US does not need to cuddle up to this bunch of terrorism enablers for oil. The US can meet our energy needs with our own oil and gas production as a result of the new "fracking" technology, plus oil imports from Canada and Mexico in 6 years. Let's face the facts: Venezuela has armed and supported the terrorist organization FARC for many years and Venezuela brings Iranian military personnel into their country, trains them to be fluent in Spanish and then issues Venezuelan passports to them.
Let's face it: The US can be free of energy dependence on Middle Eastern dictatorships, African criminal governments and Chavez if we only develop the hydrocarbon resources that we have under US soil. Can you imagine how that would change our foreign policy? No more sending troops to the middle east, no more special forces to Africa and no more need to cuddle up to terrorism states like Venezuela. Let the Chinese deal with this collective group of criminals for their energy supply!
Why is the US extending an olive branch to these terrorist thugs? Obama and his foolish administration are doing many stupid things. This is only one of them!
My question is if Sean Penn will attend the funeral?