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Oliver Weiken / Pool via Reuters
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed up his rhetoric last week with an airstrike targeting a Syrian convoy.
News analysis
It's hard to get a handle on it — few Israelis are willing to talk about it on the record — but there's been a palpable shift in thinking in Israel about launching an airstrike on Iran. Nowhere more than in the counter-terrorism community itself.
Even among the more reasoned — and moderate — voices there, the tone has moved from cautious optimism that an Israeli strike on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities could be avoided to gloomy inevitability.
"It's no longer a question of if but when," replied one Israeli analyst when asked if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would respond militarily if Iran crossed his "red lines" and acquired a nuclear bomb.
Several analysts ticked off different factors behind the change of heart:
- A growing realization that sanctions — no matter how robust — won't stop Tehran from crossing Netanyahu's "red lines" and posing an existential threat to the nation.
- Fueled by the Arab Spring, a sense of chaos swirling around Israel's borders has led Israelis to vote once again for the tough-minded Netanyahu — albeit in fewer numbers — and to sympathize with his hardline policy of protecting Israel at all costs, with walls, fences, and airstrikes, if necessary.
- There was a belief — call it a hope — that Netanyahu would not "go it alone" against Iran — that President Barack Obama would prevail upon him to avoid any unilateral action that might trigger an unforeseen Arab conflagration against Israel. But some Israeli analysts say that Netanyahu seems much less worried than Obama about a lethal Arab response to an airstrike on Iran.
Only a few months ago the Israeli consensus on Iran felt much different. At the height of last fall's Iran–Israel crisis, former Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak — once Netanyahu's boss in an elite commando unit — not only had the prime minister's ear, but seemed to counter his most hawkish impulses. Then, in late November, Barak quit the cabinet – and Israeli politics.
After elections last month, a new centrist party and leader were swept onto the political scene. Yair Lapid – a charismatic, former news anchorman – was expected to pressure Netanyahu into softer positions. So far, just the opposite has happened.
"It seems that Lapid is not as committed as Bibi (Netanyahu) to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear…(Lapid) is not being regarded as a military authority in Israel and he might not have the weight to balance Bibi," said Dr Boaz Ganor, director of the Herzliya Institute for Counter-Terrorism.
Ganor went on to say that — ultimately — the order to strike Iran will be most influenced by the next Israeli defense minister. It now looks likely that will be the even more hawkish vice premier, Moshe Yaalon (unless Barak returns to the fold).
Israeli forces conducted an airstrike on a convoy the Syrian-Lebanese border Wednesday. NBC's Richard Engel joins Brian Williams with his analysis.
With some reports suggesting that Iran is only months away from a nuclear bomb, the Obama administration is sticking to its support for tough sanctions, but also saying that Iran cannot be allowed to get a nuclear weapon.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, has backed up his rhetoric: last week, the Israeli Air Force summarily destroyed a Syrian convoy of sophisticated rockets — inside Syria — allegedly heading to Lebanon and into the hands of Hezbollah, a sworn enemy of Israel.
"In Israel, there is wall to wall consent that Israel should do whatever it takes so that Hezbollah does not get access to these dangerous materials," Ganor said.
Will Iran be next?
Jim Maceda is an NBC News foreign correspondent based in London who has just returned from an assignment in Israel.
Related:
Biden: 'Still time' for direct US-Iran talks
Analysis: Israel's airstrike likely to complicate Syria crisis
Surprisingly centrist vote has Netanyahu reaching to the left
Leave a Comment:
"Sworn enemy of Israel" Sounds a little childish to me.........
After they attacked our ship, the USS Liberty, killing 35 American, and then sent Jonathon Pollard to spy on us, why should we help Israel? We waste $3 billion in foreign aid on them every year! That should stop too! They steal land from their neighbors, and wonder why they retaliate!
Have you given back your land to the natives yet? Didnt think so ... If not then STFU
Kent -
And how many Americans have the muslims killed?
Get a little perspective, please!
Israel will not lose any confrontation. However we will possibly lose an ally and America does not have many of those left.
There's an old saying, actions speak louder then words. In Obama's case it's inaction or no action. There are many who believe he is a muslim just like his father, of course you won't here that come out of anybody's mouth on the hill. You will never here what's on a politician's mind come out thier mouth. Think about it, had he admitted that would he ever have been elected. Nobody will be able to convince most Americans this is true, just as most Americans will ever know what go's on in the depths of Obam's mind.....
Gonna get real ugly, people. Don't care which side of the fence one resides on, forget the wheelchair General, Monday Morning Quarterbacking, religious beliefs/non beliefs, which came first the chicken or the egg (read James Michner's "The Source" to get a good feel for how convoluted history is...novel reads backwards in time as archeologists dig down through strata... and you will get a new perspective on just how tangled/debatable the whole issue of "who came first"...when in the end I came to the conclusion; we ALL were first!
I just try and put myself in an Israeli's position...just talking life or death issues...self-preservation. You live in a tiny country (New Jersey size)...you have 8 million TOPS...surrounded by 350,000,000 most of whom are hell-bent on your extermination. Flanked on three sides, you supposed ally (U.S.) has turned it's back on you while giving two-thumbs up to an Arab Spring that reeks worse than Irish Spring arm-pit stick...what would I do? I know one thing I won't do....pass judgement. The whole mess just reeks of mutual mass destruction...I here the tick-tick-tick of such calamity winding down to zero-hour. Not good
Israel is best to go it alone. The incompentent clown in the whitehouse is incapable of managing the foreign policy of the US much less instill any confidence in our allies. He is selling Israel down the river and killing the ass of every two cent raghead potentate in the region. Barry is not capable or qualified to manage a MacDonalds, and the 52% that elected him did so on the basis of what he promised to give them from the other 48%, or purely on his skin color. If the middle east goes up in flames, look to much higher fuel prices and a world wide recession that will drive the US economy deeper into the toilet.
Hypocrites.... when that oil stops flowing. Gas is 6.00 plus a gallon and food prices double you,ll change your tune about getting involved
Armageddon.
Some ally- How many American sailors were killed by Israel on the U.S.S. Liberty?
Then the cowardly bastards strafed our boys in lifeboats--some ally.
And how many Americans have the Muslims killed?
Get a little perspective!
The Federal Reserve Bank, will support Zionism as they both destroy what is left of the American Middle Class.
for the few minutes before this website continually takes down my posts, understand that the Federal Reserve Bank is a FORIEGN CPMPANY
that is exactly as they should do........but eventually they will expect the US to supply the money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Federal Reserve Bank, will support Zionism as they both destroy what is left of the American Middle Class.
for the few minutes before this website continually takes down my posts, understand that the Federal Reserve Bank is a FORIEGN CPMPANY
MSN SUCKS
The Federal Reserve Bank, will support Zionism as they both destroy what is left of the American Middle Class.
for the few minutes before this website continually takes down my posts, understand that the Federal Reserve Bank is a FORIEGN CPMPANY
Would the "so called" Christians please stop the nonsense? Appears that, in the name of Christianity, so much evil has been justified and carried out already. Hitler, justified and executed his evil deeds, slavery was and is still being carried, wars, murders, etc are being carried out in the name of Christianity. Israel may go to war for whatever reason but even they, are not justifying any actions with Christianity; Jews are not Christians as they will rightly tell anyone. If we are all created by God and we are all his children and God says "thou shall not kill" so, how can killing any of his be justified? How is Christianity consistent with preaching of death and destruction? If some want Israel to go kill in Iran in the name of "self preservation" how then is Iran's seeking of nuclear weapon not self preservation? How did the USA go from being Iran's friend to being an arch enemy because they, threw out a corrupt and tyrant leader and exercised their right to rule by someone they wanted? Do we not call that democracy in the USA? If it is the right of everyone in USA to own a gun for prtoection, should it not be OK for every country in the world to have nuclear weapons for protection of their country? Christianity is not different from Islam and other "religions" because they are all a means of controlling/enslaving people. Why is the US, more so than any other country, so afraid of anyone else having nuclear weapons? Why is it that the US claims to have interest in every part of the world therefore needing to dictate to everyone else. Looking at the judgement of our lawmakers, it is pretty scary tho think that the world should go by whatever the US dictates.
hugh -
I didn't know Stalin or Lenin were Jewish...
You need psychiatric help - the sooner the better.
MSN S**ks
The Federal Reserve Bank, will support Zionism as they both destroy what is left of the American Middle Class.
for the few minutes before this website continually takes down my posts, understand that the Federal Reserve Bank is a FORIEGN CPMPANY
MSN SUCKS
I find it ironic how fast many Americans forget the past. Right after 911 everyone seemed to support defending ourselves against radicals. Nobody seemed to have a problem with killing Osama Bin Laden who had for years before attempted to destruct America. Iran has stated the same thing over and over for not only Israel but for us. If your neighbor stated he wanted to annilihate your family and was building bombs next door how would you feel if the police or government said .... well we are not going to do anything but cut off his electricity ... even though he has a generator so he won't be slowed down a bit. It seems that this country is "split" between liberals and conservatives. How about the conservatives like me will be more than willing to support Israel and their defense against the radicals and the liberals start paying out of their paychecks for all the "takers" in this country. Financially we conservatives will be financially better off and alot safer. The United States of America was created due to the fact of someone taxing us to take care of themselves and others and we revolted. This time is coming very close to happening again unless your blind. If you think that other countries that now think we are weak does not make a difference you are a fool. I watch kids today that have no fear or respect for parents or teachers or the police and look at the difference in our country now. Rather you like it or not ... as parents your children gave alot more respect when they had a fear of parents , teachers and the police. This is what made them grow up to be respectful people. World trade and no longer supporting made in the USA has weakened our country so bad that even I wonder where everything is headed. Stop and think .. do you want a leader like Iran, North Korea, Syria, Russia , China, Venezuela, most of Africa ? Look at the European countries and decide if you want to be one of them also... excluding Germany .... these countries gave and gave to the people not producing as much as they consumed and now they expect to keep what they were getting. Remember we gave Osama Bin Laden his start defending Afghanistan against Russia.. once Russia packed up and left and we stopped "funding" Osama Bin Laden... we were now next on his list. Now we are giving Morsi in Egypt our fighter jets and tanks when his past is nothing but a radical Muslim agenda ? You want to support this, your on your own and when " stuff hits the fan " I hope all conservative Americans stand up and note which of their neighbors supported this liberal regime. Morsi comments that Israel's people are nothing but apes and pigs is his statement that is NO DIFFERENT THAN HITLER.... supporting a regime like this is not acceptable in any manor in my opinion. If Egypt was attached to the USA I would guarentee they would be crossing our border faster than the Mexicans. But now let's go back to watching what Honey Boo Boo is up to.
Good for Israel! Go and level the entire country! It's high time someone stepped up and did away with all the world threatening dictators that feel they're the center of the universe and will stop at nothing but global conquest. This entire planets problems all stem from the middle east and it's high time we take Iran to the cleaners and then march on North Korea.
What a jerk off you are, move to Israel if you like war so much.
Yes, go and level the entire country. Israel is willing to fight to the last American. Since they will drag us into this, please go an enlist now. Bring your wife, spouse, children, whatever into it as well.
"You don't go looking for war; but sometimes war comes looking for you." Churchhill. You can try to avoid war at all costs. I might even be right there with you. However, if you do you must be prepared to accept the nuclear holocaust that may well follow.
And I suppose you would move to Palestine and fire blind rockets into the settlements killing innocent people for the cause wouldn't you. It's not a like of war. It's a tiring of the stupidity of leaders who keep waving their big sticks trying to gain world attention by lies and deceit only to now threaten the region and the rest of the world. Are you that blind?
I'm guessing you're from Iran or you're a hipster who goes around waving a peace sign while singing you'd like to buy the world a Coke. You're a fool.
Oh No and It's About Time are hiding behind their Mommy's skirt.
Wussies.
Hey Useless
Is this what it is all about, macho men crap...talk about childish and hiding behind mommy's skirt.
This is all Israel's fault. The sanctions will work. Hillary is the greatest Secretary of State of all times. We don't have a spending problem; we have a revenue problem. The economy is doing fine, and is being held back by the Republicans in Congress. Obamacare will reduce medical costs. There will not be one dime in new taxes on the middle class. Obama is not trying to institute a European socialistic economy. There was no advance warning on Benghazi. The Attorney General had no idea about "Fast and Furious." Just how many times do we need to get lied to before we wise up?
I love it.... Unfortunately we will never wise up. Our impotent politicians, power grabbing presidents ignoring our checks and balanced government, are leading the lambs to slaughter. I don't see much hope.
To Frank- and some others here- it is NOT just Israel that is in danger-it is ALL of us. Iran has been gearing up it's deadly arsenal for sometime AGAINST United Nations treaty. They are anti-american as well and terrorists. I am ASHAMED of this country. Clinton stood at Israels side doing everything he could to promote peace-and almost succeeded years ago. That is not to say he took sides-he simply did all he couldto promote peace and stop terrorists. Israel has always been a strong ally and Clinton (Bill) did not hesitate to try to work out peace. THIS 'leader' (Teflon O'Bama) ignored Net's pleas for help just before the election. O'Bama refused to even meet with him, citing his busy campaign schedule. Congress even, was so shocked that they literally wrote him a letter(google it) begging him to be the world leader, act like a President and at least meet to try to bring peace. Netanyahu had to go to the jewish mayor of Chicago to intervene and get a meeting with the 'President". Secondly, as the 'world leader' and power that America has always been, O'Bama is in a verry powerful position to help the peace efforts, demand Iran stop gearing up and most importantly , take away all the money we give them and Egypt-yet, he didn't even lift a finger. He finally threatened to stop Egypts money when they strarted to show support for the terrorists but he never did. Regardless of what you think of Israel-terrorism is a world problem and if you don't think there is something wrong with a President who virtually IGNORES Iran and does not use the power of the U.S.and financial and other sanctions to stop them-then You have a problem. America has always been a world power-we have plenty of influence and yet, in the face of terrorists threatening our long time ally-HE DOES NOTHING of significance. This administration is not only eroding the economic foundation of THIS country, they are amorally destroying our role as a World Leader. To not take a strong stance and force sanctions on terrorist is a weakness (or simply indifference) that could cost us dearly. It is unconscionable that a country gears up nuclear arms against world regulations and WE DO NOTHING-except continue sending their supporters money. O'Bama slapped Netanyahu in the face at election time-he continued to send OUR money to supporters of Iran terrorists..He is like the man who refused to take an injured person to the hospital or do anything in his power to help, citing a 'busy schedule' (google the note from Congress to him about refusing to meet Net whenthis all began)-even they could not believe his actions as 'LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD" ...HE IS NO LEADER -He cares about one thing only-HIS big government socialist leaning agenda..and I hold HIM partiallly resonsible for what happens with Iran- and what happens to the U.S. as a world power. He is no diplomat, and certainly not a leader...God be with you Israel...
Touche Mary.
Note that the hawks who like to charge "War with Iran" are predominantly a bunch of old white guys. Those of you who are age 50 or above have already messed up this world for the rest of us. Stop it already. You've done enough damage to last the lifetime of your children and your grandchildren. Go play shuffleboard and drink all day long while watching Law and Order reruns. Shame on all of you.
To JinSOFLA: You won't be watching ANYTHING on TV if Iran succeeds..do you really think terrorists love America? How does it feel to know YOUR money is going to Iran terrorist supporting factions in Egypt and your president does nothing, except threaten to take it away-yet doesnt? Of course, since Teflon O'Bama is so good at hiding any fact (aka Benghazi) that Americans might not like, you probably don't even know just how much money we send them and other countries surrounding Israel that have become supporters of the terrorists-do some research..or just sit in ignorant adoration of O'Bama's pretty photo-ops...O'Bama does NOTt believe in the U.S. as a 'world power". REad more about him and you will learn that-and now you see it in action. His political idealogy is vastly different-beleiving all countries should be 'equal'...a nice high school theory, but a very dangerous reality for us ALL....
Israel is not lily white.......throw the rock...hide the hand.........and let the USA PAY
Iran is not only threatening Israel, they are threatening and hate the USA more; but unfortunately Israel is closer to Iran so when Iran decides to use their nukes, they know their weapons will at least reach there and they continue to plug away building long range missles without any response from the Obama administration other than "you can't do that." Do you know what happened to the people of Japan when the USA dropped their nuke on them? If you don't educate yourself--it was vile for those who lived!
PM Netanyahu has made a wise choice to go it alone, our stong military would ultimately help Israel's military to destroy Iran's nuclear threat, but our weak leader would only stand in the way. If Iran or any other country would aim their nukes toward the USA, it would take over a year for B.O. and his administration to figure out who bombed us, if it was the result of a spontaneous response to a video or whether it was a terrorist attack, who the enemies are, and what social issues are being violated before he responds, if he responds at all. May God be with the Israelis and all the innocent people of Iran, and may God help the USA while B.O. is president.
Is this like WMD in Iraq? You are totally clueless....sheeeeeeep
Oh_no is what the doctor said when you was born. Ask some Iraqis and definitely ask the Kurds and they will tell you there were WMD. Hussein (not Obama) drained the Tigress and Iraq borders Syria who Obama's intelligence has indicated has WMD--so you do the logic, jackass.
It's really a shame the American leadership doesn't have the cajones.
If America declares war in Iran, are you willing to go over there and fight yourself? What about your wife going? your kids? your neighbors, co workers, or anyone else you know?
How many americans should die on this one and how much more in taxes are you willing to pay for it.
And it doesn't even take 'cajones' to simply threaten them, stand up against them, enforce U.N.treaty and most importantly STOP SENDING THEM MONEY- God knows, after O'Bama is done emptying our wallet with his 'new priorities' we ccould certainly use the money...and if Iran succeeeds-God help us all..
Hey ItsAboutTime, I'm guessing you'd be ok if those same countries come over here and put us in shackles and make us slaves right? You're the most Un-American here. Land Of the Free Home of the brave! LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT! Move to Canada!
These same people you keep going on about protecting would see you and your family dead! What would you do if they invaded the US or even worse managed to launch nukes and hit the town you live in? Would you pull your skirt over your head and run or would you run to them and be the "Welcome Wagon" You're an American Traitor! Peace Loving idiot!
Iran is being run by the Devil, I don't blame Israel because they can see the writing on the wall. It is just a matter of time before Iran commits more evil. If Israel is counting on help from Obozo they are not going to get any from our socialist muslim liberal leader.