By Carlos Rajo, Telemundo

News analysis

(Editor's note: An earlier version of this article led to a correction)

Raul Castro’s recent announcement that he will leave power in 2018, and his appointment of 52-year-old Miguel Diaz-Canel as first vice president and his de facto successor, are signs of the glacial pace of political change in Cuba.

Certainly, these announcements won’t satisfy those who for decades have been waiting for the Castro brothers’ exit.

Nevertheless, the move marks the beginning of the passing of the torch of power to a new generation.

For the first time in half a century, there is the real possibility that a person who did not fight in the Cuban Revolution will lead the country. Diaz-Canel was not even born when Fidel Castro overthrew Fulgencio Batista in January 1959. Since then, a Castro has been in power in Cuba: first the now-retired, 86-year-old Fidel, and from 2006 to now, his younger brother, Raul, 81.

This generational change does not mean that Cuba will move to a different political system. There is no going back to capitalism, Raul Castro told the National Assembly on Sunday. Nevertheless, the move toward a generational change must be seen in the context of other reforms implemented by the younger Castro.

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These reforms already are changing the face of Cuban socialism. Castro has introduced private farms, cooperatives in industries and activities outside agriculture, and an array of small business. Granted, these are restricted and heavily regulated, but still they are earning profits and starting to create a segment of wealthier, successful entrepreneurs. Cubans are also now allowed to sell houses and cars, and more recently, to travel abroad if they can get a visa from another country.

While little is known of Diaz-Canel’s ideology, it is likely that as the appointed Castro successor he is on board with the reforms.

The U.S. State Department reacted tepidly to Castro’s announcement and made clear that it would not be sufficient to prompt a lifting of the U.S. trade embargo. Although President Barack Obama doesn’t have election constraints in formulating a Cuba policy in his second term, the issue remains emotionally and politically charged in the U.S., and Congress is not likely to change its mind and lift the embargo while a Castro remains in power.

That doesn’t mean relations can’t change, however.

For instance, the Obama administration could remove Cuba from the list of states that sponsor terrorism. Cuba had been on that list since 1982, when it had the financial support of the Soviet Union and could afford to help guerrilla groups in Central and South America.

Cuba doesn’t have the resources to help armed groups - or even the political will to do so. Cuba is not Syria, North Korea or Iran in terms of being a threat to the U.S.

However, the lifting of the embargo is likely only after a period of more normal relations between the countries. There is also a legal obstacle: According to the Helms-Burton Act of 1996, the U.S. will recognize the legitimacy of a Cuban government only when someone other than a Castro is in power. For now, at least, it seems that won’t happen until 2018.

Demotions
The generational change in Cuba is real. Not only does Diaz-Canel take the place of the 83-year-old Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, but the composition of others organs of power is younger as well. Eighty percent of the members of the National Assembly were born after the revolution, and the average age of members of the Council of State is 57, with about 60 percent having been born post-revolution.

As is the tradition in Cuba, Diaz-Canel owes his influential position to one of the Castros -- in this case, Raul. As far back as 2003, the younger Castro talked about the “solid ideological firmness” of the electrical engineer, who also has served as a university professor and party boss in the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara and Holguin. Notably, Diaz-Canel served in the armed forces under Raul Castro and earned a reputation as a good manager of the military’s diverse commercial enterprises.

Diaz-Canel will have to be careful. There have been several young leaders who once looked like they had been chosen as a Castro successor but later fell from grace. In every case -- Roberto Robaina, Carlos Lague, Felipe Perez Roque -- they went from being the heir apparent to being suddenly demoted without much ceremony or explanation. The difference is that all were put in their positions of power by Fidel Castro and were demoted when they fell out of favor with him. Diaz-Canel is said to be Raul Castro’s favorite.

Assuming that nothing extraordinary happens before 2018, that Raul remains healthy and that there are no ideological purges – “corruption” is the favorite accusation of the Cuban leadership when it comes to making demotions --  the big question for Cuba, and for Diaz-Canel himself, is the success of Raul’s reforms.

If they work well, perhaps the regime will develop a sort of hybrid socialism-communism with a dynamic, state-controlled capitalist economy. Or maybe day by day the reforms will penetrate Cuban society and ultimately destroy one the few communist systems left in the world. Diaz-Canel, meanwhile, will start toying with the torch of power.

Only time will tell whether -- when the day comes in 2018 or sooner -- the Cuba that Diaz-Canel has known will still be there for him to rule.

Telemundo is NBC News' Spanish-language partner.

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HAVANA — Cuban leader Raul Castro announced on Sunday he would step down from power after his second term as president ends in 2018, and the new parliament named a 52-year-old rising star to become his first vice president and most visible successor.

Castro, 81, made the announcement in a nationally broadcast speech shortly after the Cuban National Assembly elected him to a second five-year term in the opening session of the new parliament.

"This will be my last term," Castro said.

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In a surprise move, the new parliament named as his first vice president Miguel Diaz-Canel, a member of the political bureau who rose through the party ranks in the provinces to become the most visible possible successor to Castro. Diaz-Canel would succeed Castro if he cannot serve his full term.

The new government will almost certainly be the last headed up by the Castro brothers and their followers who have ruled Cuba since they swept down from the mountains in the 1959 revolution.

Raul Castro starts his second term immediately, leaving him free to retire in 2018, aged 86.

Former president Fidel Castro joined the meeting, in a rare public appearance. Since falling ill in 2006 and ceding the presidency to his brother, the elder Castro, 86, has given up official positions except as a deputy in the National Assembly.

Governments, Cuba watchers and Cubans were keenly observing to see if any new, and younger, faces might appear among the Council of State members, in particular its first vice president and five vice presidents.

Their hopes were partially fulfilled with Diaz-Canel's ascension. He replaces former first vice president, Jose Machado Ventura, 82, who will continue on as one of five vice presidents. Commander of the Revolution Ramiro Valdes, 80, and Gladys Bejerano, 66, the comptroller general were also re-elected as vice presidents.

Two other newcomers, Mercedes López Acea, 48, first secretary of the Havana communist party, and Salvador Valdes Mesa, 64, head of the official labor federation, also earned vice presidential slots.

Former vice president Esteban Lazo, member of the political bureau of the Communist Party, 68, left his post upon being named parliament president on Sunday, replacing Ricardo Alarcon, who served for 20 years.

Six of the Council's top seven members sit on the party's political bureau which is also lead by Castro.

The National Assembly meets for just a few weeks each year and delegates its legislative powers between sessions to the 31-member Council of State, which also functions as the nation's executive through the Council of Ministers it appoints.

Eighty percent of the 612 deputies, who were elected in an uncontested vote February 3 and with an average age under 50, were born after the Revolution.

HAVANA, Cuba — Three years after he was arrested in Havana, jailed American contractor Alan Gross is asking the U.S. government to sign a "non-belligerency pact" with Cuba as a first step toward negotiating his release, according to a Cuba policy analyst who just visited him.

Peter Kornbluh, a Cuba specialist at the National Security Archives, a nonprofit research center in Washington, met with Gross for four hours on Wednesday at the military hospital in Havana where the contractor is being held. He said Gross appeared "extremely thin" — he has lost over 100 pounds since his arrest —and dispirited.

"He’s angry, he’s frustrated, he’s dejected — and he wants his own government to step up" and negotiate, said Kornbluh. "His message is that the United States and Cuba have to sit down and have a dialogue without preconditions. … He told me that the first meeting should result in a non-belligerency pact being signed between the United States and Cuba."

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Gross' comments appear to represent a new tack in an aggressive public relations campaign to win his freedom. His supporters have planned a candlelight vigil outside the Cuban interests section in Washington D.C., on Sunday and the U.S. Senate is poised to take up a resolution Monday demanding his release, Gross’ wife, Judy, has also become increasingly critical of the U.S. government for not doing more to demand that her 63-year-old husband be allowed to return home.

"He feels like a soldier in the field left to die," she said at a press conference in Washington last week.

Gross, who worked for an Agency for International Development contractor, was arrested by the Cubans on Dec. 3, 2009, and accused of smuggling sophisticated satellite and other telecommunications equipment into  the country to give to the island’s tiny Jewish community. Gross has said he was only trying to increase Internet access  in Cuba. But he was convicted by a Cuban court in March of last year for crimes "against the independence and territorial integrity of the state" and sentenced to 15 years.

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Cuba pushes swap: its spies jailed in US for American contractor held in Havana

Slideshow: Castro through the years

Last month, Gross and his wife filed a $60 million lawsuit against the U.S. government and the contractor he was working for, Development Alternatives, charging he was used as a "pawn" in a U.S. government program to change the Castro regime and never advised about the dangers he faced bringing high tech satellite transmission equipment into Cuba. (The State Department, of which AID is a part and which has repeatedly called for Gross’ release, declined comment. Development Alternatives has released a statement saying it has "no higher priority" than bringing Gross home.) 

Kornbluh, who has advocated closer U.S.-Cuba dialogue, was in Havana last week to attend a conference marking the 50th anniversary of the Cuban missile crisis. He was granted permission to visit Gross by Cuban officials. (The Cubans so far have denied all news media requests to meet with him.) He said Gross was most upset about being unable to return home to see members of his family who are ill, especially his 90-year-old mother in Texas who has cancer.

"He really wants to see his mother, who is quite old and infirm,” said Kornbluh. When Kornbluh had his photo taken with Gross, the contractor held up a photo that read: “Hi Mom.” When he asked Gross what he wanted to get out of the lawsuit, the contractor replied: “I want to see my wife and I want to see my mother."

To accomplish that, Gross is seeking to nudge the Obama administration, according to Kornbluh. Gross knows that his freedom "is going to depend on his government negotiating in good faith with the Cubans," said Kornbluh. "His message to Barack Obama is: I’m fired up and ready to go. Where are you at this moment?"

Michael Isikoff is NBC News' national investigative correspondent; NBC News producer Mary Murray also contributed to this report.

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HAVANA, Cuba — It seems straight out of a Cold War spy movie. A group of Cuban undercover agents sneak into the U.S. and set up a secret pro-Castro network in south Florida — receiving instructions in code through late night radio transmissions from handlers in Havana. But the FBI gets wind, tails the agents, intercepts their messages and busts them, sending the agents off to federal prison, their ringleader for life.

Today, the story of those spies — called La Red Avispa, or the Wasp Network — rolled up by the feds 14 years ago is barely known in the United States. But its members, now  known as the Cuban Five, are national heroes in Cuba — the subjects of mass demonstrations, their pictures on billboards and  posters – and their petitions for freedom are championed around the world by Nobel Prize winners, celebrities like Danny Glover, even former President Jimmy Carter.

And they may now prove key to the tense impasse between Havana and Washington over the fate of jailed American contractor Alan Gross, arrested three years ago Monday for distributing sophisticated satellite equipment to Cuba’s tiny Jewish community and later sentenced to 15 years in prison for "acts against the independence and/or territorial integrity of the state." (Gross says he was only bringing Internet access to Cuba.)

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While the U.S. is demanding that Cuba release Gross, who visitors say is angry and frail, having lost 110 pounds in prison, Cuban officials say they are willing to do so only if President Barack Obama will  release the Cuban agents.

"I understand what Mr. Gross is going through," Gerardo Hernandez, 47, the Cuban Five ringleader, said in an exclusive interview with NBC News in October at his current home --a federal prison outside Victorville, Calif. "I understand his sufferings and that of his family. … If an agreement can be reached, to stop the sufferings of six families, then I welcome it."

The idea of a swap — the release of Gross for Hernandez and his confederates among the Cuban Five — faces legal and political hurdles.

An Obama administration official told NBC News that the "imprisonment of Alan Gross, an international development worker, is not comparable in any way to that of the five Cuban agents," noting that the Cubans were afforded their "due process rights" and convicted of serious crimes.

Members of Congress have denounced Cuba for holding Gross "hostage" to the release of the Cuban Five. "The Castro regime has no regard for human rights or international law," said Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey, a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and frequent critic of the Castro regime. "The Cuba Five should serve their sentences for spying."

And Hernandez, who sports a trim goatee and displays a hearty laugh despite 14 years in prison,  might not make the ideal candidate for a pardon or commutation from Obama — a precondition for a swap to take place. Asked if he regretted any of his actions, he smiled and said,  "I regret that I got caught." In a follow up phone interview, Hernandez readily acknowledged that "we violated some U.S. laws" — mainly failing to register as foreign agents with the U.S. Justice Department. "We came here with fake passports. Fake identities."  But, he added, "We act out of necessity."

As Hernandez and Cuban officials tell it, the Cuban Five was not sent to spy on the U.S. government. In fact, the members weren’t accused of stealing any U.S. secrets (although they were convicted of conducting surveillance of U.S. military bases.) Instead, the mission of the Wasp Network, they say, was to infiltrate  anti-Castro exile groups in South Florida who Havana suspected of plotting terrorist attacks inside Cuba. Among those attacks: the notorious bombing of Cubana Flight 455 over the Caribbean in 1976, killing 73 passengers (including teenage members of a Cuban  national fencing team)  as  well as a string of hotel bombings in Havana in  1997 that killed an Italian businessman and were believed to have been aimed at disrupting Cuba’s nascent tourist industry.   

"Cuba doesn’t have drones to neutralize the terrorists abroad," said Hernandez. "They need to send people to gather information and protect the Cuban people from these terrorist actions. … I think it’s the same feeling that Americans have that defend their country and love their country when they go to infiltrate al-Qaida and send information here to avoid the terrorist acts. And the U.S. has to understand that Cuba has been involved in the war against terrorism for 50 years.”

While admitting his role in spying on anti-Castro exiles — "I would do it again," he said — Hernandez adamantly denies the most serious charge against him: conspiracy to commit murder. His conviction on that count, which has earned him a life sentence, was based on his alleged complicity in the February 1996 shoot-down by a Cuban fighter jet of two Cessna planes flown by members of the Cuban exile group Brothers to the Rescue, killing four men.

The anti-Castro group had provoked Cuba by dropping anti-government leaflets over Havana. At the trial of the Cuban Five, prosecutors introduced messages between Hernandez and his controllers in Havana suggesting he had prior knowledge of the shoot-down. But Hernandez insists that prosecutors misinterpreted the messages and he knew nothing that wasn’t already public.

"No, sir, absolutely not," Hernandez replied when asked if he knew in advance about the incident. "All I knew was what everybody knew: that Brothers to the Rescue through the years has violated many times Cuban air space, that there have been 16 diplomatic notes from Cuba complaining over that situation."

Ricardo Alarcon, president of Cuba’s National Assembly (the Parliament) and a longtime Castro confidante, said this week in Havana that "the Cuban government publicly, front page in our papers, months before that incident had warned that we are not going to allow any more intrusions into our air space. … The order, the decision (to shoot down the planes) came from the highest level. Fidel Castro himself had said that publicly, that he was responsible for that decision."

U.S. Appeals Court Judge Phyllis Kravitch of Atlanta concluded in 2008 that prosecutors never proved their case tying Hernandez to a plot to shoot down the planes, but she was outvoted two to one and his conviction on the murder conspiracy charge was upheld. Now Hernandez and his lawyers are appealing on another ground: that hundreds of thousands of dollars in secret  U.S. government payments to anti-Castro journalists in Miami — newly discovered through Freedom of Information Act requests — inflamed the Miami community against the Cuban Five and made it impossible for them for them to get a fair trial. The payments were mostly made for appearances on Radio Marti, a TV and radio operation funded by the Broadcasting Board of Governors, an independent agency that oversees international broadcasting sponsored by the U.S. government.

Slideshow: Castro through the years

In court papers, lawyers for the Cuban Five have cited articles by some of the journalists, including one that denounced the "genocidal character" of Castro’s regime and another that speculated that the real purpose of the Wasp Network was to introduce "chemical or bacteriological weapons" into south Florida. “"his information was spread throughout the Miami area and helped inflame the community against these guys," said Martin Garbus, Hernandez’ lawyer. "It was total madness. … When the case was brought, the anti-Castro feeling in the Miami area was at a fevered pitch."

U.S. prosecutors dismiss as “implausible” and "unfounded" the idea that the Radio Marti payments were part of a U.S. government effort to influence the jury in the Cuban Five case.

 "The jury (in the case) was carefully selected, following a searching voir dire (jury selection process) that the appellate court deemed a high model for a high-profile case, and that the trial comported with the highest standards for fairness and professionalism,” wrote Caroline Heck Miller, an assistant U.S. attorney in Miami, in a court filing in July asking a judge to reject Hernandez’ motion for a hearing into the payments to the journalists. She also noted, as federal prosecutors have repeatedly done when the issue has come up, that “no Cuban-Americans – the audience (Hernandez) hypothesizes as the target of the government campaign he imagines — served on the jury."

Unless Hernandez can somehow persuade a court to reopen his case  – or barring a prisoner swap with Gross — he would seem to have few options.

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Rene Gonzalez, another member of the Cuban Five who was not convicted of the conspiracy-to-commit-murder charge, was released from federal prison on probation late last year, but has not yet been allowed to return home to Cuba to live.

The Cubans are doing their best to ratchet up the pressure. Just as Judy Gross has launched a public relations campaign in the United States to free her husband, appearing at a National Press Club press conference on Friday, this week the Cubans made Hernandez wife, Adriana, available for an interview with NBC News. A chemist in the food industry in Havana, she wept as she described the pain of separation from her husband — and how it has left her unable to bear children. "Every detail, every single moment reminds me of him," she said. "I believe there are many people in the U.S. and the American people as a whole, who could convey to President Obama that there is a woman here suffering."

Hernandez, too, says missing his wife is the hardest part of his life in prison. And he has few illusions about his prospects of being freed. "The only thing I know for sure with me is that I have two life sentences and live with that every day," he said. "And to keep your sanity and your mind, you have to be realistic. But I would be dishonest to say that I don’t have hope."

Michael Isikoff is NBC News' national investigative correspondent; NBC News Producer Mary Murray also contributed to this report.

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New in this version: Adds photo of Castro at reported meeting 

Updated at 2:33 p.m. ET: Several people, including the former vice president of Venezuela, say they saw Fidel Castro — reported last week to have been on his deathbed — out and about in public on Saturday.

The Cuban government referred all request for comment to the state-owned Hotel Nacional de Cuba in Havana, where hotel officials said guests and staff chatted with Castro on Saturday after his car dropped off former Venezuelan Vice President Elias Jaua.

PhotoBlog: Former Venezuelan VP says he met with Fidel Castro

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Jaua told NBC News that he met with Castro for five hours on Saturday. He showed reporters a photograph that he said was taken of the meeting. It was not immediately possible to confirm when the photo was taken.  

Castro, 86, was widely rumored among Cuban exiles and Latin American media organizations to have suffered a massive stroke and was said to be on a respirator, unable to talk or feed himself. His family denied those rumors. 

Castro last's public appearance was in March, when he met with Pope Benedict XVI in Havana. In response to the health rumors last week, the government read a statement in his name at an event marking the 50th anniversary of a Havana medical school. 

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Amid rumors that Fidel Castro's health had deteriorated, a message from the Cuban revolutionary leader was read out on his behalf at an event in Havana on Wednesday. 

In a news item broadcast on state television, Cuba’s Minister of Public Health Roberto Morales was seen and heard delivering the statement marking the 50^th anniversary of a Havana medical school, according to AP Television.

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In it, the former president paid tribute to the thousands of clinicians who had graduated from the institute over the past half-century and reminded those present why it had been set up.

"The institute was inaugurated in response to the criminal action by the neighboring empire (referring to U.S.) to take, as it did with promises of visas and employment, the majority of our 6,000 medical doctors in this country," said Morales, reading the statement from Castro.

NYT: Cuba to allow free travel abroad

No images or sound from Castro himself were broadcast.

Cuba’s news agency, Prensa Latina, reported that during the ceremony, certificates of recognition, signed by Castro, were presented to workers, teachers and students.

The health and location of Fidel are shrouded in mystery. The Associated Press reported that Castro had been mostly out of sight since he left office in 2006 due to a life-threatening intestinal condition. At times the only word on how he was doing came in remarks from ally Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's president. On October 4, Chavez told reporters Castro had been in touch to comment on Venezuela’s presidential campaign. 

NBC News' Peter Jeary and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Updated 1:38 p.m. ET: HAVANA, Cuba -- A senior U.S. senator met with imprisoned American Alan Gross and discussed the man's case in a long sit-down with Cuban President Raul Castro, but said Friday that he doesn't expect Gross to be released any time soon.

Sen. Patrick Leahy, a Democrat from Vermont, said he saw Gross on Thursday afternoon at a Havana military prison. He and Sen. Richard Shelby, a Republican from Alabama, later met for 2 1/2 hours with Castro and offered to take Gross back to the United States on their plane.

"You can imagine how far that went," Leahy said in a phone interview Friday with The Associated Press. He added that "we have a long way to go" to win Gross's release.

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The 62-year-old Maryland native is serving a 15-year jail term for spiriting satellite and other communications equipment onto the island while on a USAID-funded democracy-building program. Cuba considers the programs an attempt to destabilize the government, and Gross was convicted of crimes against the state, not espionage.

The Gross affair has chilled relations between the U.S. and Cuba and short-circuited any chance of rapprochement since President Barack Obama took office.

The Gross family wants Castro to pardon him on humanitarian grounds because his mother and adult daughter both have cancer, a call backed by the Obama administration, which insists Gross is innocent.

Leahy said Castro agreed that Gross "was no spy." Gross spoke virtually no Spanish and traveled to Cuba five times under his own name before his arrest in December 2009.

The talks with Castro and the senators was the first high-level meeting between the Cold War enemies since former President Jimmy Carter dined with Castro during a visit to the island in April 2010. Leahy said the late-night meeting was cordial and open.

The meeting took place as the Cuban diplomatic mission in Washington announced plans to host what it called the "1st National Encounter" with Cubans living in the United States. The meeting will bring together Cuban-Americans "who have respectful links to their country," in order to discuss "the normalization of relations" between Cuba and the exile community in the United States, the statement said.

Leahy said Castro brought up the case of five Cuban agents sentenced to long jail terms in the United States, including one who was released last year but has not been allowed to return to Cuba while he serves out three years probation.

Leahy said Castro never explicitly linked Gross' fate with that of the agents, who were jailed in 1998, but "he made it very clear that while we may be concerned for Mr. Gross and have humanitarian reasons to be, they are very concerned about the five (agents) and have humanitarian and family reasons too."

While the agents' case is largely forgotten in the United States, it remains a cause celebre in Cuba, where the government hails the "Cuban Five" as heroes who were only trying to detect and prevent violent attacks against their country by exile groups.

Cuban officials have stopped short of linking the cases, but have said no one should expect the island to free the 62-year-old American in a "unilateral gesture."

Gross's legal appeals have been exhausted, but his family has asked Castro to consider a pardon on humanitarian grounds. Gross, who was portly when arrested in December 2009, has lost about 100 pounds and is now rail thin. His elderly mother and adult daughter are both battling cancer.

Leahy said Gross appeared in reasonably good spirits during the visit, but that he also indicated his two years of detention had taken a toll on his health.

"He obviously wants to leave. He feels that his health has been endangered," Leahy said, adding that he snapped several pictures of Gross to bring back to his wife, Judy.

Cuban state-run media carried images of the meeting between Castro and the senators, though they gave no details of what was discussed. Cuban media said Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez was also present.

The senators are part of an American congressional delegation touring Cuba, Haiti and Colombia. The other members of the delegation, all Democrats, were Sens. Christopher Coons of Delaware and Kent Conrad of North Dakota and Reps. Peter Welch of Vermont and Xavier Becerra of California.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

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