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  • 26
    Nov
    2012
    6:26am, EST

    Splits between rich, poor nations persist as climate talks open in Doha

    By The Associated Press

    DOHA, Qatar -- U.N. talks on a new climate pact resumed Monday in oil and gas-rich Qatar, where negotiators from nearly 200 countries will discuss fighting global warming and helping poor nations adapt to it.

    The two-decade-old talks have not fulfilled their main purpose: reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that scientists say are warming the planet.

    Attempts to create a new climate treaty failed in Copenhagen three years ago but countries agreed last year to try again, giving themselves a deadline of 2015 to adopt a new treaty.

    A host of issues need to be resolved by then, including how to spread the burden of emissions cuts between rich and poor countries.

    Focus on Kyoto Protocol, raising money
    That is unlikely to be decided in the two-week talks in the Qatari capital of Doha, where negotiators will focus on extending the Kyoto Protocol, an emissions deal for industrialized countries, and trying to raise billions of dollars to help developing countries adapt to a shifting climate.

    EPA

    South African Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana Mashabane speaks during the opening of the climate talks in Doha, Qatar, on Monday.

    Activists hope storm-struck US will deliver at Doha climate talks

    "We all realize why we are here, why we keep coming back year and after year," said South Africa Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, who led last year's talks in Durban, South Africa. "We owe it to our people, the global citizenry. We owe it to our children to give them a safer future than what they are currently facing."

    The U.N. process is often criticized, even ridiculed, both by climate activists who say the talks are too slow, and by those who challenge the scientific near-consensus that the global temperature rise is at least partly caused by human activity, primarily the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil.

    The concentration of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide has jumped 20 percent since 2000, according to a U.N. report released last week. The report also showed that there is a growing gap between what governments are doing to curb emissions and what needs to be done to protect the world from potentially dangerous levels of warming.

    The goal of the U.N. talks is to keep the global temperature rise under 3.6 F, compared to pre-industrial times.

    Slideshow: Rising ocean levels threaten Maldives

    The Maldives, the lowest-lying nation on Earth, is at risk of disappearing from the world map, scientists say.

    Launch slideshow

    Obama: 'I won't go' for climate action that hurts jobs, growth

    The threat 'today'
    But efforts taken so far to rein in emissions, reduce deforestation and promote clean technology are not getting the job done. A recent projection by the World Bank showed temperatures are expected to increase by up to 7.2 F by 2100.


    Follow @NBCNewsWorld

    "Climate change is no longer some distant threat for the future, but is with us today," said Greenpeace climate campaigner Martin Kaiser, who was also at the Doha talks. "At the end of a year that has seen the impacts of climate change devastate homes and families around the world, the need for action is obvious and urgent."

    Dangerous warming effects could include flooding of coastal cities and island nations, disruptions to agriculture and drinking water, the spread of diseases and the extinction of species.

    Many scientists also say that extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Sandy's onslaught on the U.S. East Coast, will become more frequent as the Earth warms, although it is impossible to attribute any individual event to climate change.

    The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, is the most important climate agreement reached in the U.N. process so far. It expires this year, so negotiators in Doha will try to extend it as a stopgap measure until a wider deal can be reached.

    Ex-climate change skeptic: Humans cause global warming

    For thousands of years, permafrost has trapped Siberia's carbon-rich soil, a compost of Ice Age plant and animal remains. But global warming is melting the permafrost and exposing the soil, causing highly flammable methane to seep out. NBC's Jim Maceda reports.

    Divisions
    The problem is that only the European Union and a handful of other countries -- that together are behind less than 15 percent of global emissions -- are willing to put down emissions targets for a second commitment period of Kyoto.

    The United States rejected Kyoto because it did not impose any binding commitments on major developing countries such as India and China, which is now the world's No. 1 carbon emitter.

    Climate-changing methane 'rapidly destabilizing' off East Coast, study finds

    The United States and other Western countries insist that the firewall in the climate talks between developing and developed countries must be removed so that the new treaty can apply to all nations.

    China and other developing countries want to maintain a clear division, saying climate change is mainly a legacy of Western industrialization and that their own emissions must be allowed to grow as their economies expand, lifting millions of people out of poverty.

    Slideshow: Greenland’s shrinking ice hurts native tribe

    The Inuit, who survived for centuries by hunting seals and whales, are watching their way of life disappear.

    Launch slideshow

    Complete Environment coverage on NBCNews.com

    That discord scuttled attempts to forge a climate deal in Copenhagen in 2009 and risks a relapse in Doha as talks begin on a new global deal that is supposed to be adopted in 2015 and implemented in 2020.

    The rich-poor divide is also deepened by arguments over climate aid meant to help developing countries convert to cleaner energy sources and adapt their infrastructure to rising sea levels and other effects of global warming.

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    © 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

    51 comments

    the scientific near-consensus

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    Explore related topics: featured, climate-change, united-nations, qatar, greenhouse-gases, kyoto-protocol, doha
  • 19
    Nov
    2012
    10:14am, EST

    No nation immune to climate change, World Bank report shows

     

    By Anna Yukhananov, Reuters

    WASHINGTON — All nations will suffer the effects of a warmer world, but it is the world's poorest countries that will be hit hardest by food shortages, rising sea levels, cyclones and drought, the World Bank said in a report on climate change. 

    Under new World Bank President Jim Yong Kim, the global development lender has launched a more aggressive stance to integrate climate change into development. 


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    "We will never end poverty if we don't tackle climate change. It is one of the single biggest challenges to social justice today," Kim told reporters on a conference call on Friday. 

    The report, called "Turn Down the Heat," highlights the devastating impact of a world hotter by 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, a likely scenario under current policies, according to the report. 

    Climate change is already having an effect: Arctic sea ice reached a record minimum in September, and extreme heat waves and drought in the last decade have hit places like the United States and Russia more often than would be expected from historical records, the report said. 

    Such extreme weather is likely to become the "new normal" if the temperature rises by 4 degrees, according to the World Bank report. This is likely to happen if not all countries comply with pledges they have made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Even assuming full compliance, the world will warm by more than 3 degrees by 2100. 

    In this hotter climate, the level of the sea would rise by up to 3 feet, flooding cities in places like Vietnam and Bangladesh. Water scarcity and falling crop yields would exacerbate hunger and poverty. 

    Extreme heat waves would devastate broad swaths of the earth's land, from the Middle East to the United States, the report says. The warmest July in the Mediterranean could be 9 degrees hotter than it is today -- akin to temperatures seen in the Libyan desert. 

    The combined effect of all these changes could be even worse, with unpredictable effects that people may not be able to adapt to, said John Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which along with Climate Analytics prepared the report for the World Bank. 

    "If you look at all these things together, like organs cooperating in a human body, you can think about acceleration of this dilemma," said Schellnhuber, who studied chaos theory as a physicist. "The picture reads that this is not where we want the world to go.

    Shocked into action
    As the first scientist to head the World Bank, Kim has pointed to "unequivocal" scientific evidence for man-made climate change to urge countries to do more. 

    Kim said 97 percent of scientists agree on the reality of climate change. 

    "It is my hope that this report shocks us into action," Kim, writes in the report. 

    Scientists are convinced that global warming in the past century is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. These findings by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were recognized by the national science academies of all major industrialized nations in a joint statement in 2010.

    Kim said the World Bank plans to further meld climate change with development in its programs.

    Last year, the Bank doubled its funding for countries seeking to adapt to climate change, and now operates $7.2 billion in climate investment funds in 48 countries. 

    The World Bank study comes as almost 200 nations will meet in Doha, Qatar, from Nov. 26 to Dec. 7 to try to extend the Kyoto Protocol, the existing plan for curbing greenhouse gas emissions by developed nations that runs to the end of the year. 

    They have been trying off and on since Kyoto was agreed in 1997 to widen limits on emissions but have been unable to find a formula acceptable to both rich and poor nations. 

    Emerging countries like China, the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, have said the main responsibility to cut emissions lies with developed nations, which had a headstart in sparking global warming. 

    Combating climate change also poses a challenge for the poverty-fighting World Bank: how to balance global warming with immediate energy needs in poor countries.

    In 2010, the World Bank approved a $3.75 billion loan to develop a coal-fired power plant in South Africa despite lack of support from the United States, Netherlands and Britain due to environmental concerns. 

    "There really is no alternative to urgent action given the devastating consequences of climate change," global development group Oxfam said in a statement. "Now the question for the World Bank is how it will ensure that all of its investments respond to the imperatives of the report." 

    Kim said the World Bank tries to avoid investing in coal unless there are no other options. 

    "But at the same time, we are the group of last resort in finding needed energy in countries that are desperately in search of it," he said. 

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    18 comments

    News Flash: Science confirms Climate Change Crisis “WILL NOT”happen. 26 years of science saying a climate change crisis could happen and never saying it “will” happen is as good as saying it “WILL NOT” happen. Not one single IPCC crisis report isn’t showered …

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    Explore related topics: featured, climate-change, world-bank, commentid-featured
  • 26
    Oct
    2012
    4:40pm, EDT

    Great Barrier Reef's coral crisis could find help in deeper waters

    Caitlin Seaview Survey

    This was among the healthy coral found in deep waters below Australia's Great Barrier Reef during the October 2012 work by the Caitlin Seaview Survey.

    By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

    A robot diving deeper than any human diver has found that coral deep below Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is very healthy even though the shallower coral is suffering from storms, warming seas and pollution. The robot’s handlers hope the deeper coral will provide the "recruits" needed to naturally repair the shallower reefs.

    "Up until now our knowledge was limited to the shallow reefs accessible by scuba diving," Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, chief scientist for the Catlin Seaview Survey, said in a statement announcing the findings. "In reality, that provided us with an incomplete picture."

    The remote-operated vehicle, he added, allows scientists to study coral at depths between 90 and 300 feet, "revealing a wholly different picture which now includes the deep reef environment."


    John Bruno, a University of North Carolina coral expert not associated with the survey, welcomed the work. "This is a popular idea," he said of deeper coral providing a refuge, "just not well tested."

    Caitlin Seaview Survey

    The robot used by the Caitlin Seaview Survey takes a sample from a deepwater area of Australia's Great Barrier Reef during its October 2012 work.

    Carden Wallace, a coral expert at the Museum of Tropical Queensland, added that it's not only the abundance but the diversity that surprised her. "Using the ROVs to film and collect samples at this scale is simply unprecedented in Australian waters," Wallace said.

    That diversity includes corals that "are much flatter, more plate-like than the branching and domed shapes seen nearer the surface," said Pim Bongaerts of the University of Queensland’s Global Change Institute. "This is the corals responding to the reduced light conditions and spreading out to maximize their exposure to light.

    "So far below the surface, the light is blue because all other parts of the spectrum have been filtered out," Bongaerts added. "It is a monochrome world until you turn on strong lights to reveal amazing, beautiful, fantastic colors."

    Seaview Survey, in partnership with Google, has been capturing 360-degree views of famous coral reefs. NBC's Savannah Guthrie reports.

    The layer of coral just below the shallow reefs could be the key to repairing the reef system.

    It "could provide coral recruits for the upper levels of the reef, providing a potential for them to help in the recovery," Bongaerts said. "At the moment we know little about the extent of larval movements between the shallow and deep reef, but we are seeing species that exist in both zones."

    Related: 'Major decline' in Great Barrier Reef coral
    Related: 360-degree views of Great Barrier Reef

    Bruno was optimistic that nature would play a role in recovery. "The deep water habitats can/will be a sort of refuge," he told NBC News, calling it "a natural source to repopulate shallow habitats that have been more affected by warming, bleaching, disease, storms, etc."  

    Caitlin Seaview Survey

    A starfish sits on storm-damaged coral in shallow waters of Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

    The findings come a month after the Australian Institute of Marine Science reported that the Great Barrier Reef has lost half its shallow-reef coral cover in the last 27 years. 

    The Catlin team, for its part, is planning six more surveys along the 1,600-mile-long reef system. It plans to later study reef systems around the world, using ROVs as well as cameras with 360-degree views. 

    Slideshow: Take a virtual dive

    See dozens of wonders from coral reefs and other exotic seascapes, courtesy of the Catlin Seaview Survey.

    Launch slideshow

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    21 comments

    To me, it just says. The deep sea inhabitants, will be the last to die. I call it, trickle down pollution.

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    Explore related topics: environment, climate-change, global-warming, coral, great-barrier-reef
  • 16
    Oct
    2012
    5:26pm, EDT

    Huge algae bloom off Canada triggered by company's 'fertilization' experiment

    By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

    A 3,800-square-mile algae bloom in the Pacific Ocean off Canada's British Columbia has been traced to a California businessman who promised a local tribe he could help their salmon runs by fertilizing the ocean with iron.


    Follow @NBCNewsWorld

    The Guardian of London reported that Russ George acknowledged that in July his company, the Haida Salmon Restoration Corp., had dropped around 100 tons of ore with traces of iron, calling it the "most substantial ocean restoration project in history."

    "We've gathered data targeting all the possible fears that have been raised" about ocean fertilization, George reportedly added. "And the news is good news, all around, for the planet."

    Planktos, a separate company started by George, has wanted to experiment with ocean fertilization as a way to soak up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But Planktos has been stymied in bids to get government approval for the testing, which, if successful, could position the company to cash in on carbon trading credits aimed at reducing global warming.


    Canada's environment ministry said it was investigating the experiment but would not elaborate.

    Fertilization might be a way to soak up carbon dioxide, but it's also hotly debated among scientists.

    "Some possible effects, such as deep-water oxygen depletion and alteration of distant food webs, should rule out ocean manipulation," John Cullen, an oceanographer at Dalhousie University, told The Guardian. "History is full of examples of ecological manipulations that backfired."

    "It scares me," added Maite Maldonado, a  University of British Columbia researcher who specializes in the impact of trace minerals on ocean life.

    "If you have a massive bloom or growth of this microscopic algae, you might not have enough oxygen in the water column at certain depths," Maldonado told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp.

    The project is 100 times larger than any previous experiment in iron fertilization, she added.

    Moreover, the project might have violated two international resolutions, Kristina Gjerde, an adviser to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, told the Guardian. 

    "The placement of iron particles into the ocean, whether for carbon sequestration or fish replenishment, should not take place, unless it is assessed and found to be legitimate scientific research without commercial motivation," she said. "This does not appear to even have had the guise of legitimate scientific research."

    The Haida nation reportedly put up more than $1 million for the test under the premise that an algae bloom would provide more food for salmon. The test itself was done some 200 miles west of the Haida Gwaii islands.

    "The village people voted to support what they were told was a 'salmon enhancement project'," said the tribe's president, who goes by a single name Guujaaw. 

    Guujaaw said the tribe "would not have agreed if they had been told of any potential negative effects or that it was in breach of an international convention."

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    34 comments

    This is exactly the kind of geoengineering that should scare everyone. We have no idea how iron-saturated waters (or sulfates in the upper atmosphere) will affect the planet. Geoengineering is not the way to 'fix' climate change.

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    Explore related topics: environment, climate-change, global-warming, ocean-fertilization
  • 1
    Oct
    2012
    4:46pm, EDT

    Great Barrier Reef coral seeing 'major decline,' scientists report

    Slideshow: Take a virtual dive

    See dozens of wonders from the Great Barrier Reef and other other exotic seascapes, courtesy of the Catlin Seaview Survey.

    Launch slideshow

    By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

    Calling it the most extensive review of how coral on Australia's Great Barrier Reef is faring, scientists on Monday reported some alarming news: The amount of coral covering reefs there has been cut in half since 1985 and will likely continue to decline unless steps are taken to at least attack the easiest of several factors.

    "We show a major decline in coral cover from 28 percent to 13.8 percent" of the entire system, the experts wrote after reviewing 2,258 surveys of 214 reefs within the marine sanctuary. 

    "Two-thirds of that decline has occurred since 1998," they added.

    John Bruno, a coral expert who was not part of the study, called the findings "really grim" and reflecting loss even higher than deforestation in the tropics, a topic that generally gets much more attention.


    "In 2007, we first sounded the alarm that the Great Barrier Reef, and Pacific reefs in general, were not as pristine and resilient as a lot of people wanted to believe," Bruno, a marine biology professor at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, told NBC News. "But still, this is really shocking to me."

    "This is a really high rate of loss for an entire region," he added. "This is just nuts and it appears to have been sustained over the last five to 10 years. Just mind blowing. I really didn't expect this."

    The researchers estimated that tropical storms, coral predation by crown-of-thorns starfish and coral bleaching accounted for 48 percent, 42 percent and 10 percent of the respective estimated loss in coral cover.

    Dave Gilliam and Liz Larson Nova Southeastern University and James Byrne, The Nature Conservancy discuss the large scale environmental program that is underway in Florida's coral reefs.

    Coral bleaching, whereby coral expels the tiny single-celled algae inside that provide color, is triggered by stress such as warm seas or pollution.

    The experts didn't have much faith in quick actions to counter warming seas, storms and bleaching, but they believe it might be possible to reduce starfish populations.

    They based their hope on evidence that starfish are linked to poor water quality, and the fact that the northern Great Barrier Reef, which has little starfish predation, showed no overall decline. 

    Nutrient-rich waters stimulate plankton, which starfish larvae thrive on, the experts noted, and if fertilizer and other nutrient-rich pollution in the water is cleaned up, starfish populations would decline and coral cover could increase by nearly a percentage point a year, they estimated. 

    "Survival of the plankton-feeding larvae ... is high in nutrient-enriched flood waters, whereas few larvae complete their development in seawater with low phytoplankton concentrations," the experts wrote.

    Bruno, for his part, said the impact of starfish on the reef is "striking," with the carnivores actually eating away at coral. "They are huge and scary beasts," he said, citing outbreaks in which the starfish "move in massive waves down the Great Barrier Reef like a plague."

    Related: 360-degree tours of Great Barrier Reef

    The study's authors predicted that without intervention the coral cover on the reef will probably decline up to 10 percent in the next 10 years.

    They also noted that reducing starfish is a short-term step that can "only be successful if climatic conditions are stabilized, as losses due to bleaching and cyclones will otherwise increase."

    A new report out on the Mesoamerica Reef finds that despite some improvements, more needs to be done to protect the region's coral reefs. Msnbc.com's Dara Brown reports.

    The study by experts at the Australian Institute of Marine Science and the University of Wollongong was published in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    Bruno called the study "a sea change in the attitude" of the institute, a branch of the Australian government, because it had been "resistant to the idea that the Great Barrier Reef was degrading" — even challenging the 2007 study he and a colleague published.

    "Ten years ago nearly everyone assumed, and argued, that due to its isolation, size and huge biodiversity, the Great Barrier Reef had resisted the decay that the rest of the world's reefs had experienced," Bruno added.

    The study follows a report earlier this month estimating coral cover in the Caribbean and Florida Keys has fallen from 50 percent of reef surface area in the 1970s to just 8 percent today.  

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    258 comments

    When the oceans die, it will be the end of life as we know it on planet Earth.

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    Explore related topics: environment, climate-change, global-warming, oceans, coral-reefs
  • 21
    Sep
    2012
    3:05pm, EDT

    Ancient land of 'Beringia' gets protection from US, Russia

    Chukot-TINRO

    Tens of thousands of walruses make their home in Beringia, including these seen last fall at Cape Serdtse-Kamen in Chukotka, Russia.

    By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

    You might have missed it, but the ancient land of Beringia has gotten some extra protection from superpowers Russia and the United States. 

    That's right, Beringia -- 2,800 miles stretching from Siberia, across the Bering and Chukchi seas, through Alaska and into Canada's British Columbia. For thousands of years, Beringia even had a 1,000-mile-long land bridge that emerged when sea level dropped.


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    OK, so it's not an actual nation, but Beringia does have its own heritage of people divided by borders but united culturally -- and a natural kingdom of whales, polar bears, walruses and seals.


     "From the diversity of its Arctic wildlife, both on land and within its waters, to the bounty it provides that sustains cultures on both sides of the U.S.-Russian border, Beringia is home to a kingdom of wildlife and cultural riches, deserving of protection in perpetuity," Cristian Samper, president of the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society, told NBC News.

    "This announcement," he added, "brings us one step closer to that reality."

    Samper was talking about a meeting between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her Russian peer earlier this month, where both nations agreed to work toward "a transboundary area of shared Beringian heritage" by 2013. 

    National Park Service

    That designation would create closer ties between two U.S. national parks -- the Bering Land Bridge Natural Preserve and the Cape Krusenstern National Monument -- with Russia's soon-to-be-designated Beringia National Park.

    "Park managers and researchers from both countries will be able to increase their efforts to conserve this unique ecosystem as well as the cultural traditions and languages of the indigenous people on both sides of the (Bering) strait," Clinton said at the meeting on Sept. 8.

    Even before the announcement, the U.S. National Park Service has had a program since the 1990s to promote Beringia, a term first coined in 1937.

    Bob Gerhard / National Park Service

    Anadyr, the capital of Russia's Chukotka Autonomous Region, is part of Beringia and faces the Bering Sea.

    "As one of the world's great ancient crossroads, Beringia may hold solutions to puzzles about who were the first people to populate North America, how and when they traveled, and how they survived under such harsh climatic conditions," a website dedicated to Beringia reads.


    Watch a video on Beringian petroglyphs.

    The park service program stems from a 1990 announcement by then President George H. W. Bush and Soviet President Mikhael Gorbachev to establish an international park spanning the Bering Strait. 

    A full-fledged international park never came about, in part because of suspicions by native groups. But the new, smaller approach is aimed at easing those concerns.

    Vic Knox / National Park Service

    Native festivals like this one are typical in Anadyr, a city in Russia's autonomous region of Chukotka that is part of the wider region known as Beringia.

    The Wildlife Conservation Society is among the environmental groups excited about stronger cross-border ties. It already has a "Beringia Program" that looks at:

    • How shipping in formerly ice-covered seas will affect marine life and indigenous people who rely on that for food.
    • The threat walruses face from shrinking sea ice, which they rely on to rest while at sea. Less sea ice has led to overcrowding and even walruses crushed to death as they "haul out" by the thousands to rest on beaches.
    • The impacts of human development on birds from around the world that nest and breed in the Arctic tundra.

    Chukot-TINRO

    Scientists are seeing more of these massive "haul outs" by walruses. These were seen last fall on Russia's Cape Serdtse-Kamen, part of the larger Beringia region.

    The organization's "Beringia Program" manager sees the U.S.-Russia effort as keeping recent momentum moving forward. Both native peoples and wildlife, Martin Robards told NBC News, face living "in a region warming at twice the global average, while at the same time, adjusting to a rapid influx of new development interests."

    As for the variety of wildlife, "it's phenomenal," Robards said. "In the fall and spring animals come through the Bering Strait -- whales, polar bears, walruses and seals."

    That wealth makes it easy for Robards to spend his time on Beringia. But getting its importance across to others can be problematic, so having two superpowers raise Beringia's profile is a big plus.

    "It does need explaining at times," he admits.

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    95 comments

    It's about time the U.S. and Russia did something useful and productive together without acrimony and paranoia. Save the environment, you hit the nail on the head on this one.

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  • 19
    Sep
    2012
    5:55pm, EDT

    Arctic sea ice reaches new low, shattering record set just 3 weeks ago

    By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

    New sea ice is finally starting to form again in the Arctic, scientists reported Wednesday, but not before reaching another record low last Sunday. 

    "We are now in uncharted territory," Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said in a statement announcing the record low of 1.32 million square miles -- nearly half the average extent from 1979 to 2010. The extent has been tracked by satellite since 1979.

    "While we’ve long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic," he added, "few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur."


    Many experts expect the Arctic to be free of sea ice in summer at some point between 2015 and 2050.

    "Recent climate models suggest that ice-free conditions may happen before 2050," noted center scientist Julienne Stroeve. But she added the caveat that the recent sudden rate of decline "remains faster than many of the models are able to capture."

    Serreze told NBC News he's figuring on 2030, calling it "a pretty aggressive estimate."

    The sea ice extent numbers come after the center reported last month that the summer sea ice on Aug. 26 had broken the previous record low set in 2007 of 1.61 million square miles. On Aug. 26 the sea ice extent was 1.58 million square miles, it said.

    "We're smashing a record that smashed a record," center scientist Walt Meier said.

    In the 1980s, he said, summer sea ice would cover an area a bit smaller than the Lower 48 states. Now it is about half that.

    A report from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows the Arctic's melting ice is resulting in the lowest sea ice levels since satellites started tracking the measurements in 1979. NBC's Brian Williams reports.

    The difference between this year's low and that of 2007 is 293,000 square miles, about the size of Texas, the center noted in its report.

    Meanwhile, conditions favorable to new sea ice are taking longer to appear.

    "The strong late season decline is indicative of how thin the ice cover is," Meier said. "Ice has to be quite thin to continue melting away as the sun goes down and fall approaches."

    The thickness of the ice is also in decline.

    "The core of the ice cap is the perennial ice, which normally survived the summer because it was so thick", Joey Comiso, a NASA scientist who uses satellites to study the ice, said in a statement. "But because it's been thinning year after year, it has now become vulnerable to melt."

    Related: China eyes mineral treasure in warming Arctic
    Related: Starving female polar bear challenges male in warming sign

    NASA also noted that a strong August storm that formed off Alaska's coast and moved to the center of the Arctic Ocean had an impact on ice levels.

    "The storm definitely seems to have played a role in this year's unusually large retreat of the ice", said NASA scientist Claire Parkinson. "But that exact same storm, had it occurred decades ago when the ice was thicker and more extensive, likely wouldn't have had as prominent an impact, because the ice wasn't as vulnerable then as it is now."

    This year follows several of declining summer sea ice.

    "The six lowest September ice extents have all been in the past six years," Serreze said. "I think that's quite remarkable." 

    The experts also noted that what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay there.

    The warmer Arctic is adding increased heat and moisture into the climate system, said center scientist Ted Scambos. "This will gradually affect climate in the areas where we live," he said. "We have a less polar pole -- and so there will be more variations and extremes."

    The Associated Press contributed to this report.

    More world stories from NBC News:

    • Russia tells US: We don't want your aid money
    • France shutters embassies, schools over new Muhammad cartoon
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    • State Department: No secret plan to invade Canada
    • Early morning fire leaves hundreds homeless in the Philippines
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    327 comments

    We need to (re)elect representatives in government who take this crisis seriously and realize a moral obligation to do what we can as a nation to reverse this disturbing progression.

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  • 13
    Sep
    2012
    1:29pm, EDT

    Warming sign in the Arctic: Starving female polar bear challenges male for food

    A recent voyage by the National Geographic Explorer ship to the Arctic captured a female polar bear fighting a male for food. NBCNews.com's Dara Brown reports on the trip, which allowed experts to evaluate the environmental changes in the Arctic.

    By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

    Wildlife biologist Ian Bullock is a seasoned visitor to the Arctic, but even he was surprised by what he saw last month: a thin female polar bear, shadowed by her cub, trying to challenge a much bigger, stronger male for food.


    Follow @NBCNewsWorld

    It wasn't much of a challenge, but it showed just how desperate she was, Bullock told NBC News on returning from his 10th straight summer cruise to the Arctic.

    That desperation, he feels, stems from the fact that the Arctic's summer sea ice — which polar bears using as floating stations from which to hunt seals — has been shrinking over the last few decades due to a warming Arctic, forcing polar bears into smaller areas and more intense competition. 

    "She was the thinnest female with cub I have ever seen," he said. "She had a single cub which implies she has already lost one other cub this year.

    "If she cannot feed, she cannot suckle her cub; with a hungry cub it is even harder for her to hunt effectively, so from what I saw her last cub is at risk and ultimately so is she," he added. "This is why she was challenging a big male with food. She was hungry enough to take a big risk." 


    In a video filmed during the National Geographic Explorer cruise to the Arctic's Svalbard region, Bullock said it looks like that reduced ice is "really putting the bears under stress."

    "The worst thing is when we've encountered bears, we've found them really packed in tight, in the last little areas of fast ice attached to land, or the last little patches of pack ice at sea," said Bullock, who served as a guide on the cruise ship. "And there they've been in competition."

    Polar bears are listed as "vulnerable" and in decline by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, which estimates the population at no more than 25,000 across the Arctic.

    The U.S., which has two Arctic regions where polar bears live, in 2008 listed its population as "threatened".

    Last year, researchers cited three incidents where polar bears might even have resorted to cannibalism due to warming and reduced sea ice.

    The diminished sea ice also got the attention of the National Geographic Explorer's skipper.

    Captain Leif Skog told NBC News that he had e-mailed his boss, Sven Lindblad of Lindblad Expeditions, to describe "a shocking escalation of the reduction of sea ice."

    One data graph he monitored daily, showing the total volume of Arctic sea ice, "could be called the death spiral of the Arctic sea ice," he said in his e-mail to Lindblad.

    Because of the reduced sea ice, he added, the cruise was able to visit northeast Greenland "a month earlier than what was normal in the past."

    "We expected to face some sea ice but everything was gone in the fjords upon our arrival," he added. "The sea water temperature in the fjords was also unbelievably high."

    Another expert on the cruise called the outside temperature "surprisingly warm." 

    "It was T-shirt weather," Paul Berkman, an environmental science professor at the University of California Santa Barbara, told NBC News. Berkman noted two other major Arctic developments over the summer:

    • The amount of summer sea ice reached its lowest point in 30 years of records.
    • Nearly the entire surface of Greenland's ice cap saw some melting in July, a phenomenon not seen in 150 years of ice records.

    Berkman said the polar regions, and the Arctic in particular, show an "amplified response" to a warming climate ahead of other parts of the globe.

    That response is twofold, he adds: Arctic temperatures have warmed 3-6 degrees F above the global average, and reduced ice removes huge amounts of reflective white from the sea and reveals a dark sea that absorbs heat.

    The sea ice is like "a giant mirror on Earth's surface" he said. "Without summer Arctic sea ice, more heat from the sun is absorbed into the Earth system, which is a feedback that further accelerates warming of our climate."

    More world stories from NBC News:

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    794 comments

    What a shame. I hope they don't go extinct, but they'll certainly inhabit a much smaller area as we go forward.

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    Explore related topics: environment, climate-change, global-warming, explorer, arctic, national-geographic, polar-bears, lindblad-expeditions
  • 7
    Sep
    2012
    4:06pm, EDT

    Coral in Caribbean, Florida in sharp decline, 'no signs of slowing,' report finds

    Florida's coral reefs have been decimated in recent decades. Underwater coral "nurseries" are one approach being used to recolonize coral there.

    By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

    Reefs in the Caribbean and Florida Keys have lost most of the colorful corals that feed a rich ecosystem and made the region a diving and snorkeling mecca, a major conservation group reported Friday. On average, reefs have live coral on just 8 percent of their surface area, down from more than 50 percent in the 1970s.

    Impacts including warming seas and human sewage have contributed to a steady decline that shows "no signs of slowing," the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) said in releasing its report, which was based on new data compiled by 36 experts earlier this year.

    The decline was not uniform, the IUCN noted, and those areas with less human impact fared better. "Corals declined precipitously on the Jamaican north coast in the 1980s ... but not at Curacao and Bonaire where coral has more gently declined to about 25-30% today," the IUCN said in the report.

    In contrast, total coral cover in the Florida Keys, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico "has progressively declined from 25 to 35% in the 1970s to less than 15% today."


    Many of those severely deteriorated reefs instead are covered with large algae, which make it harder for coral to get established, "and virtually no fish larger than" a few inches, the report stated.

    The report cited a number of factors causing the decline: disease, pollution, overfishing, hurricanes and "coral bleaching" — a process triggered by stress such as warm seas or pollution whereby the coral expels the tiny single-celled algae inside it that provide its color.

    The IUCN did not try to weigh the importance of each factor, but some experts voiced their belief that global warming is paramount.

    John Bruno, a University of North Carolina marine biologist who contributed to the new data, told NBC News that a study published last July shows the key driver in the decline is a warming ocean.

    "Our preliminary analysis suggests that the state of Caribbean reefs continues to worsen, primarily due to ocean warming," he said. "To reverse this dire trend, job one is to halt the increase of greenhouse gas emissions."

    Related: Study ties coral crisis to climate change
    Related: Slideshow on threats to coral

    The IUCN released the report at its annual convention and urged nations to step up efforts to reduce fossil fuel reliance, thereby reducing greenhouse gases. It also called on nations with coral reefs in their waters to take several actions:

    • Limit fishing through catch quotas;
    • Create or extend marine protected areas, which provide havens for coral and fish populations to recover;
    • Halt runoff from land of sewage and fertilizers, among other pollutants.

    The impacts on coral must be "immediately and drastically" reduced, said Carl Gustaf Lundin, director of IUCN’s Global Marine and Polar Program, "if coral reefs and the vitally important fisheries that depend on them are to survive in the decades to come."

    More world stories from NBC News:

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    152 comments

    I live in Tampa and grew up in Homestead, Florida. The impact that humans have on our ecosystems have been getting progressively worse for decades. Fertilizer needs to be banned unless a person or farmer tests the soil to see exactly what is needed and then only apply the needed amount. All too ofte …

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  • 27
    Aug
    2012
    6:03pm, EDT

    'A less polar pole': Arctic sea ice at record low

    A report from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows the Arctic's melting ice is resulting in the lowest sea ice levels since satellites started tracking the measurements in 1979. NBC's Brian Williams reports.

    By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

    The amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic has reached a record low in three decades of satellite data, scientists reported Tuesday, with one of them describing recent warm years there as creating a "less polar pole." The decline was expected to continue for at least several more days before cold weather sets in and creates new ice through fall and winter.


    Follow @NBCNewsUS

    The area of Arctic waters covered by sea ice was measured at 1.58 million square miles on Sunday, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported. That's below the previous record low of 1.61 million square miles set on Sept. 18, 2007, and in line with earlier expectations for the season.

    "Including this year, the six lowest extents in the satellite record have occurred in the last six years," the center noted on its website.


     

     

    "Parts of the Arctic have become like a giant Slushee this time of year" due to thinning ice, Walt Meier, a scientist at the center, told reporters.

    That thinner ice also explains how a storm in early August made a significant impact in speeding up the decline this month, Meier said.

    At NASA, which helps with the satellite data, scientist Claire Parkinson said the trend has been "strongly downward."

    This visualization shows the extent of Arctic sea ice on Aug. 26, 2012, the smallest area in three decades of satellite records. The yellow line shows the average minimum summer ice coverage from 1979 to 2010.

    The 2007 decrease "stunned" researchers since it was so large compared to previous years, she said, and "this year it's plummeting" further.

    It's not just sea ice in summer that's been weakened, she added. "No matter what month you're in, it's less ice than it used to be decades ago," she said.

    The researchers added that manmade emissions tied to global warming offer the best explanation for the decline.

    Ted Scambos, a senior NSIDC researcher, told NBC News that no one weather pattern explains the downward trend. "Greenhouse gasses are the only consistent explanation for a persistently warming Arctic," he added.

    "The Arctic was our refrigerator," he said, but the warmer weather of the last five or six years have meant "a less polar pole."

    Scambos said the Arctic system is too variable to guarantee that each future year would show a decline, but over time he expects the decline to continue. "I think we can expect further declines to new records," he said, "and eventually, an ice-free North Pole."

    Oct. 15, 2009: The Arctic Ocean will be an "open sea" almost entirely free from ice within just ten years. Thats the claim by a team of researchers. ITN's Tom Barton reports.

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    1282 comments

    Global warming's a myth. Ask any Republican. They'll tell you it's a scare tactic of the left. Nothing like living with yer head up yer a$$...

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  • 22
    Aug
    2012
    6:00am, EDT

    Migration in the Americas: On the run from water in Panama

    Kadir van Lohuizen / NOOR

    A langouste diver in front of Carti Cohabita. Residents of the island are scheduled to evacuate in August.

    Photojournalist Kadir van Lohuizen traveled from the southern tip of South America to the far reaches of Alaska on the North American continent to explore migration in the Americas. What he found both supported and defied stereotypes, which he reported on a website and an app for iPad called Via Panam.

    Thousands of Kuna — indigenous people living in an archipelago off the northern coast of Panama — are facing a drastic lifestyle change because of rising seas.

    Kuna Yala, or Kuna Land, is comprised of 365 islands and a narrow, 250-mile-long strip of land on the Caribbean coast. Thirty-six of the islands are inhabited.

    In August, the first round of evacuations will force some Kuna to the mainland because of dangerous living conditions, affecting 65 families. Ultimately, all of the islands will be evacuated — affecting 36,000 people — and new dwellings are being built and funded on the mainland by the Panamanian government.

    Kadir van Lohuizen / NOOR

    This family has to evacuate to the mainland in August 2012.

    The inhabited islands are chock full of houses built of reeds and palm leaves and no match for storms and rising water. Historically, flooding was comparatively rare, but residents now regularly contend with surging water.

    Experts say sea levels rose nearly seven inches over the past century, and levels could rise another two feet by the end of this century.

    The Kuna have lived on the Caribbean coast in autonomy for more than 80 years. Two centuries ago, most Kunas lived on the mainland, but they relocated to the islands following an epidemic. They make their living from fishing and farming. They grow manioc, pineapples and bananas in their small fields on the mainland, but their most lucrative crop is coconuts.

    Kadir van Lohuizen / NOOR

    One of the Carti community's two political and spiritual leaders -- and his entourage -- visit the main land where the first 65 houses will be constructed.

    The Kuna form a tight-knit community, have their own language, and are well-organized. Decisions are made collectively in the Onmaked Nega — the assembly hall. Meetings are presided over by a saila, a political and spiritual leader.

    The coming evacuation was debated at the hall, and was eventually approved after long discussion. Many residents are still afraid of being tricked by the state. Because they have no financial resources to build new accommodations for themselves, they ultimately agreed to the evacuation plans.

    Kadir van Lohuizen / NOOR

    Multiple generations of this family live together on one of the islands.

    Slideshow: Migration in the Americas

    K. van Lohuizen / NOOR

    From Colombians fleeing war to North Americans retirees moving to Nicaragua, a photographer's journey from Chile to Alaska explores both the expected and unexpected patterns of migration in the Americas

    Launch slideshow

    Across the water, on the mainland, lies a 4-year-old road — the only one in the vicinity. It used to be a 12-hour walk to reach the Pan American Highway, which connects to Panama City, the country's capital. Now it takes three hours.

    As a result, many of the young Kuna have left for the capital city. Conversely many more consumer goods, like televisions and Coca-Cola, now reach Kuna Yala.

    Experience the entire journey, from Chile to Alaska, by exploring the slideshow at right, the Via Panam website or by downloading the app for iPad.

    More Photoblogs from the Migration in the Americas series:
    Mom works in US while family stays in El Salvador
    US retirees flock to Nicaragua

    Bolivia hopes for windfall from producing lithium for batteries

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    •Sign up for the NBCNews.com Photos Newsletter

    136 comments

    The sea level isn't rising -- the islands are sinking. Rush explained it to me.

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    Explore related topics: world-news, travel, climate-change, immigration, panama, migration, via-panam
  • 31
    Jul
    2012
    5:48pm, EDT

    Greenland again sees widespread melt

    By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

    Just a week after scientists reported with alarm that 97 percent of Greenland had seen ice melting on the surface in mid-July, new data shows that after a brief refreeze much of the massive ice sheet has again seen melt.


    Follow @NBCNewsWorld

    Temperatures again warmed above freezing at key points between July 24-31, according to data provided to NBC News by Konrad Steffen, director of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research.

    Thomas Mote, a climatologist at the University of Georgia at Athens, added that satellite imagery showed that the week peaked on Saturday with 74 percent of the giant ice sheet seeing melt. 


    Typically, about a quarter of the ice sheet has melt on any given day in July, he noted.

    "This event was almost as impressive as earlier this month, but didn't have quite as much melt in the north and northwest," Mote told NBC News.

    "The big issue is simply the total amount of melt going on this summer, as opposed to any one day," he said. "Overall, we've had much earlier-than-normal and more extensive melting on Greenland this summer."

    Like the mid-July melt, this one coincided with an "impressive ridge" of warm air sitting over Greenland, Mote noted.

    Related story: 97 percent of Greenland sees ice melt

    Mote said he's anxious to see satellite data at the end of summer showing any change to Greenland's total ice mass. "I would expect a very large loss of mass from the ice sheet this summer," he said.

    Greenland ice cores do reveal that such thaws have happened every 150 years or so, but the fear now is that it might occur much more frequently due to warming sea and air temperatures. 

    "If we continue to observe melting events like this in upcoming years, it will be worrisome," NASA glaciologist Lora Koenig said last week when the first data were released.

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    32 comments

    It just ain't so cuz the Kochs told me so.

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