News analysis

Published at 4:10 a.m. ET: He has become the world’s biggest bogeyman for many in the West — infamous for calling for Israel to be wiped from the map, describing the Holocaust as "a myth" and, allegedly, seeking a nuclear bomb.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was once almost untouchable at home in Iran — daring even to challenge Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But in recent days he has come under such a severe attack from rivals that some experts now believe he is "finished."

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However, it seems clear that Ahmadinejad will go down fighting "like Scarface" in the words of one analyst.

After two terms, the former Revolutionary Guard must stand down ahead of Iran’s presidential election in June. Ahmadinejad appears to be hoping that a supporter will succeed him in office, enabling him to retain some power.

On Feb. 3, the Iranian parliament crossed a line with Ahmadinejad by dismissing one of his allies, the EAWorldView website reported.

Ahmadinejad went on the attack on the floor of the parliament, threatening to make public one of his secret files he claims to have on his rivals. "Should I tell? Should I tell?" he said, according to a translation on EAWorldView.

The speaker of parliament, the powerful Ali Larijani, called his bluff, saying: "Go ahead." It later emerged that the audio tape that supposedly exposed corruption involving Larijani’s brother Fazel was inaudible. The humiliating episode was broadcast live on Iranian radio.

Professor Scott Lucas, who edits EAWorldView, said he believed Ahmadinejad was effectively "finished."

Once upon a time, the president’s threats had kept his rivals in check. But "what happened this week showed they’re not scared enough to back down," Lucas added.

'Sulked'
Lucas, a professor at Birmingham University in England, said that in addition to making enemies in parliament, Ahmadinejad had flouted Khamenei’s power.

He even tried to take over the Ministry of Intelligence in 2011. "That’s the supreme leader’s domain. He was smacked down for that firmly and then he boycotted his duties. … He went and sulked," Lucas said.

Reza Marashi, research director of the National Iranian American Council, said it was "way too early" to write Ahmadinejad’s political obituary.

"He’s not going to go down without a fight — here’s a guy putting at least some of the regime’s dirty laundry out," he said. "He’s kind of like Scarface at the end of the movie."

Marashi, who worked for four years in the Office of Iranian Affairs at the State Department and was also a political consultant in Tehran, said Ahmadinejad’s exchange with Larijani was meant as only "a warning shot."

"At the end of the day, he knows too much," he added.

The president sparked headlines in the West when he said on Monday — the day after the confrontation in parliament — that he wanted to be an astronaut on the first manned Iranian space flight.

“It was completely missed here [in the West] that that was meant for domestic consumption,” Marashi said.

He said Ahmadinejad was really sending a message to his internal enemies: “You want to take me out … I’m willing to die.”

Former U.S. Ambassador John Limbert, now a professor of international affairs at the U.S. Naval College, was held hostage in Iran with 51 other Americans after Islamist students took over the American Embassy in 1979. During his captivity, he met Khamenei in an encounter that was filmed. 

He is married to an Iranian, is a scholar of Persian poetry and has had connections with the country for some 50 years.

Seeking martyrdom?
Limbert said the deck appeared “pretty much stacked against” Ahmadinejad, but added “you have to say he’s going to go down fighting.”

"There’s a wonderful word in Persian … 'serteq.' It means 'just doesn’t take any crap from anybody,' 'provokes confrontation,' 'rather than walks through a door, bangs his head against the wall,'" Limbert said.

"That’s a word that to me describes him. It's … pejorative, but also there’s a certain admiration for somebody who doesn’t bend," he added.

Limbert said Ahmadinejad might even be trying to provoke his enemies to attempt to unseat him before the election, possibly in the hope of turning himself into a martyr figure.

These internal struggles are likely to hurt efforts to end the standoff between the West and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program before the June election.

Iran insists its program is for peaceful purposes, the West and Israel fear it wants to build a nuclear bomb, a concern that has raised the prospect of airstrikes to take out its nuclear facilities.

But will a new president help or hinder the negotiations? Possible contenders named by several experts were Khamenei's foreign policy advisor Ali Akbar Velayati, former Speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the mayor of Tehran.

Fariborz Ghadar, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, held a vice-ministerial position in the government of the Shah, which was ousted by the revolution that brought the ayatollahs to power. 

He said Ghalibaf had done a "very good job of managing Tehran" and would "be a better manager of the economy than Ahmadinejad was."

But he said he thought Iran’s relations with the West would be "probably the same" if Ghalibaf came to power.

While there might be a temporary boost with the departure of the Holocaust-denying Ahmadinejad, Ghadar feared the Western media would soon turn on Ghalibaf or whoever triumphs in the election. "It will probably be good until we get somebody else totally demonized," he said.

But Ghadar was also not quite prepared to rule out Ahmadinejad’s faction, saying someone might stay quiet until they got through the vetting process to become a presidential candidate, then signal they were sympathetic toward his camp.

The opposition Green movement is currently "out of the picture," Ghadar said, but its supporters might back such a candidate over a strict religious conservative — an unusual alliance given the protests amid Green faction claims that the last presidential election was rigged in Ahmadinejad’s favor.

Whether this is his strategy is unclear.

But, like Marashi, Ghadar also said he believed Ahmadinejad might still have a chance.

"I think Ahmadinejad still has a couple of bullets in his gun," he said, "although they are not as powerful as before."

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HAVANA — Retired leader Fidel Castro voted in Cuba's general election on Sunday and chatted with well-wishers and local reporters in Havana for more than an hour in his first extended public appearance since 2010.

Castro had voted from his home in three previous elections since taking ill in 2006 and ceding power to his brother Raul two years later.

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A stooped, snow-white-bearded Castro, 86, was seen on state-run television as he cast his ballot in the late afternoon, wearing a blue plaid shirt and light blue jacket.

The announcer said Castro talked about efforts to reform the economy, Latin American integration and other matters, including ailing Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

He was heard in a weak voice praising popular participation in Sunday's election.

"The people are truly revolutionary. They have really sacrificed. We don't have to prove it; history will. Fifty years of the (U.S.) blockade and they haven't given in," he said.

Cubans went to the polls to elect a Communist Party-selected slate of 612 deputies to the National Assembly and more than 1,000 delegates to provincial assemblies during a time of change in how they live and work but not in how they vote.

President Raul Castro and other leaders were also shown on television casting their ballots and commenting on the importance of the election as a show of support for reforms and independence from the United States.

Raul Castro is decentralizing the state-dominated economy, allowing more space for private initiatives in agriculture and retail services, and he has lifted many restrictions on personal freedoms, such as travel and buying and selling homes and cars.

He has also introduced term limits (two five-year stints) for top government posts, but he has drawn the line at legalizing other political parties and contested elections.

Ted Piccone, deputy director of foreign policy at the Washington think tank the Brookings Institution, said Raul Castro's policies provide interesting insights for observers of the government, which continues to have a tense relationship with the United States.

"The one-party elections in Cuba, alongside steady but slow progress on opening the economy, represent how the current regime intends to manage change on the island -- giving the people more space to participate in the economy while controlling their role in politics and civic life," Piccone said. 

Some 95 percent of Cuba's 8.7 million residents over 16 years of age were expected to cast ballots with polling stations on just about every block. Abstention is frowned upon.

'All revolutionaries'
Reuters talked with more than half a dozen voters before they entered the polls in Havana. None of them knew the candidates on the national slate from their districts.

"What's certain is they are all revolutionaries and that's what matters," said retiree Eduardo Sanchez.

"I vote because I feel I have to, and it doesn't really matter because the deputies have no power anyway," said one young woman, who declined to give her name.

The curious read biographies of candidates posted at the polls, then cast paper ballots in cardboard voting boxes guarded by school students.

Others simply entered the polls and checked a box for the entire slate.

The candidates were equal to the number of positions up for a vote, the only alternative being to not vote for a certain candidate or leave blank or spoil the ballot.

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Seemingly overnight, the moderate Islamic cleric and Canadian émigré Tahir-ul Qadri, whose massive protest forced Pakistan’s government to agree to major concessions on Thursday, has risen from obscurity to become a force to be reckoned with in Pakistani politics.

Until this week, local TV anchors and headlines did not scream his name, as they do now. His face was not plastered on rickshaws and lampposts, nor on signs carried by the 50,000 people who followed him to a sit-in, camp-out, anti-government protest in the cold and rainy streets of Islamabad, where they remain, celebrating his negotiated agreement with government representatives.

But the 62-year-old Qadri landed squarely at the center of Pakistan's latest political crisis, which saw a population desperate for change and frustrated by leaders long-accused of corruption and ineptitude seize upon his message of free, fair elections and accountability at the highest levels.

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Qadri, who only returned to his homeland in late 2012, had demanded the immediate dissolution of the current government and sweeping reforms to guarantee free and fair national elections, which are expected to be held this spring. He agreed to something less in Thursday's declaration, signed after hours-long, closed-door discussions with government representatives. The deal calls for the dissolution of the current government before March 16, with elections to take place within 90 days, and a pledge to enforce Pakistan's Constitution regarding the eligibility of political candidates. 

Despite denying having any political ambitions, Qadri made himself a part of the political process by stipulating in the declaration that meetings to discuss Pakistan's Election Commission make-up would be held at his office's headquarters and that his own political party -- the Pakistan Awami Tehreek -- would help select a caretaker prime minister. 

Lahore-based defense analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi said that Qadri fell short of his aims.

"His assessment was that as he raises populist demands, other groups and parties will fall in line and he will become the undisputed and popular leader of Pakistan. This did not happen," Rizvi said. "However, the federal government in Islamabad has become hostage, because he has brought huge number of his followers to Islamabad, making it impossible for the government to take any action against him."

Still, for a country built on a feudal mentality, where political loyalties are handed down over generations like family heirlooms, Qadri’s accomplishments are no small feat.

So how did he do it? One former government official, who attended a Qadri rally this week, heard him address the crowd, and spoke to those in attendance, called that "the million dollar question."

"This chap .. he comes here and he holds a huge public meeting in Lahore, which is very well organized and very well-attended, and then this enormous march to Islamabad?" wondered the official, who spoke with NBC News on condition of anonymity. "How did this happen? Who's supporting him? It's a mystery to me." 

Professor C. Christine Fair, who teaches at Georgetown University and studies Pakistan, calls Qadri's sudden emergence on the national stage "theater,” and suspects the country’s powerful military helped to engineer the cleric’s return and organize his massive protest.

"If this came out of civil society, he'd be universally lauded,” she said. “The reason he's not is that a lot of people think he's got an invisible hand behind him. This isn't Pakistani civil society saying enough is enough. It's something else."

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For the last seven years, Qadri has by all accounts led a quiet life in Toronto, where he immigrated with his wife and children. But he'd made a name for himself in certain Pakistani circles much earlier. 

In the mid-1980s, early in the presidential tenure of Gen. Zia-ul-Haq, the young Qadri was already a known quantity in the corridors of power.

According to a former government official, Qadri was one of a handful of Islamic scholars called in to present his views on how a proper Islamic state should function to Zia -- who came to power in 1977 in a military coup and launched the Islamization of Pakistan -- and his cabinet. Whether or not his input was used is unclear, but he left an impression -- that of a confident, moderate, articulate young scholar who was incredibly knowledgeable on Islam. 

His early political career in Pakistan, however, was brief and largely forgettable. He founded the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) political party in 1989, listing education as its top priority and promising to revive "the faith of the masses in politics, elections and the government." Qadri briefly held office as a member of parliament during the military dictatorship of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, from 2002 until he resigned in protest in 2004. One local report at the time quoted him as saying that Musharraf had reduced parliament's power to "a rubber stamp." 

"I don't feel that I should sit in such a powerless parliament which can be suspended with a single stroke of a general's pen," he told Pakistan's Daily Times at the time. 

But after leaving the political arena, Qadri succeeded in developing an international network and loyal following in religious and social circles. In 1981, he established an organization called Minaj-ul-Quran International (MQI), founded to promote "true Islamic teachings and philosophy" for those "dissatisfied with the existing religious institutions and organizations and their narrow-minded approach," according to the group's website. 

The MQI manifesto espouses, "Love, peace, harmony, universal brotherhood, justice, equity and prosperity," and boasts a registered membership of 280,000 worldwide. The organization claims to be operating in more than 90 countries, including operating 69 educational and cultural centers in Pakistan, and 600 schools educating 170,000 students across the country. A social welfare and disaster relief sister organization was added in 1989, which the website says has delivered aid to victims of "the Tsunami affecting Indonesia; the Bam earthquake, Iran; the South Asian earthquake in Pakistan, as well as various developments and educational projects in Pakistan and other underprivileged countries."

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After founding MQI, Qadri appears to have spent years trying to be heard and cultivating his public image. He wrote books (1,000 of them, according to his website, of which 43 have been published), delivered lectures (5,000 total, 1,500 of which are available for purchase on CD or DVD at MQI sale centers "around the world"). His message and achievements are cross-published and highlighted on multiple websites, including those of his Islamic organization, his political party and his personal site. 

But it wasn't until March 2010 that he strode onto the international stage. Qadri wrote and published a 500-page “fatwa,” or Islamic decree, "to place the Islamic stance on terrorism precisely in its proper perspective before the Western and Islamic worlds." The document, which is available for download in four different languages, lays out Quranic laws prohibiting terrorism and the killing of others in the name of Islam. At the time, nine years into the West's "War on Terror," his unequivocal language condemning terrorist acts set him apart from most Muslim scholars, and the world took note. His fatwa won praise from the U.S. State Department, drew international news coverage and made Qadri a sought-after speaker on the international circuit. 

In November 2010, he came to Washington, D.C., and delivered a lecture at Georgetown University's Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding. He spoke at the United States Institute of Peace that same month about the struggle against radicalism in Islam. He traveled to England and Australia to discuss terrorism and integration. But back in Pakistan -- where gas prices ballooned, power shortages proliferated and terrorism intensified -- Qadri remained a non-player. 

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But while he enjoyed success in his adopted country, Qadri's home country was in precipitous decline. 

The International Monetary Fund last year issued a dismal report on Pakistan's deteriorating economy, citing "deep seated and structural problems and weak macroeconomic policies" that have led to low GDP growth and a drain of foreign exchange reserves. Terrorist attacks have killed tens of thousands of Pakistanis and left the country teetering on the precipice of security chaos. A 2012 Gallup survey revealed President Asif Ali Zardari's performance ratings had plummeted and that 87 percent of Pakistanis believed the country was headed in the wrong direction. Power struggles between the military, judiciary and ruling government persisted, preventing legislators hell bent on maintaining their posts from turning their full attention to the nation's needs. 

Many thought the answer to the country's ills lay with former cricketer-turned-presidential-candidate Imran Khan. His self-proclaimed "tsunami" of supporters, inspired by his reputation as an outsider determined to change the system, set attendance records at his rallies, and gave Pakistan's notoriously rough-and-tumble journalists someone to cast as the political dark horse. But the candidate of change lost some of his shine in the Fall of 2012, when he began cherry-picking senior members of the same political parties he was criticizing for his leadership team. One senior adviser, Shireen Mazari, resigned from his party in protest in September. In her resignation letter, she accused Khan of trading his original ideals for “traditional ‘electables.’”

For a country seeking salvation, Qadri, free from the confines of political process, checks the boxes that others in the current cast of characters in Pakistani politics cannot. 

"Who are the other people to be supported?" asked one former government official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity. "They are maybe not as incompetent and corrupt (as the current government leaders), but they are very good runners-up."

Qadri's message, on the other hand, has been simple and consistent. 

He has demanded free, fair and transparent elections in a country where political patronage is often bought. He's demanded that political candidates meet the constitutional requirements for candidacy, such as paying their taxes. A recent investigation by Pakistani journalist Umar Cheema found that fewer than one-third of Pakistan's members of parliament file annual tax returns, including president Zardari. 

Rizvi says Qadri's support is borne of "widespread alienation" in Pakistan, and is in reaction to the poor performance by the federal and provincial governments. 

PhotoBlog: Declaring victory from behind bulletproof glass

But professor Fair believes Qadri's quick rise has all the hallmarks of Pakistan's powerful military, which has historically worked to influence policy and force political turnover -- both behind the scenes and through direct intervention. Though the military leadership has publicly taken a backseat during power struggles playing out before national elections, she believes it is privately pulling strings to prevent the same government officials from winning a majority, and to keep its hand in the game.

"They know that Pakistanis will not tolerate a direct military intervention. And this is (going to be) the second peaceful transition where parliament serves out its full term in Pakistan," Fair said of the military leaders. "Every time it happens, it makes it more difficult for the army to intervene. I don't think the intention is to overthrow the government -- it's to weaken the PPP (ruling party) before elections."

In an interview this week with NBC News, Qadri lambasted the current government as a "total failure," but insisted his goal was to reform, not topple it.

"We want to eradicate our political process and electoral process from might, money and manipulation," he said. "We want true democracy in place.”

He vehemently denied any support from Pakistan's military, or from external forces, as has been speculated in the local press, calling it "a false accusation," and "disinformation."

Now that he has the ear of the country and its leaders, it's unclear what Qadri will do next. 

Under the agreement signed Thursday, he has a role to play in the lead-up to elections. And while he insists he holds no political ambitions, that doesn't stop him from comparing himself to the elected-leader of the United States when asked what he stands for.

"I would say my slogan is like the slogan of Obama in America," he said. "He stood for change. If Americans accepted the slogan of change and voted for him, why not the same change? Democratically formed, the change in the corrupt system, why not the same change, democratically, peacefully should come in Pakistan?” 

NBC's Wajahat S. Khan and Fakhar Rehman in Islamabad, and Mushtaq Yousafzai in Peshawar, contributed to this report.

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BEIJING — Huang Annian cast his vote this week in his sixth straight U.S. presidential election. But his vote has never been counted. 

Huang, a retired professor of American history at Beijing Normal University and a Chinese national who has been casting ballots at U.S. election parties in China for about 25 years, said the Obama-Romney race was especially significant.

“This year was a very important election,” Huang told NBC News from the American Embassy’s party on Wednesday morning, Beijing time. “The most important issue China and the U.S. will face is whether they develop together or tear each other down.”

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Hosted by organizations like the American Chamber of Commerce and the American Embassy, the events usually include a mock ballot that allow Chinese nationals to cast a vote. 

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That this celebration of American democracy was coming on the eve of a critical, once-a-decade leadership change in China’s ruling Communist Party was not lost on the attendees.  It served to contrast the rowdy American election that risked overwhelmed viewers worldwide with too much information, with China’s crucial transfer of power, which has been shrouded in secrecy.

‘I voted’
Past “election” events have been relatively lavish affairs complete with fully catered breakfasts at Western-brand hotel chains.  This year’s was more modest. The 400-plus guests – about 100 Chinese nationals, the rest Americans working in China – were only offered light snacks: muffins, cookies and fruit to go with their coffee. A reflection, maybe, of the austere times the American government is experiencing.

Suspicion of US rife as White House contenders batter China

Still, there were abundant signs of celebration – balloons festooned the hotel ballroom and TVs were setup with videos that explained how elections in the United States work and what it means to Americans. Chinese guests who participated in the vote appeared to enjoy the pageantry of voting – going into the booth, filling out the ballot and sliding it into the ballot box.

By the end of the day many of them were gathering around the booths for photos, “I voted” pins proudly displayed on their jacket lapels.

Among them was Huang.

Huang, a self-described American politics junkie in his 70s who blogs regularly about the U.S. elections, was among the first to arrive. Accompanied by his wife, who has attended every one of the election events with him, the two cheerfully marched up to the voting booths when voting opened.

In the past Huang has cast “winning” votes for the likes of Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush.  

This year? His vote went to the eventual winner, Barack Obama, who won over 150 of the 200 ballots cast at the mock election.

All smiles upon exiting the booth, Huang urged embassy staff to invite him and his wife to the 2016 event.

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But he had a more serious message too, urging collaboration, not competition between the countries.

“There will be many more conflicts between China and the U.S., but there will be more cooperation as well because the two countries are codependent,” he said. “China cannot continue to develop without the United States and the U.S. cannot remain on top without China.”

Indeed, when the euphoria of his re-election passes, Obama will face a barrage of issues that will challenge the Sino-US relationship.  These range from concerns about trade imbalances that American trade officials say allow China to undercut U.S. competitiveness to Beijing’s concerns about the true intention of the Obama administration’s “pivot” back to the Asia-Pacific region.

Much at stake for US as tensions rise in troubled China Seas

Despite the tensions between the two countries, Obama appears to have been the choice of officials and academics who attended the party.

Neither candidate would have significantly altered the direction of the Sino-U.S. relationship, and Obama provided familiarity and comfort born from experience, professor He Xingqiang told NBC News.

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“I think both China and the U.S. want to keep stable relations,” the associate professor at the Institute for American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences told NBC News after Obama’s victory was announced.

“If Obama gets reelected, he can continue his China policy,” he said. “ If Romney got elected, no big problem for China-U.S. relations, but a little trouble … because Romney has said some tough words about China.”

NBC News’ Johanna Armstrong and Le Li contributed to this report.

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