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  • 12
    Apr
    2012
    9:34am, EDT

    NBC News' space expert answers questions about North Korea's satellite launch

    The five-day window for the launch of a North Korean rocket mounted with an observation satellite opened Thursday as the rest of the world waits to see if Pyongyang will defy international warnings and go ahead with the controversial mission.

    NBC News is in North Korea to observe the launch with space expert James Oberg. With a 22-year career as a space engineer in support of NASA’s spaceflight operations, Oberg has the experience and technical expertise to determine the veracity of North Korea’s claims about this mission.

    Oberg answered reader questions for an hour earlier today. The questions and answers were extremely engaging and informative.
    Click below to replay the chat.


    Read some of Oberg's reports on North Korea's space program:

    What happens if North Korea's satellite fails?

    North Koreans desperate for Western approval of launch

    North Korea's 'unconvincing' answers to satellite questions

    NBC space expert on North Korea satellite launch: 'It's not a military missile...but it's darn close'

    12 comments

    Did you miss the chat? We'll be talking about North Korea on the Weekly Space Hangout: http://cosmoquest.org/Hangouts/ ... It's just a few space scribes sitting around talking, and I'm afraid none of us are logging in from North Korea. But it is real-time video and chat. We'll also be talking about  …

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    Explore related topics: satellite, north-korea, rocket, featured, missile-launch, james-oberg
  • 11
    Apr
    2012
    3:46pm, EDT

    North Koreans desperate for Western approval of launch

    The country's satellite is poised to launch to commemorate the 100th birthday of Kim Il-sung, but there are some doubts over whether it will ever go into orbit. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

    By Ed Flanagan, NBC News Producer

    PYONGYANG, North Korea – With just one day before North Korea’s expected controversial satellite launch to commemorate the 100th birthday of “Great Leader” Kim Il-sung, the government invited journalists to view its Mission Control – the nerve center where the rocket and satellite will be monitored and guided from.

    Coming after a press conference the day before, this was likely our last preview of preparations before launch. It was important because it gave us a critical view of the real operators of the satellite. 

    Following the visit, NBC News sat down with 22-year NASA Mission Control veteran and NBC space consultant James Oberg to discuss what he learned from this visit and his expectations for the launch.

    First off, what were your impressions of the Control Center? Was it as you expected it to be?
    It looked like a real control center – from the outside as well as the inside. First the communications links – two communications domes and a pretty hefty antenna farm on top of the hill – looked real, and inside the displays appeared logical and made sense to me.

    Digitalglobe / via AFP - Getty Images

    This DigitalGlobe satellite image obtained April 11, 2012, shows an image of the Tongchang-ri Launch Facility in North Korea. This image was taken April 9, 2012.

    One difference: There was a big sign outside the building here that I found out didn’t actually say Mission Control Center; instead, it said, “Everyone follow the leadership of the Great General.”


    The director of the center made a short speech and then specifically called for you to come to the front of the press scrum to witness everything. What was that like for you?
    It was certainly flattering, but clearly also an attempt at manipulation because he asked me to endorse his claim that the satellite launch was peaceful. Still, I recognized it as a gesture of respect for the American space program, for which I am the only representative to have ever visited the North Korean space program, though completely unauthorized officially by NASA.

    For a while there, it seemed like there were as many North Korean cameras focused on you as foreign ones. Did you expect all that attention today?
    No, I didn’t. But when you think about it and realize how desperate the North Koreans are for the appearance of Western approval, they’re bound to look for it wherever they can get it. Just the presence of this press corps, not just me, is interpreted as a sign of foreign respect for the program.

    Some might view your presence at the launch center as a convenient propaganda prop for their claims. How do you respond to that?
    They certainly felt it was. But I was able to use the visibility to raise some questions they had not yet answered to my satisfaction. I stressed that the boasted transparency of the North Koreans was nowhere near complete and that we didn’t have reliable insight into what was under the nose cone of that rocket.

    The director joked about letting one journalist ride on the rocket. I told him that photographs of the installation of the satellite would be enough to dispel lingering suspicions, including in my own mind. He promised to provide them, but I’m not holding my breath.

    One of your primary questions over the last couple of days has been how soon after launch would we start to receive radio signals from the satellite to confirm its success. Do you feel you got an adequate answer on that?
    Absolutely. The director gave an answer that was totally consistent with my own calculations that it might be up to 12 hours before they get a good solid communications link with the satellite.

    In the meantime, he enthusiastically agreed that amateur radio listeners around the world should try to pick up the signal, which he assured us would be broadcast continuously. Of course, it’s to their advantage that a foreign expert confirm the first proof of the satellite’s successful launch since controversy remains over the success of their [previous] satellite launch, which they still insist was successful against all other evidence.

    At one point you asked where the equivalent of your old console would be in the control room and he pointed to the orbital information station in the room, a station you manned for many years. That was pretty impressive.
    Yeah, I got a kick out of that. But it’s too bad I couldn’t talk to the actual operator. Because there are still interesting – to me, at least – questions about some third-stage rocket steering maneuvers they seem to need during launch to get into their target orbit. We could have had a real geek-level conversation that would have blown the interpreter’s mind.

    NBC’s Richard Engel, as well as other Western journalists, continued to ask North Korean officials about the military application of these rockets, but the answers were at times exasperated and sometimes sarcastic. What do you make of it?
    We’re really engaged in dual disconnected monologues here, not a real conversation. The North Koreans don’t seem to understand foreign objections and act as if their pure ideological correctness deserves worldwide obedience. They’ve dug themselves deep into the true-believer’s self-delusion that disagreement is caused by stupidity and malice, a bad habit that isn’t restricted to this corner of the world. In the West we have a hard time understanding how genuinely crazy so many North Korean projects – such as this satellite – really may be. 

    But isn’t political single-mindedness a plus for advancing a difficult effort such as space exploration?
    It might seem so at first, but I’m beginning to worry that the opposite is more likely to turn out to be true.  An effective safety culture in space, or any other high-tech field, demands disobedience and independent thinking from people who detect real problems that require real solutions.

    But the official North Korean reaction to difficulties looks like resorting to appeals for divine inspiration from their infallible leadership so they can bully reality to “fit” their intentions. I can’t detect any indications of the necessary kind of critical problem-solving and that’s a bad sign.

    Space programs infected by such a pathological culture, whether Soviet-era or NASA pre-Challenger [and pre-Columbia] era, or today’s North Korea, are doomed to encounter major setbacks.  As the bumper sticker warns, when it comes to human fallibility, “Man forgives, God forgives, Nature – never.”

    This visit was likely the last satellite-related site we’ll visit before the launch itself. Any final thoughts before we begin the wait for launch time?
    Opening these facilities to outside observers still strikes me as a bold and risky tactic, which I welcome. We may be able to utilize it for the good.

    As the old song wisely observes, the North Koreans may not get what they WANT from this gambit – foreign approval. But they may get what they NEED – better foreign insight into their motives and decision-making. And that could make it all worthwhile.

    Also for radio enthusiasts around the world, this could be your day to shine. The first people who will get a crack at catching the North Korean hymns the satellite will play to honor Kim Il-sung will be those in Western Australia 20 minutes after launch. About an hour after launch, the Eastern seaboard of the United States will be able to listen in.

    Radio enthusiasts hoping to listen to catch the sounds from the satellite can tune into 479MHz. North Korean officials say they will play music continuously on that frequency.

     

     

    140 comments

    N. Korea should focus on automating farming and feeding her people.

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  • 10
    Apr
    2012
    3:20pm, EDT

    N. Korea's 'unconvincing' answers to satellite questions

    David Guttenfelder / AP

    Ryu Kum Chol, deputy director of space exploration in the Department of Space Technology of North Korea, speaks to the international media in Pyongyang, North Korea on Tuesday.

    By Ed Flanagan, NBC News Producer

    PYONGYANG – Officials from North Korea’s Space Technology Committee held a special press conference for journalists today in the capital, Pyongyang. Among the topics discussed: Ongoing questions regarding the possible arming of North Korea’s rockets and the country’s new five-year plan for space.

    NBC News sat down after with 22-year NASA veteran and NBC Space Consultant James Oberg to talk about what we learned from this press conference and what questions remain.

    Q: What questions did you have coming into this press conference with the North Korea Space Technology Committee?
    A: Perhaps the most interesting one for me was how soon after launch they’ll have success or failure in the form of a radio signal from the satellite. The North Koreans said they couldn’t answer that one.

    That puzzled me because the primary responsibility of flight control is knowing when to expect indicators of success or failure like receiving a radio signal. Maybe they were just officials and not workers who care about the details.

    The other burning question for me was when the satellite was actually going to be loaded onto the rocket and what else might be underneath the payload shroud [nose cone of the rocket]. What they’ve told us about the payload is only about 25 percent of what we think a rocket can actually carry.

    They’ve pulled back so much of the secrecy – which is nice – that leaving this one area of secrecy almost underscores the mystery: Is there anything else under that nose cone.


    Q: Did you have these questions answered?
    A: They gave me answers, but the easy proof for their answers, which would be pictures of them loading the satellite, we haven’t seen. I didn’t ask today, but I want to ask for the drawings of the satellite in orbit to see how the solar panels on the satellite unfold or if they do at all.

    In regards to the timing of the radio signal and how other radio amateurs around the planet could help detect these signals, they said they would answer tomorrow [North Korean officials told journalists they would be able to visit the Payload Control Center in Pyongyang Wednesday].

    I didn’t expect any usable answers, so I didn’t bother to ask about the possible military value of the rocket, but many journalists did.

    The only thing we found out from the North Korean answers was how sloppy and unconvincing their protestations of innocence were. It doesn’t make them guilty of having a weapons-related intent, but they missed the opportunity to convincingly refute that global concern.

    North Korean space officials say they will go along with a planned rocket launch this week.  NBC's Richard Engel reports.

    NBC's Richard Engel answers reader questions from North Korea

    Q: If you were a North Korean official today, how would you have handled the outside suspicion of this satellite launch actually being a ballistic test?
    A: I would have anticipated exactly that question and prepared an answer that was credible to skeptical experts instead of to their obedient public. For me credible is not just 90 percent transparency, but 100 percent.

    The persistence of non-transparent aspects of this launch process seems unnecessary if there is nothing to hide. All it does is fan suspicions rather than soothing them.

    Q: Anything surprising or big revelations for you from this press conference?
    A: No technical surprises for me. But I was dismayed that when confronted with questions regarding previous satellite launch failures, their officials loyally proclaimed they were successful despite all independent evidence to the contrary. The officials had a chance to walk away from the question, but instead twice confronted it with assertions that the rest of the world’s space experts consider false.

    NBC's Richard Engel visits a state-run apple orchard, a breeding house for turtles and an apple juice factory.

    In my mind this is no way to encourage trust. As someone who is here to judge the credibility of the North Korean’s statements, I was ready to look forward and not back at previously discredited propaganda claims. But they just couldn’t let them go and so it weighed heavily in my own assessment of their credibility and in any future statements they make without strong evidence. 

    The other big revelation for me was that the North Koreans said they are planning to work on a more sharp-eyed earth observation satellite next.

    Q: Let’s talk about that. The North Koreans announced a new five-year plan that included, as you said, an improved observation satellite and also a stunning declaration that they were actually developing a larger rocket. What did you make of these new announcements and how important are they?
    A: They gave a plausible explanation for their focus on earth observation satellites, which was due to a series of environmental disasters beginning in the mid-1990s. But this first satellite seems almost too little, too late to be of much help when one considers you can get the same data this satellite could provide for cheaper and sooner from commercial services.

    The larger rocket is also consistent with their announced intention to launch satellites for other countries. Rocket launch services are one of the few things North Korea can export that the rest of the world wants. Unfortunately, the Russians already dominate that portion of the space market and they won’t likely yield customers easily.

    As for the military threat of any of North Korea’s rockets, including this hypothetical new one, you have to realize that even having only a handful of weaponized versions of these rockets would be intolerable to other countries like the United States.

    But in defense of the North Korean’s current rocket, they have spelled out characteristics that a non-threatening rocket should have. Now they have to live up to those standards that they themselves have set. 

    Q: Is this particular mission a logical step for a first satellite? 
    A: I’ve come to realize that it is. The North Koreans have given a reasonable justification for the kind of mission they say this satellite is performing. They are still building a rocket that seems bigger than they need and are spending more time and effort than if they had sought outside help, but their governmental ideology has once again trumped practicality.

    We’re still not sure if this launch isn’t doing other undisclosed experiments, including those associated with future weaponization and they have not provided enough transparency to eliminate that possibility.

    Q: In our previous discussion after you visited the Sohae launch site, you expressed reservations about the authenticity of the satellite. Does this press conference change any of your views on the matter?
    A: The press conference not so much, but I’ve done some online research and consultations with associates around the world and I’m now satisfied that what they showed us is within the realm of possibility of a plausible design.

    My other concern about the late installment of the satellite onto the rocket was directly addressed with an entirely plausible answer: They didn’t even realize they were out of step with standard practice. They simply did not how other space agencies schedule that type of installation. When the North Koreans say they didn’t realize how other countries did it, I can believe it.

    Q: Have the North Korean’s explanation about the peaceful application of the satellite changed your view about the potential weaponization of this missile?
    A: No, just carrying a peaceful satellite does not negate the weaponization potential of the carrier rocket. They seem to think that having a peaceful satellite makes them immune to all charges of weaponization, but it doesn’t. The rocket science says this booster design retains weapons potential regardless of what you put on top of it.

    More from msnbc.com and NBC News:

    • Syria shells Hama on cease-fire deadline day
    • Amid Iran tensions, neighbor becomes den of spies
    • A rare peek inside North Korea
    • Tunnel linked to looming North Korea nuclear test? South Korea thinks so
    • Leftist rebels kidnap natural gas workers in Peru

    Follow us on Twitter: @msnbc_world

     

    64 comments

    Science is neither good nor bad, it is simply knowledge. How that knowledge is utilized is up to those in control of it, and their moral and ethical values. Whether it is rocket science (N. Korea) or nuclear science (Iran), how they are used is up to those in power, and their track records are not e …

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  • 9
    Apr
    2012
    12:28pm, EDT

    NBC space expert on North Korea satellite launch: 'It's not a military missile ... but it's darn close'

    South Korean intelligence officials say North Korea may be preparing for a third underground nuclear test. The possible test comes at the same time as North Korea is poised to launch a satellite. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

    By Ed Flanagan, NBC News Producer

    When we learned that North Korea was planning on opening its tightly restricted Sohae Satellite Launching Center to foreign journalists for the first time, NBC News quickly decided we would need an expert eye to determine the accuracy and authenticity of Pyongyang’s claim that this latest rocket launch was for peaceful scientific purposes.

    North Korea says it is planning to launch a weather observation satellite using a three-stage rocket during mid-April to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. But the United States and South Korea say it is a test of a ballistic missile.

    So NBC News invited James Oberg, our “Space Consultant,” to accompany us into North Korea to view the Kwanggmyongsong-1 satellite.

    With a 22-year career as a space engineer in support of NASA’s spaceflight operations, Oberg has the experience and technical expertise to determine the veracity of North Korea’s claims about this mission.

    NBC sat down with Oberg after visiting the Sohae Satellite Launch Center on Sunday to get his initial impressions of the facility, the mysterious satellite and the future of North Korea’s space program.


     

    Q.  What are your first impressions from this visit to Sohae?
    A: It was just amazing to be there, and the impression was that someone in the North Korean government made a very courageous decision to let us in.

    Q. Going into this, you said you had a couple of standards you were looking for in this satellite that would in your mind, settle whether it was real. What were they?
    A: I expected the satellite to be in a clean room; a clean environment free of dust, smudges and things. I expected the satellite to probably be already mounted on the third stage [hardware that connects to the booster] and ready to move out to the launch pad. I expected the satellite to have a reasonable design; it should follow standard designs, like power and solar panels and so forth. I was really surprised by what we saw.

    Inside North Korea: Closely watched launch poses risks

    Q. So did this satellite pass muster?
    A: The satellite did not meet the expectations I had. I have to ask myself whether these expectations may have been too narrow, but at the same time it raised questions in my mind as to how real what we were being shown was. We asked whether this was a mock-up; in fact, we kept on asking them again and again because they insisted this was a real satellite.

    The problem is the North Koreans didn’t just let us in [to the same room as the satellite], they let us get much too close. I could’ve walked three steps and poked it with my finger. But I didn’t want to put grease and smudges on the outside because it could lead the device to overheat in space or it could change a lot of things about the electro-static environment.  So you need to protect the satellite from contamination – from touching, from people breathing on it, sneezing on it. And we were all coming in covered in dust after a long road trip. They didn’t protect the satellite from any of that.

    Maybe the satellite is built to be rugged; maybe they don’t care. We’ll find out if they launch it, if it works or not.

    Q. Talk about your first impressions of the satellite. Was there anything surprising about the satellite to you?
    A: I thought at first it was a model. I thought it was a symbolic representation. I couldn’t believe it was flight hardware. I couldn’t believe it was the one being launched in a few days.

    It’s certainly not a design I’ve seen much before.  Right now, I’m curious about how the satellite was designed. I think perhaps they were worried we would be interested because until today they had not released a photograph or even a drawing of it. They kept its configurations a secret. Maybe it’s because they realized it was going to puzzle people.

    Q. Talk about the significance of this launch. Why is it important?
    A: This is a very significant launch because of the publicity on it. It’s going to be much harder to fake it if something does go wrong. But we should be prepared to accept a launch abort or a mission failure in a mature way, because that’s what happens to space powers when they start their program.

    The significance of the launch, of course, is the booster itself. The booster is bigger than it has to be. It’s based on Han missiles. It’s not a military missile … but it’s darn close. Like we’ve said on TV, this rocket is not a weapon, but it’s maybe 98 percent of one.

    It can be converted all too easily and all too frighteningly into a weapon, and they don’t need it. They don’t need a booster of this size, of this cost, to launch a satellite they say they want to. They seem to be overdoing it, and that can hurt a country, not help it.

    For example, the Russians were seriously involved in building similar projects like their own Buran space shuttle just to compete and show off to the West. And they contributed significantly to bankrupting their own intellectual potential and real budgets in the 1980s as [the Soviet Union] was grinding to a halt.

    They didn’t go bankrupt because of the Buran project, but it did symbolize the wasteful spending that they were doing based on merely show-off projects. Those lessons should be taken to heart in a rational -- hypothetically rational -- North Korean regime.

    Q: In your opinion, what are some of the problems the North Koreans face in launching this satellite?
    A: The North Koreans face scheduling pressures as they have stated publicly already that they will launch it in time for a national holiday, and not just any holiday, one of the most profound national holidays in the country’s history [the 100th birthday of North Korea’s founding leader, Kim Il Sung]. That kind of pressure has frequently led to disaster in other countries’ programs.

    So I think the odds of them actually successfully launching is a real toss-up. I wouldn’t want to put a number on it, but in my opinion it’s significantly in doubt that they’ll get this thing into orbit. And then, once it’s in orbit, I think it’s significantly in doubt that they can make it work. But they’re going to try, and they’ve chosen to do it in the full glare of publicity.

    But I think they need to be rewarded for making that decision. It doesn’t mean that we have to believe everything they have said, but we should at least pay some attention to it. It is a very dynamic situation because of the North Koreans' unprecedented openness. If we don’t want them to slam the door shut, we probably need to find some way of making it pay off for them.

    Q. We only had limited access to the North Koreans’ launch control room, but can you give us your impressions of the area and its team?
    A: As I’ve observed the control team, they were obviously set up in staged positions. The main thing I was impressed with was the familiarity of it from my own experience on our mission control. It really struck me as too elaborate and too authentic to be a fake. It felt real to me. The director’s presentation and answers felt real. They resonated with my own experiences, and so I have no doubt that they’re showing a genuine launch control center. To see this team there, it was a remarkable feeling of familiarity, even though I couldn’t understand them except through the interpreters.

    Q. If the launch is successful and the satellite deploys and accomplishes its mission, would that be a step toward North Korea becoming an equal partner in space?

    A: It’s a sign they’ve put a lot of money on show-off projects because the actual services they expect to get from this [weather] satellite can be obtained tomorrow with a credit card. There are a number of providers who already supply the information this satellite is supposed to provide like taking orbital pictures, providing weather data, etc. For a country of approximately 24 million in the economic state it’s in now, it basically can’t afford a rocket of this size. They are spending far too much money for a service they can easily obtain elsewhere. So the reasons for the launch must lie elsewhere. They probably want to sell these rockets to other countries. These other countries probably don’t want them for peaceful purposes either.

    More from James Oberg in msnbc.com's Space News section

    Inside North Korea: Closely watched luunch poses risks

    More from msnbc.com and NBC News:

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    • Titanic voyage commemorated by cruise ships
    • Iraq's fugitive 'king of clubs' re-emerges in video?
    • Wind farm plan for 'Wuthering Heights' riles Bronte fans

    Follow us on Twitter: @msnbc_world

     

    66 comments

    Oh come on.. A modern military missile? Intelligence experts agree that this thing runs on liquid propellant and lacks anything resembling a modern guidance system. Having a guidance system and using solid fuel are the two basic requirements of a missile these days, both of which this joke lacks.

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