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First for breaking news and analysis: Compelling world news stories from NBC News journalists. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

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  • 4
    days
    ago

    Israel and Syria clash on Golan Heights cease-fire line

    By Albert Aji, The Associated Press

    DAMASCUS, Syria -- Syria said Tuesday it destroyed an Israeli vehicle that crossed the cease-fire line in the Golan Heights overnight, while the Israeli military said gunfire from Syria had hit an Israeli patrol, damaging a vehicle and prompting its troops to fire back.

    The two sides appeared to be referring to the same incident.

    Sporadic fire from Syria's civil war has occasionally hit the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, a strategic plateau Israel captured in the 1967 war. Israel assumes most of the incidents are accidental fire but its forces have responded on several occasions.

    Tuesday's incident, however, marked the first time that the Syrian army has acknowledged firing at Israeli troops across the frontier, and appeared to be an attempt by President Bashar Assad's regime to project toughness following three Israeli airstrikes near Damascus this year.

    The strikes, which targeted alleged Syrian arms shipments bound for the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group, marked a sharp escalation of Israel's involvement in the Syrian civil war.

    They also raised fears that a conflict that has repeatedly spilled over Syria's borders could turn into a full-fledged regional war.

    Syria vowed to retaliate and Assad said Syria is "capable of facing Israel" and would not accept violations of its sovereignty. Firing at an Israeli target seems to be in line with the tougher rhetoric that followed the airstrikes.

    A statement issued Tuesday by the Syrian Armed Forces said its troops destroyed the Israeli vehicle along "with those in it."

    It said Israel later fired two missiles toward one of the Syrian positions in the village of Zobaydiya village, causing no casualties.

    The village is located inside the Syrian-controlled Golan and the state-run SANA news agency said rebels were operating in the area. The border zone has seen repeated breaches during Syria's two-year civil war as rebels took control over some villages near the cease-fire line.

    The army statement carried by SANA said any attempt to infiltrate Syria's sovereignty will face "immediate and firm retaliation."

    Earlier Tuesday, Israel's military said gunfire from Syria had hit an Israeli patrol on the Golan Heights overnight, damaging a vehicle and prompting the troops to fire back.

    It said that the Israeli troops reported a "direct hit" from the return fire but provided no further details.

    Related:

    • On the Brink: Syria chaos looms large over Obama's Israel trip
    • Analysis: Israel prepares for the worst as militants eye Syria's chemical weapons
    • UN: About 20 Golan Heights peacekeepers captured by Syrian rebels
    © 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

    266 comments

    Israel should just roll over them now and annex Syria, give half of it the PLO, destroy Hamas, keep the other half for internment camps for the AL Qaeda sympathizers. They need the room anyway.

    Show more
    Explore related topics: israel, military, syria, golan-heights, featured
  • 17
    May
    2013
    4:56am, EDT

    Soldier sentenced to life without parole for killing 5 at combat stress clinic in Iraq

    Jessica Rinaldi / Russell family via Reuters, file

    Sgt. John Russell was sentenced to life in prison without parole for killing five fellow service members at a base in Iraq in 2009.

    An Army sergeant was sentenced Thursday to life in prison without parole for the 2009 killings of five fellow service members at a combat stress clinic in Iraq.

    A military judge, Army Col. David Conn, found Sgt. John Russell guilty of premeditated murder on Monday and imposed the sentence Thursday morning. The only other possible penalty for Russell would have been life in prison with the possibility of release.

    Russell will be transferred within the next several days to Fort Leavenworth in Kansas, Army spokesman Lt. Col. Gary Dangerfield said late Thursday.

    The 14-year veteran from Sherman, Texas, had previously pleaded guilty to unpremeditated murder in exchange for prosecutors taking the death penalty off the table. Under the agreement, prosecutors were allowed to try to prove to an Army judge at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington state that the killings were premeditated. A streamlined court-martial ended Saturday.

    The shooting was one of the worst instances of soldier-on-soldier violence in the Iraq war and raised questions about the mental stresses of serving repeated tours of duty.

    Killed in the 2009 shooting in Baghdad were Navy Cmdr. Charles Springle, of Wilmington, N.C., and four Army personnel: Pfc. Michael Edward Yates Jr., of Federalsburg, Md.; Dr. Matthew Houseal, of Amarillo, Texas; Sgt. Christian E. Bueno-Galdos, of Paterson, N.J.; and Spc. Jacob D. Barton, of Lenox, Mo.

    Russell's lawyers argued that he was deluded by depression and despair at the time. An Army mental health board found that Russell suffered from severe depression with psychotic features and post-combat stress.

    Russell had long sought help with sleep troubles and was stammering and crying for help in the days before the shooting. His commanders were so alarmed that they disarmed him and sent him for repeated visits to mental health clinics, said attorney James Culp.

    However, prosecutors argued that Russell was trying to paint himself as mentally ill in an attempt to win early retirement — just as he was facing a sexual harassment complaint that could derail his career and his benefits.

    The day before the killings, psychiatrist Michael Jones told him that a mental disability retirement would require "some kind of suicidal psychotic crisis," Maj. Daniel Mazzone said during closing arguments, according to the Los Angeles Times.

    But when Russell saw Jones again the next day, the psychiatrist said he had no intention of giving him "a golden ticket" out of the Army.

    When Russell returned about an hour later, prosecutors say, he was looking for Jones, but wound up killing two patients, a bystander and two other mental health workers, including Navy Cmdr. Springle, who had also briefly treated Russell in the days before the shootings. Jones escaped injury by jumping out a window.

    The Associated Press

    Related:

    • 'An evil chuckle': Survivor recalls shooting spree
    • Father says Army 'broke' his son
    • Doctor says soldier who killed 5 was 'psychotic'

    198 comments

    Amazing, this man gets life for killing 5 men. There is a muslim, furry faced, terrorist getting his way for killing Military personnel and making the Military court system the laughing stock of the world. Does anybody else see anything wrong here???

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    Explore related topics: iraq, military, soldier, john-russell, featured, fratricide, u-s-army, five-killed-in-clinic
  • 8
    May
    2013
    11:07am, EDT

    China labels US the 'real hacking empire' after Pentagon report

    Mark Ralston / AFP - Getty Images

    A Chinese paramilitary officer rides a scooter in Beijing on Wednesday. Beijing dismissed an annual Pentagon report that accused it of widespread cyberspying on the U.S. government, rejecting it as an "irresponsible

    By Sui-Lee Wee, Reuters

    BEIJING -- China on Wednesday accused the United States of sowing discord between it and its neighbors after the Pentagon said Beijing is using espionage to fuel its military modernization, branding Washington the "real hacking empire.”

    The latest salvo came a day after China's foreign ministry dismissed as groundless a Pentagon report that accused China for the first time of trying to break into U.S. defense computer networks.

    The Pentagon also cited progress in Beijing's effort to develop advanced-technology stealth aircraft and to build an aircraft carrier fleet to project power further offshore.

    The People's Liberation Army Daily called the report a "gross interference in China's internal affairs.”

    "Promoting the ‘China military threat theory’ can sow discord between China and other countries, especially its relationship with its neighboring countries, to contain China and profit from it," the newspaper said in a commentary that was carried on China's Defense Ministry website.

    The United States is "trumpeting China's military threat to promote its domestic interests groups and arms dealers,” the newspaper said, adding that it expects "U.S. arms manufacturers are gearing up to start counting their money.”

    The remarks in the newspaper underscore the escalating mistrust between China and the United States over hacking, now a top point of contention between Washington and Beijing.

    A U.S. computer security company, Mandiant, said in February a secretive Chinese military unit was likely behind a series of hacking attacks that targeted the United States and stole data from more than 100 companies.

    That set off a war of words between Washington and Beijing.

    China has said repeatedly that it does not condone hacking and is the victim of hacking attacks -- most of which it says come from the United States.

    "As we all know, the United States is the real 'hacking empire' and has an extensive espionage network," the People's Daily, a newspaper regarded as a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, said in a commentary.

    "In recent years, the United States has continued to strengthen its network tools for political subversion against other countries,” the article said.

    "Cyber weapons are more frightening than nuclear weapons," the People's Daily said. "To establish military hegemony on the Internet by repeatedly smearing other countries is a dangerous and wrong path to take and will ultimately end up in shooting themselves in the foot."

    Related links:

    Report: China snooping around Pentagon computers

    'Not based in fact': China angrily denies being behind widespread US hacking

    Analysis: As cyberthreat looms, here's what really matters

     

    129 comments

    So what is the big deal here. They all, Nations that is, do it. The pot is telling the kettle that he is black. Big deal.

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  • Updated
    3
    May
    2013
    12:01pm, EDT

    US military refueling plane crashes in Kyrgyzstan, Pentagon says

    A U.S. Air Force refueling tanker plane has crashed in the rugged mountains of Kyrgyzstan.

    By Jim Miklaszewski and Erin McClam, NBC News

    A U.S. Air Force refueling plane crashed Friday in Central Asia, the military said. There was no immediate word on casualties.

    The plane, a KC-135, crashed in northern Kyrgyzstan and was based at the U.S. military installation at Manas, near the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek. Its mission is to refuel combat planes on patrols over Afghanistan.

    The KC-135 usually has a crew of three.

    Military officials were investigating eyewitness reports that the plane was on fire before it crashed. They were also looking into the possibility that the plane blew an engine or struck a bird.

    “I was working with my father in the field, and I heard an explosion. When I looked up at the sky I saw the fire. When it was falling, the plane split into three pieces,” Sherikbek Turusbekov, who lives nearby, told The Associated Press.

    On Monday, seven people were killed when an American civilian cargo plane, a Boeing 747, crashed shortly after taking off from Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan. It belonged to National Air Cargo, an upstate New York military contractor.

    Six of those killed were from Michigan and the seventh from Kentucky, the company said. The Taliban claimed responsibility, but NATO quickly said that the claim was false and that there was no sign of insurgent activity at the time of the crash.

    The United States leases the Kyrgyz installation for about $60 million a year. The contract is up in July 2014.

    Reuters contributed to this report.

    This story was originally published on Fri May 3, 2013 8:01 AM EDT

    160 comments

    My heart sinks every time I see these headlines, as my son is serving somewhere in Afghanistan for the next year. My sympathies to the families of everyone on board, how painful it feels. My heart felt gratitude to all the men and women who have served, and are serving our Country, affording me the  …

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  • 1
    May
    2013
    7:17am, EDT

    Army deserter who fled to Canada sentenced to 10 months in prison

    Vincent Elkaim / AP via The Canadian Press

    Iraq war resister Kimberly Rivera speaks at a press conference in Toronto in August. Rivera, who is pregnant with her fifth child, returned to to the U.S. in September and on Tuesday was sentenced to 10 months in prison for desertion.

    By Keith Coffman, Reuters

    DENVER -- An Army private believed to be the first female U.S. soldier to seek refuge in Canada rather than return to duty in Iraq was sentenced to 10 months in prison after pleading guilty to desertion, military officials in Colorado said on Tuesday.

    Kimberly Rivera, who said she grew opposed to the war during a three-month tour of duty in Iraq, pleaded guilty at a court-martial proceeding in Fort Carson, Colo., on Monday and was sentenced immediately.

    In addition to the prison time, the 30-year-old private was reduced in rank, ordered to forfeit pay and benefits and given a bad-conduct discharge, base spokeswoman Meghan Williams said.

    Rivera fled to Toronto in 2007 while on leave after serving in Iraq with Fort Carson's 4th Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, in Baghdad, according to her lawyer, James Branum.

    She surrendered to authorities at the U.S. border in upstate New York last September after a Canadian court ordered her deported to the United States, capping several years spent by Rivera unsuccessfully seeking asylum in Canada.

    Branum said Rivera was the first and, as far as he knows, the only female U.S. military deserter to flee to Canada during the Iraq war. The advocacy group War Resisters Support Campaign has said Rivera was the first U.S. female soldier to seek asylum in Canada to avoid redeployment to Iraq.

    Rivera, who had been living in Toronto with her partner and four children, deserted because she developed an opposition to the U.S. military mission in Iraq based on her experience there, the group said.

    Her case had drawn attention of such international human rights advocates as retired Anglican Archbishop Desmond Tutu, who urged Canadian authorities to allow Rivera to stay.

    Under a deal struck with military prosecutors, Rivera agreed to plead guilty in exchange for having her prison term limited to 10 months. Rivera faced a maximum five-year sentence and a dishonorable discharge had she been convicted at trial, military authorities said.

    Rivera approached a U.S. military chaplain in Iraq to express her moral reservations about continuing to serve in the conflict but was not informed of her right to seek conscientious objector status, a move that might have headed off prosecution for desertion, her lawyer said.

    Rivera will remain at a county jail in Colorado for seven to 10 days before she will be transferred to a military prison, mostly likely the brig at the Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in California, Branum said.

    Rivera is pregnant with her fifth child, and Branum said he will appeal to an Army judge for clemency on "humanitarian grounds."

    Related:

    10 years after Iraq invasion, troops ask: 'Was it worth it?'

    Did invasion bring 'hope and progress' as Bush vowed?

    Full Iraq coverage from NBC News

    380 comments

    Good, once you sign that contract your commited. Should have made a better example out of this loser though. 5 years or better.

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  • 26
    Apr
    2013
    12:39am, EDT

    The art of war goes on display in South Korea

    Lee Jae-Won / Reuters

    Amphibious assault vehicles of the South Korean Marine Corps launch smoke bombs as they move to shore during a U.S.-South Korea joint landing operation drill in Pohang, about 230 miles southeast of Seoul, on April 26, 2013. The drill is part of the two countries' annual military training called Foal Eagle, which began on March 1 and runs until April 30.

    Tension has been fueled by North Korean anger over the imposition of U.N. sanctions after its last nuclear arms test in February. The two Koreas have been technically in a state of war since a truce that ended their conflict, which lasted from 1950 to 1953. 

    3 comments

    ROK Marines....Semper Fi.

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  • Updated
    16
    Apr
    2013
    8:01am, EDT

    Helicopter 'hard landing' near North Korea border injures 21 US military personnel

    A helicopter carrying Marines made a hard landing near Seoul while participating in joint military exercises with South Korea. All 21 Marines on board survived, though six of them remain hospitalized in stable condition.

    By Jason Cumming, Staff Writer, NBC News

    A U.S. Marine helicopter's "hard landing" near the North Korean border left 21 service members injured early Tuesday, officials said.

    The CH-53E Super Stallion chopper was "conducting routine flight operations" during an exercise near South Korea's Jipo-ri Range at the time of the incident, according to a military statement.

    All 21 personnel aboard were hospitalized but 15 were treated and released. Six remained in stable condition.

    Its crew was from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and is stationed in Okinawa, Japan.

    South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported that the aircraft caught fire following the incident, which it said occurred about 55 miles north of Seoul. NBC News could not immediately independently verify those details.

    The military statement added: "Safety is a priority for all aircraft operations. The CH-53E has an excellent operational safety record. A comprehensive investigation will take place to determine the facts and circumstances surrounding this incident."

    Neighboring North Korea has threatened nuclear attacks on the United States, South Korea and Japan after new U.N. sanctions were imposed in response to its latest nuclear arms test in February.

    The North has also been angry about annual military exercises between U.S. and South Korean forces, describing them as a "hostile" act. The United States dispatched stealth bombers from their bases to take part. 

    Reuters contributed to this report.

    Related: 

    Kerry: China must do more to resolve N. Korean missile crisis

    Missile launch is N. Korea's exit strategy, analysts say

    Full North Korea coverage from NBC News

    This story was originally published on Tue Apr 16, 2013 4:02 AM EDT

    90 comments

    I hope everyone has a rapid recovery.

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  • 13
    Apr
    2013
    6:07am, EDT

    In Okinawa, the war isn't over: Protests aimed at US base expansion

    Kazuhiro Nogi / AFP - Getty Images, file

    Protesters demonstrate against the deployment of Osprey aircraft at Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa during a Tokyo rally in November. More protests are planned over the large U.S. military presence on the island prefecture.

    By Arata Yamamoto and John Newland, NBC News

    TOKYO -- As Japan prepares to celebrate the 61st anniversary of the nation's return to sovereignty and the end of U.S. occupation after World War II, some members of one community are getting ready to protest.

    The Pentagon hopes to expand a facility in the seaside village of Henoko, Okinawa, as part of a plan to replace an existing base, and many residents aren't happy about it.

    "We would like the United States to take back with them as many of these bases as they can," said Ikuo Nishikawa, an activist and native of Henoko who owns a hardware store.

    Kyodo via Reuters, file

    A Marine Corps Osprey aircraft flies to land at Futenma air base in crowded Ginowan, Okinawa. Some city residents are bothered by the base, but some residents of the town of Henoko, where an expansion is planned to replace it, are angry as well.

    The Pentagon says 38,000 U.S. forces live in Japan, most of them in Okinawa, making up the largest American presence in the increasingly tense Pacific Rim. In addition to the 38,000 on shore, there are 11,000 service members based on ships, 5,000 civilian Defense Department workers and 43,000 family members.

    Although Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel earlier this month announced a plan to eventually return more than 2,500 acres of land to Okinawans, the last thing some islanders want to see is a larger base -- even though it would replace an existing one that is near the heart of a bigger city and thus considered by many to be a hazard.

    Nishikawa, 69, said he was initially open to the idea of a new base in the village. It might have brought him more business.

    But now he is worried, particularly since he started hearing people complain about noise from jets, crimes committed by servicemen and neighborhoods declining as more and more bars opened.

    "I thought of it as other people's business," Nishikawa said. "It didn't occur to me how a base could destroy your living environment, how much pain it could cause.

    "If you come here, this very area where we swim and catch our fish and shellfish, where we take our children to play, will be transformed into a military base. Even today, the two sides of our community are bases -- on the northern side and on the mountainside. And then with this new base, even our ocean will be occupied by a military base."

    Despite the objections, Nishikawa concedes that many people in Okinawa rely on U.S. personnel and their families for their livelihoods and wouldn't think of protesting expansion of a base.

    On a larger scale, the United States and Japan see a major presence in the country as critical to the security of both, and they work closely together to maintain it. The April 5 announcement included a promise from Hagel that "the United States will consolidate our forces over time and reduce our impact on the most populated parts of Okinawa."

    Nonetheless, the fact that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is in favor of the Henoko expansion makes him and his government the target for much of the anger vented by Okinawans, some of whom say Abe is simply ignoring them. 

    "As someone born and raised here, it's hard to accept," Nishikawa said. "The fact that the Japanese government has pushed through this proposal, it's a mockery against the people of Okinawa."

    Okinawa's governor, Hirokazu Nakaima, has no qualms about stating his opinion on the matter. "The people of Okinawa prefecture are greatly dissatisfied," he said during an October panel discussion in Washington. "People have been requesting to relocate the bases for 15 or 16 years … but it's not happening."

    Jiji Press / AFP - Getty Images, file

    Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima, shown speaking to reporters in October, has been vocal in his opposition of U.S. and Japanese government plans to expand a base in the seaside village of Henoko.

    However, barring a sudden change of heart by the U.S., Okinawa's leaders or the central government, a fight for the future of Henoko seems certain to rage on, and U.S. forces will continue to be stationed on the island in large numbers in case real battles replace political ones.

    There's not much the armed forces can do about the sensitive issue except try to foster good will on Okinawa, said Capt. Richard Ulsh, a Marine Corps spokesman at the Pentagon.

    "We do our best to reach out to the people of Okinawa and try to help them understand, one, how important that island itself is to the Asia-Pacific region and, two, how important their support is to us ... [and] the major partner that Japan really is," he said.

    All the outreach in the world may not be enough to appease islanders who are angry about bases and angry at their own government.

    "As someone from Okinawa, I want to remind [Tokyo] about the last big war," said Nishikawa, the hardware store owner. "In the name of national interest, in order to prevent a battle on the mainland, 200,000 Okinawans were sacrificed.

    "With that in mind, why is the government continuing to hurt us still?"

    Related:

    2 US sailors sentenced to prison for rape of woman in Okinawa

    Japan's new PM vows tighter ties with the US

    Full Japan coverage from NBC News

    240 comments

    Well, when North Korea starts spurting missiles their way, who is the first country they will cry too...

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  • 9
    Apr
    2013
    10:15am, EDT

    2 US service members killed in Afghanistan helicopter crash

    Rahmat Gul/AP

    U.S. Black Hawk helicopters arrive to the scene after a NATO helicopter crashed in a field killing two American service members, near Gerakhel, eastern Afghanistan, on April 9.

    By John Newland, Staff Writer, NBC News

    Two American service members were killed in a helicopter crash Tuesday in eastern Afghanistan, the military said.

    A spokesman for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force said Tuesday that there was no enemy activity in the area when the crash occurred and that the cause was under investigation.

    The helicopter went down in the Pachir Agam district of Nangarhar province, Reuters quoted Ahmad Zia Abdulzai, a spokesman for the governor's office, as saying.

     

     

    52 comments

    RIP and Thank You for your service. Standing for those who stood for us....

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  • 8
    Apr
    2013
    11:27am, EDT

    Airmen plucked from sea after Navy jet crashes near carrier

    Lt. Cmdr. Josh Hammond / U.S. Navy via Reuters

    Two F/A-18 Super Hornets, like the one that crashed Monday, are shown flying above the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise in October 2012.

    By John Newland, Staff Writer, NBC News

    A U.S. Navy fighter jet crashed into the northern Arabian Sea on Monday when an engine failed, but both crew members safely ejected, the military said.

    The F-18 Super Hornet was flying near the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier when it lost power, the Navy said. 

    The unnamed airmen, members of Strike Fighter Squadron 103, based in Virginia Beach, Va., bailed out in time to come down safely in the water.

    Helicopter based search-and-rescue swimmers were able to pull the airmen from the water and bring them safely back aboard the ship, the Navy said.

    An investigation into the engine failure and crash is under way, officials said.

    The Eisenhower, part of the 5th Fleet and based in Norfolk Va., is on duty to provide maritime security in the Middle East, the Navy said.

    The air unit, whose planes carry a skull and crossbones logo on their tails, is better known by some as the Jolly Rogers.

    NBC News' Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube contributed to this report.

    Related:

    US pilot killed in F-16 crash in Afghanistan

    US surveillance drone approached by Iranian fighter jet

    11 comments

    As a former carrier sailor myself (WestPac 1965-1969) I'm happy the crew managed to bail out in time and the helo was able to pick them up. It saddens me however, that these fine young sailors and Marines will never experience the joys of liberty in Olongapo...

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    Explore related topics: featured, military, accident, crash, navy, jet, carrier, norfolk, virginia-beach, eisenhower, f-18, super-hornet, jolly-rogers
  • 4
    Apr
    2013
    11:31am, EDT

    US pilot killed in F-16 fighter jet crash in Afghanistan

    By Courtney Kube, Jim Miklaszewski and Jamieson Lesko, NBC News

    A U.S. military pilot was killed when his F-16 fighter jet crashed while on a night flight over mountainous terrain in Afghanistan, officials said Thursday.

    There was no indication of enemy fire in the area at the time of the Wednesday’s crash, in the east of the country.

    “While the cause of the crash is under investigation, initial reporting indicates there was no insurgent activity in the area at the time of the crash,” an official with the U.S.-led international coalition, ISAF, said in a statement.

    While there have been F-16 accidents and even one deadly crash recently - one crashed into the Adriatic earlier this year- such an incident is very rare in Afghanistan, where helicopters are more at risk.

    Meanwhile, officials in the country’s Ghazni province said 6 people were killed, including four local police force members, by a NATO airstrike on Wednesday evening.

    The Afghan Local Police (ALP) were attacked while patrolling in the village of Sulaimanzai, in the district of Deh Yak.

     

    37 comments

    One more too many. RIP.

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  • 4
    Apr
    2013
    4:09am, EDT

    What happens if North Korea gets out of hand? Here are some scenarios

    In response to North Korea's announcement that they will be deploying "small, light" nuclear strikes, the Pentagon has announced it is sending an anti-ballistic missile system to Guam. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

    By M. Alex Johnson, staff writer, NBC News

    While political and military analysts sound pretty confident that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's threats are just bluster, you can't get around the fact that the region encompassing the Korean peninsula is one of the most heavily militarized places on Earth, home to three of the world's six-largest militaries.

    If the unthinkable were to happen, how would it play out?

    Leon Panetta, who stepped down as President Barack Obama's defense secretary in February, warned this week in an interview with CNBC that "we don't have as much insight as we should with regards to the inner workings of what happens in North Korea."

    But based on declassified U.S. and U.N. assessments and independent analyses by military scholars, we can make some educated guesses:


    How would North Korea attack?
    Probably with a massive ground assault backed by artillery fire. That's because North Korea's standing military, according to the best U.S. and U.N. intelligence assessments, is the fourth largest in the world, at 1.1 million members. South Korea's, by contrast, is about 690,000 strong.

    Library of Congress Federal Research Division

    That ratio — a manpower superiority of roughly 3-to-2 for the North — is remarkably consistent across calculations of the countries' weaponry, too. By about the same proportion, the North has more tanks, more artillery, more planes, more ships, more missiles. 

    In a 2008 report commissioned by the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress depicted North Korea as, in essence, one giant military installation (see map at right).

    How would South Korea respond?
    By being smarter and nimbler.

    Much of the North's equipment is seriously outdated, going back to its alliance with the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. 

    The South's weaponry is less extensive but far more advanced, thanks to modern equipment provided by the U.S. 

    "Overall, South Korea's armed forces have become one of the world's more capable militaries and present a formidable forward defense against any possible attack by North Korea," the British-based International Institute for Strategic Studies concluded in 2011.

    All of that presumes that North Korean troops could make it into the South in the first place. To get there, they would have to go through about 28,000 U.S. troops stationed along the Demilitarized Zone separating the two countries, supported by about 40,000 more just a short hop away in Japan and on a large military base in Guam.

    Doesn't Kim have China to back him up?
    In theory, yes, and that's no small matter. 

    China's 2.3-million-strong miitary is the world's biggest, outpacing the U.S.'s by almost 40 percent. In its annual report to Congress last year, the U.S. Defense Department didn't estimate how many Chinese forces might be based in North Korea, but it did outline the massive array of forces China is believed to have inside its own borders facing the Korean peninsula:

    The map at left depicts China's naval buildup around the Korean peninsula. The map at right details army deployments. Click each map for its full-size version.

    But it's not clear that China has the stomach for a fight. Beijing has signaled its displeasure with the North's recent provocations — just last month, it voted for a U.N. resolution to impose sanctions in response to North Korea's announcement of a nuclear test on Feb. 12.

    P.J. Crowley, an assistant secretary of state during Obama's first term, told NBC News that Kim's erratic behavior has created major "frustration" in Beijing, which he said "does not want to see an implosion of North Korea."

    The U.S., on the other hand, has made it clear that it will defend South Korea. To drive home the point, it sent F-22 stealth fighter jets to South Korea as part of military exercises in a show of force Sunday. And it has sent two warships to the western Pacific to watch for missiles and will soon send an advanced anti-ballistic missile system to its base on Guam, defense officials said.

    Military and political analysts say China doesn't want a showdown over the Koreas because then the superpowers' nuclear arsenals become a factor. The U.S. said in an unclassified 2010 report (.pdf) that its stockpile was about 5,100 warheads — more than 20 times that of China, which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimated in 2011 at 240.

    How long could South Korea hold out?
    Much longer than the North.

    If North Korea were to employ nuclear weapons, it would impact U.S. troops and pressure Japan and South Korea to also consider obtaining nuclear weapons – something that could lead to an all-out arms race.  NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

    To put it bluntly — as the CIA did in an economic assessment last month — North Korea is a mess internally. Industrial and power output have receded to pre-1990 levels, while frequent crop failures since a devastating famine in 1995 have compounded food shortages that have fueled chronic malnutrition. All that's keeping its people afloat are international food aid deliveries, mainly from China, which would almost certainly be disrupted or cut off in a war.

    South Korea, in sharp contrast, boasts a high-tech industrialized economy — one of the 20 biggest in the world, the CIA reported. It has numerous trading partners worldwide to keep it fed and supplied. And because its communications and transportation systems are among the best in the world, it would be much better placed to coordinate civil defense and to move people and material out of harm's way.

    So if a traditional assault is unwinnable, what are Kim's options?
    Very scary ones.

    The Center for International Studies and Research, a nonpartisan French research agency, calculated in October (.pdf) that the North can deploy "a full array of what are typically described as weapons of mass destruction" — one of the biggest chemical and biological stockpiles in the world at 2,500 to 5,000 metric tons, mostly tabun (a nerve agent) and mustard gas.

    In a technically secret process, South Korea is believed to have told the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons that it had destroyed its chemical weapons in 2008.

    And then there are North Korea's own nuclear weapons — the real wild card in the deck.

    U.S. officials and other researchers say North Korea may already have a few dozen warheads that could be fitted atop its vast fleet of ballistic missiles. They're fully capable of hitting targets in Japan, South Korea or elsewhere in the northern Pacific, the officials said.

    Kim may be bluffing, as his father and grandfather did before him. But those weapons mean he must always be taken seriously.

    Mission No. 1, Crowley said, is "figure out a way to denuclearize North Korea."

    Related:

    How do you solve a problem like North Korea? Three viewpoints

    US sends anti-missile system to Guam as N. Korea says 'moment of explosion' looms

    Full North Korea coverage from NBCNews.com

    405 comments

    Why doesn't Obama send in the drones? Oh I forgot, he's saving the drones for US citizens.

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