ROME — He is the comeback kid of Italian politics, but Silvio Berlusconi's attempt to revive his career is under the spotlight after he defended fascist wartime leader Benito Mussolini at a ceremony for victims of the Nazi Holocaust. 

The former prime minister said Mussolini's decision to echo Nazi Germany's anti-Jewish laws had been his "worst fault" as a leader "who in so many other ways did well."

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He said: "It is difficult now to put yourself in the shoes of people who were making decisions at that time. Obviously the government of that time, out of fear that German power might lead to victory, preferred to ally itself with Hitler's Germany rather than opposing it."

The remarks, given to reporters in Milan on Sunday, prompted outrage from many quarters in Italy and overseas.

“He has lost the plot," said David Patsi, president of the Italian school Dante Alighieri in Jerusalem and whose father was killed in a concentration camp. "He is an idiot. But I am not surprised. Sometime he even reminds me of Mussolini."

He added: "But I don’t think he is the problem. The problem is that a large number of Italians agree with him.” 

That helps explain why Berlusconi could still make his comeback, despite a track record would have forced almost any other politician to retire from public life.

In November 2011, he was forced to resign as prime minister after it became clear that his denial of the economic crisis was bringing Italy to the brink of disaster.

In October last year, he was sentenced to four years in prison for an epic offshore tax fraud, put off pending appeals to higher courts.

And, if that weren't enough, he is still on trial for allegedly paying an underage exotic dancer for sex.

His popularity hit an all-time low and the 76-year-old with a net worth of almost $6 billion -- according to Forbes magazine -- might have been expected to retire to one of his many mansions.

But he was simply waiting for the chance to strike back in the flamboyant style that won him three terms as prime minister.

Following the resignation of Mario Monti -- the technocratic prime minister who replaced him in 2011 promising to reinvigorate Italy's languishing economy -- Berlusconi has done what he does best: He carpet-bombed the Italian media with guest appearances, clocking up an impressive 63 hours of airtime in only 21 days.

In essence, it's as if during the recent U.S. presidential election, former president George W. Bush was given more airtime than Barack Obama and Mitt Romney combined.

Crisis 'wasn't my fault'
Seems inconceivable, but then Italy has always been an exception in the Western world, and flamboyant and media-friendly Berlusconi, even as an outsider, draws a bigger audience than his closest competitors combined.

Officially, Berlusconi is not actually running as a candidate prime minister -- because this was the price it took to persuade the Northern League party to join Berlusconi's People of Freedom party in a coalition.

But a good result in the elections could mean that all bets are off.

“Italy’s economic crisis wasn‘t my fault. It was the consequence of the wider international crisis,” a defiant Berlusconi recently told a TV host, before he refused to apologize for previously denying the extent of the crisis.

It would seem to be an uphill task for Berlusconi to win the premiership for a fourth time -- in polls his coalition is trailing the center-left Democratic Party by at least 12 points.

But, after his TV onslaught, Berlusconi's bloc saw its poll rating rise by 3 percentage points.

Berlusconi 'very clever'

Italians are tired of painfully high unemployment rates, rising taxes, tax-evasion clampdowns and plummeting spending power.

But it remains to be seen whether they really believe Berlusconi when he claims that the economic crisis wasn't his fault and that his tax-cutting strategy is the solution.

“Berlusconi has been very clever. He stepped aside when the new government introduced very unpopular austerity measures and has come back in the limelight only now, saying that the cure was worse than the illness,” Maurizio Caprara, a journalist for the daily Corriere della Sera, said.

“Now he is trying to rally again his troops. Many became disillusioned following his many scandals, but many, as the polls show, may decide to give him one more try,” he added.

Monti recently called Berlusconi the "Pied Piper of Hamelin," who “leads the mice to drown in the river, having fooled Italians three times already.”

And yet, at least according to his recently rising popularity, many Italians seem to find his tune irresistible.  

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Two rakish young men with ponytails order drinks at a bar.

“What'll it be?” asks the barman in Hebrew. He, too, is thin, with shoulder-length gray hair. One of the two men leans forward and says, “Make it two chasers – freedom and democracy – please!'

They all laugh heartily.

---

Thus begins a paid political ad for the Pirate Party, one of a range of fringe parties competing for votes in Israel's parliamentary elections, to be held Tuesday.

If you've ever been tempted, as I have, to write-in “Mickey Mouse” on your ballot, you'll understand why I jumped at the chance to meet up with the people ordering – and purporting to serve – shots of freedom and democracy. They could be found at a Pirate Party media event at the heart of Jerusalem.

I expected to see semi-stoned, loony twenty-somethings wielding cutlasses and sporting 18^th-century tricorne hats, playing “Walking the Plank.” Instead, it felt more like a family get-together in a country cottage. I spied no pirates but did see Israeli parents who had brought their kids to play on an open patio.

A middle-aged man greeted me in a stone-walled alcove turned into a quaint art gallery. Roni Jacobowitz, an academic from Berlin now living in Israel, smiled when I asked if he was a pirate. “Indeed,” he replied. “In Germany we've had a Pirate Party for some time, so I've come to help get it started here in Israel.”

Jacobowitz explained that there are currently about 40 Pirate Parties around the world. Germany has at least 30,000 members. In fact, he said, several German state parliaments have Pirate party members. So does the Czech Republic. A mayor in Finland is a Pirate. The Tunisian Culture Minister is a Pirate.

So what is a pirate?

As if on cue, the young man in the television ad entered the room. He wore a pirate hat and a cutlass stenciled onto his T-shirt like a dress tie.

“Hey, I'm Noam, how's it goin'?” he asked in a perfect American accent. “I'm sorry there's not much of a turnout tonight. The other two party leaders are being interviewed on Israeli TV, so most of the press is following them. Here, we can stream it on the internet.'

A documentary producer, Noam Kuzar (he prefers the spelling Kuzarrr) is 31 and was born and raised in Jerusalem. His mother is American, thus the accent. As I watched Noam navigate effortlessly on his laptop through live and taped TV ads, appearances, and tutorials about his party, I looked around and noticed that other Pirate Party members were doing the same.

“Do you have to be a computer nerd to be a Pirate?” I asked, still unclear about the Pirate Party’s platform. “It helps,” Kuzar said.

“Well I'm no computer nerd!” Roni Jacobowitz interjected. “I'd say to be a Pirate, you have to be an artist, or a writer, a free-thinker.”

“Or a nerd!” Kuzar fired back. “In a sentence: Human beings are here for a limited amount of time and should be free as much as we can – we have the technology, we have the means, we have the infrastructure. So why not?”

In Israel, fringe parties are, taken as a whole, politically significant. Many Israeli voters are tired of back-door coalitions between mainstream parties, so they've turned increasingly to minority parties such as the Pirates – not just out of protest, but because, behind the humor and disguise,  they promote  popular policies. Although no fringe party has yet received the two percent needed to win a seat in the Knesset (Israeli Parliament), the latest polls indicate that as many as eight percent of voters will vote for a fringe party this year. That means fewer seats for established parties.

The Pirate Party grew out of the digital revolution. “Think of us as a political Wikipedia,” Kuzar said. “We share a digital culture. The paradigm is no longer the kibbutz in Israel. It's YouTube.”

They called themselves 'pirates' to spoof one of their main “planks” – that information should be free and shared by all. When pressed, they do believe in paying for creative work online, but only if that money goes to the artist and not middlemen.

Kuzar was most passionate about the inalienable right to surf the internet. “When we are elected there will be free high speed Internet for everyone, with equal uploading and downloading speed, so that the internet can be a means of expression,” he said.

If the party had its way, the Knesset would be a hall of computer servers handling discussions, filibusters and votes. No lobbyists. No horse-trading. The Pirates call it “liquid feedback” –  transparent, grass-roots democracy. “The Internet is a powerful tool,” Kuzar said. “You can meet people one on one, or you can have hundreds of thousands talking to each other simultaneously about a certain issue and make decisions and follow up on them afterwards.”

So what is the Pirate Party's position on Iran's nuclear program?

Without missing a beat, Kuzar replied: “We will sit down and talk to anyone who has the Internet. There isn't a Pirate Party in Iran yet but once there is we'll contact them.”

And what about Israeli-Palestinian peace talks? 

“Same thing – we have neighbors and we need to find creative solutions to our problems. Just being on the Internet will not suddenly bring peace. But if people fight over the internet rather than over tanks and buses and explosions, that's good enough for now.”

I was beginning to like these Pirates. Before leaving, I turned to Kuzar and asked how he thought the Pirates would fare on Election Day.

“We've got 300 registered members,” he said. “We should get at least that.”

Jim Maceda is an NBC News foreign correspondent based in London, currently on assignment in Tel Aviv.

Related: Charismatic ex-commander pressures Netanyahu from the right as Israel prepares to vote 

 

 

ANALYSIS

TEL AVIV, Israel — Even before he was nominated to become the next U.S. secretary of defense, the bad-mouthing of former Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel had already begun.

Warnings flew like salvos across the U.S. media and beyond: Hagel is soft on Iran and no friend of Israel. Tea Party and Republican critics of the moderate and pragmatic Hagel smelled blood.

Ted Cruz, a freshman senator from Texas, said that Hagel "would make war with Iran more likely because he's too nice to Iran."

---

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said Hagel would be "the most antagonistic secretary of defense towards the state of Israel in our nation's history."

So you would expect to see the vitriol flowing here in Israel, especially just days before a crucial parliamentary election — on Jan. 22 — in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is struggling to head off a late populist surge by an even more right-wing candidate.

But there have been no anti-Hagel protests outside the U.S. Embassy and no angry Israelis heard on radio talk shows. In fact, reaction to all the uproar back home has been muted.

'Dark cloud'
It's true that Israelis in general aren't happy with the nomination. "It represents a dark cloud over the relationship between the two countries, and it borders on hostility," said Simon Schiffer, a political analyst with the Yediot Ahronot daily newspaper.

Hagel's willingness to engage with Iran and its client, Hamas, upsets most Israelis, Schiffer noted. But he went on to say that “U.S. policy towards Israel is set in the White House, and there you can find today a president who has a very warm approach to Israel but at the same time a very angry and cold policy towards Netanyahu and his government.”

Related: Hagel — a man without a party

So far, Israeli government reaction has been minimal and mixed. Reuven Rivlin, the powerful speaker of Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, told The Associated Press he is worried about Hagel "because of his statements in the past and his stance toward Israel."

But Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, wrapping up a trip to the U.S., told a group of major Jewish organizations that he personally knew and worked with Hagel and found him to be "a decent and fair interlocutor who believes in the natural partnership between Israel and the United States."

Until Sunday there had been not a peep from Netanyahu himself, whose "iron fist" approach to Iran, Hamas and the Palestinian territories seems diametrically opposed to Hagel's instinct for dialogue.

"I do not interfere in the political appointments of the U.S. president. It is his prerogative,'' Netanyahu told Israel's Army Radio. "Congress decides and confirms, and we will work with whoever is chosen.''

One Israeli official told NBC News that Netanyahu's silence doesn't mean he's not angry.

After making the mistake of “backing the wrong horse — [Gov. Mitt] Romney — during the last U.S. election, he's not willing to play that game again,” said the official, who was not authorized to speak on the record about policy matters.

'Revenge' for Romney?
Sever Plocker, an influential Israeli commentator, went further by suggesting that Obama picked Hagel as “revenge” for Netanyahu's public support for Romney.

Hagel hasn't yet defended his positions before the U.S. Senate, but he has faced the court of public opinion, emphasizing in recent days his "unequivocal support for Israel." On Iran, he told Defense Department officials Wednesday that he also strongly "supports multilateral sanctions against Iran and that Tehran must be prevented from acquiring nuclear warheads."

Hagel may have gotten into some hot water with a comment — made years ago in Washington — that “the political reality is that …the Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people up here.” But on Monday one of the largest and most active of those "Jewish lobbies" -- the National Jewish Democratic Council -- released a statement saying it believes Hagel “will follow the president's lead in providing unrivaled support for Israel — on strategic cooperation, missile defense programs and leading the world against Iran's nuclear program.”

The consensus here is that Netanyahu may enjoy watching Hagel fight for his nomination in Washington, but staying out of the fight is probably a smart move.

Related stories:

Senators signal tough fight for Hagel

Full Israel coverage from NBC News

ROME — Silvio Berlusconi, the disgraced former prime minister of Italy who became infamous for hosting "bunga bunga" sex parties, has announced a relationship with a politician 49 years his junior as he seeks to return to power despite facing an underage prostitution trial.

The billionaire former leader told television viewers Sunday he is now in a steady relationship with Francesca Pascale, a 27-year-old political councilor in his People of Freedom Party.

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"Finally I feel less lonely," he said, adding: "She is 27 years old, with very solid values, beautiful on the outside and even more beautiful on the inside.”

Disgraced Berlusconi says he'll run for fourth term as Italy's premier

Pascale bears a striking resemblance to Berlusconi’s ex-wife, Veronica Lario, who left him in 2009 after accusing him of consorting with minors.

He was forced to resign in November 2011 when it became clear he could not deal with Italy’s economic crisis, but nevertheless Berlusconi made a surprise announcement last week that he will be seeking a fourth term as prime minister in the government elections in late February.

Scandals and notoriety
Berlusconi has been at the center of countless scandals and gained worldwide notoriety as the host of the so-called "bunga bunga" parties, private dinners that allegedly led to sexy shows performed by his young and attractive guests.

He is also a defendant in a trial over allegations that he paid an escort known as “Ruby the heart-stealer” in exchange for sex when she was still a minor.

Complete World coverage on NBCNews.com

A judge on Monday set the date for the final hearing of that trial in early February, making a verdict possible before the elections.

Should Berlusconi win, Italy’s new first lady will be one-third the prime minister's. 

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Thai police fired tear gas in clashes with hundreds of protesters in Bangkok on Saturday ahead of a rally seeking to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in a rally that authorities feared would grow into the biggest demonstration the country has seen since she took office last year.

The rally, which was expected to draw tens of thousands of protesters, was mostly peaceful in its early stages.

Anti-riot police wielding plastic shields fired gas canisters at protesters who tried to climb over cement and barbed wire barriers blocking entry to the rally site. Police said "between 300 and 400 protesters'' clashed with police.

---

At least seven police were wounded and up to 132 protesters arrested in the clash near the United Nations headquarters in Bangkok, a stone's throw away from the main rally site.

Earlier in the week, Yingluck ordered nearly 17,000 police to deploy and invoked a special security law, citing concerns that the rally could turn violent. She also accused demonstrators of seeking to overthrow her elected government.

The demonstration underscores the still-simmering political divisions that have split the country since the army toppled Yingluck's brother Thaksin Shinawatra in a 2006 military coup.

Saturday's protest was organized by a royalist group calling itself "Pitak Siam" — or "Protect Thailand." Led by retired army Gen. Boonlert Kaewprasit, the group accuses Yingluck's administration of corruption, ignoring insults to the revered monarchy and being a puppet of Thaksin.

Addressing several thousand protesters on the rally's central stage on Saturday, Boonlert vowed the demonstration would remain peaceful. But he said: "I promise that Pitak Siam will succeed in driving this government out."

He then led the crowd in a chant: "Yingluck, get out! Yingluck, get out!"

The rally was being held at Bangkok's Royal Plaza, a public space near Parliament that has been used by protesters in the past.

Police allowed protesters into the site, and two roads leading to it were open. But in an effort to control access, security forces erected concrete barriers on another road leading to Royal Plaza. When between 50 to 100 protesters tried to break through one of the barriers, a contingent of around 500 police fired tear gas and beat them back with batons.

While Pitak Siam is a newcomer to Thailand's protest scene, it is linked to the well-known "Yellow Shirt" protesters, whose rallies led to Thaksin's overthrow. The same movement later toppled a Thaksin-allied elected government after occupying and shutting down Bangkok's two airports for a week in 2008.

Thaksin remains a divisive figure in Thai politics. The Yellow Shirts and their allies say he is personally corrupt and accuse him of seeking to undermine the popular constitutional monarch — charges Thaksin denies.

Yingluck was taking Saturday's rally seriously. Her Cabinet invoked the Internal Security Act on Thursday in three Bangkok districts around the protest site, and she later addressed the nation to explain the move, citing concerns of violence.

The security act allows authorities to close roads, impose curfews and ban use of electronic devices in designated areas. Measures began taking effect Thursday night, with police closing roads around Yingluck's office, the Government House, and placing extra security at the homes of senior officials, including the prime minister.

In a nationally televised address Thursday, Yingluck said protest leaders "seek to overthrow an elected government and democratic rule ... and there is evidence that violence may be used to achieve those ends."

National police chief spokesman Maj. Gen. Piya Uthayo said Friday that 16,800 police officers had been called in from around the country to provide security for the rally.

Boonlert, the protest group's leader, is best known for his role as president of the Thailand Boxing Association. His name is unfamiliar in the anti-Thaksin protest movement, but his message appears to have resonated with Yellow Shirt supporters who have laid low in recent years after Yingluck's party won the last elections.

Analysts said they did not view the protest as an immediate threat to Yingluck's government, but were watching it closely.

"Anytime you have tens of thousands of people converging, assembling in a central Bangkok location, it becomes a government stability concern," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

But he added: "I think it's a serious concern more than a serious threat."

Thailand has been gripped by bouts of political instability since 2006, with Thaksin's supporters and opponents taking turns to spar over who has the right to rule the country.

The most violent episode came in 2010, when Thaksin's "Red Shirt" supporters led a two-month occupation of central Bangkok to demand the resignation of an anti-Thaksin government. The protests sparked a military crackdown that left at least 91 people dead and more than 1,700 injured.

Thaksin has lived in self-imposed exile since 2008, when he jumped bail to evade a corruption conviction and two-year jail term. He retains huge popularity among the rural poor, who want to see him pardoned and returned to power. But he is reviled by the urban elite and educated middle class, who see him as authoritarian and a threat to the monarchy.

Buoyed by Thaksin's political machine, Yingluck was elected by a landslide victory in August 2011. She initially was criticized for her lack of political experience — she was an executive in Shinawatra family businesses — but has won praise for leading the country through one of its longest peaceful periods in recent years.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

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Updated at 4:50 p.m. ET: Following her arrival in Israel, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated at a press conference Tuesday that America's commitment to Israel's security is "rock solid," adding that "the goal must be a durable outcome that promotes regional stability and advances the security and legitimate aspirations of Israelis and Palestinians alike."

"The rocket attacks from terrorist organizations inside Gaza on Israeli cities and towns must end, and a broader calm restored," Clinton said, adding that there are no substitutes for security and a just and lasting peace.

Speaking in Jerusalem, Clinton also offered her condolences for those lost in the violence.

"Our hearts break for the loss of every civilian, Israeli and Palestinian, and for all those who have been wounded and are living in fear and danger," she said, adding that she would work with Israel and Egypt on brokering a truce in Gaza "in the days ahead."

Israel is prepared to escalate its offensive but would prefer a long-term diplomatic solution, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday.

"If there is a possibility of achieving a long-term solution to this problem with diplomatic means, we prefer that," he said in a public statement alongside Clinton.

"But if not, I'm sure you understand that Israel will have to take whatever action is necessary to defend its people."

Earlier, a Hamas official said a truce with Israel would not be reached Tuesday because the Israeli government had yet to respond to proposals.

"The Israeli side has not responded yet, so we will not hold a (news) conference this evening and must wait until tomorrow," Ezzat al-Rishq, a senior Hamas leader, told Reuters. "The truce is now held up because we are waiting for the Israeli side to respond," he added in a short telephone interview.

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Clinton landed at 9:51 p.m. local time in Tel Aviv, where she met with Netanyahu. Later, Clinton will meet with the President of the Palestinian National Authority Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah before heading to Cairo.

A U.S. official stressed to NBC News that Clinton would not meet with representatives of Hamas, the Islamist organization that controls the Gaza Strip, largely because of its failure to renounce terrorism and recognize Israel's right to exist.

Egyptian officials said talks are ongoing to reach a truce in Gaza, although any agreement appears unlikely to address the long-term areas of disagreement between Israel and the Hamas leaders of the Gaza Strip, NBC's Ayman Mohyeldin reported Tuesday.

The expected "cessation of hostilities" will call on all parties to use maximum restraint, according to one former intelligence official familiar with the talks.

Earlier Tuesday, President Barack Obama spoke to Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, who is seeking to broker a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. 

According to White House officials, Obama spoke to Morsi for the third time in 24 hours. Deputy National Security adviser Ben Rhodes said Obama wanted to talk to Morsi before Clinton's arrival in Israel.

Rhodes said Obama underscored the importance of Morsi working toward a de-escalation to the conflict in Gaza. He also commended Morsi's efforts to pursue a de-escalation and acknowledged Egypt's important role in the region's security.

Rhodes said Obama emphasized the importance of a diplomatic solution, but said that rocket fire from Gaza into Israel must stop.

Israel Defense Forces continued airstrikes overnight, and also said 39 rockets fired from Gaza hit Israel Tuesday in a message on its Twitter account.

Since Israel launched its military campaign seven days ago in response to rocket fire, more than 100 people in Gaza and three people in Israel have been killed.

Internationally, the main focus was on stopping the violence, and Morsi hinted at a possible breakthrough Tuesday.

Speaking at his sister's funeral in Egypt, Morsi said the "aggression on Gaza" would end Tuesday. He made the apparently off-the-cuff comments in front of mourners who had come to pay their respects, but did not elaborate. Several journalists traveling with Morsi confirmed he made the remark.

'Army must invade': In southern Israel, support grows for action in Gaza

In Jerusalem, Netanyahu said Israel would be a “willing partner” in a cease-fire, but also issued a warning.

He said if further military action proved necessary “to stop the constant barrage of rockets, Israel will not hesitate to do what is necessary to defend our people.”

And Mohammed Deif, the new leader of Hamas' military wing, sounded a defiant note, saying that the movement was ready to fight and would not back down from its efforts to liberate Palestine.

He was speaking in his first audio recording since the group’s previous top military commander, Ahmed Jabari, was killed in an Israeli airstrike Wednesday. Deif, who has survived several assassination attempts in the past, called for Hamas’ supporters to remain steadfast. 

We are very scared': Egyptians fear being mired in Gaza-Israel crisis

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'Difficult' situation

It is unclear how much influence Clinton can have on the situation.

“She is going to go out there to be in the region to have direct, face-to-face discussions with those leaders,” Rhodes said. “I don’t want to predict exactly what the outcome of those discussions will be. We all know how difficult this situation is.” 

The White House thinks the leaders who are heavily involved in the region “understand what the best outcome is,” Rhodes added, but that a peaceful goal is only achievable “if Hamas takes action to stop what they’ve been doing.”

An Israeli soldier and a civilian died when rockets exploded near the Gaza frontier, police and the army said.

An Israeli air strike on two cars in the Gaza Strip killed six Palestinians Tuesday, while two children died in an attack in the north of the territory, local residents and medics told Reuters. 

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called Tuesday for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza and said a threatened Israeli ground operation in the Palestinian enclave would be a “dangerous escalation” that must be avoided.

Later, standing alongside Netanyahu in Jerusalem, Ban urged Israel to show "maximum restraint" and condemned rocket attacks on Israel.

Also Tuesday, Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby and the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Lebanon, Tunisia and Sudan traveled from Egypt to Gaza in an unprecedented move designed to show solidarity with the Palestinians, NBC News reported.

US Embassy guard wounded
Meanwhile, a man was arrested after he stabbed a security guard Tuesday at the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv, a police spokesman told Reuters. 

The spokesman said the guard opened fire during the attack.

Israel Radio said the attacker, who police said was armed with a knife and an ax, was wounded. 

NBC's Shawna Thomas, Ayman Mohyeldin and Ian Johnston, and Reuters contributed to this report.

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News analysis

Updated at 5:41 a.m. ET on Nov. 7: Barack Obama faces no shortage of foreign challenges as he enters his second term as commander in chief.

While it is impossible to predict what may come, here’s a look at 10 issues likely to emerge as priorities for his administration:

1. Possible Afghan collapse/civil war
The Afghan government has been propped up by American and NATO troops and money but has failed in its basic functions of establishing national trust, security and unity. Afghanistan could devolve into a civil war as U.S. troops draw down in 2014, with old rivalries re-emerging between the north and south/southeast.

Once again, the country could be torn by an ethnic war between the Pashtuns and the now-defunct Northern Alliance, a legion of Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara militias. The risk is that Afghan security forces will then split along ethnic lines and President Hamid Karzai, whom critics accuse of being an uncooperative U.S. ally, could become an even greater liability.

On a recent visit to Afghanistan I spoke to some Tajik villagers outside Kabul, who promised me they would start fighting once American troops leave. They said they would battle a group of pro-Taliban Pashtun villagers nearby. When asked if Karzai's troops would be able to stop a clash, one tribal elder told me, "The corrupt government in Kabul? It can't do anything."

The dangers of an Afghan collapse are many: Afghan deaths, a loss of American prestige, a loss of NATO prestige, a moral blow to U.S. troops and veterans, a Taliban resurgence, huge setbacks for women, and greater power for Pakistan and Pakistani extremists.

Read more Afghanistan coverage from NBCNews.com

2. Possible Iran implosion or explosion
Iran, which is being pushed to a breaking point by U.S.-led currency and banking sanctions, won't simply sit back and watch its economy crumble. Persia is 7,000 years old and will fight to survive.

The increasingly isolated country is likely to act in one of three ways: accommodation and negotiation, weaponization, or diversion.

Faced with the crippling sanctions, Iran could simply decide it is paying too high a cost to pursue its nuclear program and could opt for negotiations and reconciliation with the United States and other members of the international community. This is clearly the preferred option of American leaders.

---

The other possibilities are more problematic. Iran could rush toward a nuclear capability, deciding the best way to survive is to obtain weapons so horrific that no one would dare attack. A nuclear program has arguably worked as a deterrent for North Korea and other states -- would Moammar Gadhafi have been deposed and summarily killed if Libya had had nuclear weapons? Iranians might not think so.

Source: Back-channel talks but no US-Iran deal on one-to-one nuclear meeting

A less risky approach would be to provoke a diversionary conflict through Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shiites in Bahrain, the Kurdistan Workers Party in Syria and Turkey, its position in the Strait of Hormuz -- or it could try to inflame anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment.

Iran also could try to attack the American economy through sabotage or cyber warfare. Cornered as it is, Iran could become the aggressor instead of -- as it sees itself -- the passive victim.

How Iran acts is up to its choosing but it's hard to see how it won't act -- for better or worse -- as the sanctions continue to bite.

Read more Iran coverage from NBCNews.com

3. Rise of the Muslim Brotherhood
The Arab Spring has empowered the Muslim Brotherhood across the Middle East and beyond. It and other ideologically similar and allied groups run the governments of Egypt, Tunisia and Gaza.

In Syria, the Brotherhood has a strong presence among the rebels and in Yemen, it runs half the government and much of the state's day-to-day functions. In Jordan and Morocco, the Brotherhood is the main opposition to the countries' ruling royal families. In leaderless Libya, it is an increasingly organized voice. And in Algeria, the movement's officials warn that their revolution is coming.

The Muslim Brotherhood's influence in the Middle East is likely to evolve in one of two ways. Military regimes that have been pushed aside could fight back and launch counter-Islamic revolutions, clawing back the Brotherhood's gains and keeping it tied up in internal political battles. This is already starting to happen in Egypt.

Analysis: Egypt's big turn under the Muslim Brotherhood

Conversely, the Muslim Brotherhood could consolidate its gains and dominate electoral politics in the Middle East for the next several years.

For the United States, the rise of the Brotherhood is not in itself a major challenge. Most of its leaders say they want good relations and economic ties with Washington. The problem, however, is Israel. The Brotherhood is fundamentally anti-Israel, and Washington is fundamentally pro-Israel.

While analysts can debate which presidential candidate is closer to Israel, both have expressed their commitment to it and its security -- just as every U.S. president has done.

But the Muslim Brotherhood will not make the same commitments to Israel's integrity and security. While campaigning to win the election in Egypt, the Brotherhood held rallies featuring speakers who called for the restoration of the Islamic Caliphate with Jerusalem as its capital.

The Brotherhood does not understand why Washington chooses to befriend one small country at the expense of relations with millions of Arabs and over a billion Muslims. Washington rejects having to make this choice.

This rift could become a showdown and devolve into violence. The timing depends on American policy and outside provocations that can be either by design -- "peace" flotillas to Gaza, Hamas rockets, an Israeli assault on Gaza -- or by accident, such as bigoted and dumb Internet movies.

4. Cyber threat
The United States has spent a decade fighting terrorists with some notable and many debatable successes. But bombs aren't the only kind of threat. In fact, a successful cyber attack could cause national and international chaos far exceeding a bombing in a major U.S. city.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently warned about a possible cyber Pearl Harbor. Many military officials and analysts I know fully agree with him.

Panetta: Cyber intruders have already infiltrated US systems

5. Israeli strike on Iran
Israel may attack Iran's nuclear program if it believes sanctions are failing. The strike would likely delay but not stop the program, experts say. For the time being, Israel has decided to wait and see what impact the international sanctions have.

If Iran chooses a quick rush to make a bomb, Israel will most likely change course and opt for a military solution. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made that point abundantly clear when he drew a red line at the United Nations and held up a picture of a bomb.

Read more Israel coverage from NBCNews.com

6. Revival of al-Qaida/Ansar al-Sharia
Al-Qaida's leaders have been killed and hunted, but the group hasn't gone away. Many al-Qaida factions have re-branded themselves under a new name: Ansar al-Sharia (partisans of Islamic law). Some of the militants also are finding new comfortable homes in the post-Arab Spring Middle East, blending into Salafist (Sunni fundamentalist) movements.

7. Rift with Pakistan
Pakistan and the United States have been locked in an uncomfortable marriage since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, and arguably long before that.

US, Pakistan should 'divorce,' ex-ambassador to Washington says

Critics accuse Pakistan of taking American counter-terrorism money and military support, while at the same time supporting terrorist groups.

If the United States cuts off Pakistan -- which may happen as Washington becomes less reliant on Pakistani supply routes into Afghanistan -- Islamabad could become more belligerent, which would cause relations to deteriorate further. The withdrawal from Afghanistan will change the costly status quo that has existed with Pakistan since 9/11, and that change is unlikely to go smoothly.

Read more Pakistan coverage from NBCNews.com

8. Mexico and the growing war on drugs
According to some estimates, Mexico has become the most dangerous country in the world. Around 50,000 people have been killed in the country's drug wars. It is unclear if Mexico's President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto will be able to contain the violence, which has spread south to Central America and is showing signs of leaking north into the United States.

Read more Mexico coverage from NBCNews.com

9. US 'pivot' to Asia/China slowdown
In 2011, China overtook Japan to become the world's second-largest economy after the United States. The Obama administration has acknowledged China's growing military and political power, and has pledged to "pivot" or deploy more than half of the U.S.' naval assets to the Asia-Pacific region by the end of the decade. This, some argue, has contributed to souring relations between the two powers.

Adding to the troubles, China isn't cheap anymore and Chinese workers are no longer as willing to accept poor conditions and little pay. Strikes are increasingly common. Removing dissent from Chinese Internet sites is a full-time job for government censors. Growth rates remain high, but the cost of living and labor demands are going up.

Factories are already moving out of China to cheaper labor markets in Indonesia and Bangladesh. If China's economic growth slows for a prolonged period, the world will be dramatically impacted. The country's economic expansion has driven up oil prices and has made parts of the Middle East, Russia and Brazil exceptionally rich. Could labor unrest threaten the ruling Communist Party's grip? Any move from this giant creates a huge wake that will quickly wash onto American shores.

Read more China coverage on NBC's Behind The Wall

10. United States: Drifting?
For a decade, the United States has made fighting terrorism its main foreign policy goal. This is by definition a reactionary policy and is limited in focus -- without a global vision or sense of destiny.

In contrast, American rivals appear to have grand plans in place. Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, seems intent on regaining its Soviet and Tsarist glory. Turkey is flexing its muscles regionally and is re-establishing some of its Ottoman legacy and prominence. China is looking to consolidate its hold on swathes of Asia and beyond.

Full coverage: NBCNews.com's The World is Watching series

But what does the United States want to do? What is our goal? It is impossible to be influential if we don't know where we are going -- and any malaise would be damaging to the national interest. World powers must move to survive. Drifting is sinking.

More election coverage from NBCNews.com:

• Victorious Obama 'more determined' in face of challenges
• Now that he's won, six splitting headaches waiting for Obama
• Democrats retain control of Senate with series of hard-fought wins
• One big winner in Tuesday's vote: health reform
• Romney's English cousin sad he lost, sort of
• Rape remarks sink two Republican Senate hopefuls
• In costliest-ever Senate race, Warren beats Brown for Mass. seat
• Maine's Harley-riding King vowed to 'shake up' D.C.
• Republicans easily maintain control of House
• Colorado, Washington approve recreational marijuana use
• Wisconsin's Baldwin becomes 1st openly gay senator
• Pence in as governor of Indiana; Hassan wins in N.H.
• World welcomes Obama's 2nd term - but many challenges loom
• Majority of voters see American on wrong track
• Top 10 foreign policy issues facing Obama

Follow NBC Politics on Twitter and Facebook

 

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- In a country known for its constant chaos, nobody can make a crowd stop and listen quite like Imran Khan.

Khan's messages -- which almost always hinge on his apparent anger over the United States' demands on Pakistan -- make him the country's most-followed presence on Facebook and Twitter.  He is particularly popular among Pakistan's wired urban youth.  But while Khan's popularity online cannot be contested, whether it will translate into victory at the ballot box remains the big question. 

'Taliban Khan'
Critics contend that Khan is simply bitter about criticism he's received from established members of the media.  In particular, journalists and commentators question the former cricket star's popular but difficult to implement policies -- an end to official corruption within 90 days, cessation of all hostilities with militants, halt to CIA drone attacks and rejection of American aid.

Especially since the assassination attempt on 14-year-old education activist Malala Yousufzai, Khan's refusal to wholeheartedly condemn all militancy and terror has prompted his critics to call him soft on terror. 

While Khan's ideas have earned him the teasing but telling moniker "Taliban Khan" from members of the Westernized elite, they have proved wildly popular online.  

Pakistan's Generation Y battles to shape country's future

There is the official Facebook page for Khan (with about 487,000 'likes'). Its fans outnumber his party's official page by more than 100,000 members.

The "We Want Imran Khan to be the next Prime Minister of Pakistan" page also has more than 525,000 likes.

Khan also has about 400,000 followers on Twitter -- along with several assistants handling his and attached accounts -- tweeting rants, pictures and quotes from Pakistan's founders around the clock.

 

If social-media popularity equaled election results, Khan would already have a few terms under his belt.  In fact, so pervasive is his online persona that his detractors have branded him a virtual politician.  

However, while Khan might be the country's most popular political figure, he is hardly the Islamic Republic's most powerful; he boycotted the last election and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) or Movement for Justice party, has no presence in a parliament.

US, Pakistan should 'divorce,' ex-ambassador to Washington says

Wired, but do they vote?
Whether Khan can translate online support into victory at the ballot box is highly contested. (When new elections will actually be held hasn't been decided although many expect them to be held in spring or summer 2013.) 

 

"Imran Khan's base, his core support, is urban, middle class and educated -- precisely the cohort that has access to the Internet and spends time online," Cyril Almeida, who pens one of Pakistan's most-read columns for Dawn newspaper, told NBC News. "Hence, his substantial online support. ... PTI is building a voter base starting from the social media."

 Almeida acknowledges that former President Pervez Musharraf -- who led the country from 2001 to 2008 and now lives in exile in London -- also has a substantial online following but "wouldn't win a local councilor seat if he stood for one."

"Imran is somewhere in between," Almeida said. "His rock star status online is wildly more exaggerated than his real-world support -- though he will win at least some seats come election time."

Thousands rally for Malala, girl shot by Taliban

Others, like Fahd Hussain, a primetime anchor at Waqt TV, which belongs to one of Pakistan's oldest and most conservatively aligned news conglomerates, says the Internet could still generate a Khan "tsunami."

"[The] social media support base of Imran should not be ignored," Hussain said. "It's massive and growing and creates political momentum."

Others question what online popularity will translate into, if anything.

Gibran Peshimam, the political editor of the Express Tribune newspaper, says that while Khan may be a heavyweight on the Internet, he is more of a lightweight offline.  

"The percentage of Pakistan's population that has access to the Internet barely breaks the double-digit barrier," he told NBC News. "In any case, the majority percentage of those who have this access to the Internet, and hence social media, is a non-voting sector. The well-to-do generally do not vote in Pakistan. They talk about voting, but barely any of them are even registered to vote."

"Large-scale support on the Internet in Pakistan does translate into numbers, given the youth bulge, but it certainly does not translate into large numbers -- unlike, perhaps, in the U.S.," he added.

Echoes of Obama '08?
The comparison to the United States is a common one in Pakistan, and linked to the Khan camp's obsession with President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign in which social media played a key role in fundraising as well as getting younger Americans out to vote. So-called Khanophiles constantly point to the Obama '08 template as one that can be replicated, with some qualifications and modifications, in the Islamic Republic.

Two such Khanophiles are Awab Alvi and Faisal Javed.

Alvi is a tall, soft-spoken and self-declared geek who signs his emails as BDS, MSc & TED Senior Fellow.

Although Alvi, is a University of Pennsylvania-trained orthodontist who says he does not hold any office in the burgeoning PTI, the 36-year-old's non-stop Twitter feed gives him away as Khan's constantly-connected social media wizard.  His user ID, Teeth Maestro, one of the best known in Pakistani cyberspace, hints at both his full-time hospital job in Karachi and his part-time political potency.

His blogs generate as much revenue as a successful small business, and the official site of the PTI that he helps administer often crashes because of the high traffic his online events generate.  Alvi says the PTI has a 25-strong social media team featuring "volunteers scattered all over the globe."

More Pakistan coverage from NBC News

Faisal Javed, 31, is a telecom executive by day and a PTI deputy secretary by political leaning. He spends Monday to Friday at the chic Islamabad headquarters of Telenor, leading the Scandinavian cellular giant's advertisement buying and content strategy for Pakistan.

 But his evenings and weekends are reserved for the PTI.  Javed, who opens rallies for Khan, is known nationally as Khan's "stage secretary," introducing him to crowds across the country. His easy confidence and broadcaster's voice make him one of the more prominent young faces of Khan's media-savvy corps.

Behind the scenes at Khan's first Google+ Hangout, the zeal to replicate Obama's PR accomplishments was obvious.  As soon as Khan rolled in (along with a small army of assistants, advisers and bodyguards), Alvi and his team adopted a very American, no-nonsense mood that is not typical of Pakistani culture.

They kicked out all people dubbed "non-essentials" and started what seemed like a haphazard pre-battle briefing.

"How many people are watching me?" Khan asked.

"Thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions might be watching," said Alvi and his lieutenants speaking over each other.

Khan: "What does this mean, 'Google Hangout'?"

Alvi/his geeks: "People submitted questions, and then voted in the most questions. In three days, 15,000 questions were submitted and 13,000 questions were crowd-sourced via (text messages)."

Khan: "Is this live?"

Alvi/his geeks: "Yes! Obama has done it too! Ten people from all over the country and the world will interact with you. The questions and questioners have been chosen. All you have to do is answer them."

Americans ignore great risks, travel to Pakistan to protest US drone strike

The audio wouldn't connect for 20 minutes after the Hangout was scheduled, and even as the event went online, some anchors on Pakistan's infamous conspiracy-theory driven national television denounced the event as a "drama" which was "staged" and "not live," much to Alvi and his team's chagrin.  

A small Twitter/Facebook skirmish between the Khan camp and his detractors later ensued, where both sides argued over the "reality" of the Hangout. The online battle lasted about a week.

But overall the Hangout event went pretty much as planned. Khan waxed eloquent about the economy, militancy, America, education and Pakistan's several other existential crises. He promised to raze the walls of governors' mansions, pledged to make them public libraries and explained progressive taxation to a female college student.

In what was perhaps the most important sign of success, the event caused #HangoutwithIK to trend on Twitter. But what really made political history in Pakistan was that the national conversation of the country was fully online and not broadcast on television and radio for the first time. 

In Pakistan's largest city, 'Old Glory' is flammable and profitable

Later, Javed unwound with a Marlboro.

"You know why he did it? You know how he handled all those questions? Because he's neat and clean and has nothing to hide," he said.

What of the rural heartland?
Still, even if Khan's PTI wins seats in parliament on the back of his social-media campaign, he is still a long way from power, some analysts say. 

"The next step, to premiership, goes through the dusty, deceitful and a whole-lot-less-plugged-in territory of Pakistan's rural heartland," political editor Peshimam says.

Most of Pakistan's civilian power players have traditionally relied on the country's teeming rural areas for their support-bases.

Asif Ali Zardari's Pakistan People's Party, which leads the current coalition government, is entrenched in rural Sindh  -- the country's second-most populous province. Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N) has always relied on, and thus come to dominate, the lush swathes of central and northern Punjab.

Aid workers become targets in Pakistan

While Khan is pushing hard to topple the de facto but unofficial two-party system by becoming a third force via social media, Pakistan remains a poor and rural-majority country where just 20 million of its 180-million people are connected to the Internet.

"Several polls show that as a leader Imran Khan is very popular," says Raza Rumi, director of policy and programs at Islamabad-based think tank The Jinnah Institute. "(But) there are methodological problems with such surveys and often their urban bias has also been called into question.

"Khan will emerge as a political player in the next parliament but it would be premature to say what would be the strength of his party," Rumi added. "His huge presence on social media is linked to a substantial following, especially in the young segment of population. There is a strong relationship here. But to assume that Facebook or Twitter rankings will result in electoral gains across Pakistan would be wrong."

But Khanophiles like Javed, the telecom executive, aren't discouraged by such such sober assessments. 

"We can't ignore this medium.  There are two million of us [supporting PTI on social media]. And those two million have millions of friends and family members," he said during preparations for the Google+ Hangout session. 

"And while you may be right again that those two million are largely in the cities, they are a degree or two away from spreading our message to the towns and villages. And that's good enough for me."

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HEBRON, West Bank – “By Participating, We Can!” that slogan has made a group of women in Hebron who are challenging male dominance the talk of their famously conservative Palestinian city.

Hebron, the West Bank’s largest city with 250,000 Palestinian residents, will go to the polls to choose city officials for the first time since 1976 on Oct. 20. And it will be the first time that one of the candidate lists on the ballot is made up entirely of women – teachers, civil-servants, business women and volunteers.   

The road taken by these women has not, however, been easy.

They have faced tremendous opposition from the local community, including comments directly to the women such as “you are wasting your time.”  

But Maysoun Qawasmi, leader of the bloc, and a 43-year-old mother of three sons and two daughters, remains undaunted.

---

Challenging the status quo
Qawasmi explained that the women initially faced legal objections to forming an all-female political bloc.

“I researched everything I could about election laws until I found out that there was no law against an all-female party competing,” Qawasmi said. 

She said some members of her own family initially resisted her challenging the status quo given the importance of tribal values woven throughout the fabric of society here.

For example, she explained that a local belief states, “No matter where a woman reaches, her brain remains small.”

But Qawasmi, who wears a headscarf and describes herself as secular, has not lived by those words. She is a journalist and human rights activist. Politics are new to her, but she does not believe that her secularism puts her at any kind of political disadvantage.

“I go down and talk to people. I always tell my kids that social skills are more important than intellectual skills,” she said.

As a member of a prominent family clan in Hebron, her family name has been advantageous.

“We have a good CV and this is beneficial. But I am also up against five other candidates from the Qawasmi family. Besides, almost three quarters of my family clan support Hamas, so that’s at least 20,000 votes gone,” she said. (However, the Islamic group Hamas say they are boycotting this election). 

The idea of forming an all-female bloc stemmed from five years of work empowering women. For her and those around her, she had already crossed customary boundaries by becoming the manager of the Palestinian Wafa News Agency in Hebron.

The bloc had initially recruited 50 potential qualified candidates – but that number whittled down to 11.

“Many high-caliber women had to pull out for various reasons,” she said. “We had a highly qualified woman with a Ph.D. who had to pull out when a brother chose to run for elections in the same family; the male is given priority over the woman.”

Generally, running as a bloc increases the chances of getting more votes leading to a higher number of seats in the municipality. Qawasmi believes that her bloc is likely to gain support from young men and women.

‘Women should represent society, but not to this extent’
Not everyone however, agrees with her vision.

Wadie, a 35-year-old chef from Hebron, offered his opinion on the matter.

“Our religion does not give a woman the right to enter the Shura Council (Consultative Council). It dignifies her to be in her house,” said Wadie, only chose to share his first name.

“I personally don’t believe she will get votes except from the Qawasmi family. If Qawasmi succeeds she will be fought against, she is not liked because she encourages freedom.”

He added a religious argument to his opposition. “Eighty percent of Hebron is religious…I have to stick to the book of God. Women should represent society, but not to this extent.”

Wadie’s opinion may represent a high percentage of the men in Hebron, but there are others who are looking at more than gender with their vote. 

“It’s not a man or woman thing, people judge according to who works harder. If the rest of the bloc was as strong as [Qawasmi] they would have a chance at winning,” said Issa Amr, a 33-year-old male resident of Hebron.

Hoping other women will follow
For now, Qawasmi is satisfied that the bloc has been officially registered.

“I want to do what I can do. I want to do what must be done by decision makers and prioritize real issues that have not been addressed by the municipality,” she said. “I hope this will enhance the role of women in the political sphere at the larger level. I do expect women in other locations to follow.”   

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