Without fanfare, China passed the United States in December to become the world's leading importer of oil – the first time in nearly 40 years that the U.S. didn’t own that dubious distinction. That same month, North Dakota, Ohio and Pennsylvania together produced 1.5 million barrels of oil a day -- more than Iran exported.

As those data points demonstrate, a dramatic shift is occurring in how energy is being produced and consumed around the world – one that could lead to far-reaching changes in the geopolitical order.

U.S. policy makers, intelligence analysts and other experts are beginning to grapple with the ramifications of such a change, which could bring with it both great benefits for the U.S. and potentially dangerous consequences, including the risk of upheaval in countries and regions heavily dependent on oil exports. 

But many experts say the U.S. would be the big winner, in position to reshape its foreign policy and boost its global influence. 

"People already are looking at the U.S. differently, seeing the U.S. as much more competitive in the world,” said energy analyst and author Dan Yergin, saying that he first noticed the change in the world view of the U.S. at the World Economic Forum in January in Davos, Switzerland.

Slideshow: Drilling down and out in Texas

Jim Seida / NBC News

Watch a drilling crew at work near the small town of Garden City, Texas, as they drill an oil well that eventually will extend more than a mile deep and a mile sideways in the Permian Basin.

Launch slideshow

As detailed in the first two installments of Power Shift, an NBC News/CNBC special report, the United States is reaping the benefits of an energy boom created by new drilling technologies that have unlocked vast domestic oil and natural gas reserves. Coupled with decreasing demand due to energy efficiency and continued cultivation of alternative energy sources, an increasing number of experts believe the U.S. could achieve energy independence by the end of the decade – realizing a dream born during the gas crisis of 1973.

But who would be the global winners and losers in such a scenario?

Most U.S. policy makers and experts agree that the U.S. and its allies – particularly its North American neighbors -- would be the biggest beneficiaries.

Boom helps Iran sanctions stick
In fact, they say, the West already has realized one major benefit: the success of international sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.

Carlos Pascual, the State Department’s coordinator for international energy affairs, noted last month at the CERAWEEK energy conference in Houston that increased U.S. oil production, coupled with a boost in exports from Iraq and Libya, has kept oil prices stable despite the loss, because of sanctions, of up to 1.5 million barrels a day in Iranian exports.

“What this has taught us, and helped underscore, is that within the world we live in today, hard security issues and energy policy issues have become fundamentally intertwined,” he said.

NBC News

Interactive map: Where the US produces its energy. Click to enlarge.

Yergin, who also is a CNBC energy consultant and author of the energy-focused nonfiction best-sellers "The Quest" and "The Prize," put it this way: "People talk of the future impact. The increase in U.S oil production has already had an impact: Sanctions wouldn't have been effective without U.S. oil production. …  We've added (within the last year) almost as much as Iran was exporting before sanctions.”

Hossein Moussavian, a former Iranian ambassador to Germany and nuclear negotiator who's now a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University, said "the radicals" in Tehran failed to foresee the changing energy picture, believing that sanctions wouldn't be imposed and that, if they were, they wouldn't work because oil prices would surge.

"The Iranian mistake was to believe …  the threats of referring Iran to the United Nations Security Council, imposing sanctions, was just a bluff," he said.

In the longer term, observers say that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and many of its member nations are likely to be the biggest losers if the U.S. continues to cut oil imports, likely decreasing oil prices in the process.

"A dramatic expansion of U.S. production could … push global spare capacity to exceed 8 million barrels per day, at which point OPEC could lose price control and crude oil prices would drop, possibly sharply," the U.S. intelligence community's internal think tank, the National Intelligence Council, said in its “Global Trends 2030” report in December. "Such a drop would take a heavy toll on many energy producers who are increasingly dependent on relatively high energy prices to balance their budgets."

With some analysts predicting that oil prices could drop as low as $70 to $90 a barrel – down from the current price of nearly $110 per barrel of Brent crude oil – a “scramble” among OPEC members for market share could ensue, said Edward Morse, an energy analyst with Citigroup and co-author of a recent report on titled “Energy 2020: Independence Day.”

An International Monetary Fund analysis indicates that many major oil-producing states need more than that lowest price level to meet their budgets and would be forced to increase output or reduce spending, which could trigger unrest. Among them, according to the report: Iran, Libya and Russia, at $117 a barrel; Iraq, $112; Yemen, $237; and the UAE, $84.

Iraq, which has had production from its rich oil fields curtailed by war or sanctions for half of the 53 years of OPEC’s existence, poses another challenge to the organization.

Now that it’s finally free of such interference, its production is increasing by between 500,000 and 900,000 barrels a year, making it the second fastest growing oil-producing country in the world after the U.S. 

“And, by God, no one’s going to impose any quota limitations on them,” said Morse, referring to Iraq’s OPEC partners. “So part of the challenge to OPEC is internal as well as external.”

Can Saudis maintain market-maker role?
Analysts say OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia, which controls vast reserves of oil and needs $71 a barrel to meet its budget, according to the IMF, will do everything it can to remain the market-maker. But in that role, it will face new challenges, they say.

“Over time, it should become increasingly challenging for Saudi Arabia to ‘overproduce’ and bring down prices to punish wayward OPEC members; without this disciplinary mechanism, it is unclear whether OPEC can remain cohesive,” according to the Citigroup report.

For its part, OPEC professes to be not unduly alarmed by the U.S. oil and natural gas boom. It highlights the "considerable uncertainties" surrounding wells drilled using hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” and associated technologies.

Yergin said he believes that the Saudis will be able to withstand the turbulence, and that they will provide a buffer for the organization’s lesser producers.

“It's too quick to write the obit for OPEC,” he said. “… The Saudis will figure it out. They are re-orientated to Asian markets, turning left instead of right.”

But some members of the oil cartel -- particularly Nigeria and Angola -- already are feeling the impact of the U.S. production surge, according to the Citigroup report. U.S. imports from the two countries dropped to 700,000 barrels a day at the end of 2012, down from 1.6 million barrels in 2007. That’s because U.S. production of light, sweet crude -- the kind of oil the West African nations produce -- has burgeoned in recent years. Citigroup forecasts that by the end of 2013, the market for Nigerian oil at Gulf Coast refineries could entirely dry up.

Longer term, say by 2020, cheaper heavy oil from Canada, freed from the so-called oil sands by new recovery technologies, could push similar oil from Venezuela out of the U.S. Gulf Coast market,  (assuming the Obama administration approves construction of the Keystone XL pipeline to carry it), according to forecasts.

Mexico also is expected to increase production, offering the U.S. access to another convenient and friendly provider.

"The Eagle Ford formation in Texas extends into Mexico and if you look at the Gulf, you'll see thousands of black dots marking oil platforms on the U.S. side but nothing on the Mexican side,” said Yergin. “That's changing. There is a political consensus among the three major parties on energy. You will see less immigration from Mexico. Mexico could become more of a BRIC (the term used for fast-developing economies like Brazil, Russia, India and China) than Brazil."

Besides guaranteeing a stable domestic energy supply, those energy resources add tools to the U.S. diplomatic toolbox, said David L. Phillips, director of the Peace-building and Human Rights Program at Columbia University.

"Why permit ourselves to be held hostage to regimes hostile to our national interests and who give safe harbor to those who would do us harm?" he asked. "… The glaring example is Venezuela. (Hugo) Chavez was so strongly anti-American and he was providing energy to our enemies. They should pay the price for non-cooperation."

Current and former diplomats note that the U.S. also could use its increased natural gas production to weaken rival Russia’s near monopoly on natural gas exports to Europe, via its state-controlled energy giant Gazprom. Already, declining prices fueled by the U.S. boom have benefited the European market.

"What has emerged is a competitive market that allowed the utilities of Western Europe to renegotiate their contract with Gazprom, affecting both prices and financing terms," said the State Department’s Pascual.

Adding to the pressure, the U.S. firm Cheniere Energy last month signed a 20-year deal to export enough liquefied natural gas to the British utility Centrica PLC to heat 1.8 million homes starting in 2018 – the first pact of its kind.

Growth slowing in China, India
As for China and India, both of which are expected to import increasing amounts of energy for years to come, analysts see indications that economic growth is slowing in both countries.

“In a pattern similar to the abrupt slowdown in demand growth seen in the Asian Tigers in the 1990s, Chinese demand growth has slowed to a more tepid 3 (percent) to 5 percent rate as compared to the double-digit growth seen in the early 2000s,” said a Citigroup report by analyst Seth Kleinman released last week.

That slowdown is in part due to the diminishing competitive edge that China enjoys over the U.S., Yergin said.

“Chinese wages are going up 20 percent a year. U.S. energy efficiency and increased production helps the U.S. in the mix on the global competitive landscape, he said, noting that Dow Chemical recently announced it will invest $4 billion in U.S. petrochemical production. “…That doesn’t happen without the U.S. advantage in energy.”

Citigroup's Morse and other analysts said the slowing Chinese economy and energy insecurity could prompt China to more militarization in the Far East -- a dangerous development in a region already beset by nationalist disputes and where the U.S. is expected to focus increasing attention. But none suggests that the Chinese are likely to challenge the United States as a global power, saying Beijing has neither the military assets nor the desire. Its strategy remains regional and attuned to "short-range engagements," Morse wrote.

The impact of the rebalancing of global energy production could be more severe in other nations.

Trevor Houser, a former energy analyst in the Obama administration State Department, worries about the prospect of failed states.

"If you look at the consequences of more U.S. production and reduced sales from OPEC, some would see that as a benefit," said Houser, now a partner with New York-based Rhodium Group, a global market analysis firm. "But starving those economies of oil revenue will surely have disruptive effects. It is not necessarily a good development for U.S. foreign policy and geopolitical stability in general."

AP file/Hassan Ammar

A U.S. F-18 fighter jet, left, lands on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln as a U.S. destroyer sails alongside during exercises in the Persian Gulf in 2012.

Houser also said that U.S. energy independence could lead to isolationist policies, but will not insulate Americans from global price disruptions.

"The price Americans pay at the pump will still be determined by events in the global oil market, yet falling U.S. oil imports (are) going to reduce political support for safeguarding those global markets, and no one is willing or able to step up to the plate to replace us,” he said. “... The U.S. economy will still be vulnerable if someone blows up a Saudi port."

More from Power Shift, an NBC News/CNBC special report:

Part 1: Energy boom dawning in America

Part 2:  Oil, gas sector fuels US economy

That issue – specifically, “Do we leave the Middle East once our energy needs are secure?” – came up at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January, said Yergin, recalling that “an oil minister came up to me and said, ‘Please don’t leave us.’”

Pascual, the State Department official, argues that such fears are overblown.

"These changes in no way change the U.S. commitment to global security, to peace and stability in the Middle East and to security in the transit lanes,” he said, referring to oil shipping routes. “Some people have asked is the United States going to become disinterested. The answer is no. It is absolutely in our self-interest to stay engaged.”

Richard Engel is NBC News' chief foreign correspondent; Robert Windrem is a senior investigative producer. 

Coming next Monday: Digging into the environmental consequences of 'fracking' 

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TEL AVIV — On a wide beach in Tel Aviv, I recently watched two Israeli men — wearing tight neon bathing suits that would make many Americans blush — play a game of paddle ball. They impressively smashed their serves and volleys with decisive forehands and backhands and dove in the sand to make saves.

A few feet away, a couple of young women in skimpy bikinis with tattoos on their ankles and shoulders stretched into yoga positions in the shade of a wooden gazebo.

You can buy ice cream and cold beer on the beach and nobody seems to litter.

If Tel Aviv’s beachfront sounds like a island of paradise in the midst of the turbulent Middle East — that’s because it is. And Israeli officials intend to keep it that way.

While the chaos unleashed by the Arab Spring continues to reverberate across the region, Israel, a small country the size of New Jersey, has been busily building about 500 miles of fence, walls and barricades to keep the surrounding Arab world out.

Keeping a lid on Gaza
Just 45 miles south of the paddle ball players in neon, Hamas runs the Gaza Strip, the narrow Palestinian territory squeezed between Egypt and Israel. 

Hamas is a Palestinian political party with an aggressive militant wing. At its rallies, Hamas supporters routinely chant that one day they will destroy Israel and that Palestinians will return to their homes where Jews now live. Hamas has long been Israel's enemy, but in the wake of the Arab Spring, the group is empowered like never before.

Just last November, Hamas and Israel fought a brief war. Hamas launched rockets at southern Israel, and for the first time in the group’s history, at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Many of the rockets were shot down by Israel’s U.S.-funded Iron Dome missile defense system.

More than 150 Palestinians and at least six Israelis were killed in the fighting. But Hamas walked away with significant political recognition. 

Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi sent his prime minister to Gaza during the fighting to show solidarity with Hamas. That would never have happened under former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. 

Mubarak didn’t trust Hamas and kept them weak. In fact, during the previous, and far more severe, Gaza-Israel war in early 2009, Mubarak effectively helped Israel target Hamas by cutting off its border, denying escape and resupply routes. 

Nir Elias / Reuters, file

Israeli soldiers watch as an Iron Dome launcher fires an interceptor rocket near the southern city of Beersheba on November 17, 2012 .

But ever since the Arab Spring reset the Middle East and unleashed anti-Israel passions that Arab strongmen — like Mubarak — once kept at bay, Israel feels threatened. And they are fortifying their defenses.

Gaza tunnel
Now getting in and out of the Gaza Strip is increasingly difficult and bizarre.   

When you exit Israel, you must first pass through a series of metal detectors and X-ray machines, before entering a long Israeli-controlled tunnel.

The tunnel is above ground, fenced in on both sides, and with a wire roof. It runs along the ground like a metal snake. It's about 20 feet wide and stretches for about a mile with a dog-leg turn in the middle. There are cement blocks in the tunnel so you can’t drive a car through it. You have to walk, dragging your bags. It feels like you’re passing through a wormhole from a beach community into a prison. 

Making the tunnel stranger still is its quiet loneliness. There aren’t any Israeli guards or officers in the tunnel. As you walk with your bags, every few hundred yards you come to a closed gate. A camera and microphone over the gate turn on as you approach. You call out to an unseen guard that you’d like to advance and, if he approves, the gate clicks open and you move to the next barrier.

Egypt fence
Beyond Gaza, about 100 miles to the southeast of the gazebos shading women on Tel Aviv’s beach, is Israel’s border with Egypt. For decades, the border was protected naturally by the bare and jagged Sinai Mountains and the open desert.  

Moshe Milner / Israeli government via EPA, file

A photograph supplied by the Israeli Government Press Office in January 2013 shows a panoramic view of some of the border fence Israel has completed separating Israel from Egypt.

But now with Mubarak gone, a metal snake is going up along the Egyptian border, too.  

Israel is building a 150 mile fence along the Egyptian border. It’s nearly finished — with only 6.2 miles left to go.

The fence has two layers, is 20 feet high and is topped with razor wire. It also plunges several feet under the sand, so you can’t dig underneath it. Israel clearly doesn’t feel the mountains and desert offer enough protection anymore.

The Wall
Back on the beach in Tel Aviv, few people talk about their increasingly hostile neighbors in Gaza and Egypt, or the fences that keep them out. But other barriers are even closer.

Marko Djurica / Reuters, file

A Palestinian rides a bicycle past a mural on the controversial Israeli barrier depicting the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, at Qalandiya checkpoint near the West Bank city of Ramallah on November 26, 2012.

Just 40 miles east of Tel Aviv, a giant wall cuts off the West Bank — the landlocked Palestinian territory surrounded on three sides by Israel, and one side by Jordan. Palestinians call it the "apartheid wall" because it keeps them penned in. Israel built the wall during a spate of Hamas suicide attacks and since its construction the number of bombings in Israel has plummeted.

Keeping Syria out, too
About 100 miles north of the Tel Aviv, a new fence is going up along the border with Syria. Only about 10 miles of that barrier, which looks just like the one with Egypt, is finished. The rest is going up fast.

As I walked along the new fence with Syria with our cameraman and producer a few days ago, we were stopped by a group of Israeli border guards who politely told us to leave. 

Atef Safadi / EPA

Israeli employees work on the new border fence at the Israeli-Syrian border, south of the Golan Heights, in Israel, on March 8, 2013.

The border guards, based on a hill overlooking the fence, told me they had seen fighting between Syrian government troops and rebels just a few hundred yards away from their base. The chief of staff of the Israeli military said at a conference this month that he believes it’s only a matter of time before armed factions in Syria turn their attention to Israel.

"We see terror organizations that are increasingly gaining footholds in the territory and they are fighting against Assad. Guess what? We’ll be next in line," said Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz.

'Fear index' down
As Israel waits for the political storm in the Arab world to pass, it has become a fortress nation, what some experts call a "garrison state." 

Perhaps it’s human nature, but living in a bubble has some advantages. Fences and walls can be effective and even soothing, at least for those who build them.

Slideshow: Israel and Gaza: 8 days of violence

Oliver Weiken / EPA

Israel's military said it had accomplished its objectives while Hamas claimed victory after the two sides exchanged deadly airstrikes and rocket attacks for over a week.

Launch slideshow

A study by Haifa University’s National Security Center published this month in the Israel newspaper Haaretz said Israelis have never felt more secure in their borders. The so-called annual "fear index” is at an all-time low. 

"People in Israel are simply optimistic. As a result of a hundred years of Zionism that met with difficult challenges, the public's conceptions are that we have overcome that, and that we will overcome it in the future," Prof. Gabriel Ben-Dor, the director of the study, told Haaretz.

But there’s twist. Israel’s Arab citizens, who may be more in touch with the profound changes in the region that they watch unfolding on Arabic-language television, were far less convinced about Israel’s security than Jewish respondents to the survey.

"It is possible the Arab population is seriously and intensively following what is happening across the border, and they judge the situation differently," said Ben-Dor.

The Israeli military is certainly aware that things have changed for Israel.

But that apparently hasn’t sunk in for most Israelis, or, just like people on the beaches of Tel Aviv, perhaps they don’t want to think about it.

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A suicide bomber blew himself up at an entrance to the U.S. Embassy compound in Ankara, Turkey, on Friday, officials said.

U.S. State Department and Turkish interior ministry officials said the bomber and a Turkish guard were killed in the attack, which took place about 1:15 p.m. local time (6:15 a.m. ET).

"Clearly, it’s a terrorist attack," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said in a media briefing, adding that the U.S. condemns the hit in strong terms.

The bomber, who was wearing a suicide vest, made it to the first X-ray machine in a screening area leading to the visa section, police sources said, and then detonated the device.

The Turkish security guard standing nearby was killed, but two guards on the other side of the checkpoint, behind bulletproof glass, survived. In the immediate aftermath of the attack, sources had said three people were thought to have been killed.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said the bomber was a member of the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front, or DHKPC, a far-left group designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

That group, started in the late 1970s, "has periodically targeted both Turkish officials and been virulently anti-U.S. and anti-NATO during the Gulf War and continuing to today," Michael Leiter, former director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, said in an interview with NBC News.

"During the past several months Turkish officials have targeted the DHKPC and it is possible that this was in retaliation for those police raids," he said, adding that the group's reach was believed to be limited to Turkey and the immediate region.

There was, however, no claim of responsibility.

Nuland said a Turkish citizen was hurt and is in "serious condition." Reuters reported this victim was Didem Tuncay, a journalist on her way in to the embassy to meet U.S. Ambassador Francis Ricciardone. Several U.S. and Turkish staff members were hit by flying debris and treated at the scene.

"We're very sad of course that we lost one of our Turkish guards at the gate," Ricciardone said, according to Reuters, thanking Turkish authorities for their response.

Turkish television footage taken shortly after the attack showed smoke rising from the area and a heavily damaged door that led to a side street.

Slideshow: Blast hits US Embassy in Turkey

A suicide bomber blew himself up at an entrance to the embassy compound in Ankara.

Launch slideshow

Turkish media reports identified the bomber as Ecevit Sanli. Reuters said Sanli was previously involved in attacks on a police station and a military staff college in Istanbul in 1997.

Nuland said the attack happened on an external perimeter access site whose level of security protection ensured that the strike wasn't worse.

The White House said Friday it was not yet clear who was responsible for the bombing.

"The attack itself was clearly an act of terror," Jay Carney, White House spokesman, said in a briefing with reporters.

The State Department said the U.S. will cooperate with the Turkish side on the investigation into the attack.

Erdogan, who was attending a ceremony in Istanbul when the blast happened, said the attack "shows that we need to fight together everywhere in the world against these terrorist elements." 

In an emergency message Friday, the State Department said Americans were "advised to not visit the Consulates in Istanbul, Adana or the Embassy in Ankara until further notice."

"The Department of State advises U.S. citizens traveling or residing in Turkey to be alert to the potential for violence, to avoid those areas where disturbances have occurred, and to avoid demonstrations and large gatherings," the message said.

In Berlin on Friday, Vice President Joe Biden said that he appreciated an "expression of sympathy" over the attack from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, saying it reinforced the "very close counterterrorism cooperation that exists between Germany and the United States."

On Sept. 11 last year, U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans were killed in an attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, prompting concern about security for diplomats.

On Jan. 23, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that she took responsibility for not adequately protecting U.S. personnel in Benghazi. Her voice choked with emotion as she remembered the return of "flag-draped caskets" and putting her arms around relatives of those who died. 

Nuland said on Friday that after Benghazi, every U.S. post in the world reviewed its security. She added that the embassy in Ankara is one of the posts due for a complete compound overhaul. The building housing the embassy was built in the 1950s and needs a full upgrade, Nuland said.

Homegrown Islamic militants tied to al-Qaida have carried out suicide bombings in Istanbul, killing 58, in 2003. The targets were the British consulate, a British bank and two synagogues. 

In 2008, an attack blamed on al-Qaida-affiliated militants outside the U.S. Consulate in Istanbul left three assailants and three policemen dead. 

In the November 2003 attack on the British consulate, a suspected Islamic militant rammed an explosive-laden pickup truck into the main gate, killing British Consul-General, Roger Short, and his assistant, Lisa Hallworth. 

The State Department says on its website that 15 people who claimed they were associated with al-Qaida were arrested in July 2011 for gathering explosive materials in preparation for an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Ankara. 

Mehmet Ali Ozcan / EPA

Turkish police secure the area after an explosion at an entrance to the U.S. Embassy compound in Ankara Friday.

It added that the July plot and other incidents "show a willingness on the part of some terrorist groups to attack identifiably Western targets. The possibility of terrorist attacks, from both transnational and indigenous groups, remains high."

The State Department says the PKK Kurdish rebel group is the "most active terrorist organization in Turkey." It said the PKK had historically targeted Turkish government and military interests, but had recently "threatened increased violent activity in Turkey’s urban areas, and there is credible information suggesting that it intends to continue targeting tourist areas as well."

Earlier this month, about 400 U.S. personnel arrived at Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base to support the deployment of a NATO Patriot missile battery to help defend the country from possible incursions by Syria’s forces during that country’s ongoing civil war.

Reuters, The Associated Press and NBC News Staff Writers Kari Huus, Alastair Jamieson and Becky Bratu contributed to this report.

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Full Turkey coverage from NBCNews.com

NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel and his crew believed they would not make it out of Syria alive during their five days of captivity, Engel said Thursday.

"There was no doubt that these were violent people and that they could have executed us at any time," Engel told NBC News' Savannah Guthrie in an interview Thursday night on "Rock Center."

Engel, 39, and his team disappeared shortly after crossing into northwest Syria from Turkey on Dec. 13. He and his team had already been captured as his last taped report from Aleppo was appearing on "NBC Nightly News" that evening. 

The network had not been able to make contact with them until learning that they had been freed  Monday. The final member of the team, Ian Rivers, who provides technical support for NBC News, crossed safely from Syria into Turkey early Wednesday.

The network said there was no claim of responsibility, no contact with the captors and no request for ransom during the time the crew was missing.

After entering Syria, Engel and his team were abducted and tossed into the back of a truck before being transported to an unknown location believed to be near the small town of Ma'arrat Misrin. During their captivity, they were blindfolded and bound but otherwise were not physically harmed, the network said.

Watch World News videos on NBCNews.com

But their captors submitted them to what Engel called "psychological torture," leading them to believe that they were doomed. From time to time, "they were making us choose which one of us would be executed," he said.

Asked whether they ever thought they were going to die, all five men raised their hands. "Every day," Engel said.

Early Monday evening local time, the prisoners were being moved to a new location in a vehicle when their captors ran into a checkpoint manned by members of the Ahrar al-Sham brigade, a Syrian rebel group. There was a confrontation, and a firefight ensued. Two of the captors were killed, while an unknown number of others escaped, the network said.

Ghazi Balkiz, an NBC News producer, said that was the most nerve-racking time of all.

"I don't want to suffer to find out that this was not really happening," he said. "That would have been devastating."

Engel and his team were unharmed. Engel and several other members of the team remained in Syria until Tuesday morning when they made their way to the border and re-entered Turkey, the network said.

Updated at 8:15 a.m. ET: NBC News’ Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel and members of his network production team were freed from captors in Syria after a firefight at a checkpoint on Monday, five days after they were taken prisoner, NBC News said early Tuesday.

“After being kidnapped and held for five days inside Syria by an unknown group, NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel and his production crew members have been freed unharmed. We are pleased to report they are safely out of the country,” the network said in a statement.

“It is good to be here,” Engel said during a live appearance on TODAY from Turkey. “I’m very happy that we’re able to do this live shot this morning.”

Engel said that they were traveling with Syrian rebels when a group of about 15 gunmen “jumped out of the trees and bushes” and captured them.

'Psychological torture'
He said the gunmen executed one of the rebels “on the spot,” and later during their captivity they were subjected to mock executions while blindfolded and bound.

"We weren't physically beaten or tortured. It was a lot of psychological torture, threats of being killed," Engel said.

"They made us choose which one of us would be shot first and when we refused there were mock shootings. They pretended to shoot Ghazi [Balkiz, an NBC producer] several times,” Engel said.

Balkiz said that they had “worked with each other very well… we kept each other’s spirits up” during their ordeal. Cameraman John Kooistra said he had “made good with my maker” and had been “prepared to die many times.”

Engel said their captors “were talking openly about their loyalty to the government” of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

He said he had a “very good idea” about who they were -- members of the “shabiha” militia, loyal to Assad, trained by the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and allied with Lebanon-based group Hezbollah.

Engel said their captors’ plan was to use them to win the freedom of people held by the rebels.

“They captured us in order to carry out this exchange,” he said.

NBC News file

Richard Engel at the end of a reporting trip in Syria in July of this year.

Engel, 39, and his team disappeared shortly after crossing into northwest Syria from Turkey on Thursday. The network had not been able to contact them until learning that they had been freed on Monday.

The network said there was no claim of responsibility, no contact with the captors and no request for ransom during the time the crew was missing.

After entering Syria, Engel and his team were abducted, tossed into the back of a truck before being transported to an unknown location believed to be near the small town of Ma’arrat Misrin. During their captivity, they were blindfolded and bound, but otherwise not physically harmed, the network said.

Early Monday evening local time, the prisoners were being moved to a new location in a vehicle when their captors ran into a checkpoint manned by members of the Ahrar al-Sham brigade, a Syrian rebel group. There was a confrontation and a firefight ensued.  Two of the captors were killed, while an unknown number of others escaped, the network said.

The NBC News crew was unharmed in the incident. They remained in Syria until Tuesday morning when they made their way to the border and re-entered Turkey, the network said. They were to be evaluated and debriefed, but had communicated that everyone was in good health.

NBC News said it “expressed its gratitude to those who worked to gather information and secure the release of our colleagues.”

Engel is widely regarded as one of America’s leading foreign correspondents for his coverage of wars, revolutions and political transitions around the world over the last 15 years. Most recently, he was recognized for his outstanding reporting on the 2011 revolution in Egypt, the conflict in Libya and unrest throughout the Arab world. 

One of the only Western journalists to cover the entire war in Iraq , Engel was named chief foreign correspondent of NBC News in April 2008. He joined the network in May 2003.

The Syrian civil war began in March 2011, when demonstrators took to the streets to show support for the so-called Arab Spring uprisings sweeping across the Middle East and north Africa and to demand the resignation of Assad of the ruling Ba’ath Party. The following month, Assad deployed the Syrian army to quell the uprising, ordering troops to open fire on demonstrators. But despite the harsh crackdown, Assad’s troops and militias loyal to the government were unable to quell what soon became an armed uprising.

In the intervening months, the security situation in the country has continued to deteriorate amid increasingly fierce fighting between Syrian troops and a loose confederation of outgunned but increasingly emboldened rebel forces. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimated in November that more than 40,000 people had died in the fighting.

More world stories from NBC News:

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• 'We must restore the bond': Japan's new PM vows closer ties with US
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Follow World News from NBCNews.com on Twitter and Facebook

News analysis

Updated at 5:41 a.m. ET on Nov. 7: Barack Obama faces no shortage of foreign challenges as he enters his second term as commander in chief.

While it is impossible to predict what may come, here’s a look at 10 issues likely to emerge as priorities for his administration:

1. Possible Afghan collapse/civil war
The Afghan government has been propped up by American and NATO troops and money but has failed in its basic functions of establishing national trust, security and unity. Afghanistan could devolve into a civil war as U.S. troops draw down in 2014, with old rivalries re-emerging between the north and south/southeast.

Once again, the country could be torn by an ethnic war between the Pashtuns and the now-defunct Northern Alliance, a legion of Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara militias. The risk is that Afghan security forces will then split along ethnic lines and President Hamid Karzai, whom critics accuse of being an uncooperative U.S. ally, could become an even greater liability.

On a recent visit to Afghanistan I spoke to some Tajik villagers outside Kabul, who promised me they would start fighting once American troops leave. They said they would battle a group of pro-Taliban Pashtun villagers nearby. When asked if Karzai's troops would be able to stop a clash, one tribal elder told me, "The corrupt government in Kabul? It can't do anything."

The dangers of an Afghan collapse are many: Afghan deaths, a loss of American prestige, a loss of NATO prestige, a moral blow to U.S. troops and veterans, a Taliban resurgence, huge setbacks for women, and greater power for Pakistan and Pakistani extremists.

Read more Afghanistan coverage from NBCNews.com

Slideshow: Afghanistan: Nation at a crossroads

Aref Karimi / AFP - Getty Images

More than ten years after the beginning of the war, Afghanistan faces external pressure to reform as well as ongoing internal conflicts.

Launch slideshow

2. Possible Iran implosion or explosion
Iran, which is being pushed to a breaking point by U.S.-led currency and banking sanctions, won't simply sit back and watch its economy crumble. Persia is 7,000 years old and will fight to survive.

The increasingly isolated country is likely to act in one of three ways: accommodation and negotiation, weaponization, or diversion.

Faced with the crippling sanctions, Iran could simply decide it is paying too high a cost to pursue its nuclear program and could opt for negotiations and reconciliation with the United States and other members of the international community. This is clearly the preferred option of American leaders.

The other possibilities are more problematic. Iran could rush toward a nuclear capability, deciding the best way to survive is to obtain weapons so horrific that no one would dare attack. A nuclear program has arguably worked as a deterrent for North Korea and other states -- would Moammar Gadhafi have been deposed and summarily killed if Libya had had nuclear weapons? Iranians might not think so.

Source: Back-channel talks but no US-Iran deal on one-to-one nuclear meeting

A less risky approach would be to provoke a diversionary conflict through Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shiites in Bahrain, the Kurdistan Workers Party in Syria and Turkey, its position in the Strait of Hormuz -- or it could try to inflame anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment.

Iran also could try to attack the American economy through sabotage or cyber warfare. Cornered as it is, Iran could become the aggressor instead of -- as it sees itself -- the passive victim.

Slideshow: Everyday life in Iran

At schools, in shops, and on the streets of big cities and small towns, daily life plays out in Iran.

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How Iran acts is up to its choosing but it's hard to see how it won't act -- for better or worse -- as the sanctions continue to bite.

Read more Iran coverage from NBCNews.com

3. Rise of the Muslim Brotherhood
The Arab Spring has empowered the Muslim Brotherhood across the Middle East and beyond. It and other ideologically similar and allied groups run the governments of Egypt, Tunisia and Gaza.

In Syria, the Brotherhood has a strong presence among the rebels and in Yemen, it runs half the government and much of the state's day-to-day functions. In Jordan and Morocco, the Brotherhood is the main opposition to the countries' ruling royal families. In leaderless Libya, it is an increasingly organized voice. And in Algeria, the movement's officials warn that their revolution is coming.

The Muslim Brotherhood's influence in the Middle East is likely to evolve in one of two ways. Military regimes that have been pushed aside could fight back and launch counter-Islamic revolutions, clawing back the Brotherhood's gains and keeping it tied up in internal political battles. This is already starting to happen in Egypt.

Analysis: Egypt's big turn under the Muslim Brotherhood

Conversely, the Muslim Brotherhood could consolidate its gains and dominate electoral politics in the Middle East for the next several years.

For the United States, the rise of the Brotherhood is not in itself a major challenge. Most of its leaders say they want good relations and economic ties with Washington. The problem, however, is Israel. The Brotherhood is fundamentally anti-Israel, and Washington is fundamentally pro-Israel.

While analysts can debate which presidential candidate is closer to Israel, both have expressed their commitment to it and its security -- just as every U.S. president has done.

But the Muslim Brotherhood will not make the same commitments to Israel's integrity and security. While campaigning to win the election in Egypt, the Brotherhood held rallies featuring speakers who called for the restoration of the Islamic Caliphate with Jerusalem as its capital.

The Brotherhood does not understand why Washington chooses to befriend one small country at the expense of relations with millions of Arabs and over a billion Muslims. Washington rejects having to make this choice.

This rift could become a showdown and devolve into violence. The timing depends on American policy and outside provocations that can be either by design -- "peace" flotillas to Gaza, Hamas rockets, an Israeli assault on Gaza -- or by accident, such as bigoted and dumb Internet movies.

4. Cyber threat
The United States has spent a decade fighting terrorists with some notable and many debatable successes. But bombs aren't the only kind of threat. In fact, a successful cyber attack could cause national and international chaos far exceeding a bombing in a major U.S. city.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently warned about a possible cyber Pearl Harbor. Many military officials and analysts I know fully agree with him.

Panetta: Cyber intruders have already infiltrated US systems

5. Israeli strike on Iran
Israel may attack Iran's nuclear program if it believes sanctions are failing. The strike would likely delay but not stop the program, experts say. For the time being, Israel has decided to wait and see what impact the international sanctions have.

If Iran chooses a quick rush to make a bomb, Israel will most likely change course and opt for a military solution. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made that point abundantly clear when he drew a red line at the United Nations and held up a picture of a bomb.

Read more Israel coverage from NBCNews.com

6. Revival of al-Qaida/Ansar al-Sharia
Al-Qaida's leaders have been killed and hunted, but the group hasn't gone away. Many al-Qaida factions have re-branded themselves under a new name: Ansar al-Sharia (partisans of Islamic law). Some of the militants also are finding new comfortable homes in the post-Arab Spring Middle East, blending into Salafist (Sunni fundamentalist) movements.

7. Rift with Pakistan
Pakistan and the United States have been locked in an uncomfortable marriage since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, and arguably long before that.

US, Pakistan should 'divorce,' ex-ambassador to Washington says

Critics accuse Pakistan of taking American counter-terrorism money and military support, while at the same time supporting terrorist groups.

Slideshow: Pakistan: A nation in turmoil

Muhammed Muheisen / AP

Images of daily life, political pursuits, religious rites and deadly violence.

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If the United States cuts off Pakistan -- which may happen as Washington becomes less reliant on Pakistani supply routes into Afghanistan -- Islamabad could become more belligerent, which would cause relations to deteriorate further. The withdrawal from Afghanistan will change the costly status quo that has existed with Pakistan since 9/11, and that change is unlikely to go smoothly.

Read more Pakistan coverage from NBCNews.com

8. Mexico and the growing war on drugs
According to some estimates, Mexico has become the most dangerous country in the world. Around 50,000 people have been killed in the country's drug wars. It is unclear if Mexico's President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto will be able to contain the violence, which has spread south to Central America and is showing signs of leaking north into the United States.

Read more Mexico coverage from NBCNews.com

Slideshow: Narco culture permeates Mexico, leaks across border

Mexico's drug war is also part of a drug culture with roots in music, movies and even religion

Launch slideshow

9. US 'pivot' to Asia/China slowdown
In 2011, China overtook Japan to become the world's second-largest economy after the United States. The Obama administration has acknowledged China's growing military and political power, and has pledged to "pivot" or deploy more than half of the U.S.' naval assets to the Asia-Pacific region by the end of the decade. This, some argue, has contributed to souring relations between the two powers.

Adding to the troubles, China isn't cheap anymore and Chinese workers are no longer as willing to accept poor conditions and little pay. Strikes are increasingly common. Removing dissent from Chinese Internet sites is a full-time job for government censors. Growth rates remain high, but the cost of living and labor demands are going up.

Factories are already moving out of China to cheaper labor markets in Indonesia and Bangladesh. If China's economic growth slows for a prolonged period, the world will be dramatically impacted. The country's economic expansion has driven up oil prices and has made parts of the Middle East, Russia and Brazil exceptionally rich. Could labor unrest threaten the ruling Communist Party's grip? Any move from this giant creates a huge wake that will quickly wash onto American shores.

Read more China coverage on NBC's Behind The Wall

10. United States: Drifting?
For a decade, the United States has made fighting terrorism its main foreign policy goal. This is by definition a reactionary policy and is limited in focus -- without a global vision or sense of destiny.

In contrast, American rivals appear to have grand plans in place. Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, seems intent on regaining its Soviet and Tsarist glory. Turkey is flexing its muscles regionally and is re-establishing some of its Ottoman legacy and prominence. China is looking to consolidate its hold on swathes of Asia and beyond.

Full coverage: NBCNews.com's The World is Watching series

But what does the United States want to do? What is our goal? It is impossible to be influential if we don't know where we are going -- and any malaise would be damaging to the national interest. World powers must move to survive. Drifting is sinking.

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