DAMASCUS, Syria — Bashar Assad vowed on Friday to rid the country of Muslim extremists whom he blamed for a suicide blast that killed dozens of people, including a top Sunni preacher who was a staunch supporter of the Syrian president.

And, in a warning to rebels battling to topple his regime, the Syrian leader pledged that his troops will "wipe out" and clear the country of the "forces of darkness."

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Assad's statement came as the Syrian health ministry raised the death toll from Thursday night's bombing in Damascus to 49, after seven of the wounded died overnight in hospital.

In the attack, a suicide bomber blew himself up inside a mosque in the heart of the Syrian capital, killing Sheik Mohammad Said Ramadan al-Buti as he was giving a sermon. The blast also wounded 84 people.

The government declared Saturday as a day of mourning and state-run Syrian TV halted its regular programs on Friday to air readings from the Muslim holy book, the Quran, as well as speeches by the late cleric.

His killing was one of the most stunning assassinations of the two-year civil war and marked a new low in the conflict.

While suicide bombings blamed on Islamic extremists fighting with the rebels have become common, the latest attack was the first time a suicide bomber detonated his explosives inside a mosque.

The grandson of the 84-year-old al-Buti was among those killed in the attack.

In the statement carried by Syria's state SUNA news agency, Assad said al-Buti represented true Islam in facing "the forces of darkness and extremist" ideology.

"Your blood and your grandson's, as well as that of all the nation's martyrs will not go in vain because we will continue to follow your thinking to wipe out their darkness and clear our country of them," Assad said.

Syria's crisis started in March 2011 as peaceful protests against Assad's authoritarian rule. The revolt turned into a civil war as some opposition supporters took up arms the fight a harsh government crackdown on dissent. The United Nations says more than 70,000 people have been killed since.

Al-Buti was the most senior religious figure to be killed in Syria's civil war and his slaying was a major blow to Assad.

The preacher had been a vocal supporter of the regime since the early days of Assad's father and predecessor, the late President Hafez Assad, providing a Sunni cover and legitimacy to their rule.

Sunnis are the majority sect in Syria while Assad is from the minority Alawite sect — an offshoot of Shiite Islam.

In a speech earlier this month, al-Buti had said it was "a religious duty to protect the values, the land and the nation" of Syria.

"There is no difference between the army and the rest of the nation," he said at the time — a clear endorsement of Assad's forces in their effort to crush the rebels.

The mosque bombing was also among the most serious security breaches in Damascus. In July, an attack that targeted a high-level government crisis meeting killed four top regime officials, including Assad's brother-in-law and the defense minister.

Last month, a car bomb that struck in the same area, which houses the headquarters of Syria's ruling Baath party, killed at least 53 people and wounded more than 200.

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Updated at 4:40 p.m. ET: ISLAMABAD — After a roadside bomb killed at least seven people near a Shiite procession in Pakistan on Saturday, the Pakistan Taliban warned that more attacks were coming.

The Pakistan Taliban called the Agence France-Presse from an undisclosed location to claim responsibility for the attacks. Ehsanullah Ehsan told the AFP that the Taliban had dispatched more than 20 suicide bombers to target Shiite Muslims, the religious minority. 

Four boys were among the dead; another 30 were wounded.

Pakistan suspended phone coverage in cities across the country this weekend, an important one in the Shiite Muslim calendar, after a series of bomb attacks on Shiites were triggered by mobile phones.

Hardline Sunnis have threatened more attacks as the Shiite mourning month of Muharram comes to a climax. More than a dozen people have already been killed this week observing Muharram.

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Muharram marks the anniversary of the Battle of Karbala, where the grandson of the Prophet Mohammad and his family members were killed.

Pakistani intelligence officials say extremist groups led by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi have intensified their bombings and shootings of Shiites in the hope of triggering conflict that would pave the way for a Sunni theocracy in U.S.-allied Pakistan.

The schism between Sunnis and Shiites developed after the Prophet Muhammad died in 632 when his followers could not agree on a successor.

Saturday's attack occurred in the city of Dera Ismail Khan in Pakistan's northwest, a stronghold of al-Qaida-linked Sunni militant groups who regard Shiites as non-Muslims and have stepped up sectarian attacks in a bid to destabilize Pakistan.

The explosion followed a suicide attack that killed 23 people at a Shiite procession, according to the AFP. 

Boy hurled from street to roof
Police said the bomb was set off by a television remote control device because cellphones were not operational.

The explosion was so powerful that it hurled a young boy onto a rooftop from a street, where a man later carried away half of his body, as a policeman with a bomb detector and residents stood near blood stains.

Intelligence information indicates more attacks have been planned for the coming days in the capital city of Islamabad, Karachi and Quetta. Mobile phone service will be suspended for hours in the three cities and dozens of others over the weekend.

In Karachi, more than 5,000 police are expected to patrol the streets during Muharram events over the next two days, with hundreds more on alert.

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Updated at 6:45 p.m. ET: Explosions hit the Hai al-Wuroud district in northwest Damascus on Tuesday, killing at least 15, Syrian state media and regime foes reported. Also Tuesday, gunmen shot dead the brother of the parliament speaker in the latest rebel attack on a figure associated with the ruling elite.

The opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a group monitoring the violence, said at least 40 were wounded in the attack that used three bombs.

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Hai al-Wuroud, a hilltop neighborhood inhabited mostly by members of President Bashar Assad's minority Alawite sect, is situated near barracks and housing for elite army units.

Damascus has several hilltop enclaves mostly inhabited by the Alawite, a sect of Shiite Islam that has dominated Syria, which has a Sunni Muslim majority, since the 1960s.

Later Tuesday, a car bomb exploded near a shopping center in northeast Damascus, killing and injuring several people, opposition activists in the capital said. This latest spate of violence came a day after more than 250 people were killed, according to an activist monitoring group.

The bomb went off near Qasioun Mall in the religiously and ethnically mixed area of Ibn al-Nafis, they said.

The opposition said at least 100 more people were killed elsewhere in the civil war.

"Lots of people were hit inside their apartments. Rescue efforts are hampered because electricity was cut off right after the explosion," said Abu Hamza al-Shami.

State television said gunmen had assassinated Mohammed Osama al-Laham, brother of the speaker of parliament, in Damascus's Midan district. No group claimed immediate responsibility.

 

The United Nations and Arab League envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, said in an interview with the newspaper al-Hayat that Syria could "turn into a new Somalia" unless the 19-month-old crisis ends soon, the BBC reported. Brahimi said he fears warlords and militias could come in to fill a void left by a collapsed state, according to the BBC.

Safe exit for Syria's Assad 'could be arranged,' says British prime minister

The Syrian uprising has left more than 32,000 dead since it began with peaceful protests in March 2011.

British Prime Minister David Cameron said Tuesday before a visit to Saudi Arabia that a safe exit and possible immunity from prosecution for Assad "could be arranged" if it would end the conflict.

"Done. Anything, anything, to get that man out of the country and to have a safe transition in Syria," Cameron told the Saudi-based Al Arabiya news network in Abu Dhabi when asked about offering Assad safe passage.

Suicide bomb ups death toll in Syria to 269 since Sunday, groups say

"Of course I would favor him facing the full force of international law and justice for what he's done. I am certainly not offering him an exit plan to Britain, but if he wants to leave he could leave, that could be arranged," he said.

It was unclear if Cameron had spoken to other U.N. Security Council members about the idea, which could involve offering Assad immunity from prosecution if he accepted asylum in a third country. Nor was it clear what nation would take him.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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GILGIT, Pakistan -- About 20 men dressed as Pakistani soldiers boarded a bus bound for a Muslim festival outside this mountain town and checked the identification cards of the passengers. They singled out 19 Shiites, drew weapons and slaughtered them, most with a bullet to the head.

The shooters weren't soldiers. They were a hit squad linked to the Sunni Muslim extremist group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, or LeJ. They had trekked in along a high Himalayan pass that hot August morning to waylay a convoy of pilgrims.

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Here and across Pakistan, violent Sunni radicals are on the march against the nation's Shiite minority.

With a few hundred hard-core cadres, the highly secretive LeJ aims to trigger sectarian violence that would pave the way for a Sunni theocracy in U.S.-allied Pakistan, say Pakistan police and intelligence officials. Its immediate goal, they say, is to stoke the intense Sunni-Shiite violence that has pushed countries like Iraq close to civil war.

More than 300 Shiites have been killed in Pakistan so far this year in sectarian conflict, according to human rights groups. The campaign is gathering pace in rural as well as urban areas such as Karachi, Pakistan's biggest city. The Shiites are a big target, accounting for up to 20 percent of this nation of 180 million.

In January, LeJ claimed responsibility for a homemade bomb that exploded in a crowd of Shiites in Punjab province, killing 18 and wounding 30. LeJ's reach extends beyond Pakistan: Late last year, LeJ claimed responsibility for bombings in Afghanistan that killed 59 people, the worst sectarian attacks since the fall of the Taliban government in 2001.

"No doubt - (LeJ) are the most dangerous group," said Chaudhry Aslam, a top counterterrorism police commando based in Karachi, whose house was blown up by the LeJ. "We will fight them until the last drop of blood."

For an outlawed group accused of fomenting such mayhem, the leader of LeJ is surprisingly easy to find.

Malik Ishaq spent 14 years in jail in connection with dozens of murder and terrorism cases. He was released after the charges could not be proved - partly because of witness intimidation, officials say - and showered with rose petals by hundreds of supporters when he left prison in July 2011.

Although Ishaq is one of Pakistan's most feared militants, he enjoys the protection of followers clutching AK-47 assault rifles in the narrow lane outside his home. There, in the town of Rahim Yar Khan in southern Punjab province, Reuters visited him for an interview.

"The state should declare Shiites as non-Muslims on the basis of their beliefs," said Ishaq, calling them the "greatest infidels on Earth." Young supporters with shoulder-length hair in imitation of the Prophet Mohammad hung on every word.

Following the trail
To assess the LeJ threat, Reuters followed the group's trail across Pakistan -- from Ishaq's compound, to Gilgit in the foothills of the Himalayas, recruiting grounds in central Punjab and the backstreets of Karachi on the Arabian Sea coast.

In interviews, police, intelligence officials, clerics and LeJ members described a group that has grown more robust and appears to be operating across a much wider area in Pakistan than just a few years ago. But it had a head start.

The LeJ once enjoyed the open support of the powerful spy agency, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence. The ISI used such groups as military proxies in India and Afghanistan and to counter Shiite militant groups.

Since being outlawed after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, LeJ has worked with Sunni radical groups al-Qaida and the Pakistani Taliban in several high-profile strikes. Among them were assaults in 2009 on Pakistan's military headquarters and on Sri Lanka's visiting cricket team. Washington says LeJ was involved in the killing of Wall Street Journal correspondent Daniel Pearl in 2002.

Now it is gathering strength anew. The risks are heightened by Pakistan's long-standing role as a battlefield in a proxy war between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, which have been competing for influence in Asia and the Middle East since the 1979 Iranian revolution.

That competition has heated up since the United States toppled secularist dictator Saddam Hussein in Iraq and left the country under the control of an Iranian-influenced Shiite government. Intelligence officials say the LeJ is drawing financial support from Saudi donors and other Sunni sources.

"Unfortunately, the state for strategic reasons turned a blind eye to the LeJ for a long time," said a retired army general. "Now we have a situation where it has become Pakistan's Frankenstein."

Interior Minister Rehman Malik, who is in charge of internal security, told Reuters that "we always take action" against the LeJ when the group is suspected of murder or terrorism. "We track people and arrest them."

When asked why those arrested are often freed, he said: "Look, my job is to arrest people, not to let them go. We all know who lets them off the hook and why," he said, referring to local politicians and elements of the military who turn a blind eye to their activities or even support them in some cases.

Sacred calling
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, whose name means Soldiers of Jhangvi (after its founder, Haq Maulana Nawab Jhangvi), isn't the only lethal militant group that once enjoyed patronage from the spy agency.

One is Lashkar-e-Taiba (Soldiers of the Pure), which fights against Indian control in disputed Kashmir. It is blamed for several deadly attacks on Indian soil, including the November 2008 attacks in Mumbai, and an audacious raid on India's parliament in December 2001 with another Kashmiri militant group, Jaishi-e-Mohammad (Army of Mohammad). That raid brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war.

Another is the Pakistani Taliban. Its attack this month on 14-year-old Malala Yousafzai in Swat was only the most recent in a long list of strikes on civilian and military targets, mainly in the unruly tribal area along the Afghan border.

What makes LeJ particularly dangerous, however, is that the group is based in Pakistan's Punjab heartland. And it is not just attacking targets in Pakistan's neighbors, but has also targeted the state, including the 2009 attack on Pakistan's military headquarters.

LeJ was established as an offshoot of another anti-Shiite organization called Sipah-e-Sahaba (Soldiers of Mohammad's Companions).

LeJ believes it has a sacred calling -- to protect the legacy of the companions of the Prophet Mohammad - and it sees Shi'ites as the main threat.

Mahmood Baber, educated in a madrassa, was drawn by LeJ's call to holy war against Shiite infidels. His 16-year career in the movement ended in October, when he and other LeJ members were arrested.

Handcuffed and with a cloth thrown over his head at a Karachi police station, Baber described for Reuters the "great satisfaction" he felt killing 14 Shiite "terrorists" over the years. His voice choked with emotion when he said that for 1,400 years Shiites had insulted the companions of the Prophet.

"Get rid of Shiites. That is our goal. May God help us," he said, before intelligence agents led him away for a fresh round of interrogation.

The schism between Sunnis and Shiites developed after the Prophet Muhammad died in 632 when his followers could not agree on a successor. Sunnis recognize the first four caliphs as his rightful successors; the Shiites believe the prophet named his son-in-law, Ali. Emotions over the issue have boiled through modern times and even pushed some countries, including Iraq five years ago, to the brink of civil war.

Demonizing Iran
The LeJ's leader, Ishaq, lives in a house whose gate bears a sign inviting residents of the town to debate whether Shiites are infidels.

These days Ishaq calls himself a leader of Sipah-e-Sahaba, the LeJ parent group. Pakistani officials say he still runs, or at least inspires, LeJ. Ishaq denies any wrongdoing, repeatedly saying: "I've been acquitted." He has indeed been acquitted 34 times on charges of culpable homicide and terrorism.

He does not hide his feelings about Shiites, his voice growing strident as he opened a plastic folder filled with printouts from what he describes as Shi'ite Internet sites.

One contained a photo of a pig, an animal considered by Muslims to be dirty, and is accompanied by an insult to Sunnis. Another alleges the Prophet Mohammad's wife committed adultery -- all proof, he says, that Shiites are blasphemous, and deserve punishment.

"Whoever insults the companions of the Holy Prophet should be given a death sentence," Ishaq declares.

Ishaq and other hardline Sunnis believe that Iran is trying to foment revolution in Pakistan to turn it into a Shi'ite state, though no evidence for that is offered.

The Saudi connection
In the Punjab town of Jhang, LeJ's birthplace, SSP leader Maulana Mohammad Ahmed Ludhianvi describes what he says are Tehran's grand designs. Iranian consular offices and cultural centers, he alleges, are actually a front for its intelligence agencies.

"If Iranian interference continues it will destroy this country," said Ludhianvi in an interview in his home. The state provides him with armed guards, fearful any harm done to him could trigger sectarian bloodletting.

The Iranian embassy in Islamabad, asked for a response to that allegation, issued a statement denouncing sectarian violence.

"What is happening today in the name of sectarianism has nothing to do with Muslims and their ideologies," it said.

Ludhianvi insisted he was just a politician. "I would like to tell you that I am not a murderer, I am not a killer, I am not a terrorist. We are a political party."

After a meal of chicken, curry and spinach, Ludhianvi and his aides stood up to warmly welcome a visitor: Saudi Arabia-based cleric Malik Abdul Haq al-Meqqi.

A Pakistani cleric knowledgeable about Sunni groups described Meqqi as a middleman between Saudi donors and intelligence agencies and the LeJ, the SSP and other groups.

"Of course, Saudi Arabia supports these groups. They want to keep Iranian influence in check in Pakistan, so they pay," the Pakistani cleric said. His account squared with that of a Pakistani intelligence agent, who said jailed militants had confessed that LeJ received Saudi funding.

Saudi cleric Meqqi denied that, and SSP leader Ludhianvi concurred: "We have not taken a penny from the Saudi government," he told Reuters.

Saudi Arabia's alleged financing of Sunni militant groups has been a sore point in Washington. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned in a December 2009 classified diplomatic cable that charities and donors in Saudi Arabia were the "most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide." In the cable, released by Wikileaks, Clinton said it was "an ongoing challenge" to persuade Saudi officials to treat such activity as a strategic priority. She said the groups funded included al-Qaida, the Taliban and Lashkar-e-Taiba.

The Saudi embassy in Islamabad and officials in Saudi Arabia were unavailable for comment.

Shiite revenge
Some Shia groups do look to Iran's clerical establishment for spiritual leadership, but insist they have no aims beyond protecting members from Sunni attacks.

In the offices of a Shiite organization in Karachi, images of the late Iranian leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini are featured on a wall clock. There, a Pakistani Shiite woman named Shafqat Batool described what happened to her son, a judge, when he left for work on August 30.

Minutes after Sayid Zulfiqar stepped out of the family home in Quetta, she said, witnesses told the family three men on a motorcycle opened fire with Kalashnikov rifles. One of the assailants then grabbed a weapon from Zulfiqar's bleeding driver and pumped more bullets into her son.

It prompted Zulfiqar's family to move to Karachi. "We are not safe anywhere in the country," his mother said. "People are horrified, people can't sleep."

The fear is palpable in Quetta, the mountainous provincial capital of southwestern Baluchistan. LeJ has unleashed an escalating campaign there of suicide bombings and assassinations against ethnic Hazaras - Persian-speaking Shiites who mostly emigrated from Afghanistan and are a small minority of the Shiite population in Pakistan.

At least 100 Hazaras have been killed this year, according to Human Rights Watch, leaving some 500,000 Hazaras fearful of venturing out of their enclaves.

"We are under siege; we can't move anywhere," said Khaliq Hazara, chairman of the Hazara Democratic Party. "Hazaras are being killed and there is nobody to take any action.

In Quetta and Karachi, Shiite leaders say they are urging young men to exercise restraint and buy weapons only for self-defense.

"We are controlling our youth and stopping them from reacting," said Syed Sadiq Raza Taqvi, a Karachi cleric, seated beside a calendar with images of Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

But with each killing, the temptation to take revenge grows.

Shiite extremists have not adopted the kind of attacks favored by LeJ. But they have hunted down members of the SSP.

One such case was an attack survived by Sohaib Nadeem, 27, son of an SSP member. Men he described as "Shiite terrorists backed by Iran" opened fire on the Nadeem family in their car. Nadeem survived nine gunshot wounds but his father and brothers were killed. "The Shiites are our enemies," Nadeem said.

Confederation of militants
When the Taliban and al-Qaida want to reach targets outside their strongholds on the Afghan border, they turn to LeJ to provide intelligence, safe houses or young volunteers eager for martyrdom, police and intelligence officials said.

"Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is the detonator of terrorism in Pakistan," said Karachi Police Superintendent Raja Umer Khattab, who has interrogated more than 100 members. "The Taliban needs Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. Al Qaeda needs Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. They are involved in most terrorism cases."

The massacre of Shiite bus passengers outside Gilgit has had a profound impact on this mountaineering hub in the Himalayan foothills. Never before had Sunni extremists asked for identification to single out Shiites and then kill them on such a large scale.

Sunnis and Shiites, who had lived in harmony for decades, now cope with sectarian no-go zones.

"Sunnis can't go to some areas and Shiites can't go to others," lamented Gilgit shopkeeper Muneer Hussain Shah, a Shiite whose brother was killed in a grenade attack.

When violence erupts, text messages circulate rallying one sect or the other. Shops and schools close. Authorities have banned motorcycles to stop drive-by shootings.

Law enforcement itself is a victim of sectarianism in Gilgit, said police chief Usman Zakria. Shi'ite officers are reluctant to investigate crimes committed by Shi'ites, and the same is true of Sunnis.

"They are in disarray," said Zakria. "None of this has happened before."

Additional reporting by Imtiaz Shah in Karachi, Mehreen Zahra-Malik in Islamabad and Matthew Green in Quetta. 

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First, he reprimanded me for not calling enough and hardly visiting. I’ve been away too long. You can’t do that, not to your friends. What’s so difficult about calling? he asked.

I apologized, asked about his children, his health, if he’s having success in quitting smoking, and offered the only excuse I could think of: "I’ve been busy with the Arab Spring."

"The Arab Spring?" he said. "What’s that? There’s no Arab Spring anymore. That’s over. It is now a big struggle for power." 

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He may have been acting like an insistent grandmother, but he was right. The Arab Spring is over. The days of the protesters with laptops and BlackBerrys in Tahrir Square are long gone.

Instead, a much bigger struggle is underway, one that goes back centuries that is both a regional battle for dominance and an epic tug of war between Sunnis and Shiites for control of the Middle East and the Prophet Muhammad's legacy.

The front line is now in Syria, where the United Nations says more than 20,000 people have been killed since pro-democracy protests started in March 2011.

But it goes back, at least in very modern history, at least to Iraq — and America shares a large part of the responsibility for reopening this Pandora’s Box.

Roots in Iraq
A major factor in the rise of the present struggle came when American troops invaded Iraq in 2003, thus pitting Sunnis against their rival Shiites, who many Sunnis think are effectively infidels who turned against Islamic leaders about 1,400 years ago and have been on the wrong side of Allah’s path since then.

For decades, Saddam and his Sunni minority had imposed their will on Iraq, carrying on a 14-century tradition of Sunnis controlling Mesopotamia despite a Shiite majority. Not surprisingly, in most Sunni regions there has little appetite for free U.S.-sponsored elections. They knew they would end up being ruled by their enemies.

And that’s what happened. Essentially, the lasting legacy of America’s involvement in Iraq is an Iranian-allied Shiite government that also happens to be one of the most corrupt on the planet. (Iran is the biggest and most powerful Shiite-majority nation.) 

The Shiites were, of course, delighted. I remember the moment U.S. troops left their last base in southern Iraq in December 2011.  The Iraqis changed its name as the Americans rolled out the gate. It had been called Camp Adder; the Iraqis renamed it 'the Imam Ali base,' after the patriarch of Shiite Islam.

The Shiites — in both Iraq and Iran — won, and won big.  

President George W. Bush, in his now-rare public appearances and interviews, still refuses to acknowledge he did anything to help Iran. But it doesn’t really matter what he thinks. The 200 million people in the Middle East understand that there is a new reality — and that’s what they are battling about now. 

Iraqi Sunnis are still seething — and sometimes fighting — in their stronghold cities of Ramadi and Fallujah.  They can’t accept what they consider the tragedy that has befallen their community and don’t understand even now why Washington sent troops across the Atlantic and Indian oceans to help Iran expand a buffer zone beyond its borders.

Enter al-Qaida, a radical Sunni group
Back in the Iraq war days, al-Qaida, a radical Sunni group, saw an opportunity to expand. Al-Qaida militants flowed to Iraq to help fellow Sunnis fight Iran, Shiites and the Americans who were propping them up. But al-Qaida got more than it bargained for. The U.S. troops were tougher than al-Qaida expected. American forces learned guerilla tactics in Iraq. They built bigger, stronger vehicles to defeat car bombs and IEDs. U.S. troops, much to al-Qaida surprise and dismay, moved at night, dropped men from helicopters like spiders and blasted militant safe houses into kindling.

Al-Qaida made another mistake too. It misbehaved in Iraq and abused its hosts, fellow Sunni tribesmen. Al-Qaida forgot it was a guest and abandoned its manners. Al-Qaida killed Sunni tribesmen because they weren’t fundamentalist enough. The wild-eyed militants flogged Sunnis in Ramadi and Fallujah for minor infractions like taking off their pants to swim in the Euphrates. It was hardly the behavior of someone who’s claiming to help.

The Americans eventually used al-Qaida’s misbehavior against the group, forming a militia of Sunnis who were fed up with the fanatics, often referred to as the "Sons of Iraq." Al-Qaida lost in Iraq and the Shiite government won. Iran won, too. 

After the Shiites came to power in Baghdad, Iran suddenly had access to Iraq’s holy Shiite cities of Najaf and Karbala. Iran increased tourism and business ties with its new Shiite-controlled neighbor. The majority of passengers now arriving and departing from Baghdad International Airport are from Iran.

Photo Blog: Portraits from the front line: Syrian rebels pose in Aleppo

Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah
Of course, it isn’t tourism that is on the minds of concerned observers of the Middle East. Rather, it is another Shiite government — just to the northwest of Iraq —the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

In fact, the Assad family isn’t actually Shiite, but Alawite, a secretive Shiite-linked offshoot that makes up just about 13 percent of the population. There’s also a sizable Christian community. Iran has effectively adopted the Alawites into the family by forging a long-standing alliance with Assad and — before him — his father, Hafez, who ruled Syria from 1971-1990.   

And, moving further west from Syria, there’s Lebanon. Lebanon is a mixed basket if there ever was one. It’s Sunni in the north, Christian in the middle and Shiite in the south, with each making up about a third of the population. As any Lebanese person will tell you, it’s a volatile mix that has produced a lively culture, fantastic food, attractive people — and recurring cycles of civil war. 

Topping the heap in Lebanon are the Shiites, emboldened by their powerful and skilled militia, Hezbollah. Hezbollah is heavily armed and has thousands of rockets pointed at Israel. The weapons mostly come from Iran through Syria or from Syria itself. In addition, Hezbollah runs a powerful social network. It can collapse the Lebanese government when it chooses.  

France sends aid, cash to rebel-held Syrian cities, source says

So, there we have it. The previously isolated Shiite regime in Iran is emboldened by the emergence of a Shiite-dominated government in Iraq. In reaction, the Sunni world becomes concerned about the upstart Shiite powers, complete with their considerable oil resources and weaponry.

The region, already a tinderbox, becomes primed for a power struggle.

At the same time, there is the matter of religious pride and a sense of being in the right. In the Muslim world, the Sunnis are the big players. There are more than 1 billion Sunnis worldwide — making up 87-90 percent of the world’s total Muslim population, according to the Pew Research Center. By comparison, Shiites are a relatively small group, there are just about 150-200 million Shiites in the world, with about 75 percent living in just four countries: Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and India, according to Pew. 

For the world’s Sunni Muslims, there is a certain confidence, perhaps even arrogance, that comes with having a billion friends. 

Arab Spring shake-up
At first, the current unrest was unrelated to the Sunni-Shiite divide. The first eruption came in Tunisia, which exploded in protests in December 2010. Then came Egypt, Bahrain, Libya and Yemen.

The region’s dictators were caught off guard by student demonstrators who had mobile communications that government security forces couldn’t track or monitor. The students could organize flash mobs. They could communicate directly with hundreds of millions of supporters though social media. 

The Arab regimes in 2011 in many ways were legacies of Israel’s victories in 1948 and 1967. Faced with the catastrophic defeats, military strongmen grew in power. Over time they become corrupt. By 2011, most Arab governments were brutal, uncreative and thoroughly uninspiring.

In Tunisia, lawyers, students and women’s groups protested in because of the country’s secret prisons and because the former president’s wife was taking a cut of nearly everyone’s business.  

The Egyptian regime was similarly ossified and out of touch. Hosni Mubarak had been an effective president in his early years and relatively popular. But by the time protests began in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, he was 82 years old, his military cohorts and family had become increasingly corrupt, he had been president for nearly three decades, and he was insistent that his bland son take over from him.

The Arab Spring put the Middle East back in flux — and, encapsulated by the current situation in Syria — put religious divides back in the spotlight.

The rise of religious tensions started in Egypt, where the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood — a Sunni organization — mobilized and easily hijacked the 2011 revolution started by liberals, anarchists, socialists, students, artists and techno-nerds who were joined by millions of the unemployed and disenfranchised. Sunni Islamists, albeit moderate, took over in Tunisia, too.

But it is Syria that has become the epicenter of the historic battle between Sunnis and Shiites. And Lebanon will probably follow.

I spoke with a rebel in Syria about a month ago who explained the religious calculation.

"We lost Iraq to the Shiites and Iran. We’re going to take Syria for us," he said. 

Nearly all of the rebels in Syria are Sunnis and the fighting in Syria remains almost exclusively in Sunni areas. Alawite areas remain generally supportive of the Assad regime and therefore haven’t been attacked by the central government. The worst massacres have taken place in Sunni villages that are surrounded by Alawite towns.

The rebels claim the Alawites want to drive out Sunnis from their areas to make pure Alawite blocks for self-defense in case they lose the war and are hunted. Although the rebels say they want to create a Sunni-led government, which they promise will be open and democratic, this isn’t Tahrir Square anymore.  It’s not even close.

Iran-Syria alliance
The Syrian government has long found Iran and Hezbollah to be useful allies. Iran is technologically advanced and offers a big market for Syrian goods. Hezbollah is a sword Damascus can wave over Israel's head, and a way to maintain influence in Lebanon, which Syria claims (with some reason) was historically part of Syria before the horribly planned British and French division of the Middle East during and after World War I.

U.S. officials: Iran supplying Syrian military via Iraqi airspace

But war changes the dynamics between allies.  As Assad’s grip on power weakens, Iran and Hezbollah’s position in Syria grows stronger. The tail is starting to wag the dog. Iranian and Hezbollah advisers are becoming increasingly dominant in Syria.

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta spoke out publicly about Iran’s increasing presence in Syria last month.  

"There’s now an indication that they’re trying to develop or trying to train a militia within Syria to be able to fight on behalf of the regime," Panetta said at a Pentagon news briefing. "So we are seeing a growing presence by Iran and that is of deep concern to us."

In Syria, I saw evidence of Hezbollah’s influence at an army outpost that the rebels had just taken over. Rebels claimed there were 20 Hezbollah fighters in the outpost. They said that they occupied their own room and fought to the death. I saw boxes of unpacked Hezbollah flags.

It’s no longer a situation where Hezbollah is just providing arms and intelligence, but appears to have mobilized and is fighting alongside Syrian forces.

And al-Qaida is also trying to make up for lost time. Its leader is dead and Afghanistan and Pakistan aren’t as safe as they used to be. Even Yemen is unsafe with increasing American drone strikes. Al-Qaida trying to do in Syria what it failed to accomplish in Iraq.  Al-Qaida has learned from its Iraq’s experience. Sensing an opening, al-Qaida fighters are going into Syria offering money and arms to the rebels, their Sunni brothers.

They are going in politely, or at least as politely as al-Qaida can be. They are offering rebels cash with no strings attached, at first.  Initial payments tend to be small, around $5,000. It is tiny sum in a war zone, but enough to give strapped rebel units a taste of what’s to come. They also have RPGs, the weapon rebel commanders seem to value above all others. 

After taking a few payments, according to rebels who’ve seen this process, al-Qaida fighters — from Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Chechnya and other countries — ask that the rebels receive some of their men. An increasingly number of rebels commanders are taking the deal, even though they worry what al-Qaida could ask for in the future. 

They reason that it’s better to take the support than die with nothing. Without American troops to worry about — not even drones —Syria could prove to be a far better base for al-Qaida than Iraq ever was.

What’s next?
What happens if Washington continues to watch from afar?

Well, Syria is likely to become an even bigger battleground for a proxy war between Hezbollah, Sunni rebels, government troops, Iran and al-Qaida. And once Syria collapses — or even before — Lebanon could ignite as well. 

My Iraqi friend was right. The Arab Spring no longer exists.  

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RIYADH -- A Saudi soldier was shot dead patrolling an area populated by minority Shiite Muslims late on Friday, the Interior Ministry said, and one of the gunmen was killed in the ensuing shoot-out.

The deaths bring to 11 the number of people killed in the Qatif area since November in protests by members of Saudi Arabia's Shiite minority over what they see as entrenched discrimination.

---

"A security patrol was exposed to heavy fire from four armed rioters on motorbikes when pausing at a street intersection in Qatif," state news agency SPA reported, quoting Interior Ministry spokesman Mansour Turki. 

Turki said the gunmen had been arrested after an exchange of fire in which one of them was killed, and said another man suffering a bullet injury had been arrested at the hospital. 

He added that the incident, which happened at 11 pm on Friday evening, had led to the death of one soldier, named as Hussein Bawah Ali Zabani, and the wounding of another, named as Saad Miteb Mohammed al-Shammari, whom he said was taken to hospital. 

Heretical?
Saudi Shiites mostly live in the Eastern Province, also home to the kingdom's oil industry, and complain they lack access to government jobs, education and full rights of worship, charges the government denies. 

The world's top oil exporter follows the conservative Wahhabi school of Islam, which regards Shiism as heretical. 

Protests broke out in Qatif last year when Saudi troops were invited by the government of neighboring Bahrain to help its Sunni royal family quash a popular uprising by the Shi'ite majority. 

Last month a new round of protests ended with three deaths after police arrested and injured a firebrand Shiite cleric, Nimr al-Nimr, who had preached sermons urging demonstrations against the government. 

Ten of the 11 people to have died in Qatif demonstrations since late last year were young Shiite men, killed in what Saudi Arabia said were exchanges of fire, but which local activists described as peaceful protests. 

Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have both accused Shi'ite regional power Iran of fomenting the unrest among members of the sect in both countries, which Tehran denies. 

The Interior Ministry in January issued a list of 23 residents of the area who it said were responsible for attacks on security forces, acting at the behest of "a foreign power", widely understood to mean Iran. 

Shi'ites in Qatif, who often raise the Bahraini flag in shows of solidarity with their co-religionists in the tiny Gulf Arab country, have repeatedly said the protests are not organized by Iran. 

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News Analysis

NORTHERN SYRIA – The rebels call this Free Syria. 

I am writing from a village that was occupied by Syrian soldiers four hours ago – the tracks of retreating tanks are freshly pressed into the pavement.

Grape vines hang in the small garden of the two-room stone house I’m in.  There’s no electricity, but there is fresh water from rural wells.  Bullet holes – some as small as grapes, others big as oranges – pierce the house’s walls. 

Still, the people in this village are celebrating.

“Free Syrian army! God protect them!” they shout, index and middle fingers splayed into a “v” for victory. 

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The 200 Syrian troops who’d been shelling this village of 8,000 olive and walnut farmers withdrew under fire Wednesday night.  Women and children who had been hiding in other villages within walking distance stream in, loaded with vegetables and yogurt. 

The returning families sift through the debris of their homes.  The villagers find that many houses were burned by Syrian troops.  The Syrian army appears to have carried out a deliberate scorched-earth campaign here. 

The troops burned every home with a son, son-in-law or even cousin among the rebels, residents tell us.  There can be little doubt that this is government policy (and what appears to be a war crime) because the same thing has happening in every village we’ve visited. 

A man who returned to this village had a leg cut off under torture by Syrian forces.  He’s 74 years old.

Another man who escaped Damascus five days ago says the fighting in the capital is now so bad that President Bashar Assad isn’t sending ground forces into rebel neighborhoods anymore and is only shelling them from afar.  He doesn’t want to send foot patrols out of fear the troops will defect, people say.

The regime is on the ropes.  

Total war: Syria sends armored column to Aleppo

The Assad goverment is concentrating its firepower on big cities like Damascus and Aleppo.  Government troops left this village last night to join the attack on Aleppo.  But the rebels, and Syria, need urgent help to prevent huge losses of life, both among fighters and civilians – Sunni, Allawite and Christian.

Many myths circulate in Washington and in the media about the Syrian opposition and the fighting in this country.   From what I’ve seen traveling with the rebels, many of the commonly accepted ‘truths’ seem to be incorrect.  After all, the first casualty of war is the truth.

Myth: The rebels are getting weapons and money from abroad and will soon finish off Bashar’s army on their own. 

View from the ground: The rebels are fighting with almost nothing.  I was with a rebel commander yesterday who has 48 men.  Only 15 of his fighters have any weapons.  He has almost no ammunition.  He has one anti-aircraft gun, but not a single bullet for it. 

The rebels don’t have enough gasoline to put in their vehicles.  The gas they can find costs the equivalent of $8 a gallon.  Food is plentiful, and so is water.  But weapons and ammunition are in desperately short supply.  Another unit I have seen is armed with homemade bombs that they try to fire from cardboard tubes.  

The rebels are now starting to get Motorola radios.  They are new and coming from Turkey.  Washington has recently said it will help private non-lethal aid, including communications equipment.  But the radios are of little use.  Communications have never been the rebels’ main problem.  In fact, the rebels coordinate and communicate effectively already.  They use  both the new Motorola radios and local Syrian cellphones.  The cellphones can be monitored by Syrian intelligence, but the rebels’ strategy has been to overwhelm the Syrian government’s ability to listen. 

Because the rebels – commanders and foot soldiers – all use cellphones and landlines, there are tens or thousands of conversations going on at any one time.  The rebels speak vaguely and in primitive codes.  It seems unlikely that Syrian forces are able to keep track of such a high volume of calls and effectively act on them.  The rebels do appreciate the radios and use them, but they are a secondary priority. 

Syria: What you need to know about the crisis from the CFR.org

What the rebels say they truly need are arms that can pierce Syrian armored vehicles.  They need 12.7 anti-aircraft ammunition.  They say they need 14.5 ‘doshka’ rounds.   They need armor penetrating RPGS.  They need 60mm and 120mm mortars.  They need 7.62 rounds.  These are what commanders ask for whenever I meet them.  These are what every rebel wants.

Myth: The rebels are disorganized, have no leaders and are rife with infighting.

View from the ground: The rebels have no central leadership.  They do not have a single commander.  The rebels generally do not recognize the leaders of the Syrian opposition in exile in Turkey and Europe.  But on the ground here in Syria the rebels are well organized.   Their structure is more organic than hierarchical, less like a pyramid than a bungle of grapes, with individual cells joined together by a common cause.  The rebel cells coordinate well with each other.  Since weapons are in such short supply, all rebel military operations are collective efforts.  In the town where I am, there are no fewer than five different rebel commands.  They respect each other.  They trade weapons and fighters.  Some units are more Islamic in their politics, others are secular.  The differences in politics do not prevent their coordination.

Photo Blog: Who are the Syrian rebels?

Myth: The rebels are al-Qaida or at least infiltrated by al-Qaida.

View from the ground:  We have not seen evidence of a large al-Qaida presence.  This is not an al-Qaida fight.  In the last 24 hours we have met three rebel commanders.  One was an air-conditioner repairman before the war.  Another was a tomato and zucchini farmer.  The third grew grain and lentils.  One of the commanders considers himself an Islamist.  The other two are more secular. 

In total, the three commanders control about 1,500 men.  Not one of the commanders supports al-Qaida, nor have any of the dozens rebels have we have met.  There were reports that al-Qaida fighters had recently taken over the Baab al-Howa border crossing between Syria and Turkey.  There was a video that showed rebels carrying a suspicious-looking all black flag, similar to ones favored by al-Qaida.  We spoke with the rebel leader who carried the flag.  He said he has nothing to do with al-Qaida and the flag was an Islamic one.

Syrian forces launch air attacks on largest city

Al-Qaida’s presence may grow, however, without a quick end to this conflict.  The rebels need help.  Their men are dying.  Their homes are being burned.  As time goes on, the temptation to welcome help – even if offered from al-Qaida –will grow.  We have heard reports of foreign fighters coming to Syrian from Algeria and Saudi Arabia.  We have heard reports that al-Qaida is offering some rebel commanders money.  The longer this drags on, the more dangerous it will get.

Myth: The rebels want a NATO intervention

View from the ground: The rebels do not want American or European soldiers in Syria.  Many rebels do not specifically even want a no-fly-zone, although I suspect many would welcome it.  Mostly, they just want access to weapons. 

Myth: After Assad is toppled there will be ethnic cleansing of Allawite (a secretive Shiite sect) civilians by the Sunni majority. 

View from the ground: Syrians don’t want ethnic violence, but some may happen.  It’s already happening.  There have already been ethnically motivated massacres.  The longer the war continues the worse this will become.  Syria is not, however, Iraq. 

There are no U.S. troops in Syria trying to organize elections.  The U.S. presence and American missteps made ethnic violence in Iraq far worse than it would have been otherwise after Saddam Saddam Hussein's fall.  The Syrians are better suited to sort out their internal divisions than anyone else. 

A first? Helicopter gunships bombard Syrian capital

Allawites comprise about 10 percent of Syria’s 23 million people.  They are the government’s favored sect.  The Assad family is Allawite.  If Assad falls, there may be vendetta killings of some Allawites.  More than 17,000 Syrians have already been killed, which means 17,000 angry families.  It will be difficult to contain all that rage.  The longer the conflict continues, however, the more vengeance there will be.  If there are more large-scale massacres – if Aleppo is reduced to a smoldering pile like Homs – the aftermath could be much worse. 

But Syrians I have spoken to say they do not want a civil war.  They do not want to drive Allawites from the country.  Mostly, they want justice.  The rebels know exactly who they are looking for.  They have the names of Syrian government officers and militiamen responsible for massacres and torture.  They want to bring them to justice, but not to perpetrate more atrocities.  Syria needs help organizing a justice system to deal with the popular demands for retribution after the regime collapses. 

The conflict in Syria seems to be in its final stages, but how long this stage will last depends largely on what happens in the coming days and weeks and the amount of support the rebels receive. 

All indications are that Assad is going to fall.  But how many more Syrians need to go with him?

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Updated at 9:40 a.m. ET: BAGHDAD, Iraq -- A wave of bombings and an attack on an Iraqi military base killed more than 100 people on Monday. The death toll made it the bloodiest day of the year in the country, The Associated Press reported. 

In addition to those killed, at least 268 other people were wounded by bombings and shootings in Shiite areas of Baghdad, the town of Taji to the north, the northern cities of Kirkuk and Mosul and many other places, hospital and police sources told Reuters.

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The bloodshed, which coincided with an intensifying of the conflict in neighboring Syria, pointed up the deficiencies of the Iraqi security forces, which failed to prevent insurgents from striking in multiple locations across the country.

No group has claimed responsibility for the wave of assaults but a senior Iraqi security official blamed the local wing of al-Qaida, made up of Sunni Muslim militants bitterly hostile to the Shiite-led government, which is friendly with Iran.

"Recent attacks are a clear message that al-Qaida in Iraq is determined to spark a bloody sectarian war," the official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters.

"With what's going on in Syria, these attacks should be taken seriously as a potential threat to our country. Al-Qaida is trying to push Iraq to the verge of Shiite-Sunni war," he said. "They want things to be as bad as in Syria."

'Innocent people killed'
The last two days of attacks shattered a two-week lull in violence in the run-up to the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan, which started in Iraq on Saturday.

Sectarian slaughter peaked in 2006-2007 but deadly attacks have persisted while political tensions among Iraq's main Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish factions have increased since U.S. troops completed their withdrawal in December.

"I ask the government if security forces are capable of keeping control," a man named Ahmed Salim shouted angrily at the scene of a car bomb in Kirkuk. "With all these bloody bombs and innocent people killed, the government should reconsider its security plans," he told Reuters Television.

Trail of destruction
The security forces themselves were often the targets or victims of the assaults perpetrated across Iraq.

Gunmen using assault rifles and hand grenades killed at least 16 soldiers in an attack on an army post near Dhuluiya, 45 miles north of Baghdad, police and army sources said.

In Taji, 12 miles north of Baghdad, six explosions, including a car bombing, occurred near a housing complex. A seventh blast there caused carnage among police who had arrived at the scene of the earlier ones. In all, 32 people were killed, including 14 police, with 48 wounded, 10 of them police.

Two car bombs struck near a government building in Sadr City, a vast, poor Shiite swathe of Baghdad, and in the mainly Shiite area of Hussainiya on the outskirts of the capital, killing a total of 21 people and wounding 73, police said.

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Nine people, including six soldiers, were killed in attacks in the northern city of Mosul, police and army sources told Reuters.

In Kirkuk, five car bombs killed six people and wounded 17, while explosions and gun attacks on security checkpoints around the restive province of Diyala killed six people, including four soldiers and policemen, and wounded 30, police sources told Reuters.

Other deadly attacks occurred in the towns of Khan Bani Saad, Udhaim, Tuz Khurmato, Samarra and Dujail, all north of Baghdad, as well as in the southern city of Diwaniya.

The orchestrated spate of violence followed car bombs on Sunday in two towns south of Baghdad and in the Shiite shrine city of Najaf that killed a total of 20 people and wounded 80.

Last month was one of the bloodiest since the U.S. withdrawal, with at least 237 people killed and 603 wounded.

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Iraq, whose huge desert province of Anbar, a Sunni heartland, borders Syria, is nervous about the impact of the conflict in its neighbor where mainly Sunni rebels are fighting to end President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite-dominated rule.

Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis took refuge in Syria from bloodshed that lasted for years after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. Last week the Iraqi government urged them to return home to escape the violence in Syria.

20 unarmed men executed in Damascus, Syria activists say; battle begins for Aleppo

At least 80 buses laden with returning Iraqi refugees crossed the border last week, a U.N. spokeswoman said.

Iraq's Shiite-led government is also worried about the longer-term implications if Assad falls and Syria's majority Sunnis overthrow the supremacy of the president's Alawite sect, which traces its roots to Shiite Islam.

A sectarian struggle for control in post-Assad Syria could raise tensions across the border and damage Iraq's chances of overcoming its own formidable security and political challenges.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

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