By Carlos Rajo, Commentator, Telemundo

News analysis

Love him or hate him — and plenty of people in Venezuela and around the world felt one of the two emotions — firebrand President Hugo Chavez’s brand of leadership will be hard to replace.

Chavez died Tuesday at age 58, after a long battle with cancer that was shrouded in mystery and prevented him from being inaugurated for a fourth term.

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Beyond the country’s borders, question marks loom as to whether any regional leader will step into Chavez’s shoes and become the region’s voice of socialism and anti-Americanism.

Chavez, a self-declared socialist, often criticized the United States on its history of intervention in the Americas and Washington's stance on countries such as Iran.

In a 2006 address at the U.N. General Assembly, Chavez called President George W. Bush "the devil."

"The hegemonistic pretensions of the American empire are placing at risk the very existence of the human species," he said during the speech.

Such declarations gave voice to many wishing to shake-off perceived American dominance of Latin America.  His habit of using Venezuela’s vast oil wealth to help prop-up governments in the name of the "Bolivarian Revolution" — named after Simon Bolivar who led 19^th-century movements to end Spain’s colonial rule throughout Latin America — won him many friends.

He also supported cooperation among Latin American nations, and helped establish the Union of South American Nations, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas and the Bank of the South.

Nobody in power in the Americas has Chavez’s charisma or power to galvanize millions. More importantly, no other leader — even the ones that share his ideas like Ecuador’s Rafael Correa, Bolivia’s Evo Morales or Argentina’s Cristina Kirchner — has the resources and influence of a country such as Venezuela, which has the largest proven oil reserves in the world.

So while many Chavistas are saying "Long live to the King," it is not clear how long the king’s project will survive internationally. The same is the case within Venezuela, but more so.

According to Venezuela’s constitution, an election will need to be called within 30 days of Chavez’s death. Who the Chavistas choose to succeed "El Comandante" will help determine the future of the Bolivarian Revolution.

If Chavez’ will carries beyond the grave, Vice President Nicolas Maduro will be the candidate in the upcoming election. It isn’t only that the 50-year-old former Caracas bus driver and union organizer was appointed by Chavez as his successor, but also that he represents the closest thing to 'Chavismo' without Chavez. 

Preferred candidate
Maduro lacks Chavez’s charisma and popular appeal. At the same time, Maduro accepts all the tenants of Bolivarian socialism – a mix of authoritarianism, state owned enterprises and anti-U.S. rhetoric functioning under some form of democratic governance.

It is no coincidence that Maduro is the preferred candidate of Cuba, Chavez’s closest ally and supporter.

Maduro’s main opposition within his sphere is Diosdado Cabello, a former military officer and currently the President of the National Assembly. Cabello is as wooden publicly as Maduro, but he has the support of another major player in Venezuelan politics and Chavismo itself — the army.

The men in uniform may decide that it is time for a change of regime and not just a change in leader.  Under their influence, there could be a rapprochement with the business sector and thawing in relations with United States. 

Nevertheless, whoever ends up being the Chavistas’ candidate, and assuming he wins the election, the project may still be in danger: Venezuela is still dogged by inflation rates of between 5 and 30 percent a year, a large government deficit, alarming rates of urban violence, shortages in many goods and services, such as electricity, milk, meat and toilet paper. 

So even if the military accepts a Maduro presidency, it isn’t a given that they will support civilian leader to whom they see as too leftist and too close to the Cubans indefinitely. It is also possible that there will be infighting among the Chavistas’ civilian groups, both the politicians who are in charge of the state machinery and the "boligarchs," the moguls who have profited immensely with Chavez in power. 

The reaction of the Chavista popular bases is another potential problem. El Comandante won’t be there to convince them to wait for better times, to accept the shortages, inflation, insecurity and other realities of a dysfunctional and inefficient government.

But equally important, these sectors could become a threat to Chavez’s successor as many are more radical than their leaders...and some are armed.

Telemundo is NBC News' Spanish-language partner.

Related:

Venezuela's 'Comandante' Hugo Chavez dies

World leaders pay tribute to Hugo Chavez

Full Venezuela coverage from NBC News

 

 

 

 

 

By Carlos Rajo, Telemundo

News analysis

(Editor's note: An earlier version of this article led to a correction)

Raul Castro’s recent announcement that he will leave power in 2018, and his appointment of 52-year-old Miguel Diaz-Canel as first vice president and his de facto successor, are signs of the glacial pace of political change in Cuba.

Certainly, these announcements won’t satisfy those who for decades have been waiting for the Castro brothers’ exit.

Nevertheless, the move marks the beginning of the passing of the torch of power to a new generation.

For the first time in half a century, there is the real possibility that a person who did not fight in the Cuban Revolution will lead the country. Diaz-Canel was not even born when Fidel Castro overthrew Fulgencio Batista in January 1959. Since then, a Castro has been in power in Cuba: first the now-retired, 86-year-old Fidel, and from 2006 to now, his younger brother, Raul, 81.

This generational change does not mean that Cuba will move to a different political system. There is no going back to capitalism, Raul Castro told the National Assembly on Sunday. Nevertheless, the move toward a generational change must be seen in the context of other reforms implemented by the younger Castro.

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These reforms already are changing the face of Cuban socialism. Castro has introduced private farms, cooperatives in industries and activities outside agriculture, and an array of small business. Granted, these are restricted and heavily regulated, but still they are earning profits and starting to create a segment of wealthier, successful entrepreneurs. Cubans are also now allowed to sell houses and cars, and more recently, to travel abroad if they can get a visa from another country.

While little is known of Diaz-Canel’s ideology, it is likely that as the appointed Castro successor he is on board with the reforms.

The U.S. State Department reacted tepidly to Castro’s announcement and made clear that it would not be sufficient to prompt a lifting of the U.S. trade embargo. Although President Barack Obama doesn’t have election constraints in formulating a Cuba policy in his second term, the issue remains emotionally and politically charged in the U.S., and Congress is not likely to change its mind and lift the embargo while a Castro remains in power.

That doesn’t mean relations can’t change, however.

For instance, the Obama administration could remove Cuba from the list of states that sponsor terrorism. Cuba had been on that list since 1982, when it had the financial support of the Soviet Union and could afford to help guerrilla groups in Central and South America.

Cuba doesn’t have the resources to help armed groups - or even the political will to do so. Cuba is not Syria, North Korea or Iran in terms of being a threat to the U.S.

However, the lifting of the embargo is likely only after a period of more normal relations between the countries. There is also a legal obstacle: According to the Helms-Burton Act of 1996, the U.S. will recognize the legitimacy of a Cuban government only when someone other than a Castro is in power. For now, at least, it seems that won’t happen until 2018.

Demotions
The generational change in Cuba is real. Not only does Diaz-Canel take the place of the 83-year-old Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, but the composition of others organs of power is younger as well. Eighty percent of the members of the National Assembly were born after the revolution, and the average age of members of the Council of State is 57, with about 60 percent having been born post-revolution.

As is the tradition in Cuba, Diaz-Canel owes his influential position to one of the Castros -- in this case, Raul. As far back as 2003, the younger Castro talked about the “solid ideological firmness” of the electrical engineer, who also has served as a university professor and party boss in the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara and Holguin. Notably, Diaz-Canel served in the armed forces under Raul Castro and earned a reputation as a good manager of the military’s diverse commercial enterprises.

Diaz-Canel will have to be careful. There have been several young leaders who once looked like they had been chosen as a Castro successor but later fell from grace. In every case -- Roberto Robaina, Carlos Lague, Felipe Perez Roque -- they went from being the heir apparent to being suddenly demoted without much ceremony or explanation. The difference is that all were put in their positions of power by Fidel Castro and were demoted when they fell out of favor with him. Diaz-Canel is said to be Raul Castro’s favorite.

Assuming that nothing extraordinary happens before 2018, that Raul remains healthy and that there are no ideological purges – “corruption” is the favorite accusation of the Cuban leadership when it comes to making demotions --  the big question for Cuba, and for Diaz-Canel himself, is the success of Raul’s reforms.

If they work well, perhaps the regime will develop a sort of hybrid socialism-communism with a dynamic, state-controlled capitalist economy. Or maybe day by day the reforms will penetrate Cuban society and ultimately destroy one the few communist systems left in the world. Diaz-Canel, meanwhile, will start toying with the torch of power.

Only time will tell whether -- when the day comes in 2018 or sooner -- the Cuba that Diaz-Canel has known will still be there for him to rule.

Telemundo is NBC News' Spanish-language partner.

Related:

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Cuba's little capitalists venture into a budding economy

MIAMI – If there’s any woman in the world envied for her jewels and exceptional beauty, it’s Elizabeth Taylor. And this week the world was reminded of her wealth, her power and her ability to get the best out of men, including love and gems.

Christie’s sold a 55-carat pearl known as “La Peregrina,” a tear-shaped gem that Richard Burton gave Taylor in early 1969, for $11.8 million at auction on Tuesday evening.

By the time Burton bought it, “La Peregrina” had already spent centuries traveling from the hands of a slave to Spain, France and the United States in an intense bidding war between Spain’s Royals, France’s emperor’s family and America’s millionaires.

“It has become the most expensive pearl ever sold at auction,” Rahul Kadakia, head of Christie’s New York Jewelry Department, told Telemundo News.

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From Spanish royalty to Napoleon
La Peregrina was discovered in the early 1500s by an African slave at the Pearl Islands in the Gulf of Panama. Its name means “rare,” or “special,” and it was offered to King Phillip II of Spain, becoming part of the crown jewels of the Spanish Crown.

At the time it was valued at 714,000 maravedí, a gold and silver coin currency brought to Spain by the Moorish Almoravids, which would be the equivalent of $8,000 U.S. dollars today.

La Peregrina was inherited by Phillip III of Spain and it passed from generation to generation of Spain’s royals.  But in 1808, when Jose Napoleon was named king of Spain by his brother Emperor Napoleon, the jewels of the Spanish Crown fell into his hands, and La Peregrina was one of them.

Jose Napoleon stole them all and gave La Peregrina to his wife, Julie Clary, who proudly showed it until the day the marriage ended. Napoleon then took the jewel with him to the United States, where he lived in New York City and Philadelphia.

Napoleon bequeathed the jewel onto Napoleon III, the ruler of the second French empire, who, after his deposition in 1815 - and later arrest in France - was sent to England were he sold La Peregrina to James Hamilton, later the Duke of Abercorn.

The Duke bought the pearl for his wife, Louisa Hamilton, the Duchess of Abercorn, who lost it twice because the heavy jewel fell out of its necklace’s setting, but on both occasions the pearl was recovered.

According to Christie’s records, La Peregrina remained in the hands of the Abercorn until 1914.

Fast-forward to 1969, when it showed up at auction in Sotheby’s. Richard Burton and Taylor, who had married for the first time five years earlier, were both still enjoying the success of their movie “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Wolf,” which Taylor won her second Academy Award for. 

Burton, evidently still in love during that first marriage (the pair later divorced in 1974, remarried 16 months later in 1976 and divorced again), went to Parke-Bernet galleries, one of the largest auctioneers of fine art in the U.S, on Jan. 23, 1969. The auctioneer had already acquired by the rare pearl from Sotheby’s, and Burton wanted it for his bride.

But Burton had a strong opponent to bid against: Alfonso de Borbón Dampierre, an envoy of the Spanish royal family whose mission was to get the jewel back to Madrid´s Royal Palace.

Despite Dampierre´s credentials, he was outbid by Burton, who offered $17,000 over what the royal family was ready to offer and took it home at the final price of $37,000.

An unexpected thief
Burton gave it to his wife on Valentine´s Day, and as had happened a century before, one day the pearl went missing from the couples´ suite at Caesar´s Palace in Las Vegas.

“I reached down to touch La Peregrina and it wasn’t there,” Elizabeth Taylor wrote in her book “Elizabeth Taylor: My Love Affair With Jewelry.”

“I glanced over at Richard and thank God he wasn’t looking at me, and I went into the bedroom and threw myself on the bed, buried my head into the pillow and screamed. Very slowly and very carefully, I retraced all my steps in the bedroom. I took my slippers off, took my socks off, and got down on my hands and knees, looking everywhere for the pearl. Nothing.”

And then, she thought not her husband but someone else in the suite may have it.

“I just casually opened the puppy’s mouth and inside his mouth was the most perfect pearl in the world. It was – thank God - not scratched.”

Perfect and not scratched it was, indeed. And today, after years traveling from one continent to another, from slave, to kings, to emperors and millionaires, it lives in the hand of an unknown bidder who at $11.8 million has bought not only a pearl, but history in the shape of a tear.  
 

Read this story in Spanish from Telemundo

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