KABUL, Afghanistan -- Two American soldiers were killed Thursday in a shooting by an Afghan soldier and a literacy teacher at a joint base in southern Afghanistan, officials said, the latest in a series of deaths as anti-Americanism rises following the burning of Qurans by U.S. soldiers.

Both were killed on the same day that the top NATO commander allowed a small number of foreign advisers to return to work at Afghan ministries after more than a week of being locked down in secure locations because of the killing of two other Americans.

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Thursday's killings raised to six the number of Americans killed in less than two weeks amid heightened tensions over the Feb. 20 burning of Qurans and other Islamic texts that had been dumped in a garbage pit at Bagram Air Field near Kabul. More than 30 Afghans also were killed in six days of violent riots that broke out after the incident.

President Barack Obama and other U.S. officials apologized and said the burning was an accident, but that has failed to quell the anger.

"We are staying the course in Afghanistan," Pentagon Press Secretary George Little said today, adding that the strategy of partnering and working with Afghan National Security Forces "is not changing."

NYT: Quran burning outrage complicates US pullout

One of the gunmen was wearing civilian clothing and the other was believed to be a member of the Afghan army, the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said in a statement.

"Two individuals, one believed to be an Afghan National Army service member and the other in civilian clothing, turned their weapons indiscriminately against International Security Assistance Force and Afghan National Security Force service members in southern Afghanistan today," the statement said.

A senior defense official confirmed to NBC News that both of the NATO service members were American.

The Associated Press quoted a U.S. official as saying three attackers were believed to be involved, two of whom were subsequently killed. He said the third may be in custody. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the record.

A district chief in southern Kandahar's Zhari district said the shootings took place on a NATO base when an Afghan civilian who taught a literacy course for Afghan soldiers and lived on the base started shooting at NATO troops. Niaz Mohammad Sarhadi said the shootings occurred at 3 a.m. and that NATO troops returned fire and killed the man and an Afghan soldier.

Mohammad Mohssan, an Afghan Army spokesman in Kandahar city, confirmed the incident occurred at a base in Zhari and involved two Afghans, one of whom was a soldier, who opened fire on coalition troops from a sentry tower. He said both were killed.

The shootings on Thursday were the latest in a series of attacks by Afghan security forces — or militants disguised in their uniforms — against Americans and other members of the international alliance. Last month the Pentagon released data showing that 75 percent of the more than 45 insider attacks since 2007 occurred in the last two years.

More than 75 NATO ISAF troops have been killed by Afghan forces in the past 5 years.

They are likely to raise further questions about the training of Afghan security forces by coalition troops as foreign forces prepare to withdraw by 2014.

Afghanistan unrest stirs worries, but doesn't shake commitment

Hundreds of advisers were pulled out of ministries and other government locations after an Afghan gunman shot and killed two U.S. military advisers on Feb. 25 inside their office at the Interior Ministry. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the ministry shootings, saying they were conducted in retaliation for last week's Quran burnings, but no one has been arrested in the case.

An Afghan soldier also killed two U.S. troops in eastern Afghanistan on Feb. 23 during a protest over the Quran burnings.

U.S. military spokesman Lt. Col. Jimmie Cummings said Thursday that Marine Gen. John Allen, the top commander in Afghanistan, approved the return of selected personnel. He could not elaborate which ministries were involved, but an Afghan official said some had returned to a department setting up a government-run security force that will guard international development projects.

A NATO official said less than a dozen advisers had returned. Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Foreign advisers are key to helping improve governance and prepare Afghan security forces to take on more responsibility. The U.S. is already reducing its own troop presence by 30,000 at the end of the summer. Many of the remaining soldiers will switch from fighting to training and mentoring Afghan forces. 

NBC News' Courtney Kube, The Associated Press and msnbc.com staff contributed to this report.

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Updated at 5:36 p.m. ET: A gunman shot dead two American military officials inside the heavily guarded Afghan Interior Ministry in the center of the capital Kabul on Saturday in an alarmingly brazen attack, as protests raged across the country for a fifth day over the burning of the Muslim holy book at a NATO base.

The Americans, who were U.S. Army officers serving as advisers to the Afghan security forces, were sitting at their desks inside the government ministry building when they were killed, NBC News reported. They were shot in the back of the head, Western officials speaking on condition of anonymity told The Associated Press.

U.S. officials said the assailant — who has not been identified by name or nationality — remained at large and a manhunt was under way.

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Underscoring the gravity of the attack and apparent security breach, Gen. John Allen, the commander of NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, ordered all NATO personnel recalled from Afghan ministries "for obvious force protection reasons."

"We are investigating the crime and will pursue all leads to find the person responsible for this attack. The perpetrator of this attack is a coward whose actions will not go unanswered," Allen said in a statement.

The U.S. servicemen — a lieutenant colonel and a major — were found dead on the floor of an office that only people who know a numerical combination can get into, Afghan and Western officials told the AP.

"There is CCTV there and special locks. The killer would have had to have the highest security (clearance) to get to the room where they were killed," an Afghan security source told Reuters.

NATO spokesman Lt. Col Jimmie Cummings said "initial reports say it was not a Western shooter." He declined to provide further information.

In an e-mail sent to Western officials in Kabul from NATO headquarters, the attack was described as “green on blue,” which is the military term used here when Afghan security forces turn their weapons on their Western military allies, The New York Times reported.

The Afghan Taliban claimed that two of their fighters had managed to enter the building in Kabul and kill four "high-ranking U.S. advisers," according to NBC News. U.S. military officials confirmed only two deaths and the Taliban claim could not be independently verified. The Taliban often exaggerate claims of responsibility for terror attacks.

"Our suicide bomber Abdur Rahman along with another fighter managed to enter the interior ministry and open fire at the Americans. Before carrying out the suicide attack, Abdur Rahman told us on telephone that he had killed four high-ranking Americans. The second fighter successfully escaped the building and has joined his fighters now," the Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, said in a phone call to NBC from an undisclosed location.

He said it was revenge for the desecration of holy Quran by the U.S. forces.

In Washington, Pentagon press secretary George Little said Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was informed of the shooting Saturday morning. "This act is unacceptable, and the United States condemns it in the strongest possible terms," Little said.

He said Afghan Defense Minister Gen. Abdul Rahim Wardak called Panetta to apologize and to offer his condolences.

"Secretary Panetta appreciated the call and urged the Afghan government to take decisive action to protect coalition forces and curtail the violence in Afghanistan after a challenging week in the country," Little's statement said. "Minister Wardak said that President (Hamid) Karzai was assembling the religious leaders, parliamentarians, justices of the Supreme Court and other senior Afghan officials to take urgent steps to do so."

In Kabul, Allen met with Afghan Interior Minister Bismillah Mohammadi, who pledged "complete cooperation in investigating today's tragedy and in taking stronger measures to protect ISAF personnel," Little said.

President Barack Obama called Allen after Saturday's shootings and the White House said the president supported the steps taken to protect U.S. service members in Afghanistan.

"We welcome President Karzai's statement ... encouraging peaceful expressions, and his call for dialogue and calm. The United States remains committed to a partnership with the government and people of Afghanistan, as we work to realize our shared goal of disrupting, dismantling and defeating al-Qaida and strengthening the Afghan state," the White House statement added.

If the shootings are linked to Afghan forces, new questions will arise about Taliban infiltration as well as their ability to secure Afghanistan once NATO combat forces withdraw in 2014.

NATO is supposed to be moving away from a combat role to an advise-and-assist mission as early as next year. That will require NATO to place more staff in ministries.

"The fact that NATO is recalling staff from ministries suggests they are worried about a deep malaise in the Afghan security forces, that they expect more of these attacks," said Kamran Bokhari at STRATFOR global intelligence firm.

Quran protests
Saturday's attack comes as tensions between the Afghans and the Americans are high following the burning of copies of the Muslim holy book at a U.S. base that sparked days of deadly protests.

At least 28 people have been killed and hundreds wounded since Tuesday, when it first emerged that Qurans and other religious materials had been thrown into a fire pit used to burn garbage at Bagram Air Field, a large U.S. base north of Kabul. Among those dead were two U.S. soldiers who were killed Thursday by one of their Afghan counterparts while a riot raged outside their base in the eastern province of Nangarhar.

President Barack Obama and other U.S. officials apologized and said the burning of Qurans was a terrible mistake, but the incident has sent thousands to the streets in this deeply religious country.

In Kunduz, the capital of Kunduz province in northeast Afghanistan, more than 1,000 protesters demonstrated. At first they were peaceful, but as the protest continued they began throwing stones at government buildings and a U.N. office, said Sarwer Hussaini, a spokesman for the provincial police. He said the police were firing into the air to try to disperse the crowd.

The U.N. confirmed in a statement that its Kunduz compound was attacked, but said all its staff in Kunduz and in the country were unhurt and accounted for. The statement thanked Afghan security forces for their quick response to the assault.

NBC News' Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube and The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

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Amanda Knox's Italian lawyer has filed an appeal of her slander conviction in Italy, a family spokesman said Monday.

In October, an Italian appeals court overturned the young Seattle woman's murder conviction in the 2007 death of her British roommate in Perugia. But the same court upheld Knox's conviction for slander — for falsely accusing bar owner Diya "Patrick" Lumumba of involvement in the slaying.

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Lumumba was freed after two weeks in prison for lack of evidence.

Knox later said she was "manipulated" during her lengthy police interrogation.

Amanda Knox 'loves Italy' and might return

An appeal of the slander conviction was filed Monday, Knox family spokesman Dave Marriott confirmed. He doesn't know when the Italian court might consider it.

Knox returned to Seattle after her murder conviction was overturned. The former exchange student had been in custody since 2007.

In its ruling last fall, the Italian appeals court also acquitted Knox's then-boyfriend, Raffaele Sollecito, in the murder of Meredith Kercher.

A third defendant, Ivory Coast-born drifter Rudy Guede, was convicted in a separate trial of sexually assaulting and stabbing Kercher. His 16-year prison sentence — reduced on appeal from an initial 30 years — was upheld by Italy's highest court in 2010.

In a lengthy court document explaining the ruling that cleared Knox and Sollecito, presiding appeals court Judge Claudio Pratillo Hellmann wrote that Knox implicated Lumumba after hours of intense police questioning because "she was convinced that was what the police wanted her to do; to name a guilty person."

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Updated at 6:10 p.m. ET

President Barack Obama stopped short of calling the U.S. effort in Iraq a victory in an interview taped Thursday with ABC News' Barbara Walters.

"I would describe our troops as having succeeded in the mission of giving to the Iraqis their country in a way that gives them a chance for a successful future," Obama said.

Iraqi citizens offered a more pessimistic assessment. "The Americans are leaving behind them a destroyed country," said Mariam Khazim of Sadr City. "The Americans did not leave modern schools or big factories behind them. Instead, they left thousands of widows and orphans."

The Iraq Body Count website says more than 100,000 Iraqis have been killed since the U.S. invasion. The vast majority were civilians.

Updated at 10:58 a.m. ET

BAGHDAD --  U.S. forces formally ended their nine-year war in Iraq with a low-key flag ceremony in Baghdad on Thursday.

"After a lot of blood spilled by Iraqis and Americans, the mission of an Iraq that could govern and secure itself has become real," Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said at the ceremony at Baghdad's still heavily fortified airport.

• Vote: How would you describe the war in Iraq?

Almost 4,500 U.S. soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis lost their lives in the war that began with a "Shock and Awe" campaign of missiles pounding Baghdad and descended into sectarian strife and a surge in U.S. troop numbers.

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U.S. soldiers lowered the flag of American forces in Iraq and slipped it into a camouflage-colored sleeve in a brief outdoor ceremony, symbolically ending the most unpopular U.S. military venture since the Vietnam War of the 1960s and 70s.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and President Jalal Talabani were invited to the ceremony but did not attend.

In addition to the dead, the war left 32,000 Americans wounded and cost the U.S. more than $800 billion.

• PhotoBlog: Symbolism and souvenirs at ceremony

The remaining 4,000 American troops will leave by the end of the year.

Bombings are still common. Experts are also concerned about the Iraqi security force's ability to defend the nation against foreign threats.

However, Panetta said veterans of the conflict can be "secure in knowing that your sacrifice has helped the Iraqi people to cast tyranny aside."

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Some Iraqi citizens offered a more pessimistic assessment. "The Americans are leaving behind them a destroyed country," said Mariam Khazim of Sadr City. "The Americans did not leave modern schools or big factories behind them. Instead, they left thousands of widows and orphans."

Gen. Lloyd Austin, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also spoke during the ceremony.

• PhotoBlog: Troops head for home

Updated at 5:46 a.m. ET: Austin says Iraqis now have "unprecedented opportunities."

Updated at 5:42 a.m ET: "Since 2003, we have helped the Iraqi security forces grow from zero to 650,000-strong," Austin says.

Updated at 5:40 a.m. ET: Austin recalls how he was present when American forces secured the airfield where the ceremony is being held. "After 21 days of tough fighting, we ended Saddam Hussein's reign of terror," he adds.

Updated at 5:37 a.m. ET: Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, points out that the next time he visits Baghdad it will have to be at the invitation of the Iraqi government. "I kinda like that," he adds.

Updated at 5:32 a.m. ET: "This is not the end, this is the beginning," Panetta says. "May God bless Iraq, its people and its future."

Updated at 5:29 a.m. ET: "Let me be clear, Iraq will be tested in the days ahead -- by terrorism, by those who would seek to divide," Panetta says. "Challenges remain but the United States will be there to stand with the Iraqi people. We are not about to turn our backs on all that has been sacrificed and accomplished."

Updated at 5:26 a.m. ET: "Your sacrifice has helped the Iraqi people begin a new chapter in history, free from tyranny," Panetta says. "This outcome was never certain, particularly during the war's darkest days."

Updated at 5:23 a.m. ET: Panetta highlights the "heartbreak" of military families who watched their loved ones go off to war.

Updated at 5:18 a.m. ET: "It is a profound honor to be here in Baghdad," Panetta says at ceremony."No words, no ceremony can provide full tribute to the sacrifices that have brought this day to pass."

Updated at 5:16 a.m. ET: "We look forward to an Iraq that is sovereign, secure and self-reliant," US Ambassador to Iraq James Jeffrey says.

Published at 4:45 a.m. ET: After nearly nine years, 4,500 American dead, 32,000 wounded and more than $800 billion, U.S. officials prepared Thursday to formally shut down the war in Iraq — a conflict that U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said was worth the price in blood and money, as it set Iraq on a path to democracy.

Panetta stepped off his military plane in Baghdad Thursday as the leader of America's war in Iraq, but will leave as one of many top U.S. and global officials who hope to work with the struggling nation as it tries to find its new place in the Middle East and the broader world.

He and several other U.S. diplomatic, military and defense leaders will participate in a highly symbolic ceremony during which the flag of U.S. Forces-Iraq will officially be retired, or "cased," according to Army tradition.

During several stops in Afghanistan this week, Panetta made it clear that the U.S. can be proud of its accomplishments in Iraq, and that the cost of the bitterly divisive war was worth it.

"We spilled a lot of blood there," Panetta said. "But all of that has not been in vain. It's been to achieve a mission making that country sovereign and independent and able to govern and secure itself."

That, he said, is "a tribute to everybody — everybody who fought in that war, everybody who spilled blood in that war, everybody who was dedicated to making sure we could achieve that mission."

Panetta has echoed President Barack Obama's promise that the U.S. plans to keep a robust diplomatic presence in Iraq, foster a deep and lasting relationship with the nation and maintain a strong military force in the region.

As of Thursday, there were two U.S. bases and about 4,000 U.S. troops in Iraq — a dramatic drop from the roughly 500 military installations and as many as 170,000 troops during the surge ordered by President George W. Bush in 2007, when violence and raging sectarianism gripped the country. All U.S. troops are slated to be out of Iraq by the end of the year, but officials are likely to meet that goal a bit before then.

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The total U.S. departure is a bit earlier than initially planned, and military leaders worry that it is premature for the still maturing Iraqi security forces, who face continuing struggles to develop the logistics, air operations, surveillance and intelligence sharing capabilities they will need in what has long been a difficult neighborhood.

U.S. officials were unable to reach an agreement with the Iraqis on legal issues and troop immunity that would have allowed a small training and counterterrorism force to remain. U.S. defense officials said they expect there will be no movement on that issue until sometime next year.

Still, despite Obama's earlier contention that all American troops would be home for Christmas, at least 4,000 forces will remain in Kuwait for some months. The troops will be able to help finalize the move out of Iraq, but could also be used as a quick reaction force if needed.

Bombings and attacks have eased since American and Iraqi security forces weakened insurgents. But roadside bombs, car bombs and assassinations still kill and maim almost every day.

A frail economy, constant power shortages, scarce jobs and discontent with political leaders all fuel uncertainty among Iraqis.

"Thanks to the Americans. They took us away from Saddam Hussein, I have to say that. But I think now we are going to be in trouble," said Malik Abed, 44, a vendor at a Baghdad fish market. "Maybe the terrorists will start attacking us again."

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PAKTIKA, Afghanistan - Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, standing less than 34 miles from the Pakistan border, told U.S. troops Wednesday they have reached a turning point in the war, even as he demanded that Islamabad must do more to secure its side of the border.

Visiting with forces in Paktika, Panetta asserted that, "I really think that for all the sacrifices that you're doing, the reality is that it is paying off and that we're moving in the right direction ... We're winning this very tough conflict here in Afghanistan."

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However, his upbeat assessment of the war came against a backdrop of the eroding relations with Pakistan, which imposed a communications blackout on the U.S.-led coalition after NATO airstrikes killed two dozen Pakistani forces last month. And there has been an ongoing spate of high-profile attacks in Kabul and across the south, including one Wednesday that killed a local government official and two bodyguards in Helmand province.

• Story: US halts $700 million in aid to Pakistan, demands action on Taliban bombs

While U.S. officials have suggested that there may be some move to thaw the frigid tensions, Panetta made it clear that the U.S. still wants Pakistan to go after the insurgents who are launching attacks against U.S. forces from sanctuaries on that side of the border.

"Ultimately, we've got to make sure that if we're going to secure this country (Afghanistan), the Pakistanis better damn well secure their country as well," Panetta told the troops.

Panetta's visit to Paktika comes as the country's rugged east, where insurgents cross back and forth from lawless areas of western Pakistan, takes on increasing importance following the weakening of the Taliban in its southern heartland over the past 18 months.

"Are there challenges out there? You're damn right there are challenges," Panetta said. "Are we able to take on those challenges? You're damn right we are."

More work to do
The Pentagon chief has been meeting with his commanders in Afghanistan for two days, and also took time out to address a gathering of the diplomatic corps at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. There, he seemed to back away a bit from his contention that the war was being won.

Panetta stressed that there was more work to do, saying it was "not to say that this mission is by any means accomplished — it's not."

U.S. military leaders, meanwhile, echoed Panetta's view that they have seen progress both in the south — the heartland of the Taliban insurgency — as well as in the east. They acknowledge, though, that there will be tough fighting in the east next year as the U.S. works to reverse gains made by militants who find sanctuary on the Pakistan side of the border.

• Defense Secretary Leon Panetta visits Afghanistan amid rising violence

U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, who directs day-to-day military operations in Afghanistan, told reporters that he believes the Taliban have been handed a tactical defeat in the south, where troops now need to consolidate the gains. But he agreed that next year, as another 23,000 U.S. troops are pulled out of Afghanistan, the coalition and Afghan forces will have to make major gains in the east.

Scaparrotti and commanders in the east agreed that improved coordination with Pakistan is critical, and without improvement it will make the campaign in the region much more difficult next year.

On Tuesday, Marine Gen. John Allen, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, said that U.S. troops will begin to move into the advisory role next year, stepping back from their current counterinsurgency mission with Afghan forces. Over time, U.S. and NATO forces would provide training and guidance, air support, and other assistance as the Afghan troops take the lead.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

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CAMP LEMONIER, Djibouti - U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Tuesday that U.S. operations against al-Qaida are now concentrating on key groups in Yemen, Somalia and North Africa.

Panetta said efforts against the al-Qaida affiliates depend on American partnerships with countries like Djibouti, a key regional ally that hosts the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa, the only U.S. base in sub-Saharan Africa.

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"It's fair to say that the United States is intent on going after al-Qaida wherever they locate, and making sure they have no place to hide," said Panetta, who was making his first trip to Djibouti.

As the U.S. winds down operations in Iraq and begins its methodical withdrawal from Afghanistan, the U.S. military has increasingly focused on Africa — particularly the north, where insurgents have found sanctuary.

The military base in this tiny port nation is the launchpad for U.S. drones used for intelligence, surveillance and, at times, strikes against insurgents in terror hotspots.  The more than 3,000 U.S. service members assigned represent all U.S. military services, including 500 members of the National Guard, NBC News reported.

A senior defense official described the security situation in Djibouti as "quite dynamic," NBC News journalists traveling with Panetta reported.

"They have been very good partners, there when we need them. A tiny country in a very dangerous part of the continent," the official told NBC News.

U.S. officials have acknowledged that as the threat from al-Qaida leaders in Pakistan declines — largely due to U.S. strikes that have killed insurgents or kept them on the run — affiliated groups in Africa and Yemen have taken on more active and dangerous roles.

The worry is that militant groups — including al-Shabab in Somalia and al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen — operate out of safe havens in lawless countries.

"Our goal is to make sure that wherever they go, we go after them and make sure that they are not able to ever develop the kind of planning that would involve attacks on our homeland," Panetta told reporters traveling with him.

Panetta told U.S. troops stationed in Djibouti that he will visit Libya, becoming the first Pentagon chief to travel to the embattled country, which is emerging from an eight-month civil war. He said he will also travel to Iraq in the coming days for a ceremony marking the end of the U.S. military mission there after nearly nine years at war.

More militant connections?
Militants based in Somalia and Yemen have been at the heart of a number of deadly terror attacks in the region, and several near-misses in the U.S.

The Somalia-based al-Shabab, which is linked to al-Qaida, unleashed twin bombings in Kampala, Uganda, that killed 76 in 2010. The group is particularly worrisome because it has recruited dozens of Somali-Americans, particularly young men, to travel to Somalia and take up the fight.

On Christmas Day 2009, a Nigerian man tried to blow up an airliner over Detroit during a flight that originated from Lagos, Nigeria.

U.S. and European officials also worry that al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb — which operates in the west and north of Africa — is working to establish links with al-Shabab and the Nigerian group Boko Haram.

Panetta met with Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh as well as some of the U.S. troops based in the country.

U.S. defense officials said Djibouti is planning to deploy some troops to the Somalia mission, joining forces from Uganda and Burundi who are working to push al-Shabab back, particularly from key areas around the capital region.

Panetta's plan to visit Libya comes amid ongoing violence there, including recent clashes between revolutionary fighters and national army troops near Tripoli's airport.

Panetta said Libya reflects the ongoing changes in the region after the Arab Spring, and said the U.S. wants to help Libyans move in the right direction as the people take back their country. With military assistance from the U.S. and NATO, Libyans ousted and later killed longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi earlier this year.

NBC News, msnbc.com  and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Story updated 12pm ET/9am PT: President Obama welcomed Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to the White House Monday. Sitting side by side in the Oval Office, the two leaders posed briefly for cameras but did not make statements. They will hold a news conference together later.

Story published 6.30am ET/3.30am PT:

WASHINGTON - With the U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq in its final days, President Barack Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will meet at the White House Monday to discuss the next phase of the relationship between their countries.

They will have plenty to discuss.

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The withdrawal of all American troops on Dec. 31 marks the end of a nearly nine-year war that has been deeply divisive in both the U.S. and Iraq. While Obama and al-Maliki have pledged to maintain strong ties, the contours of the partnership between Washington and Baghdad remain murky, especially with Iran eager to assert influence over neighboring Iraq. And serious questions remain about Iraq's capacity to stabilize both its politics and security.

Yet the end of the war still marks a promise kept for Obama, one the White House is eager to promote. In addition to his meeting with al-Maliki, Obama will mark the milestone Wednesday when he speaks to troops at North Carolina's Fort Bragg. And he thanked service members and their families for their sacrifices when he attended the annual Army-Navy football game Saturday.

As of late last week, the number of U.S. troops in Iraq had dwindled to about 8,000, down from 170,000 at the war's peak in 2007.

• Story: NYT: Detainee in Iraq poses dilemma as US exit nears

Monday's meeting between Obama and al-Maliki is expected to focus heavily on how the U.S. and Iraq will continue to cooperate on security issues without the presence of American troops. Iraqi leaders have said they want U.S. military training help for their security forces but have been unable to agree on what type of help they'd like or what protections they would be willing to give American trainers.

The White House said Obama and al-Maliki would also discuss cooperation on energy, trade and education.

Obama and al-Maliki will also hold a joint news conference at the White House, then lay wreaths at Arlington National Cemetery, where some of the nearly 4,500 Americans killed in the Iraq war are buried.

 

Iranian influence could grow
Looming over the talks are concerns among U.S. officials over how Iraq's relationship with Iran will develop with a significantly smaller U.S. presence in the region.

Al-Maliki has insisted that Iraq will chart its future according to its own national interests, not the dictates of Iran or any other country. But some U.S. officials have suggested that Iranian influence in Iraq would inevitably grow once American troops depart. Both countries have Shiite majorities and are dominated by Shiite political groups. Many Iraqi politicians spent time in exile in Iran during Saddam's repressive regime, and one of al-Maliki's main allies — anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — is believed to spend most of his time in Iran.

Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said how Baghdad chooses to orient itself will significantly influence the future of Iraq's relationship with the U.S.

• Story: US on Iraq security: 'We really don't know what's going to happen'

"A lot of this really comes down to, what kind of role is Iraq going to play in regional security?" Alterman said. "Is it going to be a place where bad people come and go, or is it going to play a role in calming down a region that needs some calming down?"

The first hints as to how Iraq will assert itself in the region may come from how it handles the troubles in Syria, where a bloody government crackdown on protesters has killed more than 4,000 people, according to the United Nations.

The Obama administration has called for Syrian President Bashar Assad to step down. But Iraq has been much more circumspect, with al-Maliki warning of civil war if Assad falls and abstaining from Arab League votes suspending Syria's membership and imposing sanctions. Those positions align Iraq more closely with Iran, a key Syrian ally.

The U.S. has warned Iraq's neighbors that even though American troops are leaving, the U.S. will maintain a significant presence there. About 16,000 people are working at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, making it America's largest mission in the world.

Associated Press writer Rebecca Santana in Baghdad contributed to this report.

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - About 18 months before the Egyptian uprising that would doom Hosni Mubarak, a U.S. diplomatic cable was sent from Cairo. It described Mubarak as the likely president-for-life and said his regime's ability to intimidate critics and rig elections was as solid as ever.

Around the same time, another dispatch to the State Department came from the American Embassy in Tunisia. In a precise foreshadowing of the revolts to come, it said the country's longtime leader, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, had "lost touch" and faced escalating anger from the streets, according to once-classified memos posted by Wikileaks.

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So what was it? Was America blindsided or bunkered down for the Arab Spring?

The case is often made that Washington was caught flatfooted and now must adapt to diminished influence in a Middle East with new priorities. But there is an alternative narrative: that the epic events of 2011 are an opportunity to enhance Washington's role in a region hungry for democracy and innovation, and to form new strategic alliances.

Cost of 'Arab Spring' more than $55 billion - IMF

There is no doubt that Washington was jolted by the downfall of its Egyptian and Tunisian allies. The revolutions blew apart the regimes' ossified relationships with the U.S. and cleared the way for long-suppressed Islamist groups that eye the West with suspicion.

But declaring a twilight for America in the Mideast ignores a big caveat: The Persian Gulf. There are deep U.S. connections among the small but economically powerful and diplomatically adept monarchies, emirates and sheikdoms, which so far have ridden out the upheavals and are increasingly flexing their political clout around the Arab world.

The Gulf Arabs and America are, in many ways, foreign policy soul mates. Both share grave misgivings about Iran's expanding military ambitions and its nuclear program. The Gulf hosts crucial U.S. military bases — including the Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain — and is an essential part of the Pentagon's strategic blueprint for the Mideast after this year's U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.

In summary: America's influence took blows from the Arab Spring, but also remains hitched to the rising stars in the Gulf.

Transformation
"America has lost the predictability of friends like Mubarak," said Sami Alfaraj, director of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies. "But, at the same time, its allies in the Gulf are on the rise. So I would call it a shuffle for America. Maybe a step back in some places, but not in others."

Led by hyper-wealthy Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the Gulf rulers have stepped up their games in various ways as the region's political center of gravity drifts in their direction.

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NATO's airstrikes in Libya got important Arab credibility from warplane contributions by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The Gulf's six-nation political bloc also has tried to negotiate an exit for Yemen's protest-battered president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and has taken the lead in Arab pressures on Syria's Bashar Assad, one of Iran's most critical partners.

Yet the Gulf rulers' desire for change stops at their own borders. In March, they authorized a Saudi-led military force to help their neighbor, Bahrain, defend its 200-year-old unelected Sunni dynasty against pro-reform protests by the island's Shiite majority.

And here lies one of the paradoxes for U.S. statecraft in the Middle East: to align with rulers who are firmly vested in the status quo, but not be cast as the spoilers of the Arab uprisings.

"No one is immune from the waves of change," said Nicholas Burns, a former No. 3 official at the State Department. "There's certainly an effort to advise the Gulf Arabs to continue to get on the side of reform."

Burns believes the Arab Spring has taught U.S. diplomats valuable lessons in patience and perspective.

"We are witnessing something that is transformative and whose full impact will play out over years, maybe decades, ahead," said Burns, a professor of diplomacy and international politics at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. "Here is one of those times when the U.S. has to not overact and overreact."

But when events move fast, that may not be the easiest advice to follow. Mubarak was a loyal guardian of Egypt's groundbreaking 1979 peace treaty with Israel, and there is no certainty that whoever succeeds him will do likewise. Meanwhile, the Palestinians have overridden U.S. objections and asked the U.N. for statehood.

"Our ability to influence is limited today more than at any time in the last 35 years," said Graeme Bannerman, a former State Department analyst on Mideast affairs, at a conference in November co-sponsored by the United States Institute of Peace.

That assessment may have some traction in places such as in Tunisia or Egypt, where the U.S. is widely viewed as tainted by its long alliance with Mubarak. A burning U.S. flag is still a common sight in Cairo's Tahrir Square, epicenter of the Egyptian uprising.

'No longer Big Brother'
But ask about America's pull in other Mideast points — the free-spending Gulf, the new proto-state in Libya, even slow-healing Iraq and its Iran-friendly government — and the conversation is different. It is more measured about how the U.S. fits into the new Mideast. There is more talk about the arc of history rather than the latest sound bite.

"It's too early to tell whether U.S. influence has diminished or indeed any change will happen because the Arab Spring is still in process," said Nawaf Tell, former director of the University of Jordan Strategic Studies Center.

Tell sees the Arab Spring as the death rattle of the Arab revolutions and coups defined by the all-powerful state and embodied by winner-take-all leaders: Egypt's Gamal Abdel-Nasser (1954), Libya's Moammar Gadhafi (1969), the 1970 putsch in Syria that brought Hafez Assad to power in Syria and now a dynasty-in-peril under his son, Bashar, and so on.

"These regimes have exhausted their revolutionary credibility and have seen their legitimacy go bankrupt," Tell said. And as with any big unraveling, there are new rules in the aftermath.

This may mean a less privileged position for U.S. interests and more legwork for Washington's envoys, said Morris Reid, managing director of the Washington-based BGR Group, which works often in liaison roles between Mideast officials and U.S. companies.

The U.S. approach to the region "will be better," he said. "Not necessarily stronger."

"The U.S. will have to work harder for intelligence, diplomatic relations, commercial deals," said Reid after meetings in mid-November at the Dubai Airshow, where Boeing Co. made a slew of deals including a record $18 billion order from the fast-growing air carrier Emirates. "The U.S. will now have to prove their value as allies."

A showcase for that in the coming year is likely to be Iraq, and the contest for influence between neighboring Iran and the U.S. after U.S. military forces are gone. That rivalry in turn is influenced by events in Syria, Iran's main Arab ally, and the concerns of emirates and sheikdoms that lie just across the Persian Gulf from Iran.

"Look at it this way: If you accept that the Arab Spring is a once in a four- or five-generations moment, then, of course, it will reorder the entire game of influence and politics by the big powers," said Salman Shaikh, director of The Brookings Doha Center in Qatar.

"U.S. leadership does matter," he continued. "It's naive to say it will become irrelevant. But it's also wrong not to notice that America's era as the region's diplomatic superpower is coming to an end. The Arab Spring has brought much more independent-minded diplomacy by nations and a new empowerment among Arab people. America is a big player, but no longer Big Brother."

Associated Press writer Dale Gavlak in Amman, Jordan, contributed to this report.

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