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First for breaking news and analysis: Compelling world news stories from NBC News journalists. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

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  • 16
    May
    2012
    9:43am, EDT

    Report: Syria rebels get better weapons as US quietly boosts support

    Fadi Zaidan / AP

    In this Monday, May 14, photo, a girl walks past Syrian rebels at Khaldiyeh neighborhood in Homs province, central Syria.

    By msnbc.com and news services

    Updated at 1 p.m. ET: Syrian rebels battling President Bashar al-Assad's government are getting more and better weapons in an effort paid for by Persian Gulf nations and coordinated partly by the United States, the Washington Post reported late on Tuesday.

    The report cited opposition activists and U.S. and foreign officials.


    Obama administration officials emphasized the United States is not supplying or funding the lethal material, which includes anti-tank weapons, the report said.

    Instead, they said, the administration has expanded contacts with opposition military forces to provide the Gulf nations with assessments of rebel credibility and command-and-control infrastructure, the Post said.

    Opposition activists said the Syrian security forces have even opened fire on a funeral procession, killing at least 21 people. NBC's Ayman Mohyeldin reports.

    Syria violence spills into streets of Lebanon's Tripoli


    Follow @msnbc_world

    "We are increasing our non-lethal assistance to the Syrian opposition, and we continue to coordinate our efforts with friends and allies in the region and beyond in order to have the biggest impact on what we are collectively doing," said a senior State Department official, one of several U.S. and foreign government officials who discussed the evolving effort on condition of anonymity, the Post reported.

    Syria says dozens dead in twin Damascus blasts

    U.S. contacts with the rebels and the information-sharing with Gulf nations mark a shift in Obama administration policy as hopes dim for a political solution to the Syrian crisis, the Post said.

    Opposition activists speaking to the newspaper said that the flow of weapons increased significantly after Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others boosted the amount of money they would spend on the rebels.

    The killing has not stopped, leaving many to wonder if the peace plan has failed. NBC's Ayman Mohyeldin reports.

    Weapons and other material was being stockpiled in Damascus, near the Turkish border in Idlib and Zabadani near Lebanon, according to the Post.

    The Muslim Brotherhood in Syria claimed to have opened its own supply channel, Mulham al-Drobi, a member of the Brotherhood’s executive committee, told the newspaper. 

    U.K.-based Syrian opposition activist Abdul Wahab Omar said he would welcome increased supplies to the rebels' Free Syrian Army, but said he had not heard this was happening.

    “The (Free Syria Army) remains in my eyes as powerful, no more no less, as it was two months ago,” he told msnbc.com. “I haven’t seen any reports of new kinds of equipment on the ground.  I have heard what I’m used to hearing so far – the rebels continue to be in the position where they cannot yet pose a significant threat to the Assad regime.”

    Any indications that there were more weapons were likely due to the relative lull in activity, which meant that stockpiles weren’t being depleted as quickly, he added.

     Reuters contributed to this report. 

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    Follow us on Twitter: @msnbc_world


    74 comments

    I'm sure the White House asked the Washington Post to put this article out after the bad press the White House has been receiving from CNN for the past few days in regard to Syria. Where I might add they have been complaining about not receiving the weapons that were supposedly coming.

    Show more
    Explore related topics: syria, qatar, saudi-arabia, muslim-brotherhood, weapons, featured
  • 8
    May
    2012
    2:35pm, EDT

    Weapons on display at Special Forces expo in Jordan

    Ali Jarekji / Reuters

    Chinese officers check rifles of ARES Defense Systems, Inc from the U.S. at the opening of the Special Operations Forces Exhibition and Conference (SOFEX) at King Abdullah I Airbase in Amman May 8.

    Ali Jarekji / Reuters

    Jordanian special forces take part in a drill during a parade at the opening of the Special Operations Forces Exhibition and Conference (SOFEX) at King Abdullah I Airbase in Amman May 8.

    Khalil Mazraawi / AFP - Getty Images

    Fire billows from explosions during a military display by Jordanian special forces at the opening of the Special Operations Forces Exhibition and Conference (SOFEX) at King Abdullah I Airbase in Amman on May 8. The exhibition showcases the latest technologies by defence manufacturers around the world.

    Salah Malkawi / Getty Images

    A delegation official examines a gun during the 9th Special Operations Forces Exhibition and Conference (SOFEX) May 08, 2012 in Amman, Jordan. SOFEX brings together the defense industry and government and military leaders to investigate innovations in special operations technology and tactics.

     

    Follow @msnbc_pictures

    6 comments

    @hameed1 i think,not sure, that he was referring to the typical bag over the head we see when your friendly neighborhood sandmonkeys murder a journalist and broadcast it as glorious, and obtw i have "visited" those places when i was a dependent minor in a military family.

    Show more
    Explore related topics: jordan, weapons, special-forces, world-news
  • 30
    Mar
    2012
    7:38pm, EDT

    Lebanon awash with weapons vital to Syrian uprising

    Since the Syrian crisis broke out, the price of weapons has exploded in neighboring Lebanon. ITN's John Ray meets the rebels buying the weapons and the dealers selling them.

    By msnbc.com staff

    Equipped with rifles and handguns, Syrian rebels have faced a superior enemy armed with tanks and artillery shells for months. But even as many have retreated over the border with Lebanon to train for guerrilla raids, they tell ITN's John Ray they are not considering surrender or ceasefire.

    It's victory or martyrdom, they tell Ray.

    "We need weapons, armor-piercing weapons," one masked rebel says.


    In Beirut, there is no shortage of weapons from dealers with global connections. Since the Syrian crisis broke out, the price of weapons has exploded, a dealer tells Ray, but these weapons continue to be vital to the Syrian uprising.

    And rebels are determined to obtain these weapons at all cost, even as some dealers say they're forbidden to sell to rebels.

    ITN's John Ray contributed to this report.

    More from msnbc.com and NBC News:

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    Follow us on Twitter: @msnbc_world

    26 comments

    here you go the rebels saying thet do not want to stop the fighting and ANNAN telling the ASSAD army they need to stop now , what a deal i will shoot at you and you cannot shoot back because the UN said you cannot . BS if you ask me .

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    Explore related topics: lebanon, syria, weapons, assad, john-ray
  • 14
    Mar
    2012
    10:02am, EDT

    In 'highly unusual' move, Marines asked to disarm before Leon Panetta speech

    Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's message to troops Wednesday was to stay the course. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

    By NBC News and msnbc.com staff

    In a highly unusual move, around 200 U.S. Marines were asked to leave their weapons outside the tent where U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was set to speak during his trip to Afghanistan on Wednesday.

    Although the military said the order was not given in response to Sunday's shooting of 16 Afghan civilians allegedly by an American soldier, it possibly underlined how high tensions were running after the incident.


    "You've got one of the most important people in the world in the room," Maj. Gen. Mark Gurganus told reporters at Camp Leatherneck, dismissing concerns related to the shooting. "This is not a big deal."

    He said he had given the order because the two dozen Afghan soldiers also there were unarmed and he did not want to treat them differently.

    Chris Turner / Pool

    Troops stacking guns at Camp Leatherneck, Afghanistan before the arrival of U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Wednesday.

    Among those killed Sunday were nine children, and some of the bodies were reportedly burned. The suspect, who hasn't been named, is in U.S. custody.

    According to reporters at Camp Leatherneck, the Marines were waiting to hear Panetta's speech when they were abruptly told by their commander to get up, leave their weapons, including M16 and M-4 automatic rifles and 9 mm pistols, outside and return unarmed.

    "All I know is I was told to get the weapons out," Sergeant Major Brandon Hall told The New York Times. Asked why, he replied, "Somebody got itchy, that's all I've got to say. Somebody got itchy; we just adjust."

    Hall said he was acting on orders from superiors, the Times reported.

    Just days after an Army staff sergeant allegedly killed 16 Afghan civilians in a shooting rampage, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta visited Afghanistan to meet with government officials and U.S. troops. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

    'Sends the wrong message'
    Military officials in Washington told NBC News' chief Pentagon correspondent Jim Miklaszewski that the decision to disarm the Marines was indeed significant.

    Panetta: Village massacre won't deter US mission

    "It sends the wrong message" that Marines can't be trusted in the presence of the secretary of defense," one told him.

    U.S. officials told Marines to leave a tent and disarm themselves before re-entering for a meeting with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. NBC's Atia Abawi and Jim Miklaszewski report.

    According to one official the decision was "stupid."

    Miklaszewski also told NBC's Chuck Todd Wednesday that the move was "highly unusual" and that Marines in combat zones are always supposed to have weapons within their reach.

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    • China's super rich snapping up European vineyards

    Follow us on Twitter: @msnbc_world

    NBC News' Jim Miklaszewski and msnbc.com staff contributed to this report.

    1181 comments

    So now our Defense Secretary just publicly showed that he felt these 200 marines were a threat to his safety. This is despicable behaviour.

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    Explore related topics: afghanistan, marines, massacre, weapons, featured, panetta, panjwai
  • 6
    Mar
    2012
    8:07am, EST

    10 companies profiting most from war

    Lockheed Martin / Getty Images

    The F-22 Raptor is among the many military products made by Lockheed Martin

    By Michael B. Sauter and Charles B. Stockdale, 24/7 Wall St.

     

    Global sales of arms and military services by the 100 largest defense contractors increased in 2010 to $411.1 billion, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The increase reflects a decade-long trend of growing military spending. Since 2002, total arms sales among the 100 largest arms manufacturers have increased 60 percent.

    The institute recently published its annual report on the leading arms producing companies in the world -- SIPRI Top 100. The report identifies the largest companies in the sector and provides each company’s arms sales as a percentage of its total sales. Based on the report, 24/7 Wall St. identified the 10 companies with the highest revenue from arms sales. These companies alone account for $230 billion -- over half of all arms sales that year.

    While many industries continued to suffer in 2010 as a result of the financial crisis, leaders in the arms and military services were largely unaffected. According to SIPRI arms industry expert Susan Jackson, when sales dropped, it was not because of the financial crisis. Instead, Jackson notes that loss in sales was due to “the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq and the subsequent expected decrease in related equipment sales.”

    The composition of the 10 largest manufacturers reflects the state of modern warfare. More and more, battles are fought remotely through air surveillance and strikes rather than on-the-ground combat. As a consequence, seven of the 10 largest companies are among the leading aerospace companies. Surveillance and battlefield communications also are increasingly important in modern warfare. All of the companies in the top 10 have significant electronics divisions.

    Of the 100 companies on the list, 44 are based in the U.S., including Boeing, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. The American companies account for more than 60 percent of arms sales revenue of the 100 manufacturers. Seven of SIPRI’s top 10 are American, one is British, one is Italian and one is a multinational EU conglomerate. The U.S. federal government has contract deals with all seven American companies. These seven are among the top 10 U.S. federal contractors by amount procured, according to the government’s Federal Procurement Data System.

    24/7 Wall St.: The 10 most expensive weapons in the world 

    24/7 Wall St.’s analysis of the SIPRI 100 includes revenue for arms sales for 2007, 2009 and 2010, as well as percentage of company revenue from arms sales, employees, industry and applicable military division. 24/7 Wall St. also included history of each company and notable weapons systems manufactured.

    These are the companies profiting most from war.

    1. Lockheed Martin 

    • Arms sales 2010: $35.73 billion
    • Total sales 2010: $45.80 billion
    • Arms sales as pct. of total sales: 78 percent
    • Total profit: $2.93 billion
    • Total employment: 132,000
    • Sector: Aircraft, Electronics, Missiles, Space

    Lockheed Martin is the largest arms-producing and military services company in the world, with nearly $3 billion more in arms sales than second place BAE Systems. Although military sales make up the majority of its revenue, it is significantly less than many other major arms-producers, including BAE’s 95 percent share. In addition to being the world’s largest arms-seller, Lockheed is also the largest federal contractor in the U.S. by a large margin. In 2010, the company’s government contracts totaled nearly $36 billion. Lockheed produces a number of major products, including the Trident missile and the F-16 and F-22 fighter jets. Despite being the largest military service company on this list, Lockheed is only the fourth-largest company by overall sales among the companies featured on this list. In 2007, the Lockheed was the third-largest arms producer.

    2. BAE Systems

    • Arms sales 2010: $32.88 billion
    • Total sales 2010: $34.61 billion
    • Arms sales as pct. of total sales: 95 percent
    • Total profit: $1.67 billion
    • Total employment: 98,200
    • Sector: Aircraft, Artillery, Electronics, Missiles, Military vehicles, Small arms/ammunition, Ships

    BAE Systems is an aerospace and defense contractor based in the UK. The company has a major U.S. subsidiary, BAE Systems, Inc., which by itself would be the seventh-largest weapons manufacturer in the world. The British company was formed in 1999 through the merger of Marconi Electronics (which was at the time a subsidiary of GE) and British Aerospace. BAE produces weapons systems in nearly every major military category, including aircraft, defense electronics, vehicles, naval vessels and small arms. Among the company’s notable contributions are the M2/M3 Bradley fighting vehicle, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the Type 45 destroyer and the Astute-class nuclear submarine. In 2010, 95 percent of its revenue came from arms sales, $32.88 billion in all.

    3. Boeing 

    • Arms sales 2010: $31.36 billion
    • Total sales 2010: $64.31 billion
    • Arms sales as pct. of total sales: 49 percent
    • Total profit: $3.31 billion
    • Total employment: 160,500
    • Sector: Aircraft, Electronics, Missiles, Space

    As recently as 2007, Boeing was the largest arms producer in the world. By 2008, it had fallen behind Lockheed Martin and U.K.-based BAE Systems. The aerospace and defense company remains one of the largest in the world, however. Boeing is the second-largest aircraft producer in the world by deliveries, behind only Airbus. It is also the second-largest U.S. government contractor, procuring just under $19.5 billion in contracts in 2010. Major products produced by the company include the KC-767, an aerial refueling tanker, and the F-15 fighter jet. Boeing made less in arms sales in 2010 than it did in 2009, although arms sales made up a larger amount of total sales -- two percentage points, to be exact -- in 2010 compared to 2009. Even in 2010, however, only 49 percent of revenue came from arms sales, which is among the lowest rates among companies on this list.

    A24/7 Wall St.: Eight reasons gas will hit $5 this year

    4. Northrop Grumman 

    • Arms sales 2010: $28.15 billion
    • Total sales 2010: $34.76 billion
    • Arms sales as pct. of total sales: 81 percent
    • Total profit: $2.05 billion
    • Total employment: 117,100
    • Sector: Aircraft, Electronics, Missiles, Ships, Space

    Northrop Grumman is the fourth-largest weapons contractor in the U.S. The company, which is based in Falls Church, Va., is one of the leaders in aerospace technology and the leading producer of naval vessels in the world. The company manufactures Nimitz-class carriers that are the current flagships of the U.S. Navy. And over the next few years it is also set to build the new, $9.7 billion Gerald R. Ford-class supercarriers. Northrop Grumman also develops radar systems for aircraft and ground defense, sensor systems for a variety of vehicles and several unmanned aircraft and drones. Weapons systems sales accounted for 81 percent of company revenue in 2010. Arms sales grew by approximately $3.5 billion between 2007 and 2010.

    24/7 Wall St.: Nine States Closing the Most Mail Centers 

    5. General Dynamics

    • Arms sales 2010: $23.94 billion
    • Total sales 2010: $32.47 billion
    • Arms sales as pct. of total sales: 74 percent
    • Total profit: $2.62 billion
    • Total employment: 90,000
    • Sector: Artillery, Electronics, Military vehicles, Small arms/ammunition, Ships

    General Dynamics is an American defense company that deals in aerospace, combat systems, information systems and technology, and marine systems. Although the company has been around since 1952, it has enjoyed a resurgence beginning in the 1990s, thanks largely to a number of mergers. Since 1997 General Dynamics says it has acquired more than 50 companies. Over this same period, its revenue increased from $4 billion to more than $32 billion. It also added more than 60,000 employees to its workforce. Currently, 74 percent of the company’s sales are arms sales. General Dynamics owns Electric Boat and Bath Iron Works, two of the largest naval vessel builders in the world. General Dynamics is notable known for its Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine, the Seawolf-class submarine, the M1 Abrams tank and the Arleigh-Burke-class destroyer.

    Click here to read the rest of the companies profiting the most from war.

     

    34 comments

    And that's why these companies can spend so much money bribing our elected officials via lobbying efforts to keep the war profits rolling in.

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    Explore related topics: war, arms, weapons, featured
  • 24
    Feb
    2012
    10:43am, EST

    Rebels plead for weapons to make their vision of post-Assad Syria happen

    International pressure is mounting on Syrian leader Bashar Assad, as diplomats from about 80 nations gather in Tunisia to discuss the crisis. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

    By msnbc.com staff and news services

    The main opposition Syrian National Council outlined on Friday its vision for a post-Assad Syria, and appealed for the weapons required to make that happen.

    The SNC announced it was proposing an interim presidential council of national leaders and a truth and reconciliation committee at a meeting of the “Friends of Syria” group of 70 Western and Arab nations in Tunisia Friday.


    Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said ahead of the meeting that rebel fighters would become “increasingly capable,” saying they will “from somewhere, somehow, find the means to defend themselves as well as begin offensive measures."

    And, in her opening remarks to the conference, Clinton said the regime of President Bashar Assad had "ignored every warning, squandered every opportunity and broken every agreement."

    The Friends of Syria group is demanding an immediate cease-fire so humanitarian aid can be delivered to Syrians who have suffered under a yearlong assault, especially those in the city of Homs, which has been under bombardment for three weeks.

    "If the Assad regime refuses to allow this life-saving aid to reach civilians, it will have ever-more blood on its hands," Clinton said, noting the same was true of nations like Russia and China, which are supporting Assad.

    Clinton: Syria rebels will get arms 'somehow'

    According to a copy of his speech to the meeting, SNC leader Burhan Ghalioun called for the continuation of the uprising until Assad was ousted or handed over power as per an Arab League plan.

    BBC News reported that the SNC said countries should be allowed to supply arms to aid rebel fighters if President Bashar Assad’s government refuses to stop attacking civilians and accept the terms of an Arab League peace deal.

    Red Cross tries to help injured reporters in Homs, Syria

    However a Syrian opposition source told Reuters on Friday that Western and other countries were already turning a blind eye to weapons purchases by Syrian exiles.

    The source said exiles were already smuggling light arms, communications equipment and night vision goggles to rebels inside Syria.

    While speaking to a group in London on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton discusses the violent situation in Syria and the future of President Bashar Assad.

    Syrian opposition supporters were also trying to find ways to bring anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons to the Free Syrian Army, which is composed mainly of Syrian soldiers who have defected and volunteer civilians, the source added.

    Hamas ditches Assad
    The Hamas prime minister of Gaza Ismail Haniyeh said after Friday prayers at Egypt's Al-Azhar Mosque that Hamas commends "the brave Syrian people that are moving toward democracy and reform."

    Assad has long hosted and supported leaders of the Islamic militant movement, which rules the Gaza Strip, but the group has significantly reduced the presence of its exiled leaders in Syria since the start of the 11-month-old uprising against the Syrian regime.

    Some of the top Hamas leaders are now spending most of their time in Qatar, Egypt and Lebanon, as the group tries to distance itself from Assad's brutal crackdown on opponents.

    As efforts were being made to get weapons to the rebels, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called on the world to find ways to deny the Syrian government "the means with which to perpetrate atrocities against the Syrian people."

    "We must seek ways and means of enforcing an arms embargo upon the regime," Davutoglu told the Friends of Syria meeting Friday.

    Syrian rebels have tried to fight back, but they are losing the battle after being outnumbered and outgunned. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

    There was drama as the conference got under way at the Palace Hotel in Tunis, when several hundred pro-Assad protesters breached the grounds, forcing Clinton to be diverted to her hotel and delaying her appearance at the meeting. Police wielding batons stopped them getting inside the hotel itself and drove them out the parking lot after about 15 minutes.

    GOP rivals back arming Syria's rebels

    According to the copy of his speech, Ghalioun said that after Assad was gone there should be the "formation of a presidential council composed of national leaders and the formation of a transitional government of political, military and technocratic figures who have not fought against the revolution."

    NYT: US should help Syria rebels, McCain says

    He also proposed the creation of a council that would address the abuses of the Assad regime and prevent any political or sectarian reprisals.

    "The committee will work to reconcile and restore the sense of nationalism and human values that have been lacking during this crisis," he said. The transitional period would end with elections to a parliament that would draw up a new constitution.

    NYT: As others isolate Syria, Chavez ships fuel to it

    Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani said in a speech at the meeting Friday that an Arab force should be created to impose peace in Syria and allow aid to get in.

    "There is a need to create an Arab force and open humanitarian corridors to provide security to the Syrian people," he said.

    Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

    More from msnbc.com and NBC News:

    • Australia's 'dingo baby' mystery finally solved?
    • Beijing's pollution could cut 5 years off lifespan, expert says
    • Clinton: Syria rebels will get arms 'somehow'
    • NBC's Kabul correspondent discusses Quran outrage
    • Actress Lucy Lawless boards ship to protest Arctic oil drilling
    • Hacked arms and legs display the despair of Somalia
    • Michael Jordan sues for control of his name in China
    • Ancient Maya doom teaches climate lesson
    • US pro-democracy worker stopped at Egypt airport

    313 comments

    Excellent! So, does that mean the countries that we do support, including Qatar, should have free democratic governments, as well. Or, are we just being selective and hypocritical in our foreign policy? Hmm.. Don't care about Syria.

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    Explore related topics: syria, arms, weapons, reconciliation, truth, featured, syrian-national-council, friends-of-syria
  • 20
    Jan
    2012
    7:49am, EST

    Moammar Gadhafi had undeclared chemical weapons, monitors say

    David Sperry / AP, file

    Chemical containers are seen at an unguarded storage facility in the desert, about 62 miles south of Sirte, Libya.

    By msnbc.com staff and news services

    International inspectors have confirmed that late Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi had an undeclared stockpile of chemical weapons, the organization that oversees a global ban on such armaments announced Friday.

    The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said inspectors who visited Libya this week found sulfur mustard and artillery shells "which they determined are chemical munitions," meaning the shells were not filled with chemicals, but were designed specifically to be loaded with chemical weapons.


    "They are not ready to use, because they are not loaded with agents," OPCW spokesman Michael Luhan said.

    He would not divulge the amounts of chemicals in the previously unknown stockpile, except to call it "a fraction" of what Gadhafi disclosed in the past.

    Libya's interim leaders declare independence from 42 years of rule by Moammar Gadhafi, whose cause of death remains under investigation. NBC's Adrienne Mong reports.

    Libya's new rulers told the Hague-based organization about the chemicals last year after toppling Gadhafi from power. The longtime Libyan strongman was killed in October after being captured by rebel fighters.

    The newly confirmed chemical armaments are stored at the Ruwagha depot in southeastern Libya together with chemical weapons that Gadhafi had declared to international authorities in 2004 as he tried to shake off his image as an international pariah and rebuild relations with the West.

    He declared his regime had 27.6 tons of sulfur mustard and 1,543 tons of precursor chemicals used to make chemical weapons. His regime also declared more than 3,500 unfilled aerial bombs designed for use with chemical warfare agents such as sulfur mustard, and three chemical weapons production facilities.

    Those stockpiles were being destroyed until a technical problem halted destruction last year at the same time as the popular uprising began that led to Gadhafi's ouster and death.

    Rebels reportedly protect Moammar Gadhafi's son, Seif al-Islam, from angry mobs after he is captured without a fight in Libya. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

    Libya was to have completed destruction of its chemical weapons by April 29 of this year, under the terms of an international treaty, but can no longer meet the deadline after the turmoil that roiled the country last year. The country's new government now has until that date to file a plan and proposed completion date for destroying its entire chemical weapon stockpile.

    The BBC reported that other countries were also behind  in meeting the terms of the international treaty. It said the US has acknowledged it will take as long as 2021 to finish destroying the final 10 percent of its chemical weapons. Russia is farther behind in its effort, having destroyed only about 48 percent of a large cache of chemical weapons, the OPCW has said.

    More from msnbc.com and NBC News:

    • Will Prince William's tour of duty reignite Falklands dispute?
    • Fun in Mogadishu? Yes, it happens
    • Malawi women protest stripping attacks over wearing trousers
    • Chinese dissident flees to US and describes torture

    The Associated Press and msnbc.com staff contributed to this report.

    71 comments

    So that's where Saddam hid the WMDs. LOL

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    Explore related topics: libya, defense, weapons, featured, gadhafi
  • 3
    Jan
    2012
    6:06pm, EST

    Will Iran make good on its threat against US?

    Iran warned U.S. aircraft carrier Stennis not to return to the Persian Gulf, but U.S. officials rejected the threat. NBC's Jim Miklaszewski has more.

    By Sevil Omer, msnbc.com

    Should the United States blink with Iran? Tehran has warned Washington against returning an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. The White House contends Tehran’s threat is just an attempt to deflect attention from the Islamic republic’s domestic problems and says the Navy will continue operations in the Gulf.

    What happens next?

    We turned to Graham T. Allison, a leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy in nuclear weapons and terrorism at Harvard, and Qamar-ul Huda, a scholar of Islam and theology, from the U.S. Institute of Peace. In emails to msnbc.com, they shared some thoughts on Iran's war of words -- and the possibility of an escalation.

    Belfer Center

    Graham T. Allison of the Belfer Center.

    Iran has threatened to take military action if the U.S. keeps sending aircraft carriers into the Gulf. What is the probability Iran would make good on its threat?

    ALLISON: Low. Iran must be aware that the U.S. will continue to send aircraft carriers into international waters regardless of Iranian threats, and that any direct military confrontation would not end well for Tehran. However, we face the risk of unauthorized or low-level skirmishes between U.S. and Iranian naval forces escalating into a broader conflict. 

    HUDA: In March 2007, Iran captured 15 British sailors and marines from the Strait of Hormuz, and the government allowed the British embassy to be ransacked by protesters. Since the November 2011 United Nations report found that Iran has worked and may be working on attaining nuclear weapons, the United States and its allies are pressing harder to enforce sanctions against Iran. Essentially, relations with Iran have gone from bad to worse in a matter of five months.

    Courtesy Qamar-ul Huda

    Qamar-ul Huda of the U.S. Institute of Peace.

    If the recent past is any indicator of events, Iran's threats must be taken seriously. A military attack by Iran against the U.S. would have a devastating strategic consequence for Iran. About less than 25 percent of U.S. imported oil comes from the Gulf region; however, China's oil supplies would be significantly threatened by a military conflict.

    Iran's threats are not only directed at the U.S., but to the already unstable global economy. With the uncertainty of EU financial industry and U.S.'s weak economy, Iran is using this moment to test Western interests in the region.

    What does Iran have to gain from a military confrontation with the U.S.?

    ALLISON: It is certainly not in the rational self-interest of the Iranian state to provoke a confrontation with America, whose military dwarfs that of Iran. However, it is likely that certain elements within the regime would welcome such a confrontation, as they feel that American military action could bolster support for their government and distract the Iranian people from growing economic problems.

    HUDA: Iran's military confrontation with the U.S. allows them to rein in dissenters, reformers and liberals, and embolden the power of the hardliners in Iran, namely the Revolutionary Guard institutions. Iranian hardliners welcome an escalation of conflict with the U.S. and the West because it allows them to consolidate their internal power. The elite of hardliners are still from the 1979 revolution period, and they understand that an anti-Western narrative is their core asset. With the recent shooting down of a U.S. spy drone near the Iran-Afghanistan border, and the capture of an [alleged] Afghan-American spy in Iran, Iranian hardliners in the government are trying to deflect the nuclear issue and simultaneously make a case of preventing a U.S.-led confrontation. Internally, Iran is using recent political events, including the Arab Spring protests, as justification to defend national sovereignty.

    Iran has purchased from the Chinese and Russians sophisticated midget submarines, mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, and a fleet of small fast boats capable of naval warfare. Knowing their asymmetric  military power, and visible soft power in the Middle East, Iran will promptly leverage their power against Western interests.  

    What does the U.S. have to gain from a military confrontation with Iran?

    ALLISON: Although some argue that U.S. military action against Iran would be a relatively painless way to delay its nuclear program and maybe even inspire a popular uprising, my best judgment is that an attack is as likely to advance the date on which Iran tests a bomb as to delay it. A military confrontation with Iran would also overturn the chessboard in the Middle East, making America (and Israel) the issue for most of the people in the street and risk retaliation that could bring about a wider regional war. 

    HUDA: The U.S. maintains that their military exercises are according to international maritime conventions and for the security of the region. By moving forward to counteract Iranian threats, the U.S. reassures their allies of their commitment to the region, and more importantly, it bolsters the U.S.-Gulf states alliance of limiting Iranian aggression. While a military escalation with Iran will lead to a deeper cold war with Iran, there is no other way to ensure that Iran will draw back. 

    Allison is the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard's John F. Kennedy Center of Government. For three decades, he has been a leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy with a special interest in nuclear weapons, terrorism and decision-making. He served as assistant secretary for The U.S. Department of Defense in the first Clinton Administration.

    Huda is a senior program officer in the Religion and Peacemaking Center and scholar of Islam at U.S. Institute of Peace. He teaches conflict resolution, Islamic theology, Islam and Western studies at Georgetown University.

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